Order Out Of Chaos

5:50PM Saturday (original) / 7:32AM Sunday (edit)

The weather pattern is about to throw itself into chaos according to most reliable information. What we will see out of this for now is not a great deal of change from the type of weather we’ve been having. Frequent precipitation events, mild temperatures overall, and brief shots of cold weather, with snow threats only taking place when these cold shots and precipitation events collide (and that is not often). This situation (chaotic transitional pattern) will be in place for the foreseeable future.

The summary of events upcoming has not really changed much, and looking from now into Thanksgiving Weekend, I see these primary weather makers:

Sunday: High pressure offshore, gusty breeze from the southwest but very mild during the day, and a cold front coming through at night with little fanfare other than a gusty, shifting breeze and lots of clouds.

Monday: High pressure builds north of the region as the front hangs up to the south, meaning cooler temperatures and filtered to limited sun.

Tuesday: High pressure holds to the north, front slides northward, ripple of low pressure moving along it, south of the area, means less sun and a slight threat of rain.

Wednesday: A more organized low pressure area moves northeastward across southern New England with a period of rain during the day, and a few rain/snow showers at night.

Thursday: Thanksgiving Day will show improvement as low pressure moves away to the east northeast and high pressure builds toward the region from the west, but expect wind and chilly air, along with clouds to start, then increasing sun.

Friday: High pressure builds in – a bright day, cold start, milder finish.

Saturday: High pressure in control – fantastic late November day, dry and mild.

Forecast details for the Boston Area…

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 35-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. High 45-50. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light rain. Low 35. High 47.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain morning. Rain/snow showers night. Low 35. High 44.

THURSDAY: Clearing. Low 34. High 44.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 31. High 51.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 56.

57 replies on “Order Out Of Chaos”

  1. hello all. Out camping. Last night was cold, tonight seems milder. We do have a heater. Someday will camp in snow.:)

    1. Tom my son was here last night for a visit and reminded his sister who complained about the cold that it was colder when he was camping on Washington weeks ago. I’m impressed by you both. Have you been camping with your kids since they were quite young?

      1. Hi Vicki.
        My wife has been camping her whole life, introduced it to me and I love it. Kids do too, thankfully…..Thanks John for the update, will let my wife know…..Very mild overnight with rainshower, nice sunrise starting.

    2. Tom the vote was in favor of building the new school. Just thought I would pass this on if you did not here. Where is it going. It passed easily.

    1. Just watching the atmosphere and all, the true switch may not happen until after mid December. We’ll continue to have previews though. Remember, even in this mild regime we’ve had bouts of cold and of course the early snow (don’t think anyone will forget that any time soon).

        1. I’ve been “lucky” enough (lucky from a weather nut’s perspective) to have seen 2 October snowstorms of that magnitude. The tree damage around here was worse in the 1979 storm (in my area).

          1. The winters waited until 1992 to get bad when my oldest got her first horse and we had to go to hopkinton every day to muck stalls 1992/93 and 1993/94 I seem to remember being snowy. They are great memories though!

          2. 92-93, 93-94, 95-96, 96-97, etc. The 90s were the snowiest decade, followed by the 1st 10 years of the 2000s.

  2. Thank you TK. My real feeling is you and old salty will be closest to switch but with Dec 9 being my anniversary I had to go with that.

  3. Bruins win streak now at 8…wow! This team was all “fat & happy” to start the season, but “someone” or “something” has turned them around…in a good way. 🙂

  4. 00z NAM is warm and rainy, although I can’t tell if it wants to develop a secondary low, as the primary low is being strung out. Not sure if the two relate. I think the EURO was suggesting the development of a secondary low.
    00z GFS will be out in about an hour, wonder what that will have to say.

  5. According to Barry’s evening blog, a chilly rain is now likely for Thanksgiving Day but yet another warm weekend to follow.

  6. Back indoors. 🙂 66F currently at Logan and some more warmth relative to normal next weekend. Logan, as of yesterday, is 4.2F above normal for the month. I wonder if it has a chance at finishing 5F or more above normal for November…..

    1. Evidently, last November (2010) had 4 days of highs 60F or more at Logan. This November, today will already represent the 9th day of 60F or more for high temps or 45% of the month. Last November, Logan’s temp averaged 0.1F below normal.

