Tuesday July 28 2020 Forecast

81 Comments

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

A cold front crosses the region today, triggering showers and thunderstorms for some locations. This frontal passage will take the edge off the heat and humidity for midweek, and a second front will come through during Thursday cooling it down a bit more to end the week.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds South Coast early, otherwise mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning including a risk of showers near the South Coast. Clearing afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 2-6)

High pressure will control the weather with dry weather and low to moderate humidity August 2. An increase in humidity and shower risk comes after that, and we may need to keep an eye on a tropical system near or off the East Coast toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 7-11)

Current indications are for a weak westerly flow aloft and at the surface a potential battle between high pressure in Canada and high pressure off the US East Coast. This should increase the shower and thunderstorm risk somewhat during this period.

81 thoughts on “Tuesday July 28 2020 Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    It’s a stinker out there this morning.
    Overnight low in Boston was 79 which sets a record.

    Currently 84 with dp 70

  7. Many observations sites have already hit 90. Still 88 with
    dp 70 at the airport. Waiting for that to change. My equipment also says 88 (not in the sun yet)

    2. “NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, located about 400 miles east of the Windward Islands, at 11 am AST.”

      If they’re calling it a Potential Tropical Cyclone, that means a Tropical Storm Watch is going up for some of the islands. They only use “Potential”, when it’s not quite there, but they think it will be a threat to land as a Tropical Storm within 36 hours.

      1. SAK, is this the system you told us to keep an eye on
        a few days ago? Thanks

        What are your current thoughts on any potential impact here?

        thanks again.

        1. Yes, this is the same system. Until it actually develops, all model solutions are suspect. It looks decent, but still lacks a well-defined low-level center. If that center develops in a different spot than where the models think it will, then the entire track forecast is off. Many of the ensembles are still showing a potential East Coast threat, but it’s still WAY too early to speculate on that.

          Of course, since I forecast for 6 radio stations in the US Virgin Islands, my next few nights of work just got a LOT busier.

          1. Many thanks!

            Understood.

            For now, something to watch.

            Good luck with your VI forecasts. They are in good hands.

  10. 89/71 dp at Logan…AWFUL!!!

    Looking forward to Canadian high to win the battle on DAYS 11-15.

    1. Now DP = 72!!!

      YUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCKKKK!!!!!@(#(&@(*#&(*!@&#(*&!(@*&#(*!@#(!@(*#^(!*@^#*&!

  12. Parts of SE New England upgraded to an excessive heat warning, probably because of the higher dp’s.

  14. Current Logan heat index 97
    Norwood: 99
    Plymouth: 101
    Taunton: 101
    New Bedford: 102
    Marshfield: 104

    1. Oh boy I’m not drinking I promise . Heading to the beach at noontime we need a delete button lol . Stay hydrated everyone

        1. I’m good with my water & hot coffee . I am a big coffee drinker I do not drink alcohol at all . I just finished my 4th coffee

          1. Well, ICED coffee is way up on my list of Hot Weather beverages. I don’t drink alcohol at all either. Haven’t in a long long time. 🙂 I cannot drink hot coffee in this weather. 🙂

  18. SAK…

    I have hearing from media outlets that we keep breaking records for the earliest named storms (“Isaías will be the earliest “I” storm in history.”). Whenever I hear this I remember your words from a couple of weeks ago about named storms that really weren’t named storms from the “National Thunderstorm Naming Center.” 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Can I ask if you work with Rob Carolan?

    1. Rob is my boss. I’ve been working with him at Hometown Forecast Services for 13 years, but have known him for nearly 30 from a previous job (which is also where I met TK).

      1. I listen to Rob on WSAR in Fall River each morning (well, on the days I drive to the classroom). He is a wonderful teacher and “explainer” of the weather.

        Thanks, SAK!

  20. Compared to yesterday and today, yes, the temp and dp should be backing off some.

    But, after looking at the 00z EURO and the 12z GFS, tomorrow and Thursday, I see 850 mb temps of 15C climbing back to 18C in southern areas on Thursday, along with a brief humidity bump again late Wed night into part of Thursday.

