Warm Pattern Slowly Breaking Down

117 Comments

12:08AM

Yes, it is happening, in stages. Instead of re-explaining it, read the post by Matt Noyes which some bloggers have linked in recent updates.

For the more immediate future… Low pressure is tracking north northeastward, west of New England, sending a band of moderate to heavy rain into an unseasonably warm and humid late November air mass as the final day of the month begins. Dry air behind a cold front will put an end to the rain by dawn in most of eastern MA. It will not turn that cool behind the initial front. A secondary front or trough will pass by tonight from the west, with some clouds, and introduce slightly colder air for the first few days of December. This will be reinforced by another cold front passing by on Friday evening. This front will have little weather with it, just a few clouds.

We do warm up by Sunday and Monday ahead of the next storm system, but this time not to the levels we just saw. Another shot of chilly air arrives toward the middle of next week and this one may contain some snowflakes, though no big storm is seen at this time.

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Showers, with an area of moderate to heavy rain and possible thunder moving through from west to east especially between 1:30AM & dawn. Mild and humid. Low 55-60. Wind S 10-15 MPH gusting to 20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds and showers may linger at the coast and over eastern Essex County early in the morning otherwise sun becoming dominant with just some passing clouds. Temperature holding 55-60 much of the day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy early, then clearing. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 42-47. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 48.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 42.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 55.

MONDAY: Chance of rain showers. Low 39. High 51.

TUESDAY: Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 35. High 42.

117 thoughts on “Warm Pattern Slowly Breaking Down”

  1. Thanks for the update TK !!

    For November 2011, the (14th) 60F day at Logan occurred just after midnight, with a reading of 63F. Many locations rose into the low to mid 60s.

    In the theme of searching for winter’s cold air arrival into New England, it is not to be found on this morning’s 0z GFS. I think it backs off on forming any high latitude blocking in northeast Canada/Greenland.

    Happy last day of meteorological autumn all !!

  2. We should have four new people to the blog. Joshua, Mark, Jane and Scott. They have come over from BZ, Joshua has been posting recently over at BZ but the others general enjoy reading. I think they may choose to post more often over here because of the wonderful people this blog has.

    Welcome Aboard!

    1. Thank you for allowing me to join this blog. I have missed reading all of your posts and looking forward to contributing some of my own.

  3. Something tells me that both the EURO and GFS are in a funk with this transitional pattern, and it’s only worse when I take a look at their long range configurations.
    We have a fairly good chance at seeing at least some snow flakes next week.

  4. Good morning everyone, I had a mosquito yes a mosquito flying around my bedroom last night, it was so annoying that at 4am I had to turn on the lights and wait 30 min to find it, let me tell ya it’s the most annoying buzzing sound when ur sleeping, thanks for the update tk

  5. Hmm…let me see:

    1. The NAO index is NOT going Negative
    2. The CPC’s 8-14 day temperature outlook has us way above average
    3. The latest GFS out to 16 days, still shows an overall mild pattern.

    Add it all up, and we’re looking at a persistent mild pattern (not as mild as it has been, but then we will be in December) at least through mid December. We’ll see after that.

  6. Next week late on the 6th and early on the 7th, looked very interesting for 2 runs
    of the GFS, but now doesn’t look so interesting. I see some snow, but not much at all.

  7. AccuWeather Forecast for Boston Next 14 days. Looks like they have a change in the pattern somewhere around the 10th-11th of the month:

    Today 30Mostly Cloudy
    57° Lo 39°
    Hist. Avg
    47° Lo 34°

    Dec 1Mostly Sunny
    50° Lo 36°
    Hist. Avg
    46° Lo 33°

    2Mostly Sunny
    47° Lo 36°
    Hist. Avg
    46° Lo 33°

    3Mostly Sunny
    46° Lo 38°
    Hist. Avg
    46° Lo 33°

    4Mostly Sunny
    52° Lo 44°
    Hist. Avg
    45° Lo 32°

    5Mostly Cloudy
    58° Lo 45°
    Hist. Avg
    45° Lo 32°

    6Rain
    56° Lo 37°
    Hist. Avg
    44° Lo 32°

    7Showers
    41° Lo 26°
    Hist. Avg
    44° Lo 31°

    8Freezing Rain
    51° Lo 34°
    Hist. Avg
    44° Lo 31°

    9Showers
    48° Lo 36°
    Hist. Avg
    43° Lo 31°

    10Partly Sunny
    43° Lo 20°
    Hist. Avg
    43° Lo 30°

    11Sunny
    37° Lo 27°
    Hist. Avg
    43° Lo 30°

    12Cloudy
    38° Lo 28°
    Hist. Avg
    42° Lo 29°

    13Sunny
    36° Lo 24°
    Hist. Avg
    42° Lo 29°

    14Cloudy
    36° Lo 24°
    Hist. Avg
    42° Lo 29°

  8. Thanks, Tk for the update. Hope your father is feeling better.

    I heard the rain last night – at one point there were some pretty good gusts of wind.

