Sunday October 25 2020 Forecast (7:19AM)

29 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 25-29)

Discussion…

A reminder: We’re still dealing with guidance that struggles more than would be typical due to deficient data for initialization, and it shows daily. Just yesterday we went from one GFS run showing measurable snow early October 31 in a good portion of southern New England to the next run showing dry/cold weather for the exact same time. It can be a challenge to try to figure out where the model mess-ups are and what they should really be forecasting – a daily struggle, fun at times, frustrating at others. A few adjustments have been made to this forecast but nothing too drastic. As expected, our mild air mass that started the weekend has been replaced by a much cooler one as the air is coming out of eastern Canada via the Maritime Provinces. It’s dry air though, and today will be a chilly late October day, although you will notice the presence of high & mid level cloudiness streaming in from the southwest which will dim and even blot out the sun at times. This is high level moisture in advance of an approaching warm front which, as it approaches the region later tonight and Monday, will cause the clouds to lower and thicken. Such fronts are often known for producing decent overrunning rain, but it appears this one will fail to do that, producing only spotty lighter rainfall at times during Monday. Tuesday, we’ll have a cold front slowly pushing through the region, but the closer we get to this, the more it looks like the front will be starved for moisture, and clouds will be dominant with only limited rain shower activity. High pressure should poke its way into the area for fair weather Wednesday, but the front that goes through on Tuesday will not be far away, and another wave of low pressure is expected to form on the front and may bring another chance of wet weather by Thursday. But there’s plenty of time for this system to fail to materialize as the models currently show. 😉

Details…

TODAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 50-57. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Overcast. Periods of light rain and drizzle probable. Highs 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers during the morning. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 30- NOVEMBER 3)

Model performance renders them basically useless from here onward. Educated guess forecast is that we remain unsettled for a portion of October 30 as the low pressure passes south of the region, but as cold air is moving into the region it will be a race between it and the drier air to see if any of that rain can end as a mix or some snow briefly before we clear out later October 30. Halloween October 31 looks dry and cold. There’s some uncertainty but a disturbance may come by sometime November 1 or 2 with a few rain/snow showers before a reinforcing shot of cold/dry air arrives. Still have to work out the details on that part of the forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

This period still looks mainly dry with polar jet stream domination. As high pressure sinks to the south of the region we should see a warm-up initially before a cold front brings a new batch of cold air from Canada eventually. Again, timing such details will be impossible this far out, so just that general idea for now.

29 thoughts on “Sunday October 25 2020 Forecast (7:19AM)”

  1. Thanks TK!

    I’m surprised that you didn’t mention new hurricane Zeta which is forecast to arrive here on Thursday bringing us good beneficial rains, hopefully.

    1. We will not be experiencing a hurricane on Thursday, sorry. 🙂 Some remnant moisture from what used to be a hurricane may be involved in that system that I have in the forecast for Thursday. But that system is mainly going to be born of energy from the west, and most of that tropical moisture will probably end up passing significantly south of southern New England anyway.

      1. Of course, the remnant moisture was what I should have said. Not my intention that a full fledged hurricane was coming directly at us.

        This morning, the Ch. 5 Met did have the moisture right over SNE with a good deal of rain though. I’ll certainly trust your judgement then that most will stay south TK. Oh well. 🙂

          1. I didn’t see the weathercast you are referring to, but they were probably just showing a model-generated map. While that is certainly a possible outcome, I’d lean away from it. We could use the rain, so I’m hoping I’m not right in thinking it may largely miss, or under-produce.

        2. I know. I just like to have fun with you. 🙂 I knew you didn’t mean we were gonna get hammer-slammered by a ‘cane. 🙂

  3. Hello,

    I hope no one minds that I share this music video

    Own This Town – Joey McIntyre (Official Music Video)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3AsPodkylqU&list=RD3AsPodkylqU&start_radio=1

    This is brand new and it is entirely shot in Boston and mostly
    in JP. Joey McIntyre grew up a couple of streets over from my house and our children went to school with him and at times played with him in the neighborhood. My wife used to babysit for his family (before Joey was born). Some of the shots in
    this video are literally down the street from me.

    And not for nothing, this is not a bad tune at all.

    I can remember seeing Joey as a 12 year old singing on the
    stage at St. Mary’s School in Brookline Where our children
    attended with him.

  4. And one more non-weather related post.

    If anyone out there is a Chess fan or even have ever played the game, there is a Netflix 7 episode series entitled:

    The Queen’s Gambit

    I haven’t played chess in a long long time and when I did, I wasn’t very good. The players depicted in this series are
    phenomenal! Here is a trailer:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDrieqwSdgI

    It is a must see that is extremely well done and superbly acted, most especially by Anya Taylor-Joy who plays the lead role.
    She can also be seen in the 2020 film Emma.
    It was riveting and I couldn’t stay away, watching all 7 episodes in a day and 1/2.

    2. Not my thing, but I know a couple folks that may be interested. I’ll see if they know about this.

    1. I’m a big fan of the photos you’ve shared that he’s taken. Last evening’s sky was spectacular, briefly, but in limited places. A scene like this was seen where the sun could sneak under the low-mid level cloud deck. In some places, as noted above by Jean, there was a spectacular rainbow due to the light showers that formed. I got a so-so view of sunset from my location, but it was decent and I was pleased with it. Only snagged 1 or 2 photos from where I was and haven’t even looked at them yet. I am literally 2 weeks behind in photos right now. I took over 240 photos last Sunday alone. 😉

  6. I think Zeta may end up a tad faster than current NHC track, and also further east (or toward the right edge of “the cone”. Louisiana would be missed if my thoughts on this turn out to be correct.

    2. I wouldn’t get too excited, especially with the fact that will be a shorter duration lighter event and the ground is very warm.

  8. I totally and completely got blasted out of the water on the sky condition today. Day one forecast… This happens to me about once every season. HAHAHA!

  9. Patriots offense is horrendous. They need to sign a TE and or reciever if they want to be at all competitive. Newton needs to be able to throw without throwing an darn intercpetion. 5 interceptions. 2 passing touchdowns this season. I rather Jimmy G.

    1. Defense is horrendous as well. No way they win anymore games the rest of this season. They won’t beat the Jets either. It is very clear now that Cam Newton is NOT the answer.

      2-14

      1. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

        I’d love to make a bet with you on that. They’ll win again this season.

      2. Buffalo Bills 5-2
        Schedual
        Patriots, Seahawks, Cardinals Chargers, 49ers, Steelers, Broncos, Patriots, Dolphins.

        Patriots 2-4
        schedule: Bills, Jets, Ravens, Texans, Cardinals, chargers, rams, dolphins, Bills, Jets.
        I still see a way for the patriots to take the division based both teams schedual but next weeks game is very important as in we need to have Newton in the first half show us he can play but if he puts us to much into a whole to have Stid prepped for the game to take over. with that said the weapons available are not helping at all. With that said Stid has shown me that he rather throw the ball than run it but is willing to run when its needed. He also would likely play with Jules playing style better which will get him back to his usual self we all know and love. In my opionion the Newton experiement has mainly been a failure espeically is they can not turn things around. Of course if they can beat the Bills next week that would be huge.

      1. Just another stat, really. There are many. 🙂

        But it is interesting to note how many of the multitude of storms we had were not that strong. Every season has its own personality.

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