Wednesday November 18 2020 Forecast (8:24AM)

19 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Discussion…

A solid shot of cold air today accompanied by wind, while making it feel more like mid winter than later autumn, is not indicative of the longer term mild pattern we are in but is a good illustration of the cold shots we still get during a pattern like that, especially when our area will not be far from the boundary between more persistent warmth to the south and plenty of cold air helped a long by a lot of early snowfall in Canada. So we’re in the cold now, and that will be around into tomorrow, although after a very cold start tomorrow morning, we’ll start to moderate during the day as high pressure shifts off to the south and we get a milder west to southwest air flow, which brings in much milder air for Friday, the boundary having slipped north. But it comes back to the south again somewhat over the weekend and we get onto the cooler side again, although only slightly cooler this time as there is not a mechanism to deliver a good shot of cold from Canada. It will be more typical of a pattern we’ve seen many times since summer where high pressure slides across eastern Canada and we get more of a north to northeast air flow, weaker in comparison to the gusty northwest wind we see today.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 49-56. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

As mentioned previously, trying to time systems beyond a few days is difficult at best. Still looking like an unsettled day on November 23 as high pressure shifts offshore and a disturbance and frontal system moves in with a rain or rain shower threat. The front settles to the south after that and timing the next low pressure area is a challenge, with additional unsettled weather possible anywhere from later November 24 through November 25, but not likely for the entire time. High pressure should move in with drier weather later in the period, including Thanksgiving Day (November 26).

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

The last days of November to the start of December should see a continued generally westerly (zonal) flow with our area often in the boundary zone between mild air to the south and colder air to the north. Early period is most likely to see some unsettled weather with a front in the vicinity.

19 thoughts on “Wednesday November 18 2020 Forecast (8:24AM)”

  7. I will take the long range outlook with a HUGH grain of salt. When I woke up last Saturday morning the 0z GFS had a widespread 12-18 inch snow event the day before Thanksgiving.

    1. Now it has started its downward treck. Down to 31. So, 32 was the day time high. It was as high as 35 shortly after Midnight.

    1. Thanks for posting. Jay’s Peak is wonderful.

      I think Jay’s Peak will have another banner year. They’ll be right in the battle zone between cold air to the north and milder air to the south. I think the jet stream will bring plenty of lows just south of Jay’s Peak and heading due east/northeast, which should mean a lot of snow in the Northern mountains.

  12. Thank you, TK.

    I love days like today. The first truly winter-cold sunny day is always a treat. I feel rejuvenated somehow.

    Now, if we could get a pattern shift that would make days like today the norm rather than the exception this winter that would be much appreciated. But, that’s up to the weather gods, and I don’t mean meteorologists.

    1. Probably much of this upcoming winter will have short term shots of cold and medium to extended terms of mild/warmth. It all adds up to a dud of a winter in terms of snow. Oh well.

  13. Thanks TK.

    Nice sharp cold shot today, another short duration one in the continued mild overall pattern. This is quite an anomalous air mass, 850mb temperatures aren’t far from record observed lows for the date. But again, short duration with a mutli-day warm-up on the way.

    I’ve felt pretty comfortable with the medium to long (~2-3 week) pattern for quite awhile now. It’s been the same high predictability pattern of prevailing warmth with quick cold shots. Model performance has been good overall. Very typical La Nina pattern. But now I’m a little uncertain now about how things go beyond Thanksgiving. If you look at the 12z GEFS, for example, it’s basically the opposite of what TK has in his days 11-15 above – the mild air is north and the cold is south, more in line with a typical El Nino pattern than a La Nina one. Going to need to dig a little deeper in the coming days.

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