Up & Down Temps, No Major Storms

72 Comments

3:34PM

Chilly air moved into the region Friday between departing low pressure to the north and high pressure to the southwest of New England. This high will settle south of New England and then off the Atlantic Coast this weekend with generally fair and milder to warmer weather. A cold front will cross the region Sunday night but is only expected to produce clouds without precipitation. A cool high pressure area builds in behind this front early next week. But the front will be lingering just to the south of New England and low pressure is expected to develop and travel along it, bringing unsettled weather for Wednesday, the big travel day before Thanksgiving. At the moment odds favor a weak to moderate and progressive system so it should not hang around. Odds also favor rain but temperatures may be borderline enough so that if we don’t have a wind off the water some areas could deal with a period of mix/snow. It’s far too early to be certain of any details, obviously. Fine-tuning to follow in the days ahead.  Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, should improve as the storm system moves away.

Tomorrow we’ll take a  peak into  Thanksgiving Weekend and Sunday we’ll venture a forecast out through the final days of November.

For now, the details for the Boston Area go this way…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low ranging from the middle 20s inland valleys to middle 30s Boston. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy early with an area of clouds moving across areas north of Boston, otherwise mostly sunny. High 51-56. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Low 41-46. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. High 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 45-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 49.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/mix. Low 32. High 44.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Clearing. Low 32. High 46.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. High 28. High 52.

72 thoughts on “Up & Down Temps, No Major Storms”

    1. No snow at least through mid-December most certainly…regime change may begin around December 19th. Just my personal thinking at this time. 🙂

    2. If we are basing this more on GFS data than a full suite of available info, we may end up surprised.

      Keep in mind we had a major mild pattern ongoing in October with nobody ever thinking we’d have a snow threat, then suddenly……..

      The weather is far too variable and Mother Nature far too fickle for us to get too confident. Even on my most confident feeling days I keep in the back of my mind that I could wake up tomorrow and look like the worst forecaster ever. 😉

  4. Thanks TK – I forgot to say I knew what transitional phase meant – I have no idea how or why but I loved your explanation and was quite pleased that I not only understood but had anticipated what you would say

    Of course the charts still look like Greek to me 🙂

  5. I have a non-weather question for those on the south shore. We are trying to figure out if there is a way for my sister-in-law to get from Logan to the commuter rail in scituate in January so she can visit us at Humarock when we are there. Is there a fairly straight forward way to do this or is it to convoluted? Thank you very much!

      1. Ahhh… thought so. Link had the general website.
        IF you simply plug in Logan Airport at Start
        and N. Scituate, MA at END, you will get a nice
        trip itinerary with time and cost and map all laid out.

        Hope this works for you.

    2. old colny will take her to the driftway in Scituate, this is the one she wants. She would just need to get a cab to where that train leaves from. Southstation, downtown or Jfk.

      1. called greenbush line. They do have that line right now shut down on weekends for rail work so make sure to look into that. I am looking into it for you. But like I said the greenbush line is the one she wants to driftway stop. For some reason if that does not work go for hanson commuter rail.

      1. Thank you also John. We’ve rented the house from Dec 31-jan 29. We will take some days and work others. The kids and grandkids will come and go. It’s not the house we rent in summer. It’s a bit smaller but cozier for winter and is on the ocean like the summer house but not on the river. That way we hope there will be no danger of the water coming up and we can stay through a storm

  6. Here is the 12Z DGEX, Which I believe is an extension of the NAM from 90 out
    to 192 Hours. So if we don’t think the NAM is good after 60 hours, then one might
    not like this. BUT it does show a different solution to the South of the others.

    Here is a 6 panel display. To see each hour, place the mouse over the hour depiction
    near the top. Closest pass to us is hour 138 and hour 144:

    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html#picture

  7. As I said earlier it at the moment and this could change does not look like a big deal in terms of snowfall. Euro has a low tracking north of NYC while GFS keeps the low over the water if I am looking at it correctly.

  8. Everyone…how about another contest? Try to guess what date the regime change to “cold” will take place.

    My guess: December 19 🙂

  10. As TK said, and I agree with him, the new regime will come in waves, we are currently in the first wave…
    Second wave should occur after thanksgiving, and the real flip should happen Dec. 5th

  12. Tom- where is the High school going if it goes through. what is your thought on a new school. I graduated from there class of 90.

  13. No way this storm anything but rain for 95% of us.
    I would say dec 9th is a pattern change. I think we will get a big time storm before Xmas.

  14. Good Morning everyone!!! What a great weekend on tap oh and that POTENTIAL storm on the busiest travel day of the year. Thinking a mostly rain event with the possiblity of a little snow in the higher elevations of SNE at the end of the event. To me if you combine what the EURO and operational GFS you have a storm system tracking over the NYC area or just to the south of there.