    Charlie – not surprised to hear that there are still mosquitoes about. Last night felt very humid. I, too have noticed more moths about.

    Today looks and feels a little more like autumn. Changeable sky is rather pretty. Have a great day all!

  9. I wonder if we will have a early spring like the last 2 yrs, outa the last 2 years march has been featured with little snow and can remember my lawn guy applying a lime in mid March bc it was mild

      1. Yup. We’ll keep watching it.

        I would really like to know what TK and Matt Noyes see that
        makes them think a change is coming.

        Perhaps after mid-month????

  11. If the 0z of the Euro is right that is another rain producer for a good chunk of SNE as the low comes right at us. Maybe far western areas see some wintry precipitation.
    As I said last night we will see some wintry precipitation during December unlike November.

    1. Agreed, however, if it is correct, there may be more backside snow than
      indicated by the GFS. We shall see.

      Btw, NWS gives no hint of snow with this event:

      MONDAY AND TUESDAY…
      CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
      THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG PIECE OF NORTHERN
      STREAM ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT
      LAKES…RESULTING IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING. NOT MUCH COLD
      AIR IN PLACE AND WITH A +NAO…ODDS FAVOR MAINLY A RAIN EVENT.
      TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN…BUT LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
      HIGHEST LATER MON INTO TUE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
      RETURN FOR AT LEAST A TIME AS MILDER AIR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE
      APPROACHING SYSTEM.

  12. temps will eventually revert to the mean. we’ll shiver and pay crippling heating bills long before the arrival of Spring which is sometimes in June around these parts!

  13. In all of the years of record keeping, Boston has only once recorded above normal snowfall when November temps were above normal. The one exception was in 1975 when Boston received 46.6″= 1975-76 and the only reason was that there was a big snowstorm a few days before Christmas. Take away that one storm, and the snowfall total for that winter would have been well below normal. I remember it well. Also IIRC we didn’t have another white Christmas for years thereafter.

    1. Something to be said for that….

      Let us hope that circumstances are different this year and that we can ring up another above normal snowfall after a warm November.

      Hey, what about when Both October and November were way above average?
      Any stats on that?

      Thanks

  14. I believe that translates into below normal snowfall when both October and November have above normal temps. If I am a betting person and I am not I would bet on below normal snowfall.

    1. JJ,
      I agree, normally that is the case. The question is: Will it be applicable
      this year? Every year is different. Odds certainly would favor below average
      snowfall. Will we buck the odds this year? Time will tell.

  15. If you look back at our intense winter’s it was when October and November temps averaged below normal 95-96 02-03 as examples. Will see what happens hear but I think one thing is clear this winter will not be as bad as last winter.

    1. JJ, I honestly don’t think so. Everything seems to always revert to a warmer
      solution. That persistent SE ridge doesn’t want to go away. Cold air, if any, seems to want to dive out West. A recipe for above average temperatures here and clearly below average snow (read that NONE at all). Lol.

      At least we are enjoying yet another beautiful day! 11AM Boston temp: 54
      NICE!

  18. Once these weather patterns lock they are tough to break. Look at the ridge that sat over Texas and Oklahoma for most of the summer with all those consecutive 100 degree days.

    1. Indeed. We’ll see what happens after mid-month. So far, not looking good.
      But then again, we’re all saving money on our heating bills!!

  19. There appears to be a high pressure cell consistently anchored off the coast of British Columbia for the entire 12z gfs run.

  20. Look at this 12Z GFS 1000-500MB chart loop for 16 Days. Notice the persistent
    SE ridge. The consistent RED lines, indicating warming weather either over us
    or just to the South of us. This pattern just does not want to break down.

    So IF it is beginning to break down, it is not apparent at the moment.

    Looks like more of the same to me.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F30%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  21. Great site. I tried posting yesterday but I’m not sure if my comment actually posted.

