39 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – November 25 2020”
Is today Ground Hog Day? 😀
Here is Scott Hayward’s weekly update from the Tupelo Music Hall is Derry, NH. For me, these messages provide insight into the effects of the pandemic on local businesses as well as inspiration in a time of difficulty.
I’m surprised they are not doing virtual or did I miss that they are? I have purchased tickets for a number of virtual performances.
Wayside Inn Sudbury has a performance of the Christmas carol. Vaillancourt has a one man performance of the same by a descendent of dickens. I have tickets to the first. The second you can rent the video virtually for seven days.
The Boston ballet nutcracker will be televised at no charge on nbc10. I have times and dates of I have not already posted here
Yesterday, after another record day for hospitalizations (we’re closing in on 89k for the nation) and 2,187 deaths, I figured I’d rant a bit about Atlas. the following is a repost with edits from last night:
What gets me so irate at people like Scott Atlas (and the whole Great Barrington Declaration cult) is their ignorance. Atlas is a doctor and intelligent. The GBD folks are very smart. But, he and they know little about what is actually happening in the world around them. He and GBD offer Sweden as the `right’ solution because in his (their) view it didn’t lock down and is reaching herd immunity.
Well, regarding herd immunity it’s crystal clear Sweden isn’t there at all. Sweden’s top infectious disease expert Anders Tegnell stated this week that the country has “not seen evidence of herd immunity slowing the spread of the coronavirus” in the country. Its second wave is expanding, along with hospitalizations and deaths.
“We see no signs of immunity in the population that are slowing down the infection right now,” Tegnell said.
Tegnell added that contrary to media reports, “we definitely had a virtual lockdown. …“Swedes have changed their behavior enormously. We stopped traveling even more than our neighboring countries. The airports had no flights anywhere, the trains were running at a few per cent of normal service, so there were enormous changes in society.”
He continued by mentioning bar closures, restaurants with 25%-50% capacity, no gatherings at all with more than 50 people, inside or outside.
Tegnell emphasized that while he hoped for herd immunity, it was never a policy aim.
I must say, nowhere in America did we even have the degree of `virtual’ lockdown Tegnell is referring to, especially regarding travel and just people being out and about. Even in Massachusetts the (air/car/train/bus) traffic slowdown lasted all of about 4 weeks or so, and it wasn’t ever a standstill like in Sweden. Yet, Atlas believes his own misperception, and then has the audacity to yell on Twitter a couple of weeks ago “take back your freedom … don’t let governors impede you.”
I do understand the inconvenience of shutdowns. And, I’m not in favor of draconian measures. But, I don’t like it when a false argument is being offered to support so-called `freedom’ movements in their quest to `take back our liberty.’
Ultimately, liberty is not an absolute concept. The Swedes get that. Heck, I believe most Americans get that. Individual liberty doesn’t override everything. No-one is an island. While we may always say, write, and express ourselves as we want, we may not always do as we want. As such, we may not invariably act out our freedom physically without impunity if it harms or has the potential to harm others.
Thank you Joshua. I didn’t know what the GBD was so read about it. Good grief. I truly am tired of Sweden being used in so many different ways that it makes your head spin. Most amazing of all are the folks on the right who point out how it didn’t need restrictions and hold that as a banner that ours are too strict…ya know….the same folks who damn Sweden because it represents socialism that will destroy the United States.
I’d say we are doing a damned good job of destroy ourselves.
With the numbers getting higher & higher Governor Baker is campaigning big time to have all of the schools in the state full time by January. He references how the catholic schools are doing it with no issues . My sons school has had some cases but to date in fairness it’s been pretty good so far . We are notified by email of every case . I think the remote option to keep your kid at home needs to stay in place as that what we are doing because of other health concerns. I think the numbers two weeks after thanksgiving will be so high he may change his tune . He’s really a different Governor this time around in my opinion only
I think having schools open with a remote option for students is sensible and accommodations for teachers and staff to teach remotely who are high risk or live in the same household as someone who is high risk. The positivity rate among teachers and staff is less than 0.25% across the country and even lower for students. Having zero Covid cases come into a school is not a reasonable goal–it’s all about mitigating the risk through masks, distancing, and adequate ventilation so it’s not spread in school–and to date schools are not identified as places where there is a high risk of spread. Districts that cannot do that will need to remain hybrid but should in parallel be looking for ways to increase in-person instruction through creative use of space, etc–but those who can, should be open in full.
