DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 5-9)
The impact from TS Isaias speaks for itself today in the power outages and damage (mainly downed trees and tree limbs) to clean up. Largely, the system behaved about as expected, with top wind gusts in the expected range. A good deal of the strongest wind not only came with the main convective line that passed through late in the day, but after it as well, as the storm was rapidly transitioning to post tropical, which expands its wind field. But in terms of sensible weather, that is now beyond us, and we look ahead. Today will be a warm and somewhat humid day and a weak trough moving through from the west may set off a shower or 2, but look for a generally rain-free day. High pressure builds in Thursday, centered north of the region it will provide a broad onshore flow and comfortable air. This high retreats as a low pressure disturbance passes south of the region Friday, but close enough to bring cloudiness and a shower threat. I’ve expected this shower threat to favor the South Coast region, but looking things over this morning make me believe the high may retreat enough that at least a minor shower threat exists anywhere in the region. This will be pushed back out of here Saturday as the high pressure area drifts back to the south, though it may take some time, and even as it dries out, we may set up some sea breeze convergence enough to pop a few afternoon showers on Saturday. High pressure will be in firm control with great August weather on Sunday.
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Slight risk of a passing shower. Moderately humid. Highs 82-89. Wind W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 62-69. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming NE-E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 60-67. Wind E to SE under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers, favoring the South Coast. Lows 61-68. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Early clouds and a shower risk South Coast, otherwise partly to mostly sunny but the slight risk of a pop up afternoon shower favoring southern and eastern areas. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing sea breezes.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, cooler some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 10-14)
High pressure shifts to the south with an increase in humidity and a risk of showers/t-storms during the August 10-13 period, highest risk around August 12-13 with a frontal boundary in the region. High pressure builds in with drier weather to end the period.
DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 15-19)
A warm front may push through early in the period with cloudiness and perhaps a shower as high pressure retreats to the northeast. Look for a flat ridge of high pressure mainly south of the region and a jet stream to the north which would be a warm to hot pattern with mainly dry weather here. Will have to watch a frontal boundary to the north.