    In any case, I’m still not seeing winter’s arrival in these parts for at least 2-3 more weeks, and making predictions beyond that is very tricky. The dearth of cold air in our vicinity is truly astounding. To our north, a town like Presque Isle, Maine is seeing record temperatures on an almost daily basis (61 today!). Presque Isle has only had 1 night of temperatures in the teens thus far this `winter.’ Frankly, that’s shocking. I’m much less surprised by balmy days around Boston than I am exceptionally mild days in places that just do not see 60 degrees for 5-month periods ever. Also, there is no sign of the Greenlandic block. In fact, looking at forecasts for the inhabitable parts of Greenland we see 5-10 degrees above-normal temperatures – e.g., in the capital Godthab (Nuuk), around 30 during the day. In addition, snow and stormy weather is forecast every day for the next 14. This suggests that Lows, which normally by now get shunted south by at least minimal blocking are not encountering any at all.

  23. That weak la Nina is responsible for the SE ridging. Until the snow pack builds in eastern Canada, any air that comes our way will moderate. Give it time, once that snow pack builds, the cold air will be able to get here. It’s not even December yet, we need patience.

    1. You’re right, Scott. It is November 30th, so we all need to be patient. The weather dynamics may change soon. I’m a little impatient as winter is something I look forward to. Nothing beats either a snowstorm or a refreshingly cold and sunny, 20 degree day.

  24. Hello all – I attempted to post late last night but did so on the previous blog and my comment wasn’t accepted till this AM. Just wanted to say that I am one of the two people who contacted Coastal yesterday about my interest in joining this blog. I am an avid winter weather enthusiast having grown up in Upstate NY (living now in CT). I enjoyed reading many of your posts on the WBZ blog the past two seasons although I rarely posted myself. This is a great site – hopefully will get to post a bit more here and hopefully we’ll start transitioning into a more wintery weather pattern soon so we have something more exciting to talk about!

  25. I really believe we will be in for a milder than normal winter, there will be snow events here and there but in the end alot of snow lovers like myself are going to be very disappointed, I agree with jj if I were a betting man I’d bet below the average snowfall of 35-45 inches depending on where u live

    1. Charlie,

      You could be correct, however, it may be a tad bit too early to say just yet.
      If the pattern doesn’t change or show obvious signs of changing by Mid-month or shortly thereafter, then I am inclined to totally agree with you.

    1. Amsterdam, which is about 25 miles NW of Albany. A bit too far away to get any big lake effect snows, but we had some real memorable noreasters when I was growing up there.

  28. The biggest factor in the end to me will be the NAO which is near impossible to predict more then 7 days out. It’s has always been the key to SNE winter storms.

    1. Hi Hadi,

      Well, it certainly is showing no signs of tanking just yet. We’ll have to keep
      monitoring it. Perhaps just about when we are to give up, it will flip!

  29. Welcome new peeps.

    I’m interested to see now how long it takes for the ponds and lakes to freeze over, especially on coastal plain. Could we make new years with open water?

  31. Anyone live near a pond or lake?…we could have vicki put together another contestant list if she’s up to it.

    what could the parameters be?

    1. Yes, I have a Deep glacial kettle pond very near the house, Jamaica Pond.
      Although it might not be a good test, as it always lags behind other bodies of
      water, due to it’s depth and also it’s openess to continual winds.

    2. I’m up to it – let me know what the parameters are and I’ll set it up.

      Mark and Joshua, we are currently guessing the date when the weather pattern will change to winter – I just record the dates and will rely on someone with more knowledge to explain the parameters.

      I’ll watch for your guesses if you want to play and will acknowledge that I have recorded them. If I don’t tell you I’ve seen your guess, feel free to nudge me again until I do 🙂

      1. oops – we are also guessing snow totals for the season at Logan – so one date and one total if you want to play

  32. Well, we could use it if noone else comes in with one. What would you say, completely covered with about an inch of ice? I’m not saying get on it with a pick-up but 1″ can be guesstimated.

  33. QBO (Quasi-biennial oscillation)

    Perhaps there is some hope? I found this:

    The QBO is currently reversing to a negative or easterly phase as we head into late fall and winter. The easterly phase of the QBO is seen to be more favorable for -AO and blocking schemes. The eastern momentum of the -QBO can weaken the strength of the polar vortex and lead to SSW events over the poles.

  34. Alright O.S. I’ll start the list. I’m going to be in Conway over the weekend so loggin in might be tough but if you don’t mind marking anyone else down, we can verify next week if more people come in.

    I’m down for January 13th. the depth of the water concerns me….could be later but I’m in for the 13th.

