Pattern Entering Transitional Phase (Huh?)

85 Comments

3:39PM

Before you non-meteorologists ask what a “transitional phase” is, I’ll answer what I mean. All this means is that the current weather pattern (brief cool shots followed by dominant mild weather) is breaking down, but will not settle into a brand new stable pattern just yet. It will be a battle between the departing pattern and what I believe to be the upcoming one. Evidence presents itself to me in this form: Several runs of a normally stable computer model that have not looked too much like each other, but a few starting to come into some agreement. But forget the technical for now…all this means is more changeable weather from here through Thanksgiving, and probably beyond.

Highlights…

This evening: Rain/sleet/snow

Tonight/Friday:  Shot of chilly air tonight through Friday.

Weekend: Another warm-up.

Next week: Dry & chilly start, watching a storm for midweek.

Thanksgiving peek: Will lean toward improvement as progressive storm departs.

Discussion…

A wave of low pressure moving along a frontal boundary,  of which we are on the cold side, during this evening, producing light rain which will switch to sleet & snow when it comes down a little harder and colder air works in. Don’t expect much accumulation, only minor amounts on unpaved surfaces, with most of it occurring in hilly areas west and southwest of Boston (areas to the northwest may not see heavy enough precipitation to get much).

As low pressure departs Friday, expect a bright but breezy & chilly day and a cold night. This weekend, high pressure will slide off the East Coast and a southwest wind flow means milder to warmer temperatures. Expect temperatures to crack 50 Saturday and 60 Sunday.

Another front will quietly cross the region Sunday night with little or no precipitation, followed by high pressure which will bring dry and cool weather early next week.

By the middle of next week, we’ll be needing to watch a low pressure area to the southwest. It’s too early to determine where it will track exactly, and what impact it will have on the region. But way out in advance my early feeling is that Wednesday (a big travel day) will be an unsettled day, and Thursday (Thanksgiving) will see improvement. Stay tuned…

Boston Area Forecast…

THIS EVENING (THROUGH MIDNIGHT): Overcast with rain, mixing with sleet & snow, then turning to snow in some areas before tapering off. Accumulations of up to 1/2 inch are possible on unpaved surfaces especially in hilly areas west and southwest of Boston. Temperature falling into the 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

OVERNIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT): Clearing. Low 27-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 46-51. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 27-32. Wind WSW 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 51-56. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 40-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. High 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 50.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix. Low 32. High 44.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: AM rain/snow showers. PM clearing. Low 32. High 44.

85 thoughts on “Pattern Entering Transitional Phase (Huh?)”

  1. I must say, it really feels more winter like today, glad to have it again after that very long warm spell.
    I took a look at the radar, which is not very impressive…
    I don’t think the precip will get heavy enough in most areas to drag down the colder air to support snow, but we’ll see.
    I can definitely see the pattern ending, but not sure how long it will take to fully establish a new pattern.

    1. Boston area N&W is Done as far as I can tell.

      Today was a total waste.

      Let’s see what next Wednesday brings. My gut => Rain.

  3. Miserable down this way with a steady, chilly rain. In spite of the temps falling all day, the daily climate record will report a high of 57F at Logan, which was achieved sometime after midnight. Thats about 5F above normal and with the avg low being 38F, it would have to get down to 33F by midnight at Logan to avg out normal. Thus, probably another above normal day in the books.

  4. Well it’s only November, we have all that winter to go through still, so having duds now isn’t a big deal.
    We’ll get there soon, just have to let mother nature do her thing.

  5. For me this isn’t a dud either way because “up to 1/2 inch on unpaved surfaces” from a snowlover’s point of view does not evoke great expectation and excitement.

    Back to the actual meteorology now, one final energy burst exiting the NJ coast this afternoon is now at Long Island and will have to hold together to get enough intensity over parts of eastern and southeastern MA in the next few hours, or you can kiss any snow chances goodbye rather quickly.

  6. Final burst of energy entering MA via RI, as evident by the enhancement on radar. This is it. Next 90 minutes in the Boston area if anything is going to happen.

  7. Harvey and Pete says best chance of any snow is Boston to SE MA around 6-7 pm…we will see. Todd is concerned about black ice tomorrow morning and winter moths.

    If we are entering a “transitional” phase the CPC isn’t buying it…much of the CONUS will have well above normal temps and Alaska well below for the rest of this month into early December. If you take this seriously, we should be having near record temps in the coming days, but I haven’t seen any local forecasts even with near normal temps after Monday of next week. I am still thinking mid-December when we begin the cold regime on a more permanent basis, however, I wouldn’t be totally surprised if it ends up delayed even further into the New Year 2012. Lately I have been having in mind a scenario of a snowy mid January-February-March as opposed to December-January…waaaaaay in the back of my mind.