I can’t speak for middle/high school as that’s not my background, but I can say that in-person instruction for elementary school is essential and the public health risk of being out of school outweighs the public health risk of young children acquiring and transmitting covid-19 at school when proper precautions are taken.
My opinion–I realize it may not be a popular one. Check out this site–there is a cool data analysis tool where you can run lots of different scenarios.
SSK. I agree with Dave. And think you are saying the same thing. As long as it is safe, I feel in person is an option. I do believe the choice of remote will remain. If not, my daughters will home school.
I do think schools should be full remote two weeks after thanksgiving…..one minimum. I know at least one NH school system is going full remote from now to MLK day
The question is …..what is safe? The schools out here are having positives in the elementary grades.
Dave, I’m looking for the number that 0.25 represents. Do you have it? I’m not a fan of percents
Sons school doing 3 remote next week and did two this week . They had no school today
Joshua, regarding the Canadian Thanksgiving last month, was it all THAT horrible soon afterwards like Gov. Baker portrayed it at his press conference?
It does appear that many are giving the CDC the “finger” if you will and are traveling heavily anyway. What the heck I suppose. Let’s see what happens in the coming weeks. I bet it won’t get any worse than it is now. 🙂
It’s too bad that while temps tomorrow will be very favorable for “outdoor” Thanksgiving dining around here, the rainfall will prevent any opportunity to do so.
Not what Faucci ( probably wrong spelling ) said . He said if folks go on business as usual look for numbers to go insanely high.
That’s why I would like to know how bad it was in Canada following their Thanksgiving.
Regarding remote learning, I suspect that at least school bullying is no longer an issue. One less of a problem for those bullying victims.
I think the flip side of that is some kids are not safe at home and do not get food and that is worrisome
Or Spouses as domestic abuse is at an all time high . Have a nice thanksgiving Vicki
Sad isn’t it. But kids can be identified in school. We are literally between a rock and a hard place
Good points SSK, Vicki as I hadn’t thought of domestic abuse as well. Always something.
I suppose there have been kids that have had to deal with both at the same time as well. Hopefully that is rare.
Not exactly–cyberbullying is still an issue, and harder to manage as you’re not physically with the students.
Joshua: Walsh made a comment about not shutting restaurants down now because data seems to be going much better trending in the right direction. How are we trending in the right direction with these incredibly high daily numbers Everyday. Just yesterday was it pushing close to 3K that’s better .
I just heard that Boston restaurants are allowed to open all winter…as long as they have outdoor dining. Those heaters will be cranking for sure.
With a partial answer to my above question….a parent from fairfax county VA wrote a great article re kids in school back I mid summer . For his one county, there are 189,000 kids….he didn’t include teachers. That is 472 positives ….just in that county. Please someone check my math. It was estimated then….when we falsely believed kids don’t get covid….that .0016 percent of children would not survive. That is 302 children
This is why I don’t like percentages.
While so far, schools are doing better than anticipated, which is why I tend to agree with Dave…..not what I consider the best solution but still…..as long as teachers and staff are not forced and of course kids are not forced.
As a reminder, in many areas of our state, focus is on education for in person kids ……and that is beyond inexcusable
Enrollment in MA public schools this year has dropped dramatically by more than 37,000 students. About 46% of the enrollment decrease is attributed to K and pre-K. In older students, the drop is only 2.4%.
The majority of those students have switched to private schools.
I can’t find a source. I know a lot have switched to home schooling but don’t have numbers.
It’s from an article in today’s Boston Herald. The info is according to MA DESE.
I’m finding it too. Thanks guys.
Private schools went up in enrollment
I found this. Oddly, many school systems…ours included …have full in person for pre-k to first. My youngest grand would have gone to pre-k this year but was held until next. She will not start K until 2022. First year is when kids pick up every germ imaginable so with covid it was not even a long discussion
I just heard this statement from a Chicago official. It may have been from their Mayor but I’m not certain.
“It is better to Zoom this Thanksgiving than ICU for Christmas”.
I’ve seen that meme too and how true it is. Thank you for the reminder.
A study in contrasts: Europe v. America
European leaders are on TV and social media every day imploring citizens to follow the guidelines, and ensuring consistency in protocols. Noticeably absent from their addresses to citizens is talk about the vaccines. It is mentioned in separate announcements, BUT is not the main message to the people. Nor should it be. Conspicuously, schools remain open throughout most of Europe, that is, in-person classes. Cases are dropping dramatically. Hospitalizations are decreasing, though slower than the case decline. That pace will accelerate next week. Deaths are still high but are past peak this week and will start a rapid decrease next week.
