The Week Ahead Plus (November 21-30)

9:06PM

Venturing a little further out on the limb this week to try to nail down the last 10 days of November. One thing’s for sure, despite some brief shots of cold air, we remain in a warmer than normal pattern and that will continue through month’s end.

The discussion will be short, because there are really no changes from the previous one, only adding some days at the end. What follows is a brief summary of upcoming weather for the Boston area followed by a detailed forecast.

A cold front moving through tonight is bringing only clouds but no precipitation with it. High pressure builds across northern New England Monday into Tuesday as the cold front settles just to the south and waits for low pressure to form and move along it. High pressure will hold wet weather off through Tuesday but some clouds will sneak in at times. Low pressure will cross New England from southwest to northeast Wednesday with a period of rain for the Boston area (too warm for snow this time). I still expect this to be a fast-moving feature with improvement for Thanksgiving, though along with a gusty breeze and chilly air. Much like the last few weeks, high pressure will build across the Northeast then offshore late in the week with mostly fair weather and a warming trend. The last few days of November will see at least one period of unsettled weather as low pressure tries to move in from the south and west, but may be slowed by high pressure hanging around just off the East Coast.

Details…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 40-45. Wind shifting to NW 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. High 45-50. Wind NE 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 35-40. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 45-50. Wind SE 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain developing before midnight from southwest to northeast. Low 40-45. Wind SE 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain through midday, ending southwest to northeast by 3PM. High 53-58. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW by early afternoon and N by late day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 33-38. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Clearing. High 42-47. Wind N-NW 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 51.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 56.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 59.

MONDAY (NOV 28): Chance of rain. Temps above normal.

TUESDAY (NOV 29): Mostly cloudy. Temps above normal.

WEDNESDAY (NOV 30): Partly sunny. Temps above normal.

107 replies on “The Week Ahead Plus (November 21-30)”

  1. Thanks TK. It looks like the beat goes on with this mild regime. I am hoping this pattern breaks down just a little bit for some snow during December and hopefully have a white Christmas.

    1. Wouldn’t it be ironic if we had a white Halloween (in most areas) and a bare ground Christmas?

      1. Is it to early to see if that may be possible. The last few years though we have received a good snow storm before christmas. I predict a plowable storm right before.

  2. TK, when do you think cold air will arrive. I know it’s locked up in Canada and Alaska these days. In fact, I think I read that Fairbanks is experiencing record setting low temps, like -25 every day.

    1. When Alaska warms up and loses its cold snap, and stays that way for more than 5 days, we’ll be due for a regime change shortly thereafter.

      1. I think I remembered TK saying something about a tropical storm in the pacific that would induce the pattern change.

  3. Logan already has a high today of 59F reached after midnight, so in spite of the slowly falling temps today, in the climate records, its a mild day.

    I’m kind of curious to see how cold interior and northern New England get tonight. Not for any snow on Wednesday’s storm, but just because the temps will be cooling today and if areas can remain clear and calm, I think there’s a chance at temp freefall.

  4. Thank you TK!!!

    Tom I have your date recorded. These are the dates I have so far

    Philip 12/19
    JimmyJames 12/8
    Vicki 12/9
    Rainshine 12/11
    Tom 1/29
    John 12/10
    Old Salty 1/2
    Scott 12/5
    Hadi 12/9

    1. I would say at the moment, Tom and Old Salty have the right idea…if we are still in the mild regime for New Year’s then Tom would be the “last standing”.

      Perhaps we get a cold & snowy February-March-early April??…assuming it snows much at all this winter.

  5. Can Siberia determine NewEngland weather. above temps for this winter and near normal snowfall is the call. Go to bostonchannel. com and read the article by Harvey Leonard.

  6. I am little nervous with my prediction for the 8th. If I am wrong I hope it will be shortly there after.
    Rainorma for the big Wednesday travel day and it looks like will get through November without any measurable snowfall.

    1. All of the models are in farily good agreement. For sure they are all calling for, well as JJ says, a rainorama, followed by a quick warm up.

      We had an early tease on this system, but it reverted back to same ole same ole.

    1. Thanks OS for the article…I guess it’s safe to say that chances for above normal snowfall this winter for SNE especially is very slim. Even “normal” snowfall is probably already fading fast. 🙁

      1. One never knows for certain. Time will tell. I had predicted
        60 inches. I think that I am probably way off. Right now, it’s
        not looking so good, but there is plenty of time. It’s only 11/21.

  7. Thanks TK…this forecast looks very good other than the Wednesday rain until mid-afternoon. Most any activity (football, travel, shopping, etc.) should go as planned.

    The only concern is will Christmas weekend next month have similar mild temps? I have a feeling that our landscape will look much the same other than completely bare trees and the usual stubborn “oaks”.

