The Week Ahead (November 14-20)

89 Comments

6:38PM

Highlights…

* Still in mild regime overall

* Warmest day: Monday

* Wettest day: Wednesday

* Windiest day: Thursday

* Coolest day: Friday

* Weekend Warm-up

Breakdown…

A weakening frontal system moves toward the region Monday, producing varying amounts of clouds and only the slight risk of a few showers in the late afternoon or evening hours.  Warm air will dominate with temperatures sitting at much above normal levels in the 60s. This front settles south of the region Tuesday allowing some sunshine mixed with clouds.  Wet  weather is expected Wednesday as the front hangs up along the coast as a wave of low pressure forms and moves northeastward along it, holding unsettled weather in. Behind this low pressure area Thursday except drier but windy and cooler weather. Continued cool weather is expected Friday but it should be a bright day under high pressure, and once this high slips offshore by the weekend it should turn milder again.

Boston Area Forecast Details…

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. High 63-68. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting around 25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered light rain showers. Low 46-51. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. High 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Low 45. High 55.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Windy. Low 35. High 48.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 47.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 32. High 53.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 43. High 62.

89 thoughts on “The Week Ahead (November 14-20)”

  2. Thanks for the update TK. I know its early but next weekend looks great!!!
    I am predicting early December for the regime change. I hope it is then since I will be done with the raking the leaves and when that chore is done I will be itching for snow.

      1. It is for me, that’s the day I am having my house insulated. Adding to the attic insulation but my walls have none.

        1. Hahahaha It’s our 33rd anniversary. And there have been some GREAT noreasters on that date including our wedding day !! Reception was at facility on Belmont hill that had an entire wall of windows looking out on fields and woods there was a huge fire in the fieldstone fireplace as we watched the snow pile up. Then we saw lightening from room at hyatt regency overlooking Charles river. My husband should have known he was in trouble then and there!!!

    2. We’re getting the occasional quick cold shots, as expected, but you may be right. I’ve seen a few hints the last few days late period on the Euro runs, but there is still too much Pacific flow to really get me excited about a pattern change at this point. We keep looking. In the mean time, enjoy the overall mild regime which, as I know you like, affords you much opportunity to finish off the leaves. I’m expecting to have mine done next Saturday, and hopefully having acquired some new extension cords, laying those out for my outside Christmas lights while the weather is still nice.

        1. I have often put my outside lights up before Thanksgiving, but I dont’ turn anything on until I’m done decorating the inside, and we do a ton in here. The date is usually December 1. 🙂

          1. I put up my outside decorations thanksgiving weekend. We have alot of airblowns, like 12. We have a turkey out front now. So Tk does It look to stay mild for the first couple weeks of december, as long as we get no snow on the fourth I will be happy.

  3. I hope tom didn’t take our advise and watch the game. It won’t make you want to watch the rest of the game. It’ll give you nightmares.

  4. 12z & 18z GFS runs today are night & day; just another example of the model’s instability. Meanwhile, the Euro is continuing to hint at pattern change getting underway late in the period. First, we see the pattern we are currently in recycling itself a couple more times, during which the SE ridge starts to weaken slightly. More importantly, the overall strength of the subtropical jet stream lessens with a stronger northern jet stream taking over. Most importantly, the SW trough is no longer there on the last few panels of the Euro from 12z. This is still not enough to convince me that full-scale change is imminent. But we also know that the current pattern cannot go on forever. For the moment, as far as models go, Euro is the guide, GFS is nothing.

    2. At least we are getting hints, and with potential major switches in the teleconnections, it could give the models a tough time.
      So did you want the GFS on or on the side of your EURO sandwich?

  5. Well, maybe I shouldnt watch any of the Pats games the rest of the season….what a pleasant surprise to see the outcome this morning !!

    55F to 60F this early morning, wow ! I see above some dates for a regime change. Bearing in mind I said I thought the Jets would win last night’s game, I’ll go with January 29th, 2012. This should ensure cold and snow by mid December. 🙂

    1. Hi Tom – they got better as soon as my husband decided to go to bed. I told him he shouldn’t watch until the season is over too 🙂 It was frustrating at the start. I listened to my son-in-law rant about Woodhead (I think) and why they keep putting him in and he never, ever, ever does that so knew something wasn’t quite right.

      I didn’t make it to the end but was very happy when I saw the results this morning. hmmm wonder if that means I shouldn’t be watching either

          1. I remember back in the 2004 ALCS vs the Yankees being up until 2am for a few nights watching those playoff games and then walking around in a daze the next days on 4 hrs of sleep. No thanks to that again, and I admit that I thought they werent going to win last night.

