Warm November Winding Down

167 Comments

4:30PM

We continue with our mild spell for the last couple days of November, with some cooling as we get into December. No extreme cold is seen just yet.

I apologize for the lack of update yesterday and the short discussion today. A more comprehensive discussion should be posted later tonight.

In the mean time, updated Boston area forecast follows…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 44-49. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 61-66. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 50-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers through mid morning then becoming partly sunny. High 55-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 52.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 45.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 47.

167 thoughts on “Warm November Winding Down”

    1. Hey OS…I guess so much for when Alaska warms up we in NE turn cold, lol. Clearly not the case this time. Also, thanks for your earlier post on Roland Boucher. I was just a kid in the 60’s and come to think of it, my family rarely watched Channel 7 news until the early 70’s and beyond which is why I remember (Dr.) Fred Ward.

      I wasn’t around in the 1950’s but I thought I pretty much remembered most of the “old school” local mets at least by name.

  5. Winter comes late and spring comes early I really think this winter will be very disappointing for snow lovers, it appears a cool down comes for the beginning of dec but then showing signs of warming up again by mid to late dec

  6. Boston hit 67 degrees today and tomorrow’s record high is 69. If it wasn’t for the rain moving in later tomorrow, we would probably have a decent shot.

  7. Okay – I have been having troubles with my computer. But I guess it’s ok now. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. We spent the wknd. cleaning up our yard, too and we did some Christmas decorating, too. I also visited with a friend yesterday I hadn’t seen in awhile. The weather has been amazing. But it also has been weird. Kind of weird setting up for Christmas w/this unusual warm weather! Looks like we could get some downpours tomorrow night – maybe even some thunder! 🙂 Enjoy the rest of the evening!

  8. My wife is a snow hater and she’s always said snowing in dec is much worse than feb or Mar bc 1 it doesn’t stay long plus by late Feb she say springs right around the corner, the longer we go with no snow in the beginning of winter the shorter winter is and I thinks she’s right cause by mid Feb the sun is strong and it just feels different by then

  10. Again winter is coming folks stay patient. Stats from past can be broken as well. I have been hearing the mets talk all weekend about what warm novembers have done.
    Four out five the following winters came in below normal snowfall, but not all five. We can all agree the weather the last year has been off. Tornados in ma, record breaking snow last winter, earthquakes felt big time around here, the october snowstorm and now the record warmth. People all around are talking about where is winter, well on December 22nd it will be here. I am not writing off winter and I do believe we will have plenty of snow. The last few years snow has been coming at the end of December just like last year. I know I am repeating myself but I still say a plowable storm before christmas for all of us. Stay patient, enjoy the weird temps and be ready when mother nature delivers us old man winter. And say merry christmas to strangers this holiday season.

    2. John I agree as well and hi rainshine. I missed seeing you on here. Glad you had such a nice weekend and thanksgiving

    1. With all respect Philip that may not be the case. I would love that. snow for me is problems. But I just feel we will have plenty of storms. Be patient and let mother nature figure things out. Trust me philip you will get your snow.

  13. Based on trends, I think the first 60F day may be in the cards next Monday.

    The temp anomoly today at Logan is going to be about +16 to +18F. Tomorrow could be about +15F and Wednesday close to +10F above normal. I think Logan is going to finish higher than 5F above normal for November.

    That would be +3.5F for October and +5F for November. Got to think a big positive temp anomoly is coming in December.

    Arctic, on the other hand is very cold. I have a feeling that a very, very cold spring is coming in 2012 (Feb thru May)

    2. Repeating I know but just one storm in jan would be great. However if it’s warm well simply light a fire and sit on the beach.

  14. I remember Christmas day maybe 1964 that was the warmest anyone remembered in a along while. We were all in tshirts. I know there have been some since. I could never live in a warm climate. My poor husband. He is not a snow lover either

    1. I remember a Christmas in the early 80s that was in the 60s. I also remember one in that timeframe with an arctic blast that had temps below zero for highs.

    2. There was a very warm xmas eve I think within 10yrs. I remember during the day people were in t-shirts and running in shorts.

        1. The comment went into “moderation” because the email address was different than all the other messages. Probably just a typo.

