Mild Into Mid December?

131 Comments

8:18PM

The Euro says: “Not yet!”

The pattern is slow to change. The atmosphere has been defiant of well-thought-out prognostications and stubborn to rearrange itself. I cannot ignore the fact the European model (ECMWF), since it has gotten itself back on track, is forecasting not a great deal of change for at least another week or so, in the overall very mild pattern with only brief cold shots. I have to go with it for now…

For the next several days, the weather players will be: A weak cold front moves through New England Friday with some clouds but no widespread precipitation (just some mountain snow flurries and squalls). A shot of chilly air will follow on Saturday, but quick on its heels will be the next warm-up, slated for Sunday and the first half of next week as a southwesterly to southerly flow again takes hold of New England ahead of a slow-moving frontal system.

Forecast details for the Boston Area…

TONIGHT: Under a clear sky with a light NW wind, lows drop to near 20 in deeper valleys to the lower 30s near the coast.

FRIDAY: A sunny morning then varying amounts of clouds during the afternoon hours. After a cold start the high reaches 50 in most areas. Wind shifting to SW up to 15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouds exit early, the rest of the night is left clear and turns cold again. Low in the upper 20s except lower 30s urban areas and immediate coast. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH early then diminishing to around 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine dominates with a chill in the air. High right around 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Calm. Cold. Low from 20 inland valleys to 30 at the sea shore.

SUNDAY: Sunshine filtered through variable high cloudiness. High warms back to 50+. Wind S to SW around 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Low 44. High 58.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Low 46. High 54.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Numerous rain showers. Low 44. High 50.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Early high 44. Late night low 30.

131 thoughts on “Mild Into Mid December?”

        1. Yes, I believe SST and you were on the blog when I arrived. You had to explain to me why my comment was in moderation. LOL

  5. TK glad your dad is on the mend. And sorry your son is not well

    1954 is the year of the Lionel my brother had. We played with that train for hours and it still works also. His son has it now. My husband has a Marklin that took up two ping pong tables we set it up for our son but it’s in the attic now for his kids.

    Great memories you brought back. Thank you. Oddly I can still smell the Lionel train. And I know that sounds weird but it did have a special smell as it roared around the tracks

    1. I LOVE the smell of Lionel. It almost sounds like an advertisement. But I know exactly what you mean. And ours had those little “pills” you’d put in the smoke stack and it would make real smoke while it huffed around the track… It’s amazing how well the train still works. The transformer is like a dinosaur. Love it.

      1. Had one myself in 1954. I wanted SNOW on the tracks, so
        I sprinkled my Mom’s Tide detergent all over the tracks and
        croaked the set.

        1. LOL…. 🙂

          Sorry OS, I imagine you were devastated at the time. I loved model trains too when I was a kid.

        2. OS I’ve been laughing for a good ten minutes – I know you were sad but what a GREAT story and somehow I can see you being curious and innovative enough to do something like that

          1. I was deastated for sure, but I wanted that
            snow!!! It must have damaged the electric motor in the engine. Oh well, I enjoyed the train
            set while I could.

      2. TK, IIRC there was also a “liquid” that could produce the smoke as well. I don’t know what the ingrediants were though.

      3. I remember the pills and the liquid. It is funny how smells stay with you and trigger memories. Where are electric train sets and pogo sticks and the games like hopscotch and mother may I – the kids today have no idea what they are missing. Eeeee gads I sound old.

    1. Yawn…Interesting that even though Alaska is now warm, we are still as well. The cold has shifted due south to the Rockies with little or no eastward movement toward us. 🙁

  7. Thanks TK for the update. This reminds me of last year when we were all wondering when the snow would fall. Hopefully winter will kick in so we have a White Christmas.

  8. I don’t buy at all what the long range 0z GFS is selling this morning. I think, especially at the end of its run, its cold air push into the northeast is dependent on high latitude blocking around or just east of Greenland. I just wont believe any forecast of high latitude blocking. During this 3 + month period of mostly +NAO, the long range forecast has been poor and since November 20th or so, it has been laughable. (charts 2 thru 4).

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

  11. It is forecasted to go NEGATIVE. That does not mean it will. Please note:
    There are 11 ensemble members and 7 out 11 take it Negative.
    Would like to see ALL 11 members go negative. So although this forecast is a huge
    improvement, there is still some doubt as to what will happen.

    1. I dunno. Joe Joyce posted a link to it last year on the BZ blog.
      It was juicy, so perhaps he was just teasing us and didn’t place any stock in it?

      I think it is better than the NOGAPS, but what do I know.

