Monday August 24 2020 Forecast (9:15AM)

72 Comments

Commentary…

First a word on general media’s handling of something. You all know how I feel about the media these days. It may be opinion, but it’s pretty accurate opinion when I say that there is so much unnecessary hype out there. This is not about information folks. It’s about hype. If you want to inform people, you don’t tell them a week in advance as the most important news story of the day that we could possibly see history by having 2 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time, for the first time in recorded history. That doesn’t accomplish anything other than getting people in a frenzy. I’m going to shorten this by suggesting that you google the phrase “two hurricanes gulf of mexico” and reading some of the headlines, even as of just a few hours ago, which now have had to back away from the “two hurricanes” hype since that’s not going to happen, and still push things like “unprecedented back to back threats target Louisiana”, when even that may still not be quite how it unfolds. I’m not going to downplay the potential impact of Marco, which will likely bring some flooding to New Oreleans, that city whose brilliant designers thought it was a great idea to put an entire city below sea level next to a hurricane-breeding bathtub. Marco’s center may never actually make a full landfall, certainly not as a hurricane, as wind shear, as the meteorologists on this blog had predicted, is doing a number on that storm as it approaches. Granted, you don’t need a powerful storm from a wind standpoint for it to be dangerous. Even tropical depressions that don’t make landfall can cause serious flooding. But my point here isn’t that, it’s that we’re getting a firsthand example again of putting the unnecessary “expectation” in the public’s collective heads that this was going to be one of two hurricanes. It’s not. It simply is not. So now while people are stuck thinking these headlines from 5 days ago are still true, will they actually have known the struggle that Laura has been going through trying to stay together as a tropical storm while traversing the mountainous terrain of the Greater Antilles? Probably not, because it’s all about what it’s going to do later. I get that. And I don’t have a problem with warning people in advance about possibilities either. That’s part of what we, as meteorologists, should be doing, albeit responsibly. And I think the responsible thing at this point, now that we know that there is no such thing as a “double hurricane” or a “fujiwara megastorm” (or do some of us still not?), is to focus on what both of these systems are doing, and what we know they will do, and what we know they may do, from a level-headed meteorological standpoint. Yes, it’s quite possible that Laura may organize itself and intensify rather quickly once in the Gulf of Mexico and even become a major hurricane that threatens the Gulf Coast. But will it be Louisiana? Its center could very well never touch that state, although that would still not take the threat away from the state either. But we may have to shift focus to the Upper Texas Coast too, and what if Laura took a more unexpected turn north sooner. Would we have to possibly talk about an impact east of Louisiana? Yes we have wonderful technology and ability to predict weather, but it doesn’t always quite go as expected. We’ve even seen that locally with 3 short-range model failures in the last week alone trying to predict the coverage and severity of thunderstorms in our region. The focus on weather news needs to shift away from far fetched potentials to more responsible advising. Wrong way: “Two hurricanes could be in the Gulf next week – first time ever!” Right way: “There is the potential for two tropical systems to impact portions of the Gulf Coast in several days. All residents should monitor the progress of these systems and be ready to take action if directed to do so.” I realize that the second statement doesn’t carry the excitement and isn’t as “sexy” as the first one, but it’s the right way to say it. Oh, by the way, are you people getting ready for the day-before-election-day asteroid? I mean, it’ll be the first time ever that an asteroid has a 0.1% chance of hitting Earth the day before a presidential election! 😉

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 24-28)

