2 Down, What’s Next?

276 Comments

7:30AM

The second in a series of low pressure systems has moved through, producing a fair amount of rain during the day Thursday, mixing with and changing to some snow especially west and north of Boston, though some snow did make it into Boston as well. Snowfall amounts Thursday evening ranged from a coating to 3 inches with heaviest amounts in the hills of Worcester County.

A more significant storm now threatens for Saturday, especially Saturday night. This is what I had been referring to as storm #3 on previous posts. I’d been in the thinking that this storm would stay far enough south to just brush the area, but it looks like it will come close enough to bring a short-lived but significant impact “pre-season” winter storm.   This system will bring rain to mixed precipitation and possibly snow along the coast, starting as a mix and going to mainly snow over inland areas. The exact impact will be determined by the precipitation type and exact track of low pressure. There may be a swath of record-setting snowfall and considerable tree damage (most likely northwestern Middlesex County and Worcester County).

Still some room to tweak if needed.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 44-49. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 29-34. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain developing from south to north during the afternoon except rain or snow in the 495 belt. High 43-48. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain coast, mix of snow/rain 95 belt, snow 495 belt … changing to mostly snow except mixed near the coast. Several inches of wet snow accumulation especially inland (from a maximum around 6 inches in higher elevations near the 495 belt north of the Mass Pike to a slushy inch or less toward the coast. Low 30-35.  Wind E 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH, shifting to N.

SUNDAY: Clearing. High 42-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

MONDAY – HALLOWEEN: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 50.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 55.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 60.

THURSDAY: PM showers. Low 50. High 65.

276 thoughts on “2 Down, What’s Next?”

  1. Thanks TK!

    I think anywhere 20 miles or so away from the coast will be looking at a historic snowstorm for this time of year. I think the coast will end getting off pretty easy unless the storm goes under serious cyclogensis and draws in some real cold air. If this was a month from now we would be talking about 2 feet of snow everywhere!!

  5. HPC thinking about the coastal area….

    THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BY SAT
    MORNING INVOF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THEN EAST TO NEAR THE I-95
    CORRIDOR BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON INCLUDING DCA/BWI. AREAS EAST OF
    I-95 FROM NRN VA/CNTRL MD NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND…INCLUDING A
    NYC/BOS LINE…WILL LIKELY SEE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE BE RAIN
    GIVEN THE NEARBY MILD ATLANTIC OCEAN…WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
    FOR A FEW HRS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW AS COLDER AIR
    FILTERS SOUTH.

  6. Thanks TK and thank you Hadi for your posts. Not having learned the fine points of reading graphs, is there an idea of the Framingham area snowfall amounts? Dryer on 7 was saying 1-3 east of 495 which doesn’t seem like a whole lot to me (I know it’s a matter of perspective:).

    1. I really think it’s a matter of how much marine air gets into the region. It appears more and more that the coastal areas let’s say within 10 miles of the Ocean will stay mostly rain until the storm moves by. But again if the storms depens so rapidly it can make cold air and turn the rain sooner to snow, but I just do not see that happening in the coastal areas at this point.

  7. It is a glorious morning. I’m looking out the window in front of my desk through snow covered forsythia (still holding all of their leaves) to a pine forest with some snow on the branches to crystal blue, sun lit sky. Spectacular.

    I am worried about the trees tomorrow though since very few have lost leaves in this area.

  8. trees for interior are going to get smaked again. Between the 2008 ice storm, Asian Beetle and now this, the Worcester area trees are going to pack up and move

    1. I’m laughing out loud – not that the trees will be hurt of course but the “pack up and move” comment

  9. I feel the the wind direction is really going to effect the snow accumulations father west the anticipated. It appears the wind directions during the day on Saturday will be generally from the east, promoting warmer air. The longer and stronger the winds are from the east, the deeper in land it will travel. With that said, Worcester east up to 2″ with amounts dropping off to a trace along the coast. This will of course all happen once the winds switch around to the N – NW and colder air is drawn into the circulation of the storm. You would have to travel to Extreme Northern Massachusetts and Extreme Southern / South Western New Hampshire to see destructive snow. Another major concern is along the cost with strong winds and extremely high tides. In general this will be a ho hum storm from Rte 2 to just before the coastline, some wind, some rain with some snow on the back end. I am working on a impact scale which is exactly that, impacts we feel based on weather conditions, day of the week and timing of the event. It will not based on amount of rain or snow amount and I will try to pin point the area’s effected rather than giving a region wide numbering system. I still have some work to do on this scale so I offer this as my impact scale for the time being.