    3. Most New Englanders have fled south, I was actually reading a book on how around 2 mil New Englanders have fled to the sunbelt ( Arizona, Texas, Florida, california since the 70’s and unfortunately been replaced with less educated people, alot of companies have to give big bonuses to new employees to get them to live hear, have a great day

  15. Pete Bouchard on his evening blog suggests that Dec. 7 (Pearl Harbor Day) will begin the regime change. No way am I buying into that date. As I mentioned in the earlier blog, this current pattern may last through the entire month of December.

    1. I have some ideas….

      For temps, some defined period of normal or below normal temps ( at least a period of 15 days ?)

      Or…..for snow, at least 2 snow events within a defined period. I say at least 2 snow events, because there can be a snow event within a mild pattern.

      1. Sounds good to me. Why below normal though and not normal and below. Wouldn’t normal be what is expected as opposed to what we are having? Just curious.

        So if temps started today at below normal and lasted two weeks, can I assume today would be the actual start (or date) of the pattern change.

  18. I agree what Tom said. At least a two week stretch of below normal temps with a trough in the east and a ridge out in the west along with a negative NAO and postivie PNA.

  19. I think one thing that has been consistent with the weather for about a year now are the extreme events we have experienced. 80″ of snow in 6 weeks, multiple tornadoes in New England, drought in Texas, over 2′ of snow in western mass before Halloween, snow in Arkansas, record warmth in new england So either the weather pattern is going to a more traquil pattern or maybe on with the same extremes. (We will see, time will tell, let’s see what the next run says)

    1. Its been an amazing year here in SNE weatherwise with January snowfall. the tornado outbreak in June, and the PreHalloween Noreaster.
      I know this is not weather related but aftershocks in parts of SNE from an earthquake in Virgina.

  20. Anyone know why the moths are out in full force again this year? This happened last year at the same time!! Omen maybe to what’s to come:)

    3. They are Winter Moths… They emerge in November and usually gone by January, after laying eggs in lower tree bark. I’ve heard you can break the cycle by wrapping the lower 6′ or so of your trees, where they lay their eggs.
      They hatch in the spring as little green caterpillers and feed until mid-June or so… A relatively new pest to New England, from Europe!
      TJA

  21. This feels like déjà vu from last year. The talk was about no snow. I know things are different this year but I think things are not worked yet for sure.

    1. That is a good point Hadi. If that NAO could shift to a negative phase then watch out otherwise winter is going to have a tough time getting going on the east coast or I should stay restarted after that Pre Halloween Noreaster.

  22. Matt Noyes has been hinting at a pattern change very soon with words, such as Next week transitions toward winter.
    Those teleconnections may suddenly flip on us…

    1. Very true….however, the NAO prediction as of late has been horrendous. About a week to 10 days ago, it was predicted to be neutral and it is currently more than 1 standard deviation above normal. It has been positive for 3 straight months…….I do agree that it will go negative again, but, until it happens, I wont believe any forecast that shows a negative NAO.

  23. I have a feeling a good amount of people are going to be caught off guard by a pattern change when it takes place.

  24. With the approach of the cold front later today, I think dewpoints climbing towards 60F later today are possible. I know this is boring for winter weather enthusiasts, but I do enjoy not having to freeze out at the car, etc….Have a good day all.

    2. Thank you. This looks great, however….

      1. The NAO is forecast to be positive
      2. The CPC has us above average in temperature on the 8-14 day outlook
      3. The latest GFS continues to show a persistent SE ridge, albeit with a few
      brief cold shots.

      So, what’s the real deal.

      I’m hoping TK can shed some more light on this.

      Many thanks

  26. long-range GFS still has persistent SE ridge.

    I noticed the moths too. Did I put the bug spray away too soon!

  27. I think today will be the last of the 60 degree weather, A week from today will be the last of the 50 degree weather. I am having my new roof installed end of this week and my house insulated on the 9th. Just in time for more seasonal temperatures.

  29. Did I miss something? I thought rain was to start tonight but am hearing rain on the skylight. With the clouds and lack of leaves on trees it sure looks like a November morning – it just doesn’t feel like one. And odd too that we are on warm side of the system that’s leaving the snow in the deep south.

  31. Great read from Matt Noyes…. Like TK said I think people are getting too comfortable with the way temps have been and before you know it we will all be shoveling snow:)

    1. Hadi,

      Yes, perhaps we are, however, I would like to see signs of a change.
      What am I missing because I currently don’t see them.