    I´m not too enthused about a big breathe of fresh air anytime soon.

    And then, hints of a tropical plume along the east coast in the mid range, without hot temps, but perhaps with oppressive humidity returning at some point.

      1. Agreed. One shower appears to be just south of you and a heavier cell looks to be to your west.

  22. At 1pm :

    Providence: 98F, dp: 68, Heat Indice: 104F
    Plymouth: 96F, dp: 71, Heat indice: 103F
    Taunton: 97F, dp: 68, Heat indice: 102F
    New Bedford: 97F, dp: 74, Heat Indice: 109F

  23. Those heat index values you posted the reason why those areas were upgraded to a Excessive Heat Warning.

  24. Day #8 for Logan of 90F. Normal is 14 days on average. I bet we go above easily this summer, unfortunately.

    I had my first DD Iced coffee of the season on my mid-morning break. I usually go “hot”. It really hit the spot right away! Aaaaaaah! 😀

  26. Torrential rain is always fun when you had your cars inspected and had left all windows open.

    Temp dropped to 80 though

      1. SAK. I know metereologically speaking this scenario is obviously possible, but i guess when every summer a model shows a direct hit to SNE it never comes to fruition. so i am just saying that based on gut feeling and based on odds. I would love to experience a cat 1 hurricane so i never did before.

        1. If you want to play odds, then we are LONG overdue for one. The averages say we get a landfalling hurricane once every 9 years in New York or New England. It’s been 29 years – the 2nd longest on record we’ve ever gone without a landfall.

          And no, you do not want to experience a Category 1 Hurricane. Unless of course you enjoy not having power for a week or two in the summer or having a tree blown into your house or on your car.

          As a colleague once remarked to me (granted it was about a tornado, not a hurricane): “You hate to see them actually hit anywhere, because the destruction anf suffereing is heart-wrenching, but gosh they really are fun to look at, aren’t they?”

          (TK – this quote was from someone we both knew at Lowell who is no longer with us)

        2. I tend to feel the same, Kane, and do understand where you are coming from and absolutely agree

      1. I don´t think so. Looking at the satellite, I feel like the clouds are also bubbling up in CT.

        I also wonder if the south Coast seabreeze, which is very evident on the visible satellite, may add convergence in combination with the cool front slowly settling SE.

        I wonder if central/northeast CT, central and northern RI and the south shore keep getting waves of training showers and storms throughout the rest of the day ??????

  29. Couple tweets from Ryan Hanrahan on our next potential named storm
    We’re watching a developing tropical system in the Atlantic that is forecast to become Tropical Storm Isaias. This one looks like it may menace the east coast of the US so we’ll be watching it carefully for you.

    One of the questions with future Isaias is where does it track? If it’s over Hispaniola it likely struggles. If it’s farther north it has the potential to intensity more as it heads toward the Bahamas.

  30. It’s 86 here but it feels like it got hotter since the very brief & light rain shower activity

    1. Why? It;s WAY too early to determine how strong it will get. Remember, no model had Hanna making hurricane strength until 18 hours before it actually became a hurricane. Models (and humans) still have significant struggles in forecasting the strength of tropical systems.

  38. Small pocket of very dry air rushing in behind humidity boundary around Logan and Norwood, with dp´s of 48F and 52F and respective RH´s of 28 and 34%.

    Perhaps the pooled humidity ahead of the front is produced by robbing the air of humidity just behind the front ? And then, further northwest away from the front, the dp´s recover 60F. Alrighty then !

    1. The humidity ahead of the front was just a humid air mass. The dry air behind the front was a new air mass, but some of the dryness was enhanced by downsloping. Behind that, the more widespread relatively drier but not as dry as the downsloped air will take over. Fluid circulation. Always keep that first and foremost in your mind when trying to understand these things. It will help.

  39. Beautiful night sitting out on the deck at our house here at Stowe. Sky full of stars and temps down to 60. Humidity way down compared to last night.

    1. And we may be making that road trip to Ben and Jerry’s tomorrow Tom…we are about 3 miles from there!

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