    Northern Worcester, North Western Middlesex and North East Franklin County: Moderate to High Impact: Storm kit should be at hand in case of power failure.

    Eastern, North Eastern Facing Coastal Area’s prone to destruction during Nor-Easters: Low/Moderate Impact (Most residences in these areas are use to these types of storms but will see more water than usual due to high tides).

    Everyone Else: Low Impact (Been there, done that).

    Quicker Mover too! What makes this fascinating is that we are talking snow in October.

  10. Can you say: “Coastal Front”

    Depending on exactly where the “expected” coastal front sets up, will make a tremendous difference with how much snow falls near the coast. No brainer for
    well inland.

    My guess right now is that it will be primarily rain at Logan with a mix and changeover
    on the back side with perhaps an inch or 2. Western sections of the city
    will start as rain and then have flakes mixing in and then snow. Perhaps 2-4 inches.
    Then it builds up to the N & W where 8+ should fall. Some inland place will score
    a jackpot of 12+ inches.

    06NAM and 06GFS have between 1.5 and 1.75 inches qpf.

    If this were January! WOW!! That Ocean is just WAY WAY WAY too warm.

    Look what happened yesterday. I saw flakes mixing in at 3:50PM and it didn’t completely change over until after 7PM.

  11. Coastal,

    I might tend to agree with you except for two huge factors…..nighttime and crashing heights which I think will put up to 495 in play north of the pike.

      1. 1.5″……..sort of got dry slotted last night otherwise more might have piled up. It flipped to light snow at about 5:00 but never really came down hard for any length of time. kind of dink and dunk snow to use a football anology.

        2. That’s not bad for October. Never even whitened the
          ground at my house even though it snowed for 5 hours.

  12. Coastal may be 100% correct, but at this moment, I don’t quite buy into that.

    Waiting of 12Z NAM. Will look that over.

    HOWEVER, I do agree IF the wind is MORE EAST, it will Rain out to Worcester.

    I still see the wind as more North East (except where the coastal fron sets up) then shifting to NORTH.

    We shall see as always.

    1. Looks East North East. From that link it appears the wind direction is from East Boston to the south side of Worcester.

      1. NO, it is not. It is NNE

        Look at the little flag. That is the wind direction.
        Don’t look at the isobars.

  14. I also am having a hard time going against the EURO, bc the NAM and GFS were way behind picking up on the storm. The EURO is much colder then the NAM and GFS form the 00Z run last night. It places the low a little further west thus limiting the marine air penetrating inland. Just something to keep in mind:)

  17. Nam soundings are warmer for both but still just cold enough out here.

    I’m thinking a real sharp cut-off. (to state the obvious)

    Individual towns might have rain on one end and winter on the other

    1. When were these soundings done? Are they taking into account
      any dynamic cooling fromt the system itself?

  18. Historically, this event isn’t well known with the models, only happened once before. Also being that it’s late October. Therefore there may be a fair amount of model error here. Something to think about, as I have really no clue what may happen with this.

    1. Scott,

      Good point. What affect will a 56 Degree Ocean out there have on this
      developing monster? This really could end up being something the likes
      of which we have never seen.

  20. o.s.

    these are from the 6z runs. I’ll put up the wind field as well for both.

    the cooling (crashing heights) will come from the heavy precip.

  26. It is almost comical that we are discussing this, but I have to admit I am happy to be back on in October. Last night in Pelham, NH we had almost 3 inches at my house (400 feet in elevation). I came back from the Bruins game last night and was in shock. It sounds like we may have about the same on Saturday night. Thanks to all for the input, I haven’t been posting but I have been following.

  29. i posted the wind field from 6z runs but it’s awaiting moderation for some reason. I’ll wait until the next runs are through cause the ones i posted will be ancient history by then.

  32. ok…NAM still looking good. It looks even juicier than 6z. The NW part of CT. into the Bershshires looks to get crushed.

  33. O.S.

    even on the soundings, which didn’t post, the winds look more northerly through the column to confirm what you’re seeing. coastal plain will be fighting b.l. temps.

    1. Retrac,

      It seems the site only allows ONE link to be posted. IF place 2 links
      in the same post, it goes to moderation. At least that is what I have found.

  34. Retrac,

    Thanks.

    I hate to say this, but I am beginning to come around to this being a HUGE SNOW EVENT, even for Boston. Those more Northerly Winds will do the trick. Boston may lose a little bit on the fron end until it changes over, then WHAM!!