Discussion…

We’ve reached the last full week of August, and there’s a variety of weather on the menu, from some heat and humidity to thunderstorms to a taste of fall, and maybe even some tropical remnants. While the drought continues, we do at least have a few more opportunities to get at least some relief, even though I still believe we’re in it for a longer term. Time will tell. But coming back to the more immediate, it will be a very warm and humid start to the week today, and like yesterday, we’ll once again have to watch for the development of showers and thunderstorms. While short range forecasts have not been stellar at times the last several days, I do feel that today’s activity will end up a little less potent than yesterday with a little less energy available to fire the storms. Regardless, any storms that form can still be strong, produce gusty winds and brief flooding, frequent lightning and again some hail, so we should be on the look-out for that threat today. Tuesday, that warm and humid air mass will still be in place to start, but a strong cold front is going to cut into it and trigger more showers and storms as it cuts across the region, with timing mostly during afternoon and evening. There will be the potential for some severe weather with these storms. Behind this front will come a refreshing Canadian air mass for Wednesday, which will boldly tell you that autumn is not that far away. A warm front will approach on Thursday, bringing clouds back into the region. I still think the daylight hours will stay mainly dry, but some shower activity may occur by evening or at night as the front crosses the region. Friday ends up warmer and more humid, with some clouds lingering about, and possibly thickening up again later as remnant moisture from one or both tropical systems finds its way into the jet stream and makes a run for the Northeast. It remains to be seen how impactful that moisture will be here, but that will be something to watch during the week.

Details…

TODAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Any thunderstorms may contain gusty wind, torrential rain, frequent lightning, and small hail. Highs 83-90. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Variably cloudy afternoon with showers and thunderstorms likely from northwest to southeast. Any thunderstorms may be strong to severe with potential damaging wind and isolated instances of large hail. Highs 82-89. Dew point middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Dew point falling to upper 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 72-79. Dew point falling through 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear except patchy ground fog in low elevations. Lows 47-54. Dew point lower to middle 40s. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Late-day or nighttime showers or rain possible. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

A disturbance will be moving across the region August 29 with a shower and thunderstorm threat and possibly some enhanced rainfall, depending on remnant moisture from tropical systems. High pressure builds in with cooler/drier weather August 30-31 with a fabulous end to the month of August and meteorological summer. September gets underway with high pressure overhead then shifting offshore producing fair weather and a warming trend. Timing of next system is uncertain but may end up with a shower threat before the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

High pressure offshore strengthens early in the period with above normal temperatures but some risk of a few showers and thunderstorms as well. A frontal boundary in the region may continue the chance for showers at times thereafter.

72 thoughts on “Monday August 24 2020 Forecast (9:15AM)”

    1. Another extreme year to consider is 1888.

      Everyone knows about the big blizzard in March, but during hurricane season, we had the following systems impact New England:

      A hurricane with 80 mph winds crossed Nantucket and Chatham on September 26 before becoming extratropical near Eastport, ME

      A weakening tropical storm with 45 mph winds passed just south of Nantucket on October 12

      A late-season hurricane became extratropical off the NC coast, but still had max winds of 90 mph when the center passed just east of Nantucket on November 27.

      That’s just up here. That doesn’t even count the Category 1 hurricane that hit Texas in June, the Cat 3 in August that slammed Miami before moving into the Gulf and hitting Louisiana as a Cat 2, or the Category 2 that hit the Big Bend Florida in October. There was also a Category 3 in early September that crossed the southern Bahamas and northern Cuba before crossing the Yucatan as a Category 1, then strengthened back into a hurricane in the Bay of Campeche before another landfall in southeastern Mexico.

      1. Definitely a lot of big years that seem to have been forgotten in favor of things we just see better now….

  5. Thanks TK.
    For my laugh of the day from the Farmers’ Almanac for winter 2020-2021. Could this be the year they get something right?

    Snowy Comeback
    Remember last year’s almost snow-free winter in the Northeast? Well, this year our prediction is very different, with the possibility of a blizzard hitting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states during the second week of February. This storm may bring up to 1-2 feet of snow to cities from Washington, D.C. to Boston, Massachusetts!

    1. I saw the map from TOFA. It’s HORRENDOUS. I can’t believe how bad that map is. The phrasing and wording on it is beyond stupid. It’s become a pure cartoon / comedy. Forget the actual weather forecast. When someone showed me that map (I don’t own a copy) I thought they were joking at first and showing me something they found on the net that was a weather map parody. No. It is actually in TOFA. I’m extremely disappointed. We’ll get a link to that map up soon. It’s terrible.

    2. Oh and I”m glad they are talking about snowfall accumulations for a storm they think will hit a half year away. Nothing like getting a jump on the snowfall maps. 😉

  7. Thanks TK, completely agree on the commentary.

    Not surprisingly, Marco is collapsing on approach to the Gulf Coast. It may actually dissipate before making an official landfall, but most of the weather is removed well northeast of the center.