      1. AccuWeather is onto something. Note their long range forecast for Boston:

        Today 29Showers
        64° Lo 52°
        Hist. Avg
        47° Lo 34°

        30Showers
        59° Lo 41°
        Hist. Avg
        47° Lo 34°

        Dec 1Mostly Sunny
        51° Lo 39°
        Hist. Avg
        46° Lo 33°

        2Mostly Sunny
        52° Lo 36°
        Hist. Avg
        46° Lo 33°

        3Mostly Sunny
        46° Lo 35°
        Hist. Avg
        46° Lo 33°

        4Mostly Sunny
        52° Lo 42°
        Hist. Avg
        45° Lo 32°

        5Cloudy
        53° Lo 39°
        Hist. Avg
        45° Lo 32°

        6Rain
        44° Lo 25°
        Hist. Avg
        44° Lo 32°

        7Rain & Snow
        37° Lo 26°
        Hist. Avg
        44° Lo 31°

        8Flurries
        36° Lo 28°
        Hist. Avg
        44° Lo 31°

        9Rain & Snow
        48° Lo 32°
        Hist. Avg
        43° Lo 31°

        10Partly Sunny
        43° Lo 20°
        Hist. Avg
        43° Lo 30°

        11Sunny
        37° Lo 27°
        Hist. Avg
        43° Lo 30°

        12Cloudy
        38° Lo 28°
        Hist. Avg
        42° Lo 29°

        13Sunny
        36° Lo 24°
        Hist. Avg
        42° Lo 29° 14

        We shall see.

        1. I look at that everyday and it appears every morning they postpone the game another day it 2, what was a high for next weekend of 36 is now 52, so will have to c

      2. I think that’s the caveat, maybe we can’t see the change as well as WW, TK, MN can. For instance, look above and you can see TK discount the 00z gfs run. Why? He probably did it based on his experience. Also, I believed he noted that people won;t see this change coming. So maybe the models are saying one thing, which to the professionals, its wrong.

        1. I understand that. Very curious to know WHY???

          I re-read Matt Noyes’ post again. He really doesn’t say why either. He points to cold air pooled in Alaska and
          bascially says that it will eventually get here.

  33. The 2 maps that Matt Noyes showed, strong ridge in the Pacific with a weak ridge in the Southeast would be a very favorable set up for constant clippers to ripple on through New England, possibly intensifying greatly due to the weak Southeast ridging and a 50 degree ocean water.

  34. I had mentioned Rolan Boucher yesterday. I found this from Globe Abstracts:

    Roland J. Boucher, a longtime radio and television meteorologist, died of complications from cancer Friday in New England Baptist Hospital in Boston. He was 82.

    Mr. Boucher was best known as one of the first meteorologists in Boston certified by the American Meteorological Society. He could be seen nightly at 6 on Channel 7 and his daily forecast also could be heard on WKOX in Framingham for more than 35 years. He retired in 1986. During his years with the US Weather Bureau in Boston, he broadcast daily over WHDH radio.

    Mr. Boucher was involved in projects that ranged from the first weather satellite to forecasting techniques using Doppler radar.

    Link to an abstract of one of his works:

    http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA109805

  36. 12Z GFS is in. It shows a signifcant cool down from the 6th through about the 14th,
    with yet another warm up after that. The question is how long will that warm up last
    and will the cold shot really last that long???

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F29%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=372&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  37. I put a lot of faith in Matt Noyes. He is as good as they come IMO. During storm watch he is unbelievable in breaking things down and is very accurate.

  40. OS

    I was looking at the 12Z GFS and I actually see a chance for a couple inches on Tuesday night.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20111129%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_174_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=174&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=11%2F29%2F2011+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

  41. TK (Bloggers), I have been contacted by two individuals who would like to be invited to the blog. They do not post on the BZ Blog but read it daily. They have sent me a email from thier work email accounts so it I would think they are not one of the trolls. They can actual spell and produce complete and thoughtful sentences. LOL!

    So what do you think?

    1. It’s TK’s decision, but as long as they are not trolls, I am all for it.
      This is the most civil site I have ever seen. Besides, if we (TK) determines
      that anyone is a troll, TK has the capability of bouncing them.

      Go for it.

      Thanks

    3. I agree that it is TK’s decision but sure do like that everyone is asked – it’s all part of what makes this an incredible blog. I agree – go for it.

    1. Hi Old Salty.

      On both models, it seems like the (initial ?) low goes to our northwest, so, I just dont know if there would be much precip left once the cold air arrives….I will say that there actually looks like a cold day is coming the middle of next week.