  35. 12Z NAM total Precip for Event:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F28%2F2011+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_ptot&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=054&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L

    NOTE: Boston area 1.75-2.00 liquid

    I don’t even want to think about this)!(@#!(@*#()!*@#(*!@(#*(!@*#()*(*!@(#

    1. Oops…Boston area: 2.0-2.5 inches

      What a Colossal MONSTER IF this verifies!!

      I don’t even want to think about it!!!)!()@#()*!@(*#(!@*(#*)!@(*

  36. From NWS a few minutes ago after they looked at the NAM:

    STORM UPDATE…
    WE WILL WAIT TO EVALUATE THE ENTIRE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE BEFORE
    MAKING ANY CHANGES. HOWEVER…BASED ON PRELIMINARY EVALUATIONS
    THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
    SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED WITH THE AFTERNOON
    PACKAGE. WIND AND COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES MAY BE ISSUED IN THE
    AFTERNOON PACKAGE. MUCH MORE COMING THIS AFTERNOON AFTER ALL THE
    DATA IS EVALUATED

  38. that’s a ton of qpf o.s.

    lots of column cooling.

    it can’t come any closer though or get too strong and bring in too much easterly fetch.

    1. Retrac,

      Agreed. btw, What is making this beast line up with NORTHERLY winds?
      Unless the NAM is screwing it up, it just seems to be pointing towards
      Norherly, then NorthWesterly winds. That adds up to SNOW, even in
      Boston and a lot of it at that. Surfaces will have had a chance to cool some
      last night and tonight prior to the event, so once it flips to snow and heavy snow at that, it won’t take too long before it starts to accumulate.

      I am not trying to get hysterical here, but I really think we may be looking
      at a HISTORICAL event.

  39. Hadi,

    If this comes in, it’ll be historic and if you’re as much a geek about this stuff as me and looks like the rest of us, get in a car and rent a hotel out this way for the night. what did you pay for entertainment going to Disney?

    check out the wachusett village inn

    http://www.wachusettvillageinn.com/

  41. Maybe o.s.

    I’m just thinking how much warming will take place in advance of the storm from the due east wind at first. this is what will pose a problem inside of 495. (it will take that much longer to cool the column)

    1. I hear what you are saying, but imho, once the wind shifts, it won’t take
      long at all to cool the column. This precip, afterall, will be heavy.

      I am plenty worried, I can say that for sure. I hope it stays rain in the City,
      But I don’t see it that way.

      Time will tell.

  48. It seems that the back side of this storm will bring copious amounts of precip in the form of snow all the way towards the coast.
    Oh why can’t this be December and call this a major snow storm for all…

  49. It would be very odd should NYC, Philly, Baltimore, and DC end up with more snow than Boston. It wouldn’t be a big deal if it were winter, but for October would be “meteorologically” impossible…if there is such a term.

    We could very well see similar tree damage and power outages inland that much of eastern MA (esp. south of Boston) got during Irene should 6″+ materialize.

    1. Yup,

      If this verifies, and we have complete agreement between the NAM and GFS, then Inland areas will suffer a Major Disaster!

      I believe I read somewhere, that with full canopied trees, all that is needed for damage is 2 inches of heavy wet snow. If that is the case, then even Boston, especially JP, Roslindale, Allston/Brighton and W. Roxbury could suffer severe damage.

      I guess the wife and I won’t make it to Foxwoods tomorrow evening as planned????

  50. So, given the above, I would expect rain or mix in Boston to changeover to snow
    somewhere between the 39 and 42 hour mark, leaving some heavy precip
    left for snow. Winds prior to this period are straight NE, not ENE, but straight NE.

    Just can’t know for certain.

    We shall see.

  51. Just need to keep reminding myself that it’s only October, plenty of more snow storms to have this winter…so missing this one won’t be the end of the world.

    1. I am in the same school of thought as my post above…

      The wind is going to have an easterly component to it most of the day Saturday. The boundary layer is going to be very warm and it’s going to take quite a while to cool things to get any appreciable snow in Metro Boston, and by the time that happens the heaviest will be almost over.

      Boston: 0.5 inch.
      Woburn: 2.5 inches.
      Worcester: 5.5 inches.

  53. All 3 noontime mets seem to agree on a solid 2 inches for Boston! Also Dylan Dreyer said that if this were January we would be talking about a widespread 2+ feet easily.

    I guess in spite of this being October I shouldn’t be surprised by that snow total for Boston…when the city gets any kind of a northerly drift, it doesn’t take long for a changeover. An example was a major storm in Dec. 1993 when Worcester got clobbered with 20-30″ snow, Boston later changed to snow and got a quick 9″ or so and as closeby as Quincy barely a trace.