    TK, I would like to nominate Joshua and David White to join us over here…I saw some good stuff from them over at WBZ blog today. 🙂

    Opinions always welcome. 🙂

    2. Hi Philip.

      I think towards the end of the month, it looks like the jet stream (at least according to the GFS) would shift very, very far north into northern Canada. This would trap cold air in far northern Canada and would allow some upper level lows to slowly move across the US. Anywhere south of that far, far displaced jet stream is going to be way above normal temps, except for the southern US, where clouds and precip would actually keep temps below normal. New Englands temps might be tempered some by being on the north side of these lows, potentially in the precip, clouds and damp onshore flow.

      1. Chilly night tonight. I got home about an hour ago from my procedure, long day as I had to be there at 9:30 this morning. I am happy to tell you no blockages were found, well just a tiny,tiny bit but nothing to be alarmed about. I am out of work for the next week with no pay. But things worked out great and thats all that matters. Thank you for all the kind thoughts.

        1. John – so glad to hear you are home and are ok! I was thinking of you today – again, happy you are ok. Just wish you got paid for the week – but what counts is that everything is ok.

          Haven’t seen any snow in Sudbury, unless it’s so light you can’t see the flakes. I am looking forward to seeing snowfall during the day!

          1. Thank’s rainshine, you are very kind. No snow here in Pembroke either just light drizzle. When my wife left the house around 4pm to come get me she said it was pouring.

          2. John,

            Glad to hear things went well ! Hope you are able to enjoy the week. You can stay up Monday night watching Pats – Chiefs and not have to worry about getting up early Tuesday.

        2. John I’ve been watching for your post and hoping that all would be well That is great news. I am sorry you are without pay but as rainshine said as difficult as that is the news is great. I am thankful that your news.

  8. Yes Tom that is one good thing I can watch the entire game. Not happy about being out next week, but I have no say on that. Glad today is over and the results could not have been better. My poor wife had a hard time with this as she had been crying on and off since friday. Thank’s again Tom. I am heading to bed as I am kind of beat. Good night.

  9. I notice that the Bruins won yet again tonight. It’s rather puzzling to me that in spite of a good winning streak (7?) they still hover around last place even though it is still very early into the season.

    I know very little about hockey other than the team that gets the most (goals) pucks into the opponent’s net wins…LOL. 🙂

    1. They have already vaulted a # of spots in the overall standings. They were dead last at one point during the slide. That’s all over. Watch the climb continue.

    2. Hi Philip- I think the bruins seem to be finding there A game right now. If they continue this, they will be in good shape.

  10. I always say when it comes to sports lets see where everyone is at the halfway point. Its appears the Bruins Stanley Cup hangover is done.
    To early for me to comment on the POTENTIAL storm system midweek next week.

  11. Well, good morning EURO…..Looks like that would be a pretty good storm just before Thanksgiving and would coincide with some high astronomical tides….As I recall, while the GFS was trying to figure the Oct. storm out days before the event, the EURO had shown it well in advance and was consistent with it. Happy Friday all !

  12. Also, on the EURO…I notice yet another deep, intense storm in the gulf of Alaska the middle of next week and ahead of it, a surge of mild air into the central US and into a good chunk of central Canada. I’d think whatever happens middle of next, there’s a good chance of a late Thanksgiving weekend moderation in temps.

  15. That would be quite the Nor’easter if the 00z EURO were to verify, it basically sits and spins for 3 days…
    Just need to keep a close eye on this, as we are still several days out.
    Go EURO!

  16. I am a little skeptical of the EURO bc its such a flip from its previous runs…. Let’s see if there is any consistency.

  19. OS it all depends on where the low goes, I agree if that EURO verifies that’s a lot of rain before any changeover occurs.

  20. HPC long term discussion….

    WED DAY 5 THE SRN PLAINS SFC LOW WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE NRN MID
    ATLC REGION AND OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WITH MODERATE RAINFALL
    FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. INLAND AND ESPECIALLY HIGHER
    ELEVATIONS OF PORTIONS OF NY/PA AND NEW ENG COULD SEE SOME
    ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

    1. hadi,

      Thank you. Note: On the BackSide

      Btw, Here is the 0Z Euro ensemble forecast for 144 hours:

      http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-ensmeantc2.cgi?time=2011111800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

      This system isn’t nearly as strong, that’s for sure.

      It is my understanding, and I hope Tk will correct me if I am wrong, that
      there are many ensemble members and for each member certain initialization
      parameters are changed slightly to see how it varies from the operational run.
      The more consistency shown across the ensemble members, the more confidence in the operational run. I guess the link I posted, was a composite
      of all ensemble members. Yes, I checked, it says ensemble MEAN.

  21. The 12z GFS and euro will be interesting, also the question of how much cold air will be available. In any case, it’s something to watch, which is always fun for a weather enthusiast.

      1. Depends on that wind direction and temps above us. Ocean temps still around 51 or 52 F. Sun angle now is like late January.

