DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
Yesterday’s anomalous cold and last night’s clear sky and lighter wind combined to set up one cold start to this morning, but as high pressure sinks to the south of New England we begin a moderation in short order, but that moderation will be tempered a little today due to a very low launching pad and limited daylight to help warm things up – it’s that time of year! A warm front with some high cloudiness will pass by today as well, and while filtering the sunshine at times today, it will lead to helping accelerate the warm-up on Friday, which will end up much milder. We’ll remain on the mild side of this front into early Saturday, but high pressure in eastern Canada will push the boundary back to the south during Saturday, shifting our wind to north and northeast later Saturday into Sunday, with cooler air (though not as cold as recently) settling in. During Sunday, however, a warm front will approach the region with increasing cloudiness and we may even deal with some wet weather before the day is done. This is more likely to take place Sunday night into Monday as low pressure tracks north of the region, finally pushing its cold front across the region later Monday, at which time any rain threat will end, just in time for the arrival of a new cold air mass from Canada Monday night.
TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH, gusts to 20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Clouding over. Highs 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 42-49. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely through early afternoon. Breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W late.
DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
Guidance all over the place, with different runs of the same model somewhat inconsistent and varying solutions between models, so they’re not a lot of help in general, but what appears to be is that we’ll be in a fairly active pattern, as previously hinted at, being near a battle between cold air in Canada and warmer air to our south. Initially, cold high pressure wins the battle with dry weather and below normal temperatures November 24. The November 25-26 period will likely bring a period of unsettled weather as low pressure moves into the Northeast via the Ohio Valley, with rain favored over any other precipitation type as cold air retreats quickly. Other than that, the detail of timing remains uncertain and will be fine-tuned. Briefly drier about November 27 before the next unsettled system moves through at the end of the period.
DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)
The overall pattern will be fast-flowing, zonal (west-to-east), with our region still sitting in the battle zone between cold north and warm south. While none of the disturbances to come through appear they’d have much time to evolve into major storms, we should deal with a couple of episodes of precipitation and frequent air mass changes, but no very large temperature departures from seasonal averages that last any length of time.