  54. Something just occured to me. Assuming inland areas get a good 6-12″ will most roads end up fairly clear so no plows will be required and power crews able to get to affected areas quickly?

    1. From what I’m seeing with the back end of the storm, those amounts may not be far off, could be some thundersnow near the coastal front.

    2. I would also like to add that his map just doesn’t make sense climatologically if nothhing else…several inches of snow all the way down to the CC Canal?

    1. I guess we will see what the future shows, but the more I look at Henry’s map…IMO even coastal Maine is a bit overdone on snow totals as well.

  57. This storm will be much stronger than the last one, so it will be able to pull more cold air down, even towards the coast, in a quicker way.
    This is a very challenging forecast in my mind!

    1. Hmmm…didn’t think of it that way Scott. You may be on to something.

      It will be interesting what NWS, tv mets and TK come up with later….but I still feel all this potential shouldn’t be happening climatologically.

  58. If I was a gambler I would say the NWS will increase snow totals all over the region by a decent amount in the AFD.

  59. Hi all,

    Except for perhaps deep South Shore, I tend to Agree with Henry’s Map.
    I am perhaps all wet, but that is the way I see it right now.

  63. Hey, I just checked the BZ blog and there is someone there masquerading
    as Old Salty. It is NOT I.

    I think I will change my name here.

    It is from now on: JpDave

    Thanks

    1. I went to the BZ blog the other day for the first time in a while to see what the mets are saying and contribute. I couldn’t bring myself to do it. There are some very knowledgeable people contributing but still the same old trolls. But taking anothers name to me is inexcusable.

      1. Thank Viki. Hope you have your flashlights ready.

        I’d have the same preparations as you did for Irene.

  67. I tried to read the maps Old Salty and seemed to have better luck reading the summer ones. I had to stop and laugh because without realizing it I was literally twisting my head around to figure out what is projected for our area 🙁

    I checked all three major Boston stations and they seem to have Framingham in the 3-6 inch range. Does that seem right?

    1. If you go by the TV Mets, yes that is correct.

      I’d wager you get at least 6 inches, more like 8-10.

      But that is just my gut call.

      I could be way off.

  68. From what I am seeing on Accuweather blog, the EURO is holding with the colder scenario, really bombs out the storm. It looks really wound up. Can’t see what precip it spits out. JMA has access to all the data.

    1. Hadi,

      Thanks for update. What’s your thought for JP?
      I am thinking something like 3-6 inches, with a slight chance of more.

      1. OS,
        EURO is spitting out 3-6 for NY City so based on that I would have to say more for us further north. Maybe 6 which might be pushing it, but I think dynamic cooling is gonna be a factor big time. I think if anything the rain changed sooner ie April Fool’s storm type.

  69. I’m interested in a take on snow ratio’s for areas.

    Another thing too….

    leaves+snow+gale+soft/unfrozen ground=a freash supply of cordwood.

    2. I agree – good job

      There is someone on there who is interested in finding out about where everyone went and said he’d supply his email – Joe I think??

    2. old salty – I just figured out I can click on an area to enlarge but in precip how does that translate to snow? I’m determined I’m going to figure these charts out because I hope to see a lot of them this winter – thank you

    1. I think I could see that Hadi, even if Boston’s QPF is significantly more. NYC will have much less marine influence to their boundary layer than eastern Mass. I suppose if their precip is not heavy enough, then they’ll also get rain.

      1. I hear ya just don’t see it happening. I think TV mets are going to be changing tune come tomorrow morning. I think we have some surprised in store, I see the temps crashing faster then the TV mets are thinking.

  74. Channel 5 and 7 have no snow for Hanover, Channel 4 says less than a inch. I guess time will tell. Anyone want to take a shot at it?

    1. If the Japanese model verifies, you’ll get more than an inch.

      Just hard to say, but I’d wager you’ll see an inch or 2 on the back side
      only.

    3. Maybe a tight gradient on this one coastal. I could imagine there being some small accumulation just west of Rte. 3, snow in the air late Saturday night from rte. 3 to a couple miles from the coast, and no snow along the immediate coastline.

      1. I am roughly 3 miles west of Route 3.

        Sometimes when I am at lowes in Pembroke it is raining, and by the time I get home its snowing.

        1. Oh yes, for sure. I have had the same experience going eastward. At the 99’s at Rte 3 by exit 12, I’ve seen 3-5 inches and by the time I hit the CVS and Dunkin Donuts in Marshfield center, its raining.

    4. I would bet we get very little, a slushy inch tops. heading to the cape in the early afternoon tomorrow, Harvey said rain there.

