Friday October 30 2020 Forecast (7:40AM)

149 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

Discussion…

About 10 days ago I told a coworker many of us would see our first snowflakes before October was over. Well, many of you will indeed see that today. But this is not going to be a big snowstorm either. No repeat of 2011. And let’s get our priorities straight. People “freak out” (don’t know why) over relatively minor events these days, but for most of you, snow is not going to be the problem today. The greater danger comes tonight when temperatures fall into the 20s before the ground has a chance to dry off, even though the snow (and rain to the southeast) will have ended hours before. This is a recipe for black ice, and it would have been an issue even with out the snow. So don’t blame the snow for the ice that forms tonight. It’s time we got back to thinking about weather in a more practical sense. Getting lost in the drama of “flakes falling from the sky” prevents a lot of useful information from actually being heard. So be careful tonight if you go out. If you read this, and still do the icy slip n’ slide, don’t say you were not warned. So onto the rest of the weather. We have our little winter preview event as cold air meets departing low pressure today, then that cold air and black ice tonight. Thankfully as high pressure settles over the region on Saturday, despite a very cold start, the dry will “warm” back to the 40s with very dry air which will allow those icy patches to disappear. Saturday evening, for any outdoor Halloween activities, expect a sky that shows some high clouds arriving just in time to accent the rising full moon, the second one this month, the “blue moon” (not actually blue), or the Hunter’s moon. During the late night, expect more clouds and a temperature that may rise slightly as the wind begins to blow from the south. A warm front passes the region early Sunday and a cold front then approaches late in the day, but doesn’t pass through until Sunday night with its rain showers. Also, don’t forget that this is also the weekend we switch from Daylight Savings Time back to Standard Time as the clocks go back 1 hour at 2 a.m. Sunday. I’ve noticed a lot of folks lately having gotten into the habit of calling “Standard Time” by the name “Daylight Savings Time”. No. That’s what we are coming off of, and going BACK to Standard Time. Spread the word. Let’s call things what they are. And speaking of getting back to things, back to the weather I go, and back to the cold air we go on Monday and Tuesday with a nice delivery from the arctic via Canada. A few snow showers may accompany the incoming cold on Monday, but nothing series in the snow department. Tuesday, Election Day, looks dry, but there may be some areas that never get out of the 30s – so between today and that day, we’re going to see a couple of mighty chilly days for this time of year…

Details…

TODAY: Overcast. Snow or rain changing to snow, accumulating 1/2 to 2 inches, especially on grassy/leafy surfaces and other typically cold surfaces., while the South Coast / Cape Cod are mainly rain with a few flakes mixing in. Breaking clouds this afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NE shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 21-28 except around 30 urban centers. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 31-38 evening then a slow temperature rise overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH early, becoming S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, especially in the afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers during the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Slight risk of a rain or snow shower. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening with a passing snow shower possible. Mostly clear overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind chill below 20 at times. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

Dry weather dominates with a warm-up November 4-6, then cooling down again later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

Dry, chilly start then warming up again November 9-10. Strong cold front may bring rain showers and then another shot of cold by November 11. Watch for a wave of low pressure with possible unsettled weather late in the period.

149 thoughts on “Friday October 30 2020 Forecast (7:40AM)”

  2. Good morning. and Thank You TK.

    It is so cool seeing snow falling from the sky in October. Awesome!

    It has been snowing here in JP for more than an hour. Intensity really picking up now.

    Love it!!

  3. Thanks TK.

    Moderate snow and 31 here in Coventry CT. About a half inch accumulation so far. Deck and grass are covered, roads still just wet. Very blustery too…feels like January out there!

    In the rain gauge, 1.96” since Wednesday and 5.12” on the month

  6. Thanks TK !

    Enjoy the snow, Logan down to 33F ! and I saw Portland ME with a dp of 20F, so as long as the dry air doesn’t evaporate too much precip, it’s there to lower temps via wet bulb more than expected. I think this may overperform expectations in lower elevations just away from the coast.