      I usually look at it every day and from what I have seen, it has NOT been
      out to lunch.(Of course except this time probably! Lol)

      So we shall see.

  18. I think we can all agree that the tranquil weather we’re experiencing is about to end, within a few days, that is. I do think the systems that will be pushing through New England will bring much-needed snow to the Northern mountains, and behind the systems just enough cold air to allow for some snow-making. This said, I see very little chance of us (Boston area) getting anything more than cold rain. Moreover, I am not seeing a real push of consistent cold air towards New England, even 2-3 weeks down the road. As Philip pointed out, even Alaska is warming up, which means Arctic air is almost nowhere to be found on our side of the earth. There are quick bursts of Arctic air to our north in places like Churchill Falls, but the bursts last for 2 days followed by significant warm-ups. Thus far, the most consistent and persistent Arctic air is in Northern and Eastern Siberia.

    1. Certainly agree. Wouldn’t surprise me at all. I told my wife that yesterday or the day before. I told her it should be 60 or more and if it didn’t make 60, certainly well into the 50s.

    2. I think the only legit shot at 60 may be Monday. A good part of Wednesday may end up below 50 depending on front timing.

  20. To be sure. We are looking at a few more weeks at least perhaps longer, before
    we get any consistent cold.

    However, given that the forecast for the NAO is encouraging and the fact that we are
    entering the Easterly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation bodes well for colder air down the road. It is not a question of IF, it is rather a question of when.

  21. TK – glad your father is feeling better and I hope your son gets better soon and thanks for the update.

    Sorry I haven’t been chiming in much but it’s been kind of stressful around here lately as my husband has been trying to find the right health insurance. He was recently put on Medicare and has been trying to find the best plan as he takes a lot of medications, so we are both stressed out on that. Weather-wise, it’s nice to have some cold weather for a change. I notice a lot of Christmas decorations going up in the neighborhoods – nice. I know that the true Winter weather is going to come at some point. I know some mets. are saying we could be in for a winter that could be mild and w/o much snow. Can’t remember exactly who said that, but I think one or two of the tv mets. did say that. In any case, anything is possible. I do look at the links you guys put on the blog and I try to understand them – I’m not doing too well! 🙂 Anyway, have a good day everyone and if I don’t get a chance to post – have a great wknd.! Tomorrow night we are going to our first holiday party of the season – will be seeing some old friends – can hardly wait! 🙂

    1. Rainshine,

      You posted:

      Please don’t be afraid to ask any questions. We will certainly to our best to explain as well as we can and if we can’t I’m sure TK will.

      1. That’s weird? Didn’t show up. You had said:

        I do look at the links you guys put on the blog and I try to understand them – I’m not doing too well!

        1. I did not post ” Please don’t be afraid to ask any questions. We will certainly to our best to explain as well as we can and if we can’t I’m sure TK will.” Weird. I did say” I do look at the links you guys put on the blog and I try to understand them – I’m not doing too well!” Oh, well. Weird. Probably a result of the strange weather we have been having! 🙂

    2. Hi Rainshine – I worry that more and more of us will be facing the same problem you and your husband are with health insurance. I know nothing about Medicare and will have to know everything about it very soon as Mac and I are only a few years from retirement. I wish you both the best. We should not have to worry about these things when we already have health problems to worry about.

      As far as trying to read the links – I have a lot of trouble also am am learning but at a snails pace. And from some of your posts rainshine I think you are far ahead of me 🙂

      1. Thanks, Vicki. It’s been one those things that when you ask advice and get an answer, somebody else says, no, that’s not right. (re: health insurance).

        Regarding weather links – I have been trying a long time to figure them out. I stare at the models and on occasion can figure it out – but I have to read the posts people send and that helps. And I think that you are ahead of me in some of your posts! 🙂

        1. hahahahahaha – you must not have read the posts where John and I have resorted to gut instinct in our snow prediction before Christmas!

  22. After reading Henry Margusity’s morning blog, even he is giving up on any snow or real cold for the entire month of December east of the Appalacians all due to the +NAO and I definitely concur with his thinking at least for now.

    Technically, we did not have a white Christmas last year (snow began falling the next day on 12/26) and I would say we most certainly won’t have one this year as well through New Year’s Day. My bet is we don’t see the regime change now until close to mid-January (1/6 – 1/12?). OS and Tom had the right idea for January…just a matter of exact date.

    1. AccuWeather’s Brett Anderson also is calling for a mild December through New Year’s based on the latest Euro.

    2. The South shore had a white christmas. We got a good dumping the monday before christmas, this was mentioned in my post on December snow.