  76. Every Model is on board for this thing and they all having it blowing up!!

    I see a ton of snow once that wind back around close to North and it looks like
    there will be significant precip with the wind that direction.

    I think something is being overlooked here.

    I am worried.

    1. Yes, combined with thundersnow, someone could pick up a quick 2-4 inches in a few short hours.
      If that coastal front gets pushed just east of Boston, yikes…

  77. I’m looking forward to watching obs Saturday night. I could see an inland reporting station being 32F or 33F, reporting heavy wet snow under an intense precip band, and then an hour later being 35F or 36F and reporting light rain under lighter precip. I’d say the snow totals arent going to be symmetric, but rather here and there.

    1. Who’s kidding Who here:

      NWS:

      SATURDAY NIGHT…MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. IFR TO LIFR
      CONDITIONS IN RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MAINLY WET SNOW
      ACROSS THE INTERIOR. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO WET SNOW IN THE BOS-PVD
      CORRIDOR AT NIGHT…BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHEN THAT OCCURS.
      SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS. NORTHEAST WINDS
      WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS ON THE
      IMMEDIATE COAST. PERHAPS EVEN A BIT HIGHER ON NANTUCKET

      Huh? Rain “MAY” change to snow???? Wind Shifting to NW and rain “may” change to snow.

      Are these guys NUTS!!!!

      How about WILL CHANGE TO SNOW!!

      ARGHHHHHHHH!@*(#!@()#*(!*@#(*!(@*)#@()#

          1. In spite of what the models say, maybe they are going on past experience, and usually when the wind comes around to northwest, the heaviest precip is over (most times). And I think heavy precip is needed for sustained snowfall.

          2. You could be right. But in my experience, I have seen many times Significant snow once
            the wind shifts. (Guarantee I am much older than all of those folks preparing those statements. Not that I am a Met and I really have no business saying what I am expect we are among fellow bloggers who don’t mind)

            Just saying.

          3. Agreed Old Salty,

            I think the last big snow on a NW wind was very recent, in Dec. 2005. Here in Marshfield, we had a NW wind, and in 2 hrs, got 5 inches of snow with lightning.

  81. Getting the flashlights and candles ready just in case the power goes out. Areas near and at the coast under 4 inches which is why I am giving those areas a one. Inland especially up in elevation I am going with a 2 since 4 plus inches is possible in those areas.

    1. Jimmy I agree that you should be prepared. Any area that is in the heaviest snow could experience similar conditions that many had during Irene. If this were a more “normal” fall, most leaves would have already fallen. Still lots of “green” here in Boston…still very few yellows and oranges.

  88. here is the text write up for Rosxbury

    Saturday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 8pm. Patchy fog. Patchy freezing fog after 4am. Low around 32. Windy, with a north wind 18 to 21 mph increasing to between 28 and 31 mph. Winds could gust as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible

    1. Hadi,

      Where did you see that? Do you have a link? That is the most realistic
      statement I have seen on this event.

      Thanks

        1. Hadi,

          I typed in a few zip codes. What I got was Nuts.
          Just not in touch with reality in my opinion.

          Try typing in 02130 and see what comes up.

          Pure garbage!

  91. I know that the relatively cool airmass, evaporative cooling and strong dynamics will allow for wet snow, but I still find it amazing that in late October, with Hudson Bay completely ice free and most of central / eastern Canada relatively mild, that a big snowfall is going to happen locally.

    By the way, I’m convinced that if this verifies, it will barely snow the rest of the winter. 🙂

  95. I’m having a hard time with the high amounts in NH. This storm is headed for the benchmark…….How much QPF is slated for west central NH ? If the ration were 10 to 1, this would imply more than 1 inch of QPF. I doubt the ratio is going to be that low. More like 15 to 1 and they’ll start off as rain or mix.

    1. I got this wrong…no surprise there :). I meant less snow for 1 inch of rain. So, maybe only 5 or 6 inches of snow for every inch of rain.

  97. 1.9 in at Logan, to me, is impressive. I mean, that is right on the water, as far out into the harbor as you can be without being in the ocean. If Logan gets 1.9 inches, then the west side of the city would probably be looking at twice as much. I dont think Logan sees that much.

  99. Just wondering what the temps are way up there in the clouds and if they are going to influence things here on the ground?