  8. TK thank you. Kind of an indoor day, but I will somehow manage to walk the shore. Snow is coating the grass and roof tops a little but not so much on the pavement. Many would describe this as YUCK, but I kind of like it. My mums also seem to like it.

      1. There was a car-truck accident scene on my way into work this morning, and that was well before the changeover.

  10. Albany, NY down to 29F and 8am Obs show sub freezing dewpoints affecting to Boston.

    If a heavier snow band materializes in the next few hours, it’s going to be quite productive in terms of accumulation.

    Impressive cold airmass.

  11. Moderate snow here, almost borderline heavy.
    It looks like the dead of Winter out there, except for Wet
    pavements and Leaves on the trees.

    33 here, dp 31

    Impressive.

    I can even sport a few places where a little slush is building on the sidewalks. Just a little, but it is there.

  13. Good morning!
    Thanks, TK…

    Went from 40 to 34 in the last 90 minutes with a nice, little snowfall right now!

  16. My wife and I married on the date of a blue moon, so they are extra special to us. And I love the confusion between the two definitions of blue moon.

    https://www.space.com/15455-blue-moon.html

    https://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/when-is-the-next-blue-moon

    This is a great quote in the first article:
    As Texas astronomer Donald W. Olson wrote in a 2006 column for Sky & Telescope magazine, “With two decades of popular usage behind it, the second-full-moon-in-a-month (mis)interpretation is like a genie that can’t be forced back into its bottle. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing.”

  17. Ridiculous question: Will the snow melt from grassy surfaces from day end? Though not much sun will be present, I’m wondering if sun angle will cause snow melt. I promised to build something for my son on the lawn by the time he gets home early this evening. Temps are supposed to fall into the 20s so I assume snow remains “grounded “ until tomorrow afternoon.

    1. Sun angle today is equivalent to the sun angle in mid February. Should definitely last in shaded areas at least

    2. Most will and what doesn’t will disappear with a combination of sublimation overnight and melting and evaporation tomorrow.

      1. Thank you Mark and TK. I don’t have any shade in the back yard so hopefully most melts by days end. When does accumulating snow and last flake send for the 95 belt?

  18. Wind blown moderate snow continues here. It looks and feels like mid January! Just measured an inch here in Coventry and the driveway and roads are now snow and slush covered. I am about to drive into the office so we will see what it’s like there in the lowlands…

  19. Logan below freezing at 31F. Temps running about 5F colder than projected, at least compared to what I saw on futurecasts last night.

    Don’t be surprised to see some wind blown snow from roofs.

  20. Absolutely beautiful out and it’s moderate for sure. Snow accumulating even on the roads here in my neck of the woods.

  22. TK – Could Logan set a record for October snow? I believe this system is definitely overachieving.

    1.0” = 10/2011

    1. It is overachieving because the airmass is colder than projected, creating a less wet snow and allowing it to stick as if it were the middle of winter.

  25. Just went out to take a few measurements in Andover. Best one was a flat plywood board I have on my firepit, just about 2 1/2 inches… Good moderate snow still coming down.

  26. That’s why I generalized my accumulation forecast on today’s update. Colder / drier further east.

  27. We’re hanging in at 32 here in JP.
    Good moderate snow falling. Everything is covered. Probaly have a good inch inch and 1/2 on the ground here, perhaps more. Hard to tell as the grass is fairly high making it look like more.

    Roads ARE covered.

  28. It’s been ripping snow here in Manchester CT that past hour. Nearing the back edge of the heavier band. Over an inch on the ground now here as well as we are up over 2″ at home. Roads were not good on the way in – primary and secondary roads snow and slush covered, even some slushiness forming on the interstate.