        1. Will do Vicki. And, as TK has pointed out, within warm patterns, there can be a cold stretch with storminess.

      1. We got more outside lights done today. As I said we won’t light them but it’s great to have the majority of it done in the warmth.

  7. I don’t think its going to be this week since that Wednesday storm looks mostly rain maybe some wet snow at the tail end for higher elevations of SNE but the bottom line this look to be mostly a rainorma on the busiest travel day of the year.

  8. CH7 weather blog also made mention to warm days coming to an end. Tk thoughts on what these mets may be seeing. Also if anybody can look ahead to 12/4 on if there is a chance of snow. I am the town santa and can’t have snow. If it snows I will need to work.

    1. Santa? Not wanting snow?? Something’s wrong there. 😉

      Seriously though, they are just looking at the GFS which has had several runs flooding much of the USA with polar, not arctic, air late in the period.

    2. Hi John,

      I was kind of surprised to read that similar mention in both of their blogs. I dont doubt that the long range models are showing a pattern change to colder. I just dont know if I trust the long range models. This mild pattern has been going for a while that I dont think it will break down that easily……..For December 4th, I wouldnt have the confidence to venture a guess yet.

        1. I’ll find out and let you know. I assume in the complex where the current high school and middle school are now.

          1. Yes I was thinking that but not sure how it would fit. I was following the story for two reasons. One as you know I grew up there. And two I bet Pembroke was watching to see how all this went down. I am thinking you must have been torn with this. As a teacher it would be nice for a new school, as a tax payer tough call.

          2. John, kind of yes. I am glad the final vote wasnt within one or two votes either way and I am glad we were on the road for the weekend.

    3. John I am smiling from ear to ear. I haqve never met you but know you are a perfect town Santa. My brother who sadly passed away 16 years ago was the town Santa for Franklin so you also gave me some nice memories

      1. Thank you Vicki. I am sorry about your brother. And we will meet some day. This is my second year doing it. They bring me in on the ladder fire truck. It is called the Pembroke tree lighting. My wife helps with the planning of this event. Each year the goal is to make it bigger than the year before. I bought my own suit this year as they asked me to take it over. Last year my wife and son were on the truck with me as elves, yes all dressed up. I make the paper and if there was some way, it would be cool if we could get it on here, I don’t know if that could be done. We do not use facebook as I don’t trust it.

        1. My brother came in on a firetuck too. John what a gift you are giving to your community but also to your kids.

          1. I lost my oldest brother 14 years ago in March 1997. Today would have been his birthday. Miss him every day but many great memories! And it’s my half birthday. 😉

      2. TK. I am so very sorry. I think of my brother every day and know you do as well. I have stories that make me know he thinks of me too and especially of his children. Seems the more we get to know each other here, the more we find in common

    1. From The NWS:

      20/00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL A BIT
      CONCERNED THEIR TRACKS MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH A BLOCKING
      SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
      THROUGH THE MARITIMES. 20/00Z GEFS MEAN SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE MORE
      CORRECT WITH ITS LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. EVEN IF
      THIS TRACK WERE TO VERIFY…STILL THINKING IT WILL BE TOO WARM FOR
      WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MOST OF ANY SNOW
      CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT.

  9. I have been of that thinking since yesterday that if there was going to be any snow this storm system it would be the elevated areas of SNE.

  10. Today’s CPC continues to show the same old, same old pattern through the first week of December (yawn). My bet is at least the first two weeks of December remain well above normal.

  11. TK- So sorry to hear that. So you were twins? It does not matter how much time passes, a loss like that is tough to take. I am sure your brother is looking down on you and happy with the life you lead. Its funny. Vicki has said she has never met me but feels as if she knows me. I hope that came out right. The point that I am getting to is most everyone here has not met, but its funny in the sense that we almost feel like we know each other and have been friends for years. There have been some personal things posted here lately. Like death and tests that people have had to go through. And the support and heartfelt reactions that people post here is just beyond words. This is something Tk that you created. And like I said your brother is looking down on you and is just so happy. Happy birthday to your brother Tk. And I guess happy half birthday to you.

    1. Thanks John!

      You share the name of my oldest brother. We were 13 years apart in age, but we may as well have been twins for the love of music we shared. There are 3 other brothers I have as well, all older than I am. I’m the baby. 😉

    2. John I didn’t read your comment until after I posted to TK above. What you have said is very true. I’ve always believed things happen for a reason and to me the opportunity to be part of this blog is no different.

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