    Laura is in rough shape after interacting with Cuba. It survived Hispaniola ok, but Cuba took a greater toll. The storm is “hollow”, lacking a well-defined inner core and with a broad area of 30-40 kt winds and pressures of near to just below 1000mb. That structure will prevent much if any intensification the next 24-36 hours. However, the center is over water now, and while it will clip Cuba again before entering the Gulf, will be mainly over water to stay from here. It probably has no more than 72 hours to landfall. It’s really just a race against time; if it can build an inner core in the next 48 hours or so, rapid intensification into a major hurricane remains distinctly possible. I would say anywhere from a Cat 1 to Cat 4 at landfall is reasonable… obviously not a very helpful insight.

    1. WxW…

      Thanks! And I’m glad you point that out yet again because it’s important for the met. media to emphasize that even if Marco “dies” or doesn’t make landfall officially, that rain can still be a
      real issue, all bad designing and building ideas aside.

      And your insight on Laura is very helpful. It highlights things that you, JMA, SAK, and myself point out all the time about the unknowns of weather. We know the model forecasts for Laura going into the Gulf may be pretty bad, and that we can indeed see an explosive intensification. We also have to keep in mind the times we have seen such intensification episodes make a storm under weaker steering flow track a bit more left of forecast track. This may be a factor in eventually having Texas in a higher threat area than Louisiana. Something to watch closely. Thanks again today and always for your input here. It’s very much appreciated!

  8. Ok here they are. These are about as bad as it gets. Although every time I say that I seem to find something worse. Thanks to SAK for pointing these out to me. I’d been in no rush to read any forecasts from any almanacs this year, and now I know why (again)…

    USA “forecast” map: https://scontent-bos3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/118415228_10158733661462265_4311762840507569774_o.jpg?_nc_cat=105&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=oA6UWBd–EoAX9s0ydL&_nc_ht=scontent-bos3-1.xx&oh=a987d7879879da79c4eb20c09c07adb0&oe=5F687E2D

    Canada “forecast” map: https://scontent-bos3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/118158547_10158733661757265_8799391920649894535_o.jpg?_nc_cat=108&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=HCFXfR15-KAAX8lWCUp&_nc_ht=scontent-bos3-1.xx&oh=6463db4f78ad3d06b071ce24326c341d&oe=5F6ABD42

    Once I caught my breath after laughing, I was pretty much at a loss for words on these abysmal displays that are actually mean to be taken seriously…. seriously. 😛

  9. Old Farmers’ Almanac calls for sheets of sleet for our area this coming winter while the Farmers’ Almanac is calling for cold and snowy conditions.
    TK your crystal ball is better than both the almanacs and I know it is very early but what is your feeling on winter 2020-2021?

    1. Sheets of sleet. I still can’t get over that one. I just posted the link for those really bad maps. Have a good laugh. 🙂

    2. My feeling on Winter 2020-2021 is “colder than summer 2020, and more snow than summer 2020”. 😉 … Hard to say. La Nina in forecast. Many of them have been dry/mild. But some of them have been damn snowy. We’ll have to watch the other indices and pay attention to the pattern this autumn. Check back with me in mid November. 😉

        1. Just the pattern in general. Wet vs. dry. Cold vs. warm. It’s not a perfect correlation, but many times an established pattern in late October through November can carry into winter. Educated guess: works 3/4 of the time, but some may argue against this. I have an open mind about it. SAK, JMA, WxW will agree with me though that forecasting long range is hardly better than flipping a coin in many instances. Yes we can get some general ideas, but there are so many factors that determine the outcome, many of which we won’t see in advance. So the more detailed you get, the more likely it will look like a bad forecast. 😉

  11. This is an email that I received from a very experienced colleague and a long time forecaster. This person’s thoughts I often very much agree with. They have asked to remain anonymous, and I am going to honor that request 100%. If you ask me to reveal who it is, I won’t answer, so don’t bother with the inquiry. They don’t want their name posted here. 😉

    Here’s the email. I’m not sure if the links sent in it will work but the general idea is just the wording contained in the message.