In America … crickets from the White House. Trump is playing a lot of golf, pardoning turkeys – both the animal and human kind – and spending an inordinate amount of time disputing election results while raising money – grifting – for his corrupt election defense fund. State and local leaders are doing an inadequate and woefully inconsistent job in messaging, and are sometimes being downright hypocritical (Governors of Colorado and California). But, everyone seems to be talking about the vaccines, almost as if it’s our savior. It is NOT in the short- and even medium term. Mitigation measures are. Vaccines won’t begin to truly help for several more months. By that time, they may actually be redundant, as the virus is burning relentlessly through the country with NO resistance. My guess is we’re at >1 million infections a day at this point. We’ve probably already had 60 million infections. Then there’s T-cell cross reactivity that perhaps another 50 million people have from previous exposure to other coronaviruses. My back-of-the-envelope calculation says we’re possibly in danger of making vaccines moot by reaching herd immunity (65-70% of population) through natural infection by February/March with all its negative, attendant consequences. Cases and hospitalizations are at record highs (the latter is really concerning as it’s over 90,000), and deaths today are nearing record territory (!) at over 2,350 already today. Adding insult to injury test positivity is back over 10%.
I don’t even know how to respond. We are truly a ship of fools.
To those folks who are ignoring what science has PROVEN works…..you are responsible.
Welcome to…The “Divided” States of America. 🙁
Just so you know, I like the federal system in which states have a considerable amount of autonomy. But, I don’t think this should ever apply to public health. For the purposes of public health there needs to be consistency. This problem occurred, by the way, during the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the 1980s and early 90s. Differences in state policies – especially regarding messaging, but also funding – contributed to inequities in health outcomes of AIDS patients. It took an act of Congress in 1992 to sort of rectify this.
I’m not sure if anybody wants to converse about C-19 today, but I put the post up anyway, just in case.
Comments are closed.
Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
Is today Ground Hog Day? 😀
Here is Scott Hayward’s weekly update from the Tupelo Music Hall is Derry, NH. For me, these messages provide insight into the effects of the pandemic on local businesses as well as inspiration in a time of difficulty.
https://myemail.constantcontact.com/Tupelo-Weekly–More-Changes—Being-Thankful.html?soid=1101496966722&aid=Ixy4OSwKALQ
I’m surprised they are not doing virtual or did I miss that they are? I have purchased tickets for a number of virtual performances.
Wayside Inn Sudbury has a performance of the Christmas carol. Vaillancourt has a one man performance of the same by a descendent of dickens. I have tickets to the first. The second you can rent the video virtually for seven days.
The Boston ballet nutcracker will be televised at no charge on nbc10. I have times and dates of I have not already posted here
I’m really looking forward to this
https://tsolivestream.com/tso/livestream/
Yesterday, after another record day for hospitalizations (we’re closing in on 89k for the nation) and 2,187 deaths, I figured I’d rant a bit about Atlas. the following is a repost with edits from last night:
What gets me so irate at people like Scott Atlas (and the whole Great Barrington Declaration cult) is their ignorance. Atlas is a doctor and intelligent. The GBD folks are very smart. But, he and they know little about what is actually happening in the world around them. He and GBD offer Sweden as the `right’ solution because in his (their) view it didn’t lock down and is reaching herd immunity.
Well, regarding herd immunity it’s crystal clear Sweden isn’t there at all. Sweden’s top infectious disease expert Anders Tegnell stated this week that the country has “not seen evidence of herd immunity slowing the spread of the coronavirus” in the country. Its second wave is expanding, along with hospitalizations and deaths.
“We see no signs of immunity in the population that are slowing down the infection right now,” Tegnell said.
Tegnell added that contrary to media reports, “we definitely had a virtual lockdown. …“Swedes have changed their behavior enormously. We stopped traveling even more than our neighboring countries. The airports had no flights anywhere, the trains were running at a few per cent of normal service, so there were enormous changes in society.”
He continued by mentioning bar closures, restaurants with 25%-50% capacity, no gatherings at all with more than 50 people, inside or outside.
Tegnell emphasized that while he hoped for herd immunity, it was never a policy aim.
I must say, nowhere in America did we even have the degree of `virtual’ lockdown Tegnell is referring to, especially regarding travel and just people being out and about. Even in Massachusetts the (air/car/train/bus) traffic slowdown lasted all of about 4 weeks or so, and it wasn’t ever a standstill like in Sweden. Yet, Atlas believes his own misperception, and then has the audacity to yell on Twitter a couple of weeks ago “take back your freedom … don’t let governors impede you.”
