DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

Discussion…

Well, here we are, the Wednesday through Sunday period that is traditionally known as “Thanksgiving Weekend”, which includes the day-before, the holiday itself, “Black Friday”, and the actual weekend. Not to beat a dead horse, but we all know that this year is very different for many of us, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a need for a weather forecast, so here’s mine for this 5 day period, and it goes something like this…. Initially, we sit in air that is quite cold especially away from the South Coast, so it’s a good thing that the warm front that approaches us is not a bigger generator of precipitation, or we’d be dealing with some frozen stuff. A quick look at the observations as of 7 a.m. will show temperatures from the upper 20s to lower 30s over southern NH and much of eastern MA with a very light northerly air flow, except for coastal and southern areas where it is in the upper 30s to lower 40s with a light wind mostly from the southeast. There may be a few flakes of snow, pellets of ice, and drops of rain that fall from these clouds in spotty locations today, but for the most part the air is dry enough between the mid level cloud deck and the surface that anything falling out of the clouds will dry up before reaching the surface. With the surface warm front still south of most of the area this evening, and a little more moisture available, we should see a period of light rain especially north of I-90 during the evening to overnight hours, and there may be just enough cold air still at the surface for a little icing if that rain is significant enough to wet the ground. This would be most likely over interior southern NH and far northern MA. Eventually as we get to Thanksgiving morning, the surface temperature should be warm enough in these areas that any ice threat would be gone. The front itself is going to struggle getting north of the I-90 area on Thursday, so the daytime temperatures will reflect that, holding in the 40s in southern NH and far northern MA while climbing into the 50s in areas to the south, especially nearer the South Coast where a few locations may make a run at 60. A cold front will sweep eastward toward the region during the day on Thanksgiving, but this version is a little weaker than what we saw back on Monday, and the low pressure area parenting it will be doing the “gelatin effect” and wobbling its way along the frontal boundary that had been struggling to move northward through the region. But regardless of the surface shenanigans, the upper level energy will be potent enough with this system for a couple solid rounds of showers, the first Thursday morning to midday, which may include thunder in some South Coast locations, and the second one from late afternoon into evening which may include downpours and embedded thunder anywhere in the region. Since the surface set-up will feature a little bit of a low pressure center over to just east of the region as it exits, we will have a lot of low level moisture left in place to start Friday, since we will lack a good westerly air flow to clear it all out of here like what we saw with Monday’s frontal passage. So it may take a good part of the day Friday to rid ourselves of the clouds, waiting for a little upper level disturbance to cross the region, which itself may kick off a shower. But don’t cancel any outdoor decorating plans for Friday because it will be a generally dry day with air not all that cold. Saturday and Sunday look like two very pleasant days with high pressure generally in control, although a weak surface trough still has to come through the region sometime during the first half of Saturday, most likely accompanied by some clouds but only the slightest chance of a rain shower.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy. Spotty very light snow/sleet/rain possible. Highs 37-44. Wind N to NE under 10 MPH interior southern NH and interior MA, E to SE up to 10 MPH elsewhere.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain/drizzle developing, with the potential for some icing interior southern NH and north central MA. Lows 31-38 southern NH and north central MA, 38-45 interior central MA to northeastern MA, and 45-52 in areas to the south during the evening. Temperatures may rise slightly overnight. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Cloudy. Numerous to widespread rain showers, especially morning and midday, including the chance of thunderstorms favoring the South Coast region. Highs 43-50 north of I-90, 51-58 to the south. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH north of I-90, SE to S 5-15 MPH to the south.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Spotty drizzle and patchy fog overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 50-57. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy morning. Sunny afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind W around 10 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 31-38. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

A large scale trough approaches from the west and our area will see a temperature moderation initially with wet weather moving in on November 30 and lingering on December 1 as a frontal boundary and up to a couple waves of low pressure move along the boundary. Should turn drier and somewhat cooler December 2-3 but unsettled weather may return before the period is over.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 5-9)

Seeing hints of some high latitude blocking and increased chances of unsettled weather here, but this pattern is likely to be slower to evolve than any guidance suggests at this point. Still watching the December 6-8 period for a potential unsettled weather event.