  8. Remember last winter when we had little snow prior to Christmas then bam starting with the post Christmas blizzard we ended up getting the majority of the 81 inches last year in a six week span. Things could change and Joe Bastardi said a few months ago on Fox Business Channel he thought the biggest snowstorm would happen in late February. Is Joe going by The Farmers’ Almanac which calls for a big storm between the 20-23rd of February???

    1. I remember that one. It started first thing in the morning and went all day and night. It was managable till night time. I remember driving home at 9pm that night and could not see a thing. I think we got like 8or so inches.

    1. You are probably correct, but the 850Mb temps and the 1000-500MB thickness do indicate that it “could” make it to sea level elevations.

      Cheers

  9. Here is a link to an article on ‘Thickness’ as a measure of how warm or cold a layer of the atmosphere is. It is critical for discussions of rain vs. Snow. We typically speak
    of the 540 line (1000-500MB thickness) and the 850MB temperatures, but this
    has other thicknesses to use as well. It gets a bit technical in places, but it is not a bad read.

    http://www.weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/152

  10. maybe someone can comment on ocean temps and average?

    My guess is that it’s not cooling off in a great hurry which will be problematic when storms do show up. Can’t you just see lots of mid-level warming and lousy sleet & ice storms.

    1. Retrac,

      Here is the latest Bouy info off of Boston:

      BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
      (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
      Last Updated: Nov 21 2011, 8:50 am EST
      Mon, 21 Nov 2011 08:50:00 -0500
      Temperature: 46.2 °F (7.9 °C)
      Dewpoint: 37.9 °F (3.3 °C)
      Wind: Northeast at 17.9 MPH (15.55 KT)
      Wind Chill: 39 F (4 C)
      MSL Pressure: 1024.9 mb
      Water Temperature: 51.4 °F (10.8 °C)
      Wave Height: 0.9 m (2.95 ft)
      Dominant Period: 4 sec
      Average Period: 3.5 sec

      As to “Average”: I have been following these bouy temperatures for many, many years. I have never kept a file on them, so anything I say is gut.
      I can remember a below average year when the water temp was 46 on
      Thanksgiving Day. An average year would have the temp drop below 50
      by the end of November.

      Based on that, I would say we are above average. We really want to see it
      drop into the 40s by now and it ain’t gonna happen. It’s really only dropped
      a few degrees in the last month. It won’t drop significantly until we get
      that regime change and even then the ocean temps only respond slowly to
      Air temp changes above it.

      1. Here are the Average Sea Surface Temperature off of Boston:

        October 57
        November 51
        December 42
        January 40
        February 36
        March 41
        April 47

        The biggest drop in Temperature is after the regime change
        in December. If that happens late, then all of the temps would be higher for a year and conversely, lower.

      1. Not at all. I think I am going to put myself in the mindset that this winter may be a dud overall. Still holding out hope but it does not look good.

  11. Thanks for the link even though it was not great news. I had this feeling since August that Boston would not get more than 50 inches of snow for the upcoming winter. Will see if the 40-45 inch range I gave was too high.

  12. I’m shifting from hoping for a big storm at the coast in January to warmer than normal temps for walks on the beach 🙂 And those water temps will keep me out of the ocean for the polar dip on New Year’s day – anyone on the south shore take part in the one at Humarock? I’m working on talking my son-in-law and nieces boyfriend. My son did it years ago but will be working that day.

  13. My high snow total is not looking so good right now:) Thanks for the info OS!!!

    I do remember that this time last year we were talking about how little snow we had into early Decemeber and how bad it was going to be and then bam the snow started!!! So let’s see what where we are in January!

  14. Hadi I said the same thing earlier. You get three 10 inch snow events and a bunch of small ones you could still have normal to slightly above normal for the season.

  15. OS I noticed a bunch of models throwing cold air on the back side down to our area, but the precip is pretty much done by then.

    1. Hadi,

      Agreed. What surprised me by the above model was its pronounced
      Southerly track, not depicted by the other models. Just wondering if the Canadian model is onto something or just an outlier????

    1. Oh, Certainly. I was looking at the better “possibility” of backside snow with
      a more Southerly track. Even with a more Southerly track, we are cooked
      on the front end for sure.

  16. No way but rain here for Boston except maybe a snow shower at the end. Also the NAM always seems to throw too much precip on the back end and it rarely materializes.

  17. Matt Noyes made an interesting point from a tweet saying that this year we still have lingering effects of Southern US drought/heat which should help to push storm track bit farther north, warmth too. You also have the la Nina to contend with as well.
    I also noticed the 12z NAM’s back lash precip, but that may be over done.

  18. The La Nina is weaker this year and not as strong as it was this time last year. The news is not encouraging if you are a snowlover. I may be rooting for the Farmers’ Almanac to be correct as they are calling for some potent east coast storms in February.