    1. I would say easily over 2 inches looking at the cars. Still coming down at a good clip. Everything is covered.

    1. Good thing we find that measurable snow in Oct is not the kiss of death for winter 50% of the time. 😉

  31. Brief NWS update and it Address’s Tom’s issue as a coastal front

    .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
    945am update…

    Rain/snow line has gradually pushed further south and east as
    colder air has come in. A good proxy for the change over is the
    925mb temperature of -2 to -2.5C. Looks like the models were all
    a bit too slow with bringing in the colder air, as the
    changeover – especially across eastern/southeast MA – has
    occurred a little quicker than forecast. Made some adjustments
    to the temperatures and change to snow as a result. Backedge of
    the snow stretches from around Orange MA into NW CT, and is
    making steady progress east. We do have a low level coastal
    front that has developed from about Marshfield MA southeastward
    to around New Bedford with more northerly component to the winds
    west of this front and surface temperatures 30-33F west and
    37-40F east of the front. Radar also showing a bit of
    enhancement in the returns as well. Given the air temperatures
    where it`s snowing hovering around freezing, and road
    temperatures also in that range, think just some wet slush at
    most. But as the snow ends, temperatures will rise a few degrees
    later this afternoon, so no linger impacts on roads are
    expected. Winds still breezy across the Cape and the immediate
    coast of the south shore, but not expecting them to get any
    stronger. Will likely take down the Wind Advisory a little
    early. Will monitor the winter weather advisory status as well.

  32. I have a feeling that I may have to shovel when I get home from work so my sidewalk doesn’t freeze up. I don’t recall having to shovel back in 2011 even though I did receive a full inch. IIRC it melted fairly quickly.

    This may very well be the earliest I ever had to shovel. I haven’t even raked yet.

  33. Once BDL reports amount of snow that has fallen it will be only the sixth time in October with measurable snowfall where records are kept for inland CT. The last was 2016 and the winter of 2016-2017 had above normal snowfall which is still the only winter to have October snow and above normal snowfall for the winter. I am rooting this will be number two. This is nothing compared to 2011 when digging out from a foot of heavy wet snow.

  37. It is nice to read comments from our winter bloggers. I hope all is well with you and I look forward blogging with you in the coming months.

  38. Do we have an exit time . I really hope we do not need to stay after 3:30 as I’ve been here since 4am .

    1. Looking at the latest HRRR, it says for Boston around
      4 or 5 PM. We still have a little ways to go.

      John, It looks like about 3 inches at my house. How does it look
      at the hospital campus?

      2. Maybe 2 old salty . There concerned with the temperature tonight so I’m here till tomorrow sometime salting .

  40. 4.5″ of snow back at the house in Coventry an still coming down!!

    Here in Manchester, about 2″. We had a brief lull in the snow and now it is snowing hard again. Back edge of this has really filled in!

  42. Just spent the last hour wandering through our various grades having recess. Nothing brings more joy to children, even in a pandemic, than the first snowfall (even though most were underprepared and are now soaking wet). Plus–their masks don’t look so out-of-place on a snowy day.

  43. Thank you, TK!

    One word: Wow!

    In all my 55 years I have never seen daytime accumulating snow in October. I’ve also never seen such small flakes in October. And, I’ve never seen daytime shoveling in October.

    Let’s hope this winter isn’t like 2011-2012, when, after a late October surprise we got an extraordinarily mild winter.

    Looking ahead to early next week, I wouldn’t be surprised if some records fell on Election Day and night – and I don’t mean political records! – with another anomalous cold air mass on the way.

    1. Yes, indeed, Mark. Thanks for sharing.

      Consider what a storm that produces daytime accumulating snow must overcome in a coastal urban area in late October: 1. Still relatively mild ocean water; 2. Surfaces that haven’t been below freezing (well, not even close to freezing) since March.

      I live across the river from Cambridge. I measured 2.2 inches earlier this morning. It may be 3 inches now.

  46. If I looked at that picture and had to guess where it was taken with snow in October I would have guessed a higher elevation spot.

  47. For some reason, imgur and twitter images are not working on my mobile device. Are they “out of service” or something??

    1. Yep, agree. If this were April I’d say yes, but definitely not with an equivalent mid Feb sun angle and very cold air mass moving in.

  53. Ripping snow again here….this should be the last gasp. Probably wont get to 5″ back home but it will be close.

    This is no 2011, but another historic October snowstorm we are in the midst of here. This is likely to end up the second largest October snow event at BDL since records were kept.