    1. That was some read. Thank you for the link.

      Interesting to note that the SSTs are high, indicating possibly more
      coastal storms.

      Could be an interesting winter.

      1. Current Boston Temp: 55

        Boston Bouy: 49
        Stellwagon Bouy: 50

        Still a few Degrees above average. The water temperature will
        only ever so slowly drop until we get some genuinely cold weather and then it will respond a little more quickly.

  39. It will be interesting to see what the 12z Euro has to say when it comes out in a little while.
    Welcome to the new bloggers and I look forward to hearing your thoughts on the weather.

    1. Hmmm….

      It develops a system SLOWER than the other models and yet farther to
      the East. Note this 12Z Euro at 168 hours or 12Z on 12/8:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&hh=192&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=168&fixhh=1

      Whatever is going on with the atmosphere, these models appear to be having a tough time of it. I think this model, unless totally out to lunch, indicates
      that the situation next week may be volatile and needs to be watched at the
      very least.

    1. retrac I’ll keep track until I hear from you – if you want to keep the list I’ll turn over what I have to you – does that work?? I am more than happy to share in the fun 🙂 I got rainshine’s 1/18

    2. one inch of ice, eh ? Well, I guess since I’ve been beating the warm weather drum, I’ll say it doesnt happen this year……So, I’ll say January 8th, 2013.

      2. are you really going with it doesn’t happen Tom??

        I thought Longshot was kidding with his 3″ snow total and he wasn’t so I never know 🙂

  41. vicki,

    it’d be great if you kept the list since you have the one for snow too.

    Maybe when we get to spring, we can do ice out too! (we need some action with the weather being so boring of late)

    so far I have me and old salty.

    me-Jan 13
    o.s.-Jan 20

    1. sure retrac I am more than happy – I just keep copying the previous list so I have all names and it’s all set up so it makes it simple.

      I have you and OS and rainshine and me

  44. So it seems mid-late next week’s cold shot won’t be as cold as previously thought, but it will be the thing that helps us transition into a colder pattern.
    I would not look into the long range GFS at this time, it’s showing quite a bit of inconsistency. You could add in the EURO as well. Inconsistency in the models only tells you that we are heading into a new pattern very soon.

    1. Scott, would you agree that the model runs of the gfs and euro should be taken with a grain of salt because that are flip flopping? Does this generally happen during pattern change? I feel as of now the mid December date of a pattern change maybe way off, but you never know!

      1. I am taking them with a grain of salt, almost laughing at how ridiculous some of the runs are.
        Considering my lack of experience when it comes to model viewing, I’m not sure how well the models react to pattern changes, but I think they can have issues. TK would know that.
        I think the models want to keep this pattern in place, but since the QBO is reversing it’s phase, there is no way this pattern can hold. I don’t think the models see that yet.

        1. If you are correct, then we’ll wake up one morning and look at the 06Z GFS and be in a state of shock!!!! LOL

  45. For Joshua and Mark – these are the totals everyone has given for snow totals this year for Logan

    Philip 53.00
    JimmyJames 43.00
    Vicki 38.00
    Rainshine 30.00
    Tom 27.00
    Coastal 79.00
    John 48.00
    Old Salty 60.00
    Charlie 23.90
    Scott 84.00
    Merlin 67.00
    retrac 29.00
    Hadi 82.00
    Longshot 3.00
    Tjammer 55.00
    TK 57.00

    1. And these are the dates for the weather pattern to change – for everyone else there are a lot of names missing on here – did I miss you or do you want to guess now???

      Philip 12/19
      JimmyJames 12/8
      Vicki 12/9
      Rainshine 12/11
      Tom 1/29
      John 12/10
      Old Salty 1/2
      Scott 12/5
      Hadi 12/9

    2. Gotta love Scott and Hadi’s enthusiasm but I don’t think a repeat is in the cards this year..I will go with 58.4 inches (to be exact!)

      1. Vickie, what are we saying constitutes the “pattern change” – return to seasonably cold temperatures for more than a few days, permanent breakdown of the ridge in the east, etc? I think this pattern change is going to happen kind of gradually over the next 2-3 weeks..

    1. He’s feeling pretty lousy but it’ll take a couple days for the medicine they gave him to really kick in.

  47. Based on today’s model runs, I can only imagine the CPC long range temp outlooks will show above normal temps in the northeast corrider even more emphatically today, as compared to yesterday.