      1. Pretty clear the low passes North and West, but based on GFS, there is a fair amount of moisture left on the backside. My question was whether or not, whatever moisture was left, would the Euro have it changing over to snow more rapidly than the GFS. Imo, yes. That is assuming there was anything to changeover, of course.

        1. Sounds good…..I wonder why sometimes there’s more moisture that occurs behind a cold front, as opposed to ahead of it. Maybe a trailing disturbance riding up the coast.

          1. Lift in the atmosphere left behind the departing
            system? Look at this 500MB chart for 174 hours:

            http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F29%2F2011+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=174&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

            I don’t know if that explains it or not.

  43. Great site. Glad to participate.

    The seemingly bizarre thing about the recent warm spell is its persistence. I do remember November 1975. It was very warm. But, as I recall there was more oscillation in temperatures (I was a young lad then, so my memory could be playing tricks on me). Usually, by mid to late November and early December warm spells are followed by sharp cold fronts. And we have not experienced any of that yet. Nor will we be experiencing that during the next week or so. Bloggers have pointed out warm Christmases, and I can remember several (1986, for instance), but they were always preceded or followed by arctic air blasts. In any of the models, does anyone see an arctic air blast coming any time soon? Also, and pardon my random thoughts here, has anyone noticed how far apart the isotherms are in our vicinity. Right now, areas of 30-40 degree maximum temperatures extend from the Canadian border to well north of Quebec City (it’s almost shockingly warm in the Laurentide mountains); areas of 40-50 degrees go from the border to Central Maine, and so on and so forth. To me this means that there is very little cold air to drag down once a Low passes through our region. A much more typical scenario (say, Christmas 1986) is to see a Low traverse through the interior giving us a mild day or two (60’ish) followed by a genuine cold front. The weather map would then indicate isotherms that are very close together, reflected in very significant temperature differences within a 50-100 mile span.

    1. Welcome Joshua – in addition to the fact that I enjoyed reading your comments I always love it when someone can remember back to the 1970s 🙂 I feel a little less old!!!

  44. Yesterday at Logan averaged 19F !!! above average for the date and raised the departure from normal to +4.9F for November. As best as I can tell, today’s Logan hi/lo so far are 66F and 53F. Tomorrow should be about 8 to 10F above normal, so, I’m going to guess that Logan ends up at +5.4F for November…..Today is the 13th day of November with highs of 60F or greater at Logan.

    1. Truly amazing! A pretty warm October and November.
      Under ordinary circumstances, one would think it would portend
      a warmer Winter??? Perhaps we are not looking at ordinary circumstances this year.

  45. WOW!!!!! Look at this NEW CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook, hot off the presses:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

    What is going on here? It’s going to get colder. No…wait a minute, it’s going to stay warm. Not it’s going to get colder. NOPE, I was kidding, it’s going to stay warm.

    Really, does anyone know for sure? I don’t think so.

    Clearly the CPC sees something.

    This is driving me nuts. This is about 4 or 5 days in a row where the CPC
    outlook has flip-flopped.

    Thoughts?

  46. the pattern is locked in milder for now. It will get colder but only becasue average highs are getting lower not from a lasting blast from jack frost. just think how shocking it’ll feel when it finally does come in. It’ll go from mild 30’s and 40’s to highs in the teens like in a day. (sometime in January)

  47. Hey Coastal…I took the liberty to invite Smm77 to join us as well. I do not believe he is a troll. You should be getting an e-mail request soon if not received it already.

    1. One more thing Coastal…if I happen to see WW’s posts, I would like to invite him over here and post your e-mail address…assuming the WBZ blog will “allow” me to, of course. LOL. 🙂

  48. What some are forgetting here is that the cold air is locked up in “western” Canada and Alaska. If this cold were to suddenly push southward tomorrow, by the time it travels towards the east coast, it would be greatly modified and probably give us near normal temps at best and any storm coming towards us would only bring warmth from the south with it and bring us mostly rain. To get real cold & snowy we need cold air more from southern & “eastern” Canada.

    One of Joshua’s recent posts hinted at this, assuming I understood it correctly.

  49. I see temps are forecasted to warm up in Fairbanks — they will actually being seeing positive #s for awhile. A sign of things to coming our way?

    1. The CPC (GFS), shows Alaska warming up and much of the western & central CONUS turning colder, but the northeast remains mild.