    1. Formany towns in Eastern MA and SE MA, this has actually surpassed the totals they received in the 2011 storm.

  55. Power outages starting to creep up. Eversource reporting 1800 out in CT and about 1000 out in Eastern MA so far…

  56. Thankfully this will be winding down in the next couple hours otherwise those power outages numbers would be going up big time.

  57. About 4” here in Sturbridge and still snowing at a good clip. Back end quickly approaching so I think this is about what we end up with. Not too bad for pre Halloween snow, I’ll take it.

  62. Snow plow guy coming to our condo complex after 3 pm. We’re up on a hill and the driveway slopes down the hill. We’re concerned about the freezing.

  63. Today’s sun angle is equivalent to Feb 10th per the declination angle data in the Farmers Almanac.

    Region may have seen more snow in past October systems, but to me, today is the most impressive.

    That Logan has been sub 32 since early morning really is crazy.

    We just flipped to snow here in eastern Marshfield.

  64. And the radar is showing one final consolidating burst here that may be good for another 1-2 inches in areas it hits.

  66. BREAKING WEATHER NEWS
    From Eric Fisher
    Boston coming in with a report of 3.1″…handily the biggest October snow on record there

    1. Nope. It was just another example of very poor guidance even one day in advance. The weather is almost unforecastable right now, save for pre-model methods. Time to go old school!

  69. Eric Fisher just tweeted out no onshore wind with this one for the coast as to why there seeing these snow totals.

  71. From NWS Boston
    ! Our climate site in #Boston is now up to 3.5 inches of #snow so far, easily surpassing the previous daily record (0.6″) and monthly record (1.1″). #MAwx

  75. Holy Crap Batman. I was just our shoveling. Yes I had to shovel the walk and driveway!! Then I measured 4.75 inches!!!
    it was a solid measurement and was not from sticking above the grass. WOW!

    1. NOPE!

      Shoveled in 2011 when we got 2 inches here and shoved while in Jr high or high school when we had about 4 inches in Millis late in
      October (Do not remember the exact year or day).

  78. Second biggest October snowfall on record with 1.8 inches of snow at BDL. Counting today there has been measurable snowfall 3 times in the past 9 years with of course the 12.3 inches of snow in 2011 being the biggest October snowfall on record.

  79. The storm that just keeps on giving! I see the back end near Springfield on radar but I swear that’s 45-60 minutes away.

  80. 5.6″ in Coventry CT!!

    Major sagging occurring with the tree branches. Still at work but will send pictures later.

  83. This is great though.

    Today´s cold snow right to the ocean should do it for snow until early March, at which point, it will then snow and be miserably icy chilly right through mid May.

    Some toasty 850 mb temps starting Thursday, Perhaps interrupted a bit at low levels by a southeast Canada high.

  84. Having my head handed to me by mother nature 4 times in about one week’s time could be frustrating, but I’m too enamoured with the October snowstorm to be upset about it.

    I am a little bit disappointed in all the trash talking of mets I’ve seen on Facebook today. Sure folks, come do the job, and do it better. You’ll fail more miserably than you can even imagine. 😉 That’s all I have to say to them, and maybe a little gesture to go along with it. Sorry, not sorry. MY OPINION. MY WORDS. Thanks very much!

    So, when you miss the snow and get at least double what was expected, you shovel your driveway then go on a photo shoot (my new passion, very quickly catching up to and probably soon passing my passion for weather). I’m excited about that!

    1. Today wasn´t something mets could anticipate.

      The models simply didn´t anticipate how cold the airmass would be. That translated to more snow. A few degrees.

      The basics of the forecast were perfect. A second followup system to the rains from Zeta yesterday and colder air filtering in. The forecast was accurate.

      Its just that, as you have said many times TK, a degree or a few degrees can increase a snowfall significantly. But, the structure of the forecast itself was still quite good.

      1. It really was. We’re only talking a few degrees and maybe a tenth or two melted. That made all the difference. Statistically it’s not a bad forecast. Impact-wise, it looks a lot worse. 😛

        However I am proud of having identified the pattern that can produce snow before October was over about 10 days ago. Somewhere on the blog I commented that. I wish I could find which day I said it. 😛

        1. Weather forecasting is NOT done under experimental conditions. And, unlike economists, you can’t make liberal use of the “ceteris paribus” clause (other things equal).