      1. well then that means I’ll get through two words but I’ll give it a try as I always appreciate your links!

  7. Old Salty your right that is way technical and a little over my head. I think right now its pretty clear but of course with weather things could change but winter is not going to make an appearance this month. Maybe in December that will change.

    1. JJ,

      I think You are correct. Sure not looking very wintry-like anytime soon.

      Early December???

      We shall see.

  8. I am thinking early December for the regime change but I would not be surprised if that is delayed. It does not look like it will happen before the end of this month.
    Farmers’ ALmanac 85% accurracy yeah right. Way off this month.

    1. I’d think if it were going to cool off considerably in the states, that there should be an above normal anomoly in at least western and central Alaska, indicative of a ridge up there. On the ridge’s eastern side, it might help to pick up a cold airmass up there and drive it southward. With those colder anomolies where they are, that says storminess to me and a flood of pacific air into western Canada and the US. This causes normal to below normal temps out there under the cloud cover, but once that maritime air moves further eastward, it easily warms up.

  11. I was thinking this morning about temperatures I remember from this time of year. I know when my kids were little (they range 31-25 in age) we had very cold Halloweens. But even more, Thanksgiving was always cold and not just the day but the dates well on either side. I’ve always had Thanksgiving dinner here and we’ve been able until about 5-8 years ago use the porch as our “walk in refrigerator” to keep food safely that didn’t fit in the fridge. We had a thermometer out there that read 40 or below for days prior to and after Thanksgiving and that’s with glass windows in place over the screens. I wouldn’t even consider that any more. It feels to me as if all of the seasons have shifted.

  13. I usually make Thanksgiving and this year will be no exception. So I always hope for a rather cold Thanksgiving because it gets so warm in the house. Yes, I open the windows but if the air is not that cold outside it doesn’t seem to air out as well. Not only do I make turkey, but I bake a pie and sometimes I even make turkey soup – on Thanksgiving night. I love turkey and I love turkey soup and it is economical. Friends and family bring the side dishes (I like to make the stuffing). Okay – I love to cook!

    Today was beautiful – but especially the sky. I loved how the light changed as the sun went behind the clouds and then reappeared.

    1. Rainshine. We do the same. I cook all from soup to nuts and the kids have always helped. It’ll just be us this thanksgiving but we will still have a dozen side dishes. And I love the soup too. In addition to being delicious it gives me premade meals while i spend 3 days or so decorating the inside of the house for christmas 🙂 My son has been deep frying one turkey in the yard for a few years while i do another in the oven but I think he’s passing this year so well do one big one.

      1. Vicki – this year it is going to be a couple we have been friends with for about 20 years and my mother, sister and her husband. And any leftover turkey makes extra meals – I freeze up “turkey packets”. The turkey soup also makes for many extra meals, too. Come Christmas, I make turkey again but I think I will skip the soup then. After Thanksgiving I too start decorating for Christmas. I can hardly wait for that. Although we have decorations we use every year, I still like to buy something new every year.

        I never had deep-fried turkey. Sounds interesting, but I just buy a fresh turkey and put it on some celery stalks and let it cook until done. Then I make my own gravy, too. Sounds like you will have a fun Thanksgiving. I love the holidays! 🙂

  14. Great game last night, went to bed after the 3rd. Boy was the wind howling last night. We did leaves all day today at work today, It was a mess. As you guys asked to be kept updated my heart cath test will be done on Thursday. On a down note the doctor sent me in with a note to try to kind of not over exert myself at work leading up to the test, not lift heavy things, so light duty. I was called in at 2pm to say they could not do that as they needed me 100%. Besides getting winded easily I feel fine. I told them this has been ongoing and the test is just to check things out. I do not have much vacation time so I am bummed out, to boot I am loosing overtime tomorrow morning. I wish I did not hand in that note, just trying to do the right thing. One good thing came out of it. The test was to be on Friday so I get it done a day earlier. Sorry for the rant I needed to vent.

    1. John as much as you are sorry to give them the note I’m glad you did. That way you won’t second guess whether the test was true. Hang in there. We feel the same way about using vacation time for sick time and losing OT. Shouldnt have to but it is the reality.

    2. John, good luck Thursday ! I hear you about the concerns of pay, vacation time and OT, but am glad to hear you put your health as priority #1.

  15. Tom and coastal and John talking about thanksgiving and then Christmas do you go to the Christmas stroll in Humarock. Last year steven Tyler was there and was a great sport about singing with the carolers etc.

    1. I’ll have to let my wife know about that Vicki…….Earlier this summer, we are in a restaurant in Brant Rock Village and choose a corner table to sit at. My wife then starts looking beyond me and all of a sudden, I see a strange expression on her face…….Turns out, in the table right behind me was Steven Tyler and his entourage. He was very gracious as he walked out to take a few pictures and sign a couple autographs.