          1. Neither of those models are great, although the nogaps solution looked really nice, the Japanese model solution was a bit of an outlier.

  23. From the NWS:

    TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY…
    THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF A
    LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS CAN BE
    EXPECTED IN A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. HOWEVER…THERE APPEARS
    TO BE A DECENT SHOT FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION IN THIS
    TIME RANGE. THE OTHER THING WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR IS THERE
    APPEARS TO BE A DECENT SHOT OF CHILLY AIR IN ADVANCE OF THIS
    SYSTEM. IF THIS SYSTEM TRACKS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH…IT MAY END UP COLD
    ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER…SINCE WE ARE
    DEALING WITH A +NAO IF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES A BIT
    MORE IT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. FINALLY…A THIRD
    POSSIBILITY IS THAT THIS SYSTEM PASSES FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH WE
    END UP DRY. AS YOU CAN SEE…CERTAINLY SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO
    WATCH BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. AT THIS TIME…WILL
    MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

  24. Scott,

    My understanding was that the NOGAPS was not much of a model to be relied upon, but I did think that the Japanese model was held in higher regard. Perhaps I was mistaken.

    1. I’m not sure either on how accurate the Japanese model is, but being this far out, any solution should be taken with a grain of salt.
      If you could post the 12z run of the Japanese model when it comes out, so I can see if it stays consistent, would be good to see.

      1. Scott,

        Not sure when it becomes availabe, but if I have a moment later today, I’ll check and post if available.

        Enjoy!

      1. 12Z GFS 1000-500MB thickness at 126 hours:

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F18%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=126&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

        Maringal indeed, although 850MB temps are just under freezing. Still looking like a rain to snow on the backside
        event. So far at least. This is still 126 hours out, but the models
        have shown “some” consistency, so they are closing in on a solution.

  29. Now let’s see what the 12Z Euro has to say.
    We’ll me model gawking for the next 5 days! Lol.

    Seriously though, this would be for the day before Thanksgiving. Far better for it
    to be rain, than snow. With the 0Z Euro and the 12Z Gfs, sure looking like a
    moisture packed system, no matter what form it takes.

    Very worthy of watching for sure.

    1. And it “may” be just vigorous enough to do so, however, more so on the back end. I’m sure the models will do a better job defining temperature profiles as we get closer.

      The whole set up is somewhat similar to the pre-Halloween storm. Could get
      very interesting.

  31. I agree o.s.

    Thing is, back-end snows tend not to be so spectactular unless it’s one of those classic bomb comma-head storms which I don’t think this will be.

  32. According to Brett Anderson’s interpretation of the Euro, December through March will be just plain “seasonable” for us with “mild” conditions just to our south and even parts of the Midwest at times. Generally snowy & cold for much of central Canada.

    If this verifies, we are probably looking at near normal snowfall (40-44″) at most for Boston. With this current regime not going away anytime soon, this scenario looks quite possible for now…we will see. The “cold” regime’s arrival keeps getting delayed every day it seems. Even Henry Margusity has now backed off by another 2 weeks.

  33. We might be setting up for a winter with an occasional snow/ice storm with brief cold shots. Cold shots that keep getting punched away by a persistent SE ridge. I’m feeling good about my below average snow call for Boston.

  35. 12z GFS for sure is moisture loaded, would be a perfect track if it were late December. One thing we will have is a high to our north during this event, which will help bring down extra cold air. Also as I said earlier, if this storm were to occur durin the night, would make a difference.
    Let’s see what the 12 euro has to say in about 30 minutes.

    1. Yes and btw, the Japanese model is coming out now for 12Z. Up to 96 Hours
      at this point. Looking juicy and so far seems to be in line with GFS, but we’ll see.

  36. 12z EURO is nothing like the 00z run. Probably just some typical flip flopping that we get with most storms. There is zero agreement with this storm.

      1. I’m No met, but this all adds up to something with which the models are having a bit of a hard time. The fact that even one
        model has a bomb, indicates that atmospherically speaking things are in turmoil and something big “could” happen. Of course, if everything doesn’t come together exactly right, then
        we don’t get the bomb.

    1. Hadi,

      You are so correct.

      I’m still wagering that it is a mostly rain event, with the possibility of “some”
      snow on the backend. We’ll see. Plenty of time for a change.

  38. I would be shocked if this is an all snow event. I think this is going to be mostly rain possibly ending as snow and I would favor the higher elevations of SNE for that to happen.

    1. I wouldn’t be shocked, not around here anyway. However, like you, everything I have seen points to RAIN. We have a bunch more model
      runs to view to see how this pans out.

  40. +NAO = progressive system next week, mainly rain, if we get much at all. May see a drastic warm-up ahead of a cold front both this coming Sunday and the following Sunday. But not going that far out on the blog yet.

    Blog is updated!

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