Sunday August 30 2020 Forecast (7:49AM)

43 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 30- SEPTEMBER 3)

Discussion…

High pressure, building toward the region from the west and over the region Monday, brings two very nice days to end the month of August, although today will be on the breezy side. Then high pressure shifts offshore, first far enough north to keep temperature in check during the first couple days of September before it heats up by Thursday. A coule fronts will try to make it into the region as we approach mid week but will have trouble pushing all the way through.

Details…

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point falling through 50s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny, but some high cloudiness later in the day. Highs 75-82. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Dew point middle 50s. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of a few showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 72-79. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

Predominant pattern as high pressure aloft off the East Coast. For us, very warm September 4, a bit cooler September 5 as a front pushes through, then mainly near to above normal temperatures thereafter. Limited shower chances.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

Overall large scale pattern doesn’t change too much with a warmer than average temperature regime overall and a few, but limited shower chances. We’ll have to continue to pay attention for any tropical activity in the western Atlantic.

43 thoughts on “Sunday August 30 2020 Forecast (7:49AM)”

  5. Thank you TK!

    And Thank you Laura for your contribution as well.

    0.07 at Logan

    A met on Ch. 7 showed a rainfall map and the entire I-95 corridor from Boston to Providence literally in a classic Charlie Hole.

  6. Thanks, TK!
    Good morning, y’all!

    Luscious morning! Ahhhh!

    Back to school tomorrow for 10 days of in-person teacher PD. Starting my 38th year!

    First commute to work since March 12. I hope I can remember where my school is!

    1. Best wishes, Captain. I lost track of what options you have. I do know that even with full remote(After first two weeks) here that teachers are going to teach from school.

      1. Thanks for your kind words, Vicki!

        We are going with hybrid. Starting on Tuesday, September 15, we will start teaching the kiddos. 10th and 11th graders will be one cohort; 9th and 12th graders in the other. World languages will be teaching the sophs and juniors, meaning I won’t see the freshmen and seniors till about February 1.

        I will be teaching in-person Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays on Week A and Mondays and Tuesdays on Week B. The other five days will be teaching from home, although the DESE wants all staff in their respective buildings every day regardless whether they see their students or not. I am not sure if and/or how that can/will happen.

        1. My goodness, Captain, that has my head spinning. I cannot say enough to thank each and every teacher and all staff members and bus drivers. I know a good portion of summer was spent trying to perfect something without really having a clue what that something is

  7. CF, good luck tomorrow. We all appreciate what you and all the other teachers on this blog do.

    Thank you for the forecast, TK. Was hoping the storms would make it to the coast. Alas. Maybe a little rain here this week from Tuesday to Thursday.

    I hope you’re right about Chara, TK. It would be nice to have one more season of his presence as a send-off. He deserves it. I’ve met him a few times at the local Whole Foods. He’s a class act. Always accessible. Really loves being in Boston and is quite the outdoorsman. Likes biking in the White Mountains. That’s what he told me.

  8. Very breezy & cool conditions up here in NH. Time to leave at noontime it was fun & I will definitely be Back maybe some recovery time up here after my knee clean out .

  9. CF… Thanks to you and all of the teachers! A friend of mine is teaching in CA, just getting back into the “new” routine while enjoying a rare moderate air quality day after many poor ones, very close to where some of those fires have been burning.

    1. Thanks, Tom, and the same back attacha, amigo. What is your plan for the opening of school?

      1. Thanks Captain. Not familiar with the lingo these days. Maybe teachers called it something else back in the day, if they had any special days set aside for themselves at all.

        1. Neither am I, Philip. Believe me when I tell you I get a headache at a staff meeting when people speak in acronyms! I have no idea what anyone is talking about! :0

  12. Our district’s focus for the restart for staff and students is Well-Being, Relationships and then, Learning, in that order.
    I will be happy if we are in a settled in a relatively normal routine by Halloween.

    1. Speaking of Halloween, I hope the kids can have that this year. IMO “trick-or-treat” can happen as long as there is social distancing among groups and spacing in line to wait for candy much like in supermarkets etc. I imagine it will be up to individual towns of course. I hope there will be no need for Gov. Baker to get involved and not allow it anywhere.