    Marco was never that impressive on satellite. Only reached minimal hur
    strength, and now it’s getting torn apart by shear. LLCC fully exposed
    now, and it might not even make landfall. Either way, overall impact
    here should be minimal, so not the doomsday 1-2 punch as hyped for the
    Gulf Coast.

    Laura has been struggling all along. Yes, it held together well over
    Hispaniola, but that b/c it didn’t have much to lose. A large weak
    system encountering an island with tall mountains is not the same
    as an intense system with a tight inner core doing the same (Isaias same
    situation as Laura). Also, the upper-level outflow yesterday for Laura was
    quite good. However, today northerly shear has degraded the sat
    appearance, and it is a mess. Yes, it should eventually get it act together
    in the GOMEX, but Macro and Laura continue the trend of ATLC systems
    that have struggled almost continuously throughout a large part of their
    existence, and Macro ends up being another “junk” storm overall, not
    getting that intense, struggled with shear and dry air a significant part of
    its existence, and doesn’t contribute to seasonal ACE much.

    Does anyone find this odd? Where are the long-track classic intense
    Cabo Verdes? No hurricanes in the MDR yet.

    Here is a GOES-16 EIR loop on August 18th showing a robust wave
    over western Africa. I realize the parallax makes the cloud tops look
    colder than that actually are, but nevertheless, it was a decent wave.
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/18gCoMbIRVuiJbOe1kEVfRcLEsof6CYVT/view?usp=sharing

    And this is what it looked like on August 22nd. All the convection is
    gone. Seems like the SAL did a number on it.
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CInDEDq51Amti0bQh6RbrUvDfSYFRp1C/view?usp=sharing

    So would you expect such a dramatic suppression of a strong tropical
    wave now that the peak season has started for the ATLC? It just
    seems a bit too dramatic when the MDR overall parameters are good.
    Even in the absence of favorable MJO phase, it doesn’t necessarily
    mean the MDR activity is across the board suppressed, or at least not
    this suppressed.

    Attached is an ATLC GOES-16 split window image 24/12z. The SAL is
    alive and well in much of the subtropics and tropics. Also attached is an
    ATLC WV image from 24/12z. Very dry air at mid-levels cutting S right
    through the western MDR, and the upper low NE of the Lesser Antilles is
    forecast to move WSW and be in the central Caribbean in a few days.
    That’s going to shut down any activity in this area.

    Another image attached is the 24/06z GFS 84 hr 250 mb fcst showing
    another upper low NE of the Lesser Antilles with its shear axis extending
    to Trinidad. This may limit significant TC development in the MDR this
    coming week. This would bring us to the end of August.

    There are Atlantic seasons where many TCs significantly develop well E
    of the Lesser Antilles, and seasons where you get more “home grown”
    TCs in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. We seem to have an odd hybrid
    season thus far, w/ many short-lived tropical storms and a number not
    forming in the tropics or subtropics, TCs in the MDR struggling, and all our
    hurricanes either in the GOMEX or off the SEUS coast. You would think by
    now we’d have at least one or two long-tracked strong Cabo Verde
    hurricanes. Many Augusts have had them.

    So I asked this question, can there be “too much of a good thing”, for the
    lack of a better phrase, present? As I mentioned before, we had early
    season indications that were at record or near record levels. Can this result in
    other factors being introduced when we are in record territory? For instance,
    the SAL. It seems to be sticking around and a factor still, what if it ends
    up not waning like it typically does this time of the year and continues into
    Sep? That would continue to have significant impacts on TCs in the MDR,
    regardless of the MJO phase. Or a persistence of TUTTs near and in the MDR,
    like we are going to see the next 4-5 days?

    I realize there may be no real answer to my questions here, but looking at
    recent weeks and the here and now, you can’t help wonder something might be
    awry (i.e. some happening we have yet to observe large-scale in an Atlantic TC
    season). The atmosphere is full of surprises!