  24. Vicki, hate to sound demanding but could you possibly post the snow forecast amounts in ascending or descending order and the “freeze dates” in chronological order? I don’t think I even chose a date yet. (Or maybe I did.)

    Hey don’t forget to announce the end of November snow forecast leaderboard! :):)

    2. snow dates as requested

      Longshot 3.00
      Charlie 23.90
      Tom 27.00
      retrac 29.00
      Rainshine 30.00
      Vicki 38.00
      JimmyJames 43.00
      John 48.00
      Philip 53.00
      Tjammer 55.00
      TK 57.00
      Mark 58.40
      Old Salty 60.00
      Merlin 67.00
      Coastal 79.00
      Hadi 82.00
      Scott 84.00

      1. and ice over dates

        John 12/15/2011
        Scott 12/20/2011
        Coastal 12/23/2011
        Mark 12/27/2011
        JimmyJames 1/2/2012
        Philip 1/6/2012
        Hadi 1/7/2012
        Rainshine 1/18/2012
        Old Salty 1/20/2012
        Vicki 1/29/2012
        Retrac 1/13/2013

        1. Retrac – did you say 2013??? or did I make that up. I had the parameters set up for month/date and when I sorted yours kept appearing out of order until I set it up for month, date, year and it said 2013

  28. I think that by late Dec or early Jan when we’ve gotten nearly no snowfall we will be rooting for the lowest amount ever for a season which I think is something like 8 or 9 inches if I’m not mistaken, it’s very possible including the oct snow we could have a total of only 3 or 4 inches for the winter in early mid jan

    1. I actually love snow I really do but it’s almost like when I look out at the pattern it just upsets me and then Im almost mad at the weather, I know it comes out kinda rough around the edges but no harm meant, take it easy 🙂

      1. I like snow too !! Now that I have to drive in it, I ‘m a bit more weary of it and being a teacher, I personally root for it during the vacations. Mid to late June is a beautiful part of the year.

    1. Yes and Blah blah blah…. Sorry. I don’t have much to say. Not even
      worthy of posting any links.

  34. There is hope for us snowlovers but anything long range needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The NAO has to tank for winter to kick in here. Going out on a limb and this is not a good idea but no major snowfall through mid December.

    1. JJ, That wasn’t a limb, that was a redwood trunk! Lol
      Pretty safe bet at this point, I would say.

      We’re looking at 12/16 or beyond…….

  36. It never good to make predictions days in advance with weather since so much could change. The people who predicted late December or early January for the regime change are looking good at the moment.

  37. Just read the NWS out of NYC and its indicating rain could end briefly as snow Wed night north and west of NY. For here in SNE if there is snow higher elevations and not a big deal. This like which has been the case so far looks like another rainorama.

  39. I predict winter will have a difficult time starting up and end up on the mild side. This will remind us of all of the 1996-1997 winter, in which some of our coldest stretches occurred late in the season, though I do recall a few brief bursts of cold in January of 1997. I think snow totals will actually be on the high side because of some late season storms, from late February until possibly early April: total of 48 inches for Boston. For those like myself who like to skate on natural ice, it will be a very tough season, because regardless of how cold it is in March, ice generally will not form at that time of year. All of us snow and winterlovers will miss last year’s bonanza, which included the Charles river being frozen solid for over 2 months. That will not happen this year. In fact, the Charles in Boston will not freeze over.

  41. In terms of amounts per month, I will go with (and probably be dead-wrong):

    – trace to 2 inches in December (snow squalls at the back end of rain storms);
    – 7-10 inches in January (2 clipper systems; one that redevelops off the coast and surprises us with close to 6 inches, similar to a clipper in January 1997;
    – 10-14 inches in February (mid to late February nor’easters, one which features a rain to snow changeover)
    – 16-22 inches in March (closest simile is, I believe 1956 with the series of Saturday storms)
    – 3-5 inches in April (a very slushy but potent storm that dumps up to 2 feet in the mountains)

    As you can see there is a range here of 36 – 53 inches of snow.

    What am I basing this on? Mostly historical patterns.

  42. March 1956?? I remember those. Now this is going way back, but I do recall
    three (3) storms in a relatively short period of time. I was in the 4th grade and the
    snow was nearly up to my waist!! Of course to a kid, that was a lot of snow!!

      1. They should do more of that sort of thing. I found it to be
        very entertaining, but then sometimes it doesn’t take much
        to entertain myself. lol

    1. Amen. Just not looking like much in the next 2 weeks. Maybe we’ll be surprised. Signing off for now. Might check in aroun Midnight.