  15. The 00z EURO continues to show a slow mover, eventually stalling just to our east. The
    GFS is much warmer and faster. It’s still up in the air at this point.

  16. Scott I agree totally its up in the air at this point which makes forecasting interesting. Of course even if this is rain which I think at this point will be for the majority of this storm system that could cause travel issues on the busiest travel day of the year.

  18. Good Afternoon – these are the dates I have for the turn to winter – I copied the database for the snow totals so that’s why most names do not have a date beside them but I’ll fill in any that come along

    Philip 12/19
    JimmyJames 12/8
    Vicki 12/9
    Rainshine 12/11
    Tom
    Coastal
    John 12/10
    Old Salty
    Charlie
    Scott 12/5
    Merlin
    retrac
    Hadi 12/9
    Longshot
    Tjammer
    TK

  22. If I am reading that correctly that keeps the low over land which would translate to rain. Don’t like looking at a model projecting that being the snowlover I am.

  23. That EURO is definitely different than the GFS and other models…which then tanks the NAO at the end of the run. If the EURO continues to show this solution, then we may have to deal with a bit of snow, in return, thanksgiving travel would be a disaster.
    We are still several days out, so as I said earlier, anything could happen.
    My table of possibilities…
    Rain to snow: 30%
    All rain:45%
    Complete miss:25%

    1. Keeping my fingers crossed on that last scenario (miss)…I have some last minute errands I would like to do before Thursday. Most likely though I will have to spread them out between Monday-Tuesday. Wish I had the “extra” day though.

      1. For once I am hoping for all rain or nothing – too many people travel starting on Monday and I like for everyone to be safe and relaxed

  24. One thing with the snow I would favor the higher elevations of the interior for that switch at the moment. It is looking more and more that we are going to get something midweek.

  26. According to Brett Anderson’s late night blog, based on the Euro, the mild regime continues well into mid-December (the week before Christmas).

  27. Hey Philip… I just looked at that and hope that does not pan out. One thing is sure this regime change keeps getting pushed back.

  28. The above normal temperature looks to continue in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. In fact in the 6-10 day outlook most of the lower 48 with the exception of Florida looking at above normal temps.

    1. Alaska looks brutally cold for the forseeable future as well…wouldn’t want to be there right now brrrrrrr! 🙂

    1. Just read the NWS out of Maine and they said in the discussions models are trending toward to warmer solution. The ingredients to me are not there with this one for accumulating snow.

      1. With the exception of the EURO, which actually trended colder in it’s 12z run.
        Also, that’s an 18z run, and the NAM isn’t very good that far out. We’ll see…

          1. As well as the overall pattern, while the GFS has had frequent issues. Maybe this is the time for the GFS to bounce back?

  30. I forgot to mention that I did some raking today. I did the best I could with the gusty winds blowing leaves all over the place. With the leaf drop here in Boston almost but not totally complete, I will probably be raking for the rest of the month into maybe the first few days of December although the bulk is pretty much done now.

    Ideally I would like to see a snowstorm about 3-7 days before Christmas. 🙂

    1. good grief – is that blue over us snow? As you know I can’t read the charts but I can see the colors over our area???

  32. Our leaves are as raked as they will be. We do the fall cleanup and for the past few years have had a landscape company do spring. It’s the pleasure of getting close to retirement age and not worrying so much about doing as enjoying 🙂

    We also put up the start of the outside Christmas lights. Our son in law got the house outlined except we ran out for the last little bit of gutter. We also did the bushes. The rest will be completed tomorrow but won’t go on until next weekend. Might as well take advantage of the weather. I remember many years that my fingers were about to crack from the cold 🙂

    And I saw Christmas trees being unloaded this morning and did what I do not typically do and started listening to Christmas songs in the car 🙂 I think I really got into the spirit with our Christmas discussion here the other day!!!!

    1. My leaves are 90% done. A quick round tomorrow with the mower and things should be set except possibly a little touch up for next Saturday. A little late this year due to many reasons but should be laying cords next Saturday, lights hopefully by Sunday. Inside decorations done from Nov 25-30 (yes it takes that long, big house). Everything on for December 1!

      1. Haha. Takes me that long for inside too. I tried a new technique when impute decorations for inside away last year. I did it by room so I can put away regular room decorations in same container and hopefully not be looking for them all year. I have two dept 56 villages and the dickens village will go up tomorrow. My problem is that normally leave everything up until little Christmas and this year we leave to go away Dec 29.

  34. Scientifically speaking, I should not even try to guess when a semi-permanent new pattern will be established, but for the fun of it on the blog, I will guess based on current trends:

    December 23.

    Oh yes and the blog has been updated!

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