  12. NHC is still calling Marco a 50 mph tropical storm. Recon found a couple of winds to that strength in a thunderstorm well northeast of the center, but no tropical-storm force winds elsewhere. It’s basically a tropical depression now, and will dissipate in the next 12-24 hours, as many models started showing yesterday.

    During a conversation with TK Friday night, I made the comment that “SW Shear is going to rip that sucker apart before it gets to Texas” (when the models were still showing a track towards Texas). I only wish that I had put that in my blog, since that is what actually is happening.

    1. Can’t say I’m surprised they still have it as a 50 MPH TS. Fits right in with what they’ve been doing pretty much all season. But yes, that’s the exactly what you said in that conversation. and I sarcastically add this: “Yeah, but the models!”

  13. “Sheets of sleet”. I’ll have to remember this one when we get the typical transition from snow to rain/rain to snow and post that new term here. 😉

    I would be curious if an actual met came up with that for the Almanac.

    Just wondering: Does the Almanac actually hire meteorologists for their forecasts? Or merely weather enthusiasts?

    1. I’ve lost track of what they do. The weather forecasts were never worth anything to begin with but most people knew that. Now, it’s just the more dramatic looking or stupidly worded something is, the more believable it seems to be. It’s perplexing. I’m waiting for the first person to ask me “So I heard that we’re going to have a record amount of sleet this winter. The almanac said so!” … You wait, it’ll happen. I’d love to give the general population credit for being smarter than that, but I can’t. They prove it over, and over, and over, and over. But again, it starts with the people who are actually putting out the rubbish that passes for good product these days.

  15. Also if I recall just about every predictor and almanac called for higher than normal snow for Massachusetts last year and, well, we see how well months long range guesstimations work out for New England. The only sure thing you can forecast is egg on your face if you make any bold sweeping predictions for four month blocks of time.

    1. Well, last year, the almanac based in Maine called for the snow to be above normal like they do every year and the one based in New Hampshire was more conservative. The New Hampshire based almanac, The Old Farmer’s Almanac, was closer to correct, but pretty much for the wrong reasons. If you make a forecast for the winter ahead that is complete in August, when it is the weather between October and November that help most determine the pattern going into the winter, then any accuracy that you have is pretty much pure luck.

      1. Nature has a way of going “oh… so that’s what you expect will happen in three months? Hahaha yeah, ok. Let’s see about that.” I think weather watching would be boring if everything went according to plan. lol

  16. I was informed by a Wakefield resident that the police department there has been telling residents that the damage yesterday was caused by a small tornado. Since when has it become the job of a local police department to determine whether or not a tornado has occurred? this is the second time, that I know of, that this has happened in our area this summer.

      1. I used to say it kiddingly, but I’m not sure if I can even kid about the emerging fact that ignorance and stupidity and irresponsibility are becoming more dangerous than the weather itself.

  17. And so it begins. Some convection firing now. Some North of Hartford and some SW of Lowell. We shall see.

  18. I forgot how fast a thunderstorm can develop in the mountains.

    Not a severe thunderstorm, just a garden variety summer storm, but it was a small cumulus cloud on the northwest horizon and as it passed north of Conway, the cloud grew quickly and then there were a couple sharp rumbles.

    Pretty neat.

  20. Since the police are now acting as meteorologists, does that mean that meteorologists are now authorized to…

    2. I’ve always wanted to know what it was like to pull someone over. I have a blue flashing light that would be illegal for me to use in my vehicle. 😉 (Don’t worry, not happening.)

  22. Storms seem to be firing over Attleboro, sliding east into Norton and into our neck of the woods.

    1. I’m a fan of PW. Been using it more myself, and less and less TTidbits. That site’s performance leaves very much to be desired.

  24. Just for the record at Logan yesterday:

    1.33 inches

    Trace of “snowfall” (Hail)

    I would be curious if Logan (or Boston) ever recorded 0.1” of Hail. That would actually be recorded as actual “snowfall” for the upcoming winter season. 😉

    2. The “Snow Year” goes July 1 through June 30, but SAK is correct. And there is always a note that it’s hail, not snow, should it happen at any location, even though it goes into the “column” that is reserved for frozen precipitation. We know that the synoptic conditions that produce it are vastly different than what makes it snow.

