9 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – September 27 2020”
I’m going to mildly disagree with analysts and pundits who say we’re experiencing a “surge” in cases and an increase in hospitalizations and deaths. I don’t see consistent evidence of this. We’ve had several days that pointed to a significant increase in cases. But. we’ve also had several days that pointed to a decrease. My view is that the increase in cases of around 3%, if we calculate it based on a 7-day moving average, is not a surge. Moreover, hospitalizations and deaths haven’t increased, they’ve plateaued. Of course, plateauing isn’t good. As a nation, we keep plateauing at very high levels of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, instead of steadily decreasing. But, I still think it’s important to emphasize that what we’re experiencing right now is not a new nationwide surge.
BWH reported 19 cases this week. In fact, yesterday evening I received an email from them regarding that, assuring everything is ok, etc. etc.
I go there for all my medical needs. I have an appointment at one of their facilities on Wednesday as I will finally get to see my PCF for the first time since early March. Glad I saw him when I did. Unless one actually had Covid, good luck seeing a physician or dentist for awhile up to now. Finally got to see a dentist last month for cleaning.
I heard an interesting stat over the radio this morning assuming that I heard correctly.
Americans make up 5% of the world population and 20% of the Covid cases.
Haven’t posted on this thread in awhile, but just a passing observation from recent experience; I took my first air travel trip of the year this past week, a cross-country flight from Newark to Los Angeles, rescheduled from the spring. The airports themselves were very quiet compared to normal, eerily so. Not completely empty, but way down. A different story on the planes though. The flight out (a 757 with ~200 available seats) was full, maybe just one or two empty seats on the flight. The return flight had a few more empty seats but still 75-80% full. So it seems like the theme is fewer people, but also much fewer planes, so the flights are still mostly full. Everyone had a mask, though I would say only about two thirds of people were wearing them correctly or keeping them on at all times. Also, my temperature was not taken; I don’t have a whole lot of trust in those “forehead guns” that most places use, but I was surprised that it wasn’t at least being checked.
I’m not in a high risk group and generally don’t interact with anyone who is, so I’m not really worried. However, for those who are in that category, I would have concerns.
It will be interesting as to how full flights will be this Thanksgiving compared to previous years. The CDC is highly recommending against travel this upcoming holiday including Black Friday.
Thanks for reporting your flight experience, WxWatcher.
Philip, you heard (mostly) correctly. I believe the U.S. population is 4%. We make up more than 20% of Covid-19 reported deaths, and about 23% of global cases.
I’m seeing some of the latest case numbers – 7-day moving average. The increase in the past 2 weeks is now greater than 3%. It’s around 5%. And, the increase compared to 1 month ago is more than 10%. So, I stand corrected. Still, I don’t view this as a surge like we saw in the sunbelt states. We have to keep in mind that tens of thousands, perhaps even hundreds of thousands, of these new cases are being found on college campuses. The vast majority of students will either be asymptomatic or mildly ill. I’m not minimizing it, but it’s important to point this out. During the sunbelt surge, and also the one in Massachusetts and NY in March and April, the people getting tested were all symptomatic, and many were in high risk categories. Now the caseload is more diluted if you will. Of course, there are still hundreds of thousands of new cases that are symptomatic, of which some get critically ill.
WxW thank you for your input in flights. Worrisome to be sure. Please stay well
Joshua, you make me smile. Surely, trying to keep up with numbers is mind wracking. I have utmost respect for folks who rethink views.
This may be an unanswerable question. If there is a second wave, would it begin slowly as the first did and then explode?
Joshua. I forgot to say I sent you an email.
C-19 for 9-28 ready.
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I’m going to mildly disagree with analysts and pundits who say we’re experiencing a “surge” in cases and an increase in hospitalizations and deaths. I don’t see consistent evidence of this. We’ve had several days that pointed to a significant increase in cases. But. we’ve also had several days that pointed to a decrease. My view is that the increase in cases of around 3%, if we calculate it based on a 7-day moving average, is not a surge. Moreover, hospitalizations and deaths haven’t increased, they’ve plateaued. Of course, plateauing isn’t good. As a nation, we keep plateauing at very high levels of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, instead of steadily decreasing. But, I still think it’s important to emphasize that what we’re experiencing right now is not a new nationwide surge.
BWH reported 19 cases this week. In fact, yesterday evening I received an email from them regarding that, assuring everything is ok, etc. etc.
I go there for all my medical needs. I have an appointment at one of their facilities on Wednesday as I will finally get to see my PCF for the first time since early March. Glad I saw him when I did. Unless one actually had Covid, good luck seeing a physician or dentist for awhile up to now. Finally got to see a dentist last month for cleaning.
I heard an interesting stat over the radio this morning assuming that I heard correctly.
Americans make up 5% of the world population and 20% of the Covid cases.
Haven’t posted on this thread in awhile, but just a passing observation from recent experience; I took my first air travel trip of the year this past week, a cross-country flight from Newark to Los Angeles, rescheduled from the spring. The airports themselves were very quiet compared to normal, eerily so. Not completely empty, but way down. A different story on the planes though. The flight out (a 757 with ~200 available seats) was full, maybe just one or two empty seats on the flight. The return flight had a few more empty seats but still 75-80% full. So it seems like the theme is fewer people, but also much fewer planes, so the flights are still mostly full. Everyone had a mask, though I would say only about two thirds of people were wearing them correctly or keeping them on at all times. Also, my temperature was not taken; I don’t have a whole lot of trust in those “forehead guns” that most places use, but I was surprised that it wasn’t at least being checked.
I’m not in a high risk group and generally don’t interact with anyone who is, so I’m not really worried. However, for those who are in that category, I would have concerns.
It will be interesting as to how full flights will be this Thanksgiving compared to previous years. The CDC is highly recommending against travel this upcoming holiday including Black Friday.
Thanks for reporting your flight experience, WxWatcher.
Philip, you heard (mostly) correctly. I believe the U.S. population is 4%. We make up more than 20% of Covid-19 reported deaths, and about 23% of global cases.
I’m seeing some of the latest case numbers – 7-day moving average. The increase in the past 2 weeks is now greater than 3%. It’s around 5%. And, the increase compared to 1 month ago is more than 10%. So, I stand corrected. Still, I don’t view this as a surge like we saw in the sunbelt states. We have to keep in mind that tens of thousands, perhaps even hundreds of thousands, of these new cases are being found on college campuses. The vast majority of students will either be asymptomatic or mildly ill. I’m not minimizing it, but it’s important to point this out. During the sunbelt surge, and also the one in Massachusetts and NY in March and April, the people getting tested were all symptomatic, and many were in high risk categories. Now the caseload is more diluted if you will. Of course, there are still hundreds of thousands of new cases that are symptomatic, of which some get critically ill.
WxW thank you for your input in flights. Worrisome to be sure. Please stay well
Joshua, you make me smile. Surely, trying to keep up with numbers is mind wracking. I have utmost respect for folks who rethink views.
This may be an unanswerable question. If there is a second wave, would it begin slowly as the first did and then explode?
Joshua. I forgot to say I sent you an email.
C-19 for 9-28 ready.