  100. screw them:))

    AT THIS TIME…WE ARE GOING TO KEEP EXTREME NORTHEAST MA INTO BOSTON
    OUT OF A WINTER STORM WATCH. WILL HAVE TO BE CAREFUL HERE BECAUSE
    AS THE LOW BOMBS OUT A QUICK FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATE EVEN IN
    DOWNTOWN BOSTON LATE IN THE EVENING. ON THE OTHER HAND…IF THE
    WARMER SOLUTIONS VERIFY IT COULD END AS JUST A TOUCH OF SNOW WITH
    LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE WATER TEMPERATURE OFF THE MA
    COAST IS IN THE MIDDLE 50S…SO THE CHANGE OVER IN THIS REGION WON/T
    BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE SURFACE WIND GOES NORTH. THIS MAY END UP
    BEING MORE OF A MESOSCALE TYPE OF SITUATION…ONE OF WHICH MAY NOT
    KNOW THE EXACT DETAILS UNTIL THE VERY END

    3. They’re weenies afraid to stick their necks out.

      I know what they mean, but C’mon. Winter storm watch for
      Cambridge, but not for Boston?

      How about West Roxbury?

      Gimmie a break.

      well I have seen JP get 5 inches and Logan get the goose egg.
      So we shall see!

  101. I am getting “mixed signals” so to speak. Is Boston now officially in the Winter Storm Watch area?

  102. Sorry guys & gals! Busy day. Had to make a trip to Charlestown a bit earlier than usual. My son has a school dance. It’s my wife’s birthday and we’re going to dinner while he’s at his dance. Among other things. And keeping track of the weather!

    Son has soccer tomorrow, I’m going to a race in NH at night that is being held regardless of weather (LOL), and a big parade in Woburn on Sunday which my son is marching in. What a weekend! Halloween itself might feel like a vacation!

  103. Maybe this will be a repeat of Dec 2005……explosive development with thundersnow on the backside of the departing low, even to the coast.

    We have friends going camping just west of Manchester, NH and I have tried to make them aware of the situation, but they are still going. They have a big camper, so they’ll be safe and its an open field, so trees arent an issue, but I’m looking forward to seeing the obs from the area Sat Night.

    1. Hadi,

      I agree. The fact that this thing will be BOMBING out with PLENTY
      of COLD air aloft, spells SNOW, even in the CITY. Sure it may rain until
      the wind shifts, but once it does, all hell could break loose.

      1. In favor of greater snow amounts, it is 12F on Mt Washington, thats pretty cold !! And the dewpoints are in the 20s, as they are in most of southeastern Canada.

  106. Boston’s Snowiest Octobers:

    1. 1.1″ = 10/29/2005
    2. 0.4″ = 10/14/1913
    3. 0.2″ = 10/10/1979 (earliest)
    4. 0.1″ = 10/18/2009

    Does Boston “smash” the record tomorrow night/early Sunday? 😉

      1. Scott,

        Yes for sure. 850MB temps look plenty cold. I was concerned
        about that damn 540 line with the 1000-500MB thickness.
        That line has crept NW since earlier runs.

        1. How about that back end snow for Northeast Mass?
          hour 42 from 18z NAM
          http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20111028%2F18%2Fnam_namer_039_1000_500_thick_l.gif&fcast=039&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&cycle=10%2F28%2F2011+18UTC&imageSize=L&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

  109. Pete Bouchard is calling this storm HISTORIC for October and that Worcester should break its October record of 7 inches.

    6-10″ central/western MA
    3-6″ Metrowest
    1-3″ Boston/Cape Ann

    1. Didn’t he see this thing coming days ago? The amounts are right in line with all three major Boston channels – unusual to say the very least

      1. I made a post to the FB page of Star Speedway in Epping NH on Monday saying that it was possible their race this Saturday night wouldn’t be rained out, but snowed out. Many of us were looking at this thing several days out.

    2. I can agree with his amounts, particularly the lower ends of each.

      If 18z NAM is in any way on target, the heaviest precip is going to be done before it’s cold enough to snow in most of eastern MA. We’ll have to rely on the tail end for accumulation.

  110. 18Z NAM total precip for event:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F28%2F2011+18UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p48&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=048&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L

    Not immediate Boston Area in the 2-2.5 inch range.

    If the first 1-1.25 inches is rain and the next 1-1.25 inches is snow with a 5-1 ratios,
    we’re looking at: 5-6 inches of HEAVY WET SNOW!

    1. Taking into account the NAM’s usual overdoing of precip for the 2nd half of a storm, I’d chop those amounts down somewhat.

      1. TK, thanks.

        What is your take for Hadi and Me. Not Logan, but where we
        are some 5-6 Miles due SW of Logan?

        I told my wife at lunch, 3-6 inches.