  45. hi gang–

    in north conway. only a few lonely snow banks here in there in parking lots.

    not even a skin of ice on the ponds.

    going up the cog tomorrow (only halfway in december)

    1. Have fun Retrac ! Was up that way last weekend. Saw Mt Washington in the nearby distance. Wonder if MT. Washington is getting snow tonight with cold front passage.

    2. retrac I have so many wonderful memories of skiing Cranmore every weekend with my mom, dad and brother. Enjoy. Lovely area!

    3. My dad skied Washington regularly when he was growing up. I probably said this but he was standing beside Toni Matt in 1939 (I think) when Matt caught the edge and skied the entire thing straight down in a record setting run. I also have a picture of my dad in one of the postcards the photographers did back then. Between the Lionel Trains and memories of the North Conway area I’m having some wonderful memories – thanks 🙂

      TK – how is your dad tonight and how is your son feeling also?

    1. Scott, I hope things work out for you at Lyndon. I went there for a while and winter sets in shortly after Columbus Day Weekend and ends sometime in April. The drive through Franconia Notch is an experience all winter long, and like UMass Lowell, they have a great meteorology program.

      1. I’m still waiting for my school forms to get their, it’s been about 2 weeks since they have been sent, SLOW process…
        I think it takes like 3 weeks for it all to get sent in, you would think it would be faster with today’s technology.
        I went there to visit in mid April and they still had a few snow piles. As a snow lover, it’s a great place to go to college.

        1. It is a great place for snow lovers and you would learn all about the shadow effect :)……………little bit of an adjustment to being in a quiet part of the world, but after a while, I came to really enjoy it……………Where ever you end up, get ready for Calculus and Physics. Hopefully, you are taking or are close to taking Pre-Calculus this year.

  47. Even without the snow, I enjoy watching two solar parts of the year. It is amazing to watch how low in the sky the sun remains in December and how at about 3:30pm, the sun is at the horizon. Conversely, I also like the long days of June and the never ending light.

  48. I am looking into Umass lowell… thinking of going to middlesex for the 2 years then going to Umass. I already have scholarships, one of the two is the Adams schoar ship. i get tuition free for any state school. so Umass lowell looks good. I probably be doing a minor in weather. and marine biology/ecology…etc really do not know but something to do with the envioment.

  49. Both the GFS & Euro are starting to reconfigure themselves, and typically having transitional pattern issues. This was mentioned before and is not a surprise. It is one heck of a slow break-down, but the pattern is in the process of changing. We’ll see what the result is…

    1. What and when do you think the result is?

      I’m thinking we are going to get fewer storms but each one really dumping on us equating to a above average snowfall for the winter.

      1. I realize all the stats point to low snow based on the warm Meteorological Autumn, but the fact that it was the warmest 3-month period on record for Sep-Nov makes me think that normal rules may not apply here.

        We’ve also been waiting for Stratospheric warming that can take place quickly and immediately alter the pattern. There is also a very large northern hemisphere disturbance that came out of the western Pacific that is likely to have influence on the downstream pattern (Alaska, Canada, USA) in the days ahead. How it all reconfigures is yet to be completely certain. We’ll have “new” battling “old” for a while longer.

        The one thing I know I’m wrong about in this pattern is my forecast for a “front end loaded” snow season. I was depending on a stronger La Nina and more blocking – and we all know how that turned out. But again, this is just another reminder that the atmosphere, though somewhat predictable, is too chaotic to be 100% forecastable.

    1. Truth be told, I would like some snow too, but if it could start after December 23rd, (school break), that would be perfect.

    1. My pleasure. If I don’t confirm I saw this please remind me. My computer is shut down for the night and I often don’t start it up on weekends.

  53. major storm tracks of this year i think
    1. inside runners rain/mix for southern new england
    2 clippers light snow/rain could form off the coast as larger storms
    3 nor easters forming off the mid atlantic eiter going up the coast or traveling to far out to sea

    2. welcome Matt — we have several contests running if you want to add your guesses to the mix

      1) amount of snow at Logan this season
      2) date ice on pond near Old Salty will freeze to 1 inch
      3) date the weather pattern will change

      Please make sure I respond to you that I’ve seen and recorded your guesses if you don’t mind. Remind me if I don’t answer you because it means I just didn’t see them.

  56. Scott/OS, this is first time (outside of our freak Oct storm) I’ve seen anything that looks like something could possibly happen. Not sure much will come of it but to me it’s one hopeful signal of a possible change.

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