  19. No surprise winter storm watches went for parts of Northern New England. I think its look for the next potential wintry chance and that won’t be until sometime in December hopefully.

  20. i’m actually going to north conway next weekend (dec 3,4). maybe they’ll still be snow on the ground….maybe it’ll snow..who knows

    1. I spent about every weekend growing up in north Conway skiing cranmore. Great memories. My dad taught skiing with Schneider. Enjoy!!!

  21. 18Z GFS
    Same ole, same ole. Warm, not as South and progressive with virtually no backend
    precip.

    Why do I bother checking all of these models. I now its going to rain and rain some more. Lol

    We’ll see if anything changes later. not counting on it.

    1. Usually the NAM is the model that makes last minute shift changes, which usually ends up verifying. The GFS just stays steady at this point.
      It seems the cold air for this one is very limited, not to mention a 51 degree ocean. Also it just doesn’t usually snow in November around here.
      Plenty of actual winter to go, although there are signs saying this mild pattern will last well into the winter, the PNA is supposed to go positive, and the water temps are going down. There will be a flip in the pattern sometime in the future.
      As JJ said earlier, a lot of us were losing hope on last years winter, 6 weeks later we were all becoming terminally ill of winter.

      1. Like I said before snowlovers will get there snow. No disrespect,
        but just be patient it is going to turn wintry. Harvey leonard just said this might be one of the warmest thanksgiving weekends that we have seen with temps in the 60s. Even if it does not snow in december, January and Feb could make up for
        that. I still predict plowable snow before christmas.

  22. I just hope for 2-3 good Noreaster’s during the winter and I will be happy. I already got one with the pre halloween Noreaster. That would be something if that storm produced the most snow of all the snow events we have this winter.

  23. Since Tropical Storm Irene, our lights have gone out or flickered more than they used to anytime it gets real windy. The October snowstorm, if I remember, we were lucky that the lights never went out completely but did flicker on and off a lot for several hours. One day last wk. on a particularly windy day we lost electricity for awhile.This may sound silly – but I am concerned with the next storm we will be getting. I know we could get lots of rain but now I am seeing windy? I am planning to buy a fresh turkey tomorrow and I hope we don’t lose electricity on Weds.! And I guess I am going to be paranoid for some time as I know there will be leftovers – even ‘though I freeze any leftover turkey and such. Oh, well. Anyway, I have been enjoying reading all the info. and links you guys have been showing.

    1. Rainshine. Mac and I were just saying the same thing. We have not lost power here in a decade and before that it was sporadic. Since Irene we have lost it six times including the oct storm. It would make life interesting not having power to cook thanksgiving dinner.

  24. wow…temp profiles for this weekend look really nice…again…just paid $3.83 for oil…happy to see extended mild weather.

  25. Hurricane Kenneth in the eastern Pacific, looking quite healthy. I cant help but think that the hemisphere’s atmospheric conditions that are allowing for countless east coast ridges is tied into an overall pattern that is featuring an area of low shear over the eastern Tropical Pacific promoting tropical development this late into November.

  26. 8:30pm might be a good time for Kansas City’s timezone, but for New England, its too late for me. Not watching the last game worked well, I will be skipping tonight’s as well. See Bruins are ahead after 1st period……….I know all the snow that fell late in October, but to me, today was the coldest airmass of the year so far because it was that cold with no heavy precip falling to cool the column. Impressive to watch temps fall to 40F by mid afternoon with the sun out. Too bad coastal areas have a light east wind tonight, it would have been nice to see how low those locations could have gone without the influence of the relatively mild ocean.

  27. I hate it when these games start 8:30 and later because there over just before midnight which is too late for people who have to get up early for work.

  28. pats offense looks like they have concrete in their shoes.

    nice game B’s.

    Looks cold in foxborough. can we bottle that up.

  29. Is it too late to take 25 inches off my snow total forecast? 😉

    La Nina is wimping out enough that it, along with other things, have me concerned. We may come in below normal snow-wise when all is said and done.

    Great Bruins game! Enjoyed it thoroughly. Who says you need lots of goals?

    Never worried about the Pats in this game despite the slow start. They’ll continue to pour it on.

  30. This pattern does not favor decent snow for most of new england. this pattern that we are seeing now is what we saw in 2009 winter season but if the mid week storm draws the cold air like the models are hinting at then we might be in luck. If you look the gfs it has the 540 line generally to our south after the storm… i think more normal temperatures will be around next thursday and friday. i think this pattern will be gone by the first day of winter .we will get our snow but remember that for most normal years we usually do not see any snow storms creating more than 6 to 8 inches before Christmas in southern new england besides for possibly the berkshires . remember last year most of our snow occured after Christmas and before febuary 10th. I think we will have near normal snowfall and a tad above normal temps but not by much.

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