  51. There’s high chances of very little snow before Christmas, other than a 3-5 day colder shot alotta of models show a warmup through christmas

  52. Hi everyone. First time checking in today. Another springlike day in fall today. Still no real cold air heading our way as indicated by the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook.

  54. Hmmmm from NWS this afternoon

    THE 00Z/29 ECMWF DEVELOPED A COASTAL LOW EARLY NEXT
    WEEK HOWEVER THE NEW 12Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF THIS SOLUTION AND HAS
    COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION…DEVELOPING A FRONTAL
    WAVE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY MUCH MORE OTHER THAN
    EARLY NEXT WEEK BEARS WATCHING.

    SENSIBLE WEATHER…

    THURSDAY AND FRIDAY…
    COOLER AND BRISK DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S…BUT A MODEST NNW

  56. Like I said before Matt Noyes sees something that none of us are seeing and sorry but I have faith in more then most.

  57. The CPC is taking a few warm days next week into consideration for the 8-14 day. As we approach this weekend, we should have some blue around our area. I wouldn’t mind some snow next week.

    1. I wouldn’t hold my breath on any snow next week…or anytime next month for that matter. That SE ridge is determined to hold tight.

  59. CPC is an average so 1-2 way above normal days can skew a number big time. It’s not something to really gage an accurate temp in again IMO.

    1. Haha 🙂 no, I don’t see any amounts worth even discussing, I don’t even see accumulating snow through Christmas

      1. With all respect charlie I bet we get snow here before christmas, it has been the patern the last few years.

          1. Good to see you posting. I of course have no proof, but I just think It is. And I do not think snowfall will be below normal this year. This is coming from the guy who would be happy with no snow.

    2. True Hadi. I dont think sustained cold or big snows are due anytime soon. II’ll guess that December will avg a few degrees above normal overall.

  64. TK can you on occasion post a more technical analysis of the upcoming pattersn, etc…as we get into winter?

    1. Hadi, he hasn’t really posted much about the pattern ahead, details at least.. I think he is not sure exactly where the pattern will transition to. His silence says a lot imo.

      1. He’s probably a little busy, and the last few posts of his were saying that this pattern change may happen a lot sooner than most people are expecting.

    1. Thank you!! We will I honestly believe that. Winter folks is knocking at the door just wait and see. Buy the time it is winter on 12/22 it will feel like it and look like it.

      1. I did not waste my time this past weekend securing my 8 airblowns for the worst conditions while they are out till New Years. They will like every year see some rough weather.

  66. To me lets see where we are in terms of snowfall at the end of January before we make any judgements about the winter. Its going to snow its given just like 3 H weather in the summer.

  67. Even though the weather pattern is a mild one if the ingredients come together like they did for the Pre Halloween Noreaster you could get a good amount of snow.

  68. Please be patient if you are new and awaiting approval. I’ll be sitting down to catch up on admin and the blog around 11PM. Been very busy the past few days helping my mom decorate for Christmas and driving my parents to and from appointments. My dad is battling a bit of pneumonia. He’ll be ok though. Just a bit of a rough go for him.

    Talk to you all very shortly!

    1. TK, I hope your dad gets well soon especially in time for Christmas! 🙂

      I also look forward to the new additions to our group here. 🙂

    2. TK – I hope your dad is better quickly – as others have said – family always first and helping moms and dads with Christmas decorations is one of those memories that can never be replaced.

  70. We need your crystal ball TK. We have a lot of different opinions in what might happen:) which is great!!! That’s why I love the blog!!

  72. It appears most of the rain tonight will go west of 495, the rest of us in eastern mass will only get periods of showers between 11-4am, Worcester westward could get 1-2 inches of rain

  73. Too bad that was not snow because that area with the 1-2 inches of rain would have 10-20 level 3 snow event.

  75. Joshua, you are now approved so your comment should be visible. It appears somewhere above. Welcome to the blog and thanks for your patience!

  76. Hello TK and all – I am one of the two people who contacted Coastal earlier today about my interest in joining this blog. I am an avid winter weather enthusiast and enjoyed reading many of your posts on the WBZ blog the past two seasons although I rarely posted myself. Hopefully will get to post a bit more here and hopefully we’ll start transitioning into a more wintery weather pattern soon. Record high of 66 here in CT at Bradley again today…this is getting old!

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