        Many thanks

        1. Not impossible but I’d lean toward the bottom end of that range at the moment. It is also interesting to note that many of my former coworkers have #’s higher than mine.

  111. TK, way above I posted Henry Margusity’s snowfall map. What model was he looking at that caused him to come up with those absurd amounts all the way down to the Cape no less? I don’t know one model from the other but just curious more than anything else.

    I get the feeling Henry has no insight to our “local” climate at all regarding ocean temps in particular.

  112. TK,

    Wife and I were planning on hitting Foxwoods tomorrow evening.
    The World Poker Tour main event is going on and we hoped to see
    some of the big names wondering through the poker room.

    Would I be in trouble driving home at say Midnight or 1AM up route 95 through
    Providence to Boston?

    Curious on your thoughts.

    My inclination is to stay home and stay out of potential trouble.

    Many thanks

    Regards,

  113. Local radio stations (I have yet to listen to WBZ/AccuWeather) are saying “up to 5 inches” as if Boston is included. Those in the immediate city who listen could get the wrong idea.

    Where are these stations getting this information?

    2. Up to 5 inches means 0-5″, but most people will hear that 5″, and completely forget the “up to” part.

  115. Todd did a great job explaining on the 5:00 BZ news. He seemed to be in agreement with what everyone here is saying maybe a bit more conservative. He also mentioned what you have all said about oct storms followed by below average snow in winter

    1. I mentioned it in previous posts this week! 🙂

      Todd did mention, however, that streaks are meant to be broken, we will see.

    2. We had october snow last year, remember that pats game. I thought Tk said that does not define the winter.

  117. Even though Harvey is calling for 1-3″ for Boston, he ended his forecast saying that this is the type of storm that can come with “surprises”.

    In spite of Boston being right along the coast, it also has the reputation of sneaky cold air w/o warning. It has messed up many a forecast…and many a a.m/p.m. commute.

    Dec. 9, 2005 comes to mind.

  118. The way the weather has been lately – stormy summer; mild fall and potential nor’easter in Oct., it’s anyone’s guess how much snow everyone will get. I am guessing that if and when the wind goes from northeast to north tomorrow will make all the difference. This looks to be an interesting storm, whatever happens. I guess we will all be “now-casting” rather than forecasting, unless things become more definite.

    1. Harvey knows his stuff. I would listen to whatever he says. The ch5 weather team is top notch. my opinion the best in boston. He always tells it like it is.

  120. Sunday morning from 2 am through mid-morning could be what gets Boston and the coastline quite snowy.

    WODS 103.3 is calling for 6″+ for Boston! Maybe we have been wrong all along blaming the tv stations for hype…it’s the radio stations. Back in the old days radio stations had their own “resident” mets. Nowadays they just read stuff out of thin air I guess?

    1. I will take everybody out to eat if boston sees 6inches. my guess at this time for boston no more than 2inches. Just my 2cents.

  121. I noticed tonight Todd was calling for 25-50 mph winds later tomorrow, indicating that strongest winds will be along the coast.

  123. Well I hope with this snow it won’t mean below normal snowfall for the season. I am hoping this is an omen for the winter or at least a good part of it.

    1. Jimmy, maybe Boston will break the 98 year old curse once and for all…LOL. 🙂

      1913-14 = 39.4″
      1979-80 = 12.7″
      2005-06 = 39.9″
      2009-10 = 35.7″
      2011-12 = ???????

      1. Todd actually did hint at that…I guess most if not all mets agree with above normal snowfall this upcoming winter. My skepticism is that if we see last years totals. For now, I really doubt it.

    2. I thought tk said october snow means nothing for the winter amounts, again remember last year during the october pats game. They had plows out in that area.

  124. The winter of 05-06 had a pretty good size Noreaster in February around the 12th. Boston had close to a foot and a half but it was NYC with its biggest snowfall on record with 26.9 inches. I got mild a few days later and most of the snow was gone by late week.

    1. Other than that sneaky snowstorm on Dec. 9, 2005 I have no memory of any February 2006 storm. When it snows that much in Boston, I usually remember it.

  125. One thing I remember from the weather conference is that tight snowfall gradients can lead to many errors.

    1. This storm is no exception. It is a very close call between the city of Boston and Metrowest (i.e. Newton, Wellesley, Framingham, etc.) between several inches and a slushy inch.

  129. Took my kids out. Its gotten chilly quickly this evening. Before it got dark, it was interesting to see some very low cumulus clouds beginning to form out over the ocean and starting to move northeast to southwest.

  131. Wow. That was fun trying to find you guys but I’m glad that I did. I missed the intelligent insight from the likes of TK, Baileyman, Hadi and others. The blogs on cbs4 have not changed as it is still littered with trolls who continuously blast one another.