I do understand the inconvenience of shutdowns. And, I’m not in favor of draconian measures. But, I don’t like it when a false argument is being offered to support so-called `freedom’ movements in their quest to `take back our liberty.’
Ultimately, liberty is not an absolute concept. The Swedes get that. Heck, I believe most Americans get that. Individual liberty doesn’t override everything. No-one is an island. While we may always say, write, and express ourselves as we want, we may not always do as we want. As such, we may not invariably act out our freedom physically without impunity if it harms or has the potential to harm others.
Thank you Joshua. I didn’t know what the GBD was so read about it. Good grief. I truly am tired of Sweden being used in so many different ways that it makes your head spin. Most amazing of all are the folks on the right who point out how it didn’t need restrictions and hold that as a banner that ours are too strict…ya know….the same folks who damn Sweden because it represents socialism that will destroy the United States.
I’d say we are doing a damned good job of destroy ourselves.
With the numbers getting higher & higher Governor Baker is campaigning big time to have all of the schools in the state full time by January. He references how the catholic schools are doing it with no issues . My sons school has had some cases but to date in fairness it’s been pretty good so far . We are notified by email of every case . I think the remote option to keep your kid at home needs to stay in place as that what we are doing because of other health concerns. I think the numbers two weeks after thanksgiving will be so high he may change his tune . He’s really a different Governor this time around in my opinion only
I think having schools open with a remote option for students is sensible and accommodations for teachers and staff to teach remotely who are high risk or live in the same household as someone who is high risk. The positivity rate among teachers and staff is less than 0.25% across the country and even lower for students. Having zero Covid cases come into a school is not a reasonable goal–it’s all about mitigating the risk through masks, distancing, and adequate ventilation so it’s not spread in school–and to date schools are not identified as places where there is a high risk of spread. Districts that cannot do that will need to remain hybrid but should in parallel be looking for ways to increase in-person instruction through creative use of space, etc–but those who can, should be open in full.
I can’t speak for middle/high school as that’s not my background, but I can say that in-person instruction for elementary school is essential and the public health risk of being out of school outweighs the public health risk of young children acquiring and transmitting covid-19 at school when proper precautions are taken.
My opinion–I realize it may not be a popular one. Check out this site–there is a cool data analysis tool where you can run lots of different scenarios.
https://covidschooldashboard.com
Thank you for your post, Dave.
I agree with you on this.
SSK. I agree with Dave. And think you are saying the same thing. As long as it is safe, I feel in person is an option. I do believe the choice of remote will remain. If not, my daughters will home school.
I do think schools should be full remote two weeks after thanksgiving…..one minimum. I know at least one NH school system is going full remote from now to MLK day
The question is …..what is safe? The schools out here are having positives in the elementary grades.
Dave, I’m looking for the number that 0.25 represents. Do you have it? I’m not a fan of percents
Sons school doing 3 remote next week and did two this week . They had no school today
“During the Covid-19 pandemic, the world is unwittingly conducting what amounts to the largest immunological experiment in history on our own children.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/25/opinion/sunday/covid-quarantine-children-immune-systems.html
Joshua, regarding the Canadian Thanksgiving last month, was it all THAT horrible soon afterwards like Gov. Baker portrayed it at his press conference?
It does appear that many are giving the CDC the “finger” if you will and are traveling heavily anyway. What the heck I suppose. Let’s see what happens in the coming weeks. I bet it won’t get any worse than it is now. 🙂
It’s too bad that while temps tomorrow will be very favorable for “outdoor” Thanksgiving dining around here, the rainfall will prevent any opportunity to do so.
Not what Faucci ( probably wrong spelling ) said . He said if folks go on business as usual look for numbers to go insanely high.
That’s why I would like to know how bad it was in Canada following their Thanksgiving.
Regarding remote learning, I suspect that at least school bullying is no longer an issue. One less of a problem for those bullying victims.
I think the flip side of that is some kids are not safe at home and do not get food and that is worrisome
Or Spouses as domestic abuse is at an all time high . Have a nice thanksgiving Vicki
Sad isn’t it. But kids can be identified in school. We are literally between a rock and a hard place
Good points SSK, Vicki as I hadn’t thought of domestic abuse as well. Always something.
I suppose there have been kids that have had to deal with both at the same time as well. Hopefully that is rare.