    2. That makes great sense. The first two weeks in Sutton are hybrid. Then full remote except three lowest grades. The Initial two weeks Are to get to know teachers and vice versa. My oldest Grand in Sutton has a phenomenal liaison when school went remote in spring. He is also a math teacher. He has already reached out and it seems he will be grandsons liaison through middle school.

      Tom and Captain. I’ve said before that any student who has you for their teacher is truly fortunate.

  13. Speaking of droughts, today’s quiz.

    Where is the driest (non-polar) desert on Earth?
    A. Sahara
    B. Atacama
    C. Syrian
    D. Gobi

    Answer later today.

    4. B. The Atacama desert in Chile. some areas have not seen rainfall in over 500 years mainly due to the Andes and the fact its a plateau around 16,800 feet so lower level Pacific moisture can’t reach it.

  14. Ensemble trends today show quite a bit of cooler than average temperature type air for central Canada and into the northern and central Plains and Midwest as we progress into and through the first 10 days of September, just in time for a bit more ridging off the East Coast to keep New England warmer than average (overall) with short-lived cooler shots. This also leaves the East Coast somewhat vulnerable to tropical activity should it be in the right location. Luckily, the overall pattern prevents major storms from forming for a while. We may have a minor system form and potentially head into northeastern Central America, while another, as my colleague calls it, “junk storm” forms off the East Coast and moves out to sea immediately (similar to Kyle). For reasons explained earlier, the Cape Verde season, so far, is a big failure. This is a good thing. Ironically, Laura was an anomaly because she survived Cuba and found just the right combo of conditions in the Gulf of Mexico at the right time, right after they had been far more hostile.

  15. Today’s model whining from me-4 days ago the ECMWF had our summer ending August 28th with no more days in the 80s both in the op and then further our with its ENS mean.

    More than a few “experts” called it an end to summer. Forgetting the ECMWF’s penchant for out living reality when it comes to depth / duration of any system / pattern. Think advertisement of 3 day snowstorms or 5 days where the temperatures don’t get out of the teens in the winter.

    By today’s 12z run there are 80 degree and above highs in parts of SNE 9/2, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6, 9/7, 9/8. Nothing crazy but nice early September warmth with a returning southerly flow, occasionally interrupted by Canadian short waves dropping down.

    Speaking of experts (real ones)-I must give praise to SAK who was very much on target with the idea that rain would be more widespread in late August. I thoughts thunderstorms and tropical remnants could give us more than we have had, but many areas in our region have received 1-3″ of rain over the last 10 days. Some outliers have received more and a few places, Bedford, for sure Hyannis and the Cape have received less.

    Always good to see the healthy exchange of opinions.

  16. Just a simple observation, but FWIW, the NWS zone forecast for Boston has zero precipitation for the coming 7 days, while the national voices have indicated above normal precipitation. 🙂

    1. Agree with your above tropical storm thinking, but they sure are bouncing off the African coast one after another. Not sure if we are at, below or above for the number coming off the Sahara this season.

      1. What’s bouncing off the coast of Africa are tropical disturbances, which is very normal for the Cape Verde season. But the conditions for those developing this season have been abysmal. Out of all the named storms we’ve had, only about 4 have originated as semi-classic waves and only one of them became a major storm, but not until it was nearly ready to make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico, and only because the conditions within the gulf were perfect for re-organization and rapid intensification of a storm that was nearly torn to shreds just before that.

        As far as the number of waves exiting Africa for the CV season, we’re right about average.

  17. Celtics off to a great start today! I just hope it doesn’t end like last year in which they clobbered (Milwaukee?) in the first game and went on to lose the remaining 4 games.

    Do I have most of the facts correct? Was that the correct opponent?

  18. JMA.. With enough sun a couple locations may make a run at 90 Thursday and/or Friday I believe. Still think a bit of over-achieving model guidance is quite possible in this pattern.

    1. Agree and then again around the 7th as well but I didn’t want to write it because I am too much of a wimp and people lose their collective poop when you write 90 because it’s so much different than 87-89.

      1. Haha! Yes, around the 6th (if things are moving faster than progged) or 7th there could be another shot. September heat is not unusual. It’s still summer until late month. If you want an anomalous September, 1983 stands out like a zillion watt bulb.

        1. Lately there has been October heat as well. In the past it was rare, but now it is pretty much routine to have a Columbus Day weekend heatwave. 2017 stands out for me. The day itself was a scorcher!

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