      1. Yes…..Almost like the pattern, instead of breaking down, reloads to a ridge in far most western Alaska, a full latitude trof in eastern Alaska, southward to include the western half of the USA and an east coast ridge.

        1. How true. And if there is any cold air to come down, it comes down out west and if it ever migrates Eastward, it would be so modified as to be non-existent. lol

  48. 15 day forecast from Custom Weather, whoever they are. Where did the cold go?

    My Location: Boston – Logan International Airport, MA

    15-Day Forecast [Updated: Nov 30 2011 / 01:22 PM EST ]

    Day High Temp. Low Temp. Wind Speed/Dir. Humidity Comfort Level UV Index Precip. Probability 24hr. Precip. Total
    Wed, Nov 30
    Partly sunny. Cool. 59°F 40°F 14 mph / SW 53% 54°F Minimal 28%
    Thu, Dec 1
    Mostly sunny. Cool. 50°F 41°F 9 mph / N 46% 37°F Minimal 7%
    Fri, Dec 2
    More sun than clouds. Cool. 47°F 35°F 9 mph / NNW 63% 36°F Minimal 12%
    Sat, Dec 3
    Scattered clouds. Cool. 47°F 37°F 10 mph / S 63% 36°F Minimal 16%
    Sun, Dec 4
    A mixture of sun and clouds. Cool. 52°F 38°F 10 mph / SW 74% 42°F Minimal 19%
    Mon, Dec 5
    Cloudy. Cool. 58°F 44°F 11 mph / SSW 80% 48°F Minimal 34%
    Tue, Dec 6
    Light rain. Overcast. Cool. 56°F 45°F 13 mph / W 66% 44°F Minimal 60% 0.20″
    Wed, Dec 7
    Sunny. Cool. 43°F 34°F 18 mph / W 54% 35°F Minimal 0%
    Thu, Dec 8
    Sunny. Cool. 46°F 35°F 7 mph / SW 53% 42°F Minimal 0%
    Fri, Dec 9
    Rain late. Mostly cloudy. Cool. 48°F 37°F 29 mph / WNW 65% 40°F Minimal 89% 0.46″
    Sat, Dec 10
    Sunny. Chilly. 40°F 24°F 32 mph / NW 56% 28°F Minimal 10%
    Sun, Dec 11
    More sun than clouds. Cool. 46°F 28°F 26 mph / SSW 60% 37°F Minimal 10%
    Mon, Dec 12
    Passing showers. Cloudy. Cool. 50°F 40°F 10 mph / NE 84% 46°F Minimal 77% 0.35″
    Tue, Dec 13
    Light rain. Scattered clouds. Cool. 49°F 36°F 14 mph / NNE 81% 44°F Minimal 45% 0.12″
    Wed, Dec 14
    Rain early. More sun than clouds. Cool. 51°F 41°F 20 mph / WSW 77% 45°F Minimal 100% 0.64

    1. Forget the cold. I’m just thrilled to pieces they can tell me the wind is going to be 20 MPH out of the WSW on December 14. And since the rain will be over early that day I think I may do some kite flying after work. 😉

      1. LMAO!!!

        You are too funny! But I hear you. A little over the top, wasn’t it???

        Seriously, I am hoping you can post more of your thoughts on
        the pattern change.

        Many thanks

        1. Assessing it now, and I can tell you that we won’t be in a furnace the entire month of December. And yes in case you hadn’t noticed, I tend to use sarcasm and cynicism to my advantage when making my thoughts public. I’m no Andy Rooney, but I liked his style.

  49. Everything that comes out keeps getting worse and worse.
    Where is this change everyone has been discussing? I sure don’t see it yet.
    IF it is coming it will be after mid-month sometime. When?? Who knows.

  50. My guess for the regime change is wrong.
    CPC outlook typical weak La Nina with warmth in the east thanks to southeast ridge and trough in the west.

  52. Warm regime continuing or not, we may need to watch for a mix/snow threat late next week with high pressure N & low pressure developing over the SE US.

      1. Euro sets up the chance. Euro is useable again after some instability, which was expected entering a transitional pattern. And yes we are in fact in transition. If you compare the U.A., we are not in the same setup as we had been in Oct and the first half of Nov. Only the same overall result.

        1. Thank you.

          Please excuse my ignorance. I’ll probably feel silly when I find out, but what is U.A.?? Did you hit the A, when you meant to hit the S? Should that read U.S.?

          Many thanks again.

  55. Mark my enthusiasm clearly is ahead of my brain when I said that. I still am sticking with above average but if I had to do it over I would not be there:)

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