      1. Thanks SAK/TK. I will look forward to perhaps someday Logan receive that 0.1” Hail. Since it has yet to occur in its history, I assume it is somewhat difficult for that much to fall there.

        1. They only way they’d get 0.1 inch of hail is if the hail was the size of bb’s. Probably will never happen. “Accumulating” hail is rather rare and takes place in more extreme situations that we don’t often see around here. You’re more likely to see something like that in the Midwest, Plains, or South (but not Florida).

  26. The same storm has been “stuck” over Seekonk and Rehoboth for the better part of the last hour. We have been in a Warning since 1:43 pm.

    1. A good friend of mine has been in that storm, mobile. She just moved south to get a better look at it from outside the rain/hail.

    2. I have been hearing the thunder for a while and it is just to the south of me. Radar estimates look to be closing on 4 inches.

  27. NHC still has Marco as a TS. It’s not even a depression. It’s dissipated. They will say that in a couple more updates though.

    The rain is over the FL Panhandle. It’s a mostly cloudy and breezy day with a few showers in southern Louisiana. And that’s all she wrote on that system. I’ll refrain from saying anything further… EXCEPT THIS: Remember that wind shear us meteorologists were talking about when the media was busy hyping up a big storm? The results speak for themselves.

  30. Hi all!
    This is my annual post even though I am lurking here every day, I am usually too busy with work during the day and too tired at night to post.
    Anyways, here goes.
    The Charlie Hole….real or imagined!
    In April we moved from Peabody to North Providence R.I.
    So, I am still learning about the different climate here.
    Vicki….my wife has your DNA….loves to see a good thunderstorm as long as it doesn’t hurt people.
    This summer has had lots of lines of showers,,,,,some even severe. My wife is really getting angry at me because every time it looks like we are going to get a good one, either the line splits just before arrival or dies our at the border.

    Last night was a great example. As you know there was an impressive line approaching us from the north. I said jokingly to my lovely wife…..watch…it will put on it’s brakes just before it gets here…maybe around Pawtucket and then turn left or right or dissipate. Sure enough,,,,,brakes went on just before arriving here and then completely dissipated.

    So, is my very own Charlie Hole a meteorological phenomenon or just bad luck?

    Today happened again……just missed us to the northeast.

    I hope someone has the answer so that my marriage can continue to be happy.
    And you should all be proud of what you do here…amazing education and fun.

    1. It has happened for a multitude of reasons and it just happened to be that you were where the storms were not…

      For example, last night’s activity which had formed nicely to the north had created its own boundary to ride along, but that boundary came to a halt eventually and stopped firing new cells, except for a while further west, so what was left of the activity became more elevated and just slide along to the east in the mid and upper level winds.

      Today, there was a bit of a sea breeze boundary that initially helped things fire off, and then the storms again, in a smaller scale way, created their own points of redevelopment via their outflow boundaries, and it just so happened that one of those points of new storm development was not over you. That can sometimes be related to topography in the region. I’m not sure that was the case either of the last 2 days though. Weather is very complex, even on a localized scale.

  32. “Tropical Storm” Marco has made landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River. It’ll be just a swirl of low clouds soon. Oh wait, it already is.

    A couple of members of the ECMWF Ensemble are rather humorous with Laura. One brings it back off the coast near NC next week, stalls it out, then sends it back into NC as a tropical storm. Another has it move off the coast then head south, become a hurricane again, move into the Bahamas, then make landfall in south Florida.

    Oh, and many of the members have it develop a storm that crosses the Atlantic and heads toward the Southeast around Labor Day (a few members bring it into the Gulf).

    All speculation now, but something to keep an eye on once we’re done with Laura.

  35. There will not be a lot of wind shear in the Gulf Of Mexico to tear Laura apart. Marco thankfully there was enough wind shear present to disrupt it.

  36. Let’s not sleep on Thursday thunderstorm potential.
    Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    Thursday’s severe weather threat appears to be the most interesting at this point. Strong low and deep layer wind shear plus at least some instability. Stay tuned!

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