          So, in meteorology you’re left with plenty of surprises throughout the year. Models are simulations of reality after all. And interpreting models and historical data is invariably an imperfect business.

          TK, you do a fantastic job.

    1. Side streets in Back Bay as well. Beacon Street got salted. Sidewalks are being treated, too, which is a good thing given the hard freeze tonight.

      I remember all of us saying last March, after a bit of snow fell to close out the measly winter of 2019-2020, “well, we’ll have to wait until November until our next snow chance.” Will have to amend that to “October” moving forward.

  86. Sorry TK for jinxing you the other day 🙂

    Mark
    October 28, 2020 at 4:26 PM
    Not that I wish failure upon anyone but…..
    Let’s keep this anomalous streak going and all wake up to 6″ of snow Friday AM!

    Reply
    Woods Hill Weather
    October 28, 2020 at 4:49 PM
    Haha! That will be one forecast that won’t fail that badly.

    1. BTW, I hope you know I am just poking some fun at you here. There wasn’t one forecast (or model) I saw that predicated this outcome. I echo Tom and Joshua’s sentiments above!

  88. I’m as surprised as everyone else this evening. Was busy at work most of the day but was watching it all unfold. The snowfall rates were the big surprise to me. It makes sense that the temperatures were colder given the rates were higher, but it’s the rates that were a surprise. Sun angle is no factor this time of year, and warm ground is very easy to overcome *if* both the rates and the air temperatures are sufficient. I sort of sensed the direction things were trending looking at the radar around 7-8AM this morning…

  90. I am here to take the beating. 3 days ago, I listed all the reasons why this event would not verify with the more aggressive prognostications. Well it did and then some. I failed. Relatively little impact, but still it is a forecast bust that is for sure embarrassing and humbling.

    You know how I always laugh at how the snow lover or the NWS Spotter who always somehow has the highest snow total? Well my forecast verified just right in my backyard! See the link.

    https://imgur.com/a/RgeNsoR

  91. Shoveling is done!
    Just got finished with a really nice photo shoot for the limited time that I had. I am in my glory at the moment between that and the pictures I still haven’t finished going through.

  92. 3.8″ here.
    The all-time October record in Taunton is 3.0″ (at the water works) on October 10, 1979.

  93. Just read a tweet from Eric Fisher saying 4.3 inches of snow fell for Boston today. This blew away the previous record of 1.1 inches for biggest snowfall for the month of October.

  94. Speaking of records for snowfall in boston – I was reading a newspaper from 1895 in Boston and tucked away in the right on one page was information about the first snows of the season… for the previous HUNDRED years. Some record keeping more precise than others. Fascinating. Have a look: https://imgur.com/a/scoLryT (if image is too low quality to be legible let me know.)

  98. The Pacific Ocean has had a rather quiet tropical season this year, but right now do they ever have a monster heading into the Philippines, Super Typhoon Goni with max sustained winds of 180 MPH. The center will be passing close to Manila tomorrow. It reaches the islands to the east as a powerful typhoon but will be on a steady weakening trend as it passes through the region. This area of the world is hit frequently and they are generally well-prepared for such events. More good news is that Goni will continue to weaken and not really gain any of its strength back as it heads across the South China Sea, eventually reaching Vietnam in a few days as a tropical storm.

  100. I’m looking at this Sunday system.

    Not out of the question that we’ll get a strong thunderstorm squall line, 48 hrs after getting a moderate snowfall.

  101. Looking out the window this morning, it was like the dead of
    Winter. Amazing! Down to 24 at my house in JP. Pretty
    chilly for October.

    1. Agreed and that snow cover, light winds and clear skies certainly got it colder than it would have been without the snow.

  103. Thanks Tom. It’s amazing to see snow cover in SNE and totally bare in NNE.
    I can’t ever recall that even in the dead of winter, let alone the fall, or early spring for that matter.

    Only in 2020! 😉

  104. Update soon…
    Walk & epic photo shoot early to mid morning was far more of a priority today. 🙂

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