    Anyways, we have yet another fun, early season winter storm on our hands, and I’m glad to be apart of it. I’m a huge snow lover, and I must admit that this is likely the first and last time that I will ever route AGAINST snow. My family and I are a tremendous halloween lovers, and snow would ruin our plans for the kids. Yet, routing against snow is like routing for the Yankees to win. Nevertheless, here is my take on this impending storm.

    First, I’d like to give big props to the EC model as it has been depicting a coastal storm for several days while the GFS/NAM have suppressed the event southeast of the 40/70 with a grazing effect. I was actually suprised to see that these models all converged upon a similar solution late last night as the pattern did not appear amplified enough to steer this storm up the coast. But, there is a noreaster on the way–there is little doubt about that. Precip. type/timing becomes an issue especially inside 495. Outside of 495 is more predictable as I expect mainly a snow event which will quickly become heavy at times Saturday night into mid Sunday morning and a good swath of 6-12 inches of snow seems plausible. There is a lot of liquid equivalent with this particular storm and hence if it were mid January, we’d be talking about a foot and a half for those locals. To make matters worse, a coastal front will be setting up along this corridor which will help to intensify the snowfall rates to 1-2 inches per hour with thundersnow (my favorite). Yet, as we move closer to the coast, the October sun angle, a warm ground and the marine layer will make it more challenging for rain to change over to snow. Consequently, a delay in the changeover east of 495 will result in lesser snow amounts. I’m predicting 3-6 inches east of 495 to the north shore, a mile or two just west of the city, down to the southshore including the city of Brockton to a line just west of Providence. East of that line, by the time the changeover occurs, the brunt of the precipitation would have ended and thus we’re only looking at a slushy inch or two here. Folks on the Cape? Sorry. The precipitation will mainly be going down the drain for you.

    A couple of things have me concerned, however, which makes forecasting these events hairpulling yet fun. Last night’s event trended slightly cooler than was forecasted, hence, many of you were surprised to be scraping snow off yours cars this morning. I believe in patterns. And once we lose daytime heating upon sundown, I expect evaportational cooling and dynamic cooling to take shape as the storm bombs out just southeast of Nantucket. A scenerio like this could result in a rain/snow line that collapses toward the coast sooner than models are predicting. The coastal front, consequently, could set shop over the BOS to PVD corridor, and if this were to occur, you can move the more substantial snow amounts closer to the coast.

    There is no doubt that his will be a fun storm as it materializes. I’m very excited to contribute to this board. I have will have more later. Stay tuned and enjoy the night!

    1. Welcome- your input on this blog is so huge. I remember you from wbz and than you vanished, I know why. I am so happy to see you here. You can talk about anything here and not be bashed. Again welcome and I look forward to blogging with you.

  134. Anyone think blizzard watch could be be posted for parts of coastal Maine? The winds are going to be fierce for a while tomorrow night.

  136. Blizzard Warning Criteria involves sustained winds or gusts to at least 35 mph considerable blowing or falling of snow reducing visibility less than 1/4 mile for at least 3hrs.

  137. I am aware of the criteria and really think coastal Maine has a chance. Temps are not a part of a blizzard.

  138. Question: I’ve heard many concerns about snow piling up on trees and causing power failure. My question is, if the wind is so strong wouldn’t it prohibit snow from collecting? Pasting yes but collecting?

  142. night Hadi..

    NAM looking good right now.

    would like to see some of that milder air get scoured out of that 18z GFS.

  146. Earlier today I heard Christmas music playing in Walmart.
    Right now I’m sitting here reading about a potential snowstorm.
    The television is playing an ad for a movie called “Arthur Christmas”.
    And I’m busy making my Halloween costume. This is so WILD!

  153. really…..

    this is going to be one heck of a storm.

    i still have snow on the ground from last night.

    nothing like building a base in october!

  154. I’m glad to have finally found the group of avid weather fans that once contributed to other blogs.

    While I don’t think it will materialize as such, we are so close to the anniversary of “The Perfect Storm” I couldn’t help but mention the coincidence. We are 20 years to the date of this event. Where there was Grace, we have Rita (albeit far from where Grace was) and we have a deepening low pressure system off of the Carolina coast. This will be no perfect storm, but certainly a perfect October phenomenon that we’ll recall for years. Looking forward to reading and learning from those on this blog.

  156. Pittsfield has reported 10″. I just turned on Channel 5 and they reported 80,000 homes without electricity. Harvey’s forecast is coming.

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