Monday September 28 2020 Forecast (7:43AM)

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

Discussion…

High humidity and above normal temperatures through Wednesday. However, the 2 days that feel most like late summer instead of early fall will be today and Tuesday, as there will be a threat of showers but much of the time will be rain free and there will also be intervals of sunshine with all the cloudiness we have. It’s Tuesday night into Wednesday when a more solid shower threat occurs with the approach and passage of a cold front. The clouds, showers, and frontal passage will keep temperatures down a little on Wednesday over what they will be during the next two days. Many model forecasts have been bringing an additional wave of low pressure with significant rain up through the region Wednesday night into early Thursday, but I am somewhat skeptical of this. I think a wave of low pressure will occur, but as we go along I’m thinking this may be less potent and further offshore, and the details forecast will reflect that. Models have a lot of trouble sorting out disturbances and timing during transitions, and I think we will see a disturbance move through the region Friday with a chance of additional showers, although with cooler air instead of the warm and muggy weather we have for the start of this week.

Details…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few passing showers. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely and areas of fog. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Areas of fog evening. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60s falling to 50s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or showers. Highs 60-67. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Watch for a wave of low pressure that may bring some wet weather to the region at some point October 4-5, otherwise mostly dry weather is expected until the end of the period when an approaching disturbance or front brings the next risk of showers. Temperatures variable, coolest early in the period then milder late period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)

A shot of cooler air to start this period followed by a warming trend again. Generally dry weather with just minor shower risk around mid period.

30 thoughts on “Monday September 28 2020 Forecast (7:43AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Last few nights my low temperature here was only 67.

    Pretty balmy for this time of year.

    Humidity was DISGUSTING yesterday!

  2. From experience of how stuffy school buildings can get, I hope the students and staff are doing ok wearing masks in this steam bath.

    1. It’s not easy Tom . I’m mandated to wear mask even outside & with the humidity this summer it was tough

  3. Thank you, TK.

    So far, nada in the old rain bucket. Sprinkles yesterday didn’t amount to anything. Last night’s TV mets’ prediction of early morning showers … nothing, as in rien, nichts. My guess is we won’t be getting lots of rain this week. I have a feeling TK is right … again. I’ll go with Boston not getting more than a half inch of rain through Thursday.

    1. I am afraid I agree with you.
      Jacob Wycoff was hinting at substantial rain even for Boston.
      I hope that happens, but I seriously doubt it.

      We shall see. I’d go with TK on this one for sure.

  4. Got clipped by a shower coming up from Buzzards Bay/Vineyard area.

    Nice heavy shower missing to our west, perhaps headed for Boston or east Boston ?

  5. Gee….all of the models suddenly lost the Wednesday night/Thursday system, but now have it on Friday.

    Meanwhile, NWS is still going for heavy rain Wednesday night and Thursday as are most of the talking heads on TV.

      1. Well, they all miss Wednesday night and Thursday now, and all have some light rain Friday morning, so there really isn’t a choice to make at this point.

          1. They’re all pretty much in agreement there too that the bulk of the heavy rain stays in the CT Valley and up into northern New England.

  6. Humidity (dew point) levels have been elevated, as JP Dave pointed out. Wow! Put the fans away for the season, but needed one last night. Probably tonight, too. The cat’s sprawled out on the hardwood floor, something she does regularly when it’s humid.

    1. I never put my fan away before Columbus Day at the earliest. I wasn’t fooled by the brief cooldown last week.

  7. 18z NAM (12km) is down to under 0.50 inch through Thursday for Boston. Only model I’ve looked at since this morning. Very busy day (work, appointments, etc.) …

  8. Wind may be the bigger story than rain with this coming system especially in SNE. Pretty stout LLJ looks to move overhead Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Tuesday night will be exceptionally warm for this time of year, with little to no surface inversion developing. So a good chunk of that LLJ will mix down in gusts. Still quite a bit of inconsistency in terms of the strength and placement of the jet, but a “reasonable worst case scenario” would be a few hours of 40-50mph wind gusts late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Nothing terrible, but with fully leafed trees that could cause a few power outages.

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