      1. Tom I walked by him last year and made the comment that if I didn’t know better I’d think that was Stephen Tyler. My husband said “it was”. It’s a Fun time with a hay ride and tree lighting and caroling. I think it spans fri-sat and they have the schedule on the Humarock.net web site but I don’t think it’s there yet

        They have a polar plunge on new years day too. My son did it years ago. Well be there this year so I’m trying to get volunteers

  16. Speaking of thanksgiving let us remember the people who do not have the income to enjoy a nice dinner. If you could It would be nice to drop off some food at your local food pantry. We will be dropping off a turkey.

  17. John that is a good point and we tend to forget those people that are less fortunate. I know I give a food item each week when I go to church because its not just the holidays these people need food its all year round.

    1. You could not have said it better. That is great that your church does that. When we pass the homeless on the street some people tend to judge them the wrong way. Little do we know that person at one time may have led a great life. Maybe they lost there job, family or have some substance abuse problems. I think people may remember these kind of people during the holidays, but it is everyday that these folks with feelings need a helping hand, a hand that shows them that yes some people do care.

      1. You are right about remembering people in need all year long. We donate toys and clothes throughout the year with jackets and blankets specifically in fall. But only do food during the holidays which doesn’t make sense at all really.

  19. I don’t mind the mild weather now since yard work needs to be done but once December hits I’ll be ready for the snow. Don’t worry this will not be a repeat of last winter.

  20. I always find a way to donate food and/or money to at least a few places during the holiday season…

    Updating the blog!

  21. Low 60s this morning. Logan’s low so far today is 57F…will be interesting to see what it can drop to by midnight tonight. Yesterday and today’s anomolies are probably going to have the monthly departure up at around +5F for the first half of November.

    Meanwhile, in Alaska, it is extremely cold. Arctic Village is -42F and most interior areas are also well below zero. The Ice Road Trucking season must be getting going up there.

  22. Have to say that it seems the trees just dropped most of their leaves in the last 24 hrs.
    John best of luck in Friday.

    1. Hi Hadi – TK said they’d be gone on the 15th. I think he waved a wand because they seem to have all disappeared in the past day or two here also. The Japanese maple I mentioned in the blog last week that was red and full and lovely now doesn’t have one single leaf on it.

  23. I don’t know what is in the air along with the falling leaves. I have never had allergies until last spring and now again in the past week and can only think it has something to do with the leaves and maybe a dust or mold. I know several others with the same problems

  24. I was out with my son at the bus stop this morning and was just talking to him about how warm it is, I said it would be nice if it stayed like this. But we all know that won’t be the case. The cost of oil is soaring so it is nice to save some there. I suspect we will be in the full mode of cold weather coming within the next few weeeks. Have a great day everyone.

  26. From what I’m seeing on the morning runs of the GFS, and perhaps the EURO, a chance of light snow next Wednesday. Something to watch, as it seems like it’s been forever since it last snowed.

    1. Yes, but I know TK will say that the trough is too strong in that frame, and I’m also thinking that’s the case. Nevertheless we can monitor it.

      2. Yeah, that is why he is here, to keep things REAL! Lol

        Seriously, I didn’t see the same feature on last evening’s
        0Z Euro Run. So there you go.

        What do you think? It is GONE on the 12Z GFS run?

        Let’s see.

        1. Scott,
          I take that back. My memory is shorting out on me.

          Yes, the Euro did hint at it. Unfortunately, the Euro is
          in 24 hour increments, so it is tough to see what happens.

          But if you look at 168 hours and then 192 hours, something clearly happens between the 2. So, perhaps
          we really do have a chance.

          Then it should still appear on the GFS 12Z run.

          1. I also wasn’t sure if the EURO had it or not, but it I think it did show something as you said.
            12z GFS should be out within the next hour, but since I’m in school, I won’t be able to look at it until 12:30ish when I have access to a computer.

  29. Its been pretty boring lately here weatherwise so hopefully we could get a little excitment going with this feature. With this being so far out not excited about it.

    1. 12Z GFS has pretty much ELIMINATED that feature. A little bit of rain and then it moves on out before the colder air is entrenched.

      Oh Well. better luck next time.

  32. 12z GFS is faster with that feature, no surprise. But it seems there will be a significant cold shot behind that, although brief.
    I looked at the long range for that run, just no consistency.

      1. One thing they both have is storminess entering the west coast of the US with mildness in the center of the nation. Perhaps a mild Thanksgiving weekend to follow this system.

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