Monday November 16 2020 Forecast (7:25AM)

20 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Discussion…

A west to northwesterly air flow will dominate the first 3 days of the week, with a colder trend. A few rain/snow showers will accompany a cold front and upper level disturbance passing through the region on Tuesday, bringing air feeling more like winter by Wednesday. A moderating trend gets underway later in the week as high pressure, first to our west helping to deliver the colder air, slips off to the south and helps push in milder air.

Details…

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 46-53. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing rain and/or snow showers are possible. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a passing snow shower possible, then clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

We’ll be close to a boundary between mild air to our south and Canadian cold, as noted previously. We may find it flip flopping back and forth on us one day to the next which will help determine temperatures. Right now my best guess is we will be on the cooler side of the boundary November 21, 23, and 25, the milder side the other 2 days, and the only chance of significant precipitation (probably rain or rain showers) would come about November 24.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

The final 5 days of the month look like they will be dominated by a general westerly air flow but still with us not too far from the cold / warm air boundary, so at least once in there we should see air mass changes and at least one opportunity for precipitation, probably around mid period.

20 thoughts on “Monday November 16 2020 Forecast (7:25AM)”

  3. Back to the “new” version I see. I actually like this one the best. It’s a bit easier to negotiate with my phone as I don’t have to scroll as much.

    Thanks TK! 🙂

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Picked up 0.62 inch with last nights event.

    It was funny that there was a severe thunderstorm warning
    with absolutely no thunder at all. I realize the warning was
    for the potential wind damage, but it really struck me that
    it was a severe thunderstorm warning with NO thunder. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Only 0.34 inch at Logan. No thunder recorded there either. No thunder (or lightning) at Gillette to my knowledge since the announcers never mentioned it as the officials certainly would have stopped the game. It did seem to rain the hardest down there. I wonder if there was close to an inch?

      IMO if it had been mostly dry, I believe the Patriots would have easily lost the game, albeit a fairly close one. They can thank the weather gods.

  6. …CATEGORY 5 IOTA CLOSING IN ON NICARAGUA…
    …EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM
    SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL AMERICA…

    SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————-
    LOCATION…13.6N 82.7W
    ABOUT 55 MI…90 KM ESE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
    ABOUT 100 MI…165 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…160 MPH…260 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…919 MB…27.14 INCHES

    1. Just incredible. Down to 919 mb and 160 mph sustained winds about to make landfall in Puerto Cabezas….virtually the same exact spot as the last hurricane.

      I can only imagine the complete devastation in that area.

  9. What I take from these Caribbean hurricanes is that La Niña has strongly affected the northern hemisphere (ie : low shear in the tropics) and so, whatever the usual effects are on the mid northern hemisphere during winter, expect that outcome strongly.

  10. Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    3h

    We’ll still get some cold swipes (next 3 days, maybe a quickie next Tue-Wed) but the +EPO/+AO/+NAO theme means milder than average conditions should generally lead the way next couple weeks

  11. World Climate Service
    @WorldClimateSvc
    1h

    Today’s 46-day ECMWF shows a +4-5°C anomaly for the full month of December in the north-central USA (vs 20-year climatology). At face value that would rival the warmest Decembers on record in Minnesota, such as 2015 and 1997 – both super El Niño winters (Thinking face emoji)

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher

    Similar look on the CFS. Not like it’s “take it to the bank” or anything but looks like a mild finish to 2020 for now

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1328466771242868742?s=20

    1. Well, this is what I was somewhat indicating above. So, I’d kind of think very stormy and cool in the Pacific NW and intermountain NW …. East and southeast well above avg with either pacific air or Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean modified tropical air.

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