Not exactly–cyberbullying is still an issue, and harder to manage as you’re not physically with the students.
Joshua: Walsh made a comment about not shutting restaurants down now because data seems to be going much better trending in the right direction. How are we trending in the right direction with these incredibly high daily numbers Everyday. Just yesterday was it pushing close to 3K that’s better .
I just heard that Boston restaurants are allowed to open all winter…as long as they have outdoor dining. Those heaters will be cranking for sure.
With a partial answer to my above question….a parent from fairfax county VA wrote a great article re kids in school back I mid summer . For his one county, there are 189,000 kids….he didn’t include teachers. That is 472 positives ….just in that county. Please someone check my math. It was estimated then….when we falsely believed kids don’t get covid….that .0016 percent of children would not survive. That is 302 children
This is why I don’t like percentages.
While so far, schools are doing better than anticipated, which is why I tend to agree with Dave…..not what I consider the best solution but still…..as long as teachers and staff are not forced and of course kids are not forced.
As a reminder, in many areas of our state, focus is on education for in person kids ……and that is beyond inexcusable
Enrollment in MA public schools this year has dropped dramatically by more than 37,000 students. About 46% of the enrollment decrease is attributed to K and pre-K. In older students, the drop is only 2.4%.
The majority of those students have switched to private schools.
I can’t find a source. I know a lot have switched to home schooling but don’t have numbers.
It’s from an article in today’s Boston Herald. The info is according to MA DESE.
I’m finding it too. Thanks guys.
Private schools went up in enrollment
I found this. Oddly, many school systems…ours included …have full in person for pre-k to first. My youngest grand would have gone to pre-k this year but was held until next. She will not start K until 2022. First year is when kids pick up every germ imaginable so with covid it was not even a long discussion
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/09/920316481/enrollment-is-dropping-in-public-schools-around-the-country
Thanks, Phillip, for bringing this up
I just heard this statement from a Chicago official. It may have been from their Mayor but I’m not certain.
“It is better to Zoom this Thanksgiving than ICU for Christmas”.
I’ve seen that meme too and how true it is. Thank you for the reminder.
A study in contrasts: Europe v. America
European leaders are on TV and social media every day imploring citizens to follow the guidelines, and ensuring consistency in protocols. Noticeably absent from their addresses to citizens is talk about the vaccines. It is mentioned in separate announcements, BUT is not the main message to the people. Nor should it be. Conspicuously, schools remain open throughout most of Europe, that is, in-person classes. Cases are dropping dramatically. Hospitalizations are decreasing, though slower than the case decline. That pace will accelerate next week. Deaths are still high but are past peak this week and will start a rapid decrease next week.
In America … crickets from the White House. Trump is playing a lot of golf, pardoning turkeys – both the animal and human kind – and spending an inordinate amount of time disputing election results while raising money – grifting – for his corrupt election defense fund. State and local leaders are doing an inadequate and woefully inconsistent job in messaging, and are sometimes being downright hypocritical (Governors of Colorado and California). But, everyone seems to be talking about the vaccines, almost as if it’s our savior. It is NOT in the short- and even medium term. Mitigation measures are. Vaccines won’t begin to truly help for several more months. By that time, they may actually be redundant, as the virus is burning relentlessly through the country with NO resistance. My guess is we’re at >1 million infections a day at this point. We’ve probably already had 60 million infections. Then there’s T-cell cross reactivity that perhaps another 50 million people have from previous exposure to other coronaviruses. My back-of-the-envelope calculation says we’re possibly in danger of making vaccines moot by reaching herd immunity (65-70% of population) through natural infection by February/March with all its negative, attendant consequences. Cases and hospitalizations are at record highs (the latter is really concerning as it’s over 90,000), and deaths today are nearing record territory (!) at over 2,350 already today. Adding insult to injury test positivity is back over 10%.
I don’t even know how to respond. We are truly a ship of fools.
To those folks who are ignoring what science has PROVEN works…..you are responsible.
Welcome to…The “Divided” States of America. 🙁
Just so you know, I like the federal system in which states have a considerable amount of autonomy. But, I don’t think this should ever apply to public health. For the purposes of public health there needs to be consistency. This problem occurred, by the way, during the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the 1980s and early 90s. Differences in state policies – especially regarding messaging, but also funding – contributed to inequities in health outcomes of AIDS patients. It took an act of Congress in 1992 to sort of rectify this.
I’m not sure if anybody wants to converse about C-19 today, but I put the post up anyway, just in case.