Friday July 10 2020 Forecast

73 Comments

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 10-14)

Tropical Storm Fay formed just off the East Coast of the US yesterday and will make a rapid run up the coast, center making landfall over the northern Mid Atlantic tonight then racing northward up the Hudson Valley region early Saturday morning. This is going to be a very quick “event” for us here in the form of a gusty breeze, a couple waves of showers / downpours and potential thunder (which carry a slight potential of a few damaging wind gusts), and tropical humidity, and then it’s gone, just like that, leaving us with a sun/cloud mix Saturday but still quite humid. Also a lingering trough behind Fay may help ignite some afternoon showers and thunderstorms Saturday, but right now the greatest chance for this to happen is just west of the WHW forecast area, some making their way in weakening or scattered form into the region during the evening or night. Humidity comes down a notch Sunday but another weak trough swinging through may still help fire off a shower or thunderstorm in a few places during the afternoon / early evening so can’t forecast totally dry. If there is one “significant” change to this outlook it is that a slightly stronger disturbance seems slated to want to make a passing visit on Monday, and that will again increase the risk of showers and thunderstorms before drier air finally arrives for Tuesday.

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of showers and possible thunderstorms any time this afternoon, but greatest risk mid to late afternoon. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Very humid. Lows 67-74. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible, mainly southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT. Humid. Highs 84-91. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms early. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a late-day shower or thunderstorm. Slightly less humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Slightly less humid. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 80-87. Wind W-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 15-19)

Limited risk for any shower / thunderstorms in weak to moderate westerly air flow much of the time. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 20-24)

A slightly stronger west to northwest flow aloft means a warm pattern with limited shower / storm chances but probably no extreme heat either.

73 thoughts on “Friday July 10 2020 Forecast”

  5. I figured about 75% of the region will get under a half inch of rain from Fay.

    1. I absolutely agree!! This has been way over hyped (not here of course)!

      I keep watching the radars. The overwhelming majority of
      rain will fall well to the West.

    2. Good news. 1/2 inch in many cases will do more than 3 inches of run off. We had the half inch or less a weekish ago and it helped tremendously

  6. Thanks TK
    This day in weather history July 10, 1989 The Northeastern Tornado Outbreak. I was five years old at the time and this was my first weather memory. To me this is the benchmark of severe weather outbreaks in my life. I was home with my mom the time the tornado came around 5pm that day. Thankfully only a tree came down and it fell in the yard. The strongest tornado happened in Hamden, CT where an EF 4 occurred.
    From Ryan Hanrahan on that day
    https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/the-1989-tornado-outbreak/73068/

  8. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

    I’m kind of impressed with the evolution of this system..

    Interesting low level center with a 2nd tighter spin rotating around the northern half. Yesterday’s barely 5mph west winds on the south side of the circulation have increased to around 40 mph

    Doing a good job maintaining, even creating some thunderstorms at this latitude.

    An east side tail (will this maintain itself and make its way towards CT ?)

    Interesting system for early July.

    1. Sure looks like bulk of system will pass well to the West
      of us. I wonder how DRY it will stay around these parts??

  10. If there were to be a brief tornado Long Island and the CT shoreline would be the place I would be looking. These tornadoes with tropical systems are usually weak EF0 EF1.

      1. 5%
        I wonder IF they’ll post a watch later?
        I doubt it, but it could happen.

        Also, there is much sunshine here in the city and wicked
        humid. Wondering IF this could spawn some convection
        in far outer bands. COuld this bring the tornado threat
        farther North??????

        1. I know a northern latitude somewhat tropical system is incomparable to a southern latitude tropical system.

          I do feel like there’s been occasional EF0’s and 1’s in bands way to the east of original landfall location.

          1. I think if the sfc winds are still E or SE this evening and we see a couple bands make their way into eastern areas, it might be wise to monitor their progress.

  14. JpDave I got in and out sunshine and it is a little breezy currently. It is a big time STICKORAMA with the high dewpoints. It is a wait and see for what happens later today and tonight. I have not seen a mesoscale discussion yet from SPC. I would not be surprised to see one at some point this afternoon.

  17. “Tropical Storm Fay is heading up the coast, so let’s all prepare ourselves for a wet weekend with severe thunderstorms and high winds.”

    -NBC Boston anchor on noon news.

    They are going on my contact list too. This is a problem. It’s misinformation. I know it’s not intentional misinformation, but it’s still wrong info.

    I’ll go to Pete.

  19. White House postpones event in New Hampshire for tomorrow based on the incoming tropical storm.

    Well, that safely says that they don’t get their weather from my blog.

  21. Only 73 at the airport with East wind at 12.
    My equipment is reading 87 here, so with partial sunshine
    probably means it is 85 here. I was just out on the porch
    and it sure feels like it is well into the 80s with high humidity.

  23. TK – Regarding tv news anchors giving out so much weather misinformation, isn’t that the responsibility of the on air tv met on duty for that newscast to make sure that anchor(s) are on the same page prior to the newscast?

    1. News directors and/or the station general manager can do what
      they want with headlines. Therein lies the problem.

        1. Well, sadly there won’t be anything I or anyone else can do to influence that end of it, but at least getting them to realize there are certain phrases that should be avoided (depending on the situation) can at least help people understand what’s coming instead of having unreasonable and unnecessary worries.

    2. I don’t believe so. I think most of it is written by whomever scripts the program. Honestly I think it’s kind of a miscommunication in a way. In the age of insane amounts of info and having to update TV, social media, etc, etc, etc, I just think sometimes, maybe often, quick headlines are paraphrased in a way that make them misinformation. I MUST emphasize here, I realize this is not intentional. I think it’s just a lack of full communication between all parties involved, because somehow the higher tech of the info age has seemed to add to the work load rather than taking from it. But somewhere in there I think there is a way this can be fixed.

      I’m going to compose an email to a couple of the mets though, because I think they can relate to this, during this weekend. I want it to be well thought out and worded.

      While it is disappointing to see it happen so often, I also realize why it’s happening, with the result really just a “fault in the system” more than any one person’s fault in most cases.

  24. Yesterday, we had a decent SSW wind down here. Sent all the warm sfc water out, the water couldn’t have been 55F.

    Now, the wind is ESE, blowing the water in from Cape Cod Bay and it has to be at least 70F. I might even get in, which is saying something.

  30. Actually felt comfortable on my run just now. Must be a sea breeze . I’ll take it, even if it’s temporary relief. No rain where I am. Cloudy, but just a light cloud cover.

  32. Going to guess 3 “bands” visit the region. The first one is in the area now. Two more should follow between now and pre-dawn.

    I’m also slightly intrigued by Monday’s thunderstorm potential… More on that later.

  33. TK I can’t wait to hear your thoughts later on Monday’s potential even though I know a lot change between now and then.

  34. Alamosa, Colorado dropped to 37 degrees Friday morning, setting a new record low for the day. In the afternoon, they rose to 92, also setting a new record high for the day.

    There aren’t that many places that could set a record low and record high on the same day, especially in the summer.

  36. 0.16 total here in JP. It was never going to rain much
    in Eastern SNE. Never had a chance.

    1. A Trace at Logan up until midnight and probably not much more fell thereafter. Up until a couple days ago, the forecasts were for a widespread 1-2” with 40 mph winds.

      1. The only place that knew what was going on was right here
        on WHW. Funny about that, isn’t it?

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