Thursday December 24 2020 Forecast (8:33AM)

65 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 24-28)

Not bad today as high pressure slips offshore, and while there will be a lot of clouds around, it will turn milder with a bit of an increase wind before the end of the day – but decent for any day-before-Christmas errands you may have. The well-advertised “event”, which really is going to be a glorified cold frontal passage, will take place Christmas Day, arriving as increasing southerly wind and warming temperatures first during Santa’s visit, peaking as a band of moderate to heavy rain showers, possible thunder, and additional strong wind gusts well into Christmas morning, before the front passes, rain showers taper off, and wind settles back after shifting to west. Yes, wind damage and flooding are both a concern, wind damage and some resultant power outages most especially. Flooding is going to depend on several factors – how much rain, the state of storm drains, quick-filling streams, and structures vulnerable to basement flooding especially when there is snow on the ground. This will vary from place to place, but if you are prone to seeing flooding, please be aware. As far as rainfall amounts, even under 24 hours before the main rain event, the guidance is still not really in agreement on how much will take place, with some short range guidance having amounts under 1.00 inch near the MA East Coast with a bit more to the west and over Cape Cod to the ECMWF (Euro) having widespread 2-3 inch rainfall amounts. At the moment, I side a little more with the lower numbers. Regardless of how much rain falls, thankfully, because of a decent gap of time between the end of the rain and the arrival of below freezing temperatures, we can rule out a flash freeze. However, standing water and any surfaces that don’t dry off or are untreated will end up icing over later Friday night into Saturday morning. The weekend itself will feature cold and dry weather due to Canadian high pressure. The next low pressure system approaches on Monday, with the current thinking is that this low, fairly moisture starved, will head through the Great Lakes bringing a rain/snow shower risk here by late Monday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts above 20 MPH.

TONIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Cloudy. Rain showers arriving west to east overnight. Areas of fog. Temperatures rise to 48-55. Wind S 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, as high as 50-60 MPH especially in coastal areas and higher elevations, strongest toward dawn.

FRIDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy. Areas of fog early. Widespread rain showers, some heavy, and embedded thunderstorms possible morning into midday, tapering off from west to east during the afternoon. Highs 53-60 morning, falling into the 40s by late-day. Wind S 15-30 MPH with gusts as high as 50-60 MPH, especially coastal areas and higher elevations, during the morning, shifting to W and diminishing somewhat during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and/or snow showers late-day. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

Drier, shot of colder air December 29-30 then turning milder December 31 as 2020 goes out with fairly quiet weather. Next threat of unsettled weather comes on the first day of 2021 followed by fair weather on January 2.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 3-7)

Dry/chilly January 3, milder/unsettled January 4-5, colder/dry January 6-7.

65 thoughts on “Thursday December 24 2020 Forecast (8:33AM)”

  1. Thanks TK. Hoping for the lower rain amounts, as I don’t want to deal with flooding and power outages together!

  2. Thanks, TK.

    And a Happy 10th Birthday to WHW on Dec. 26. You have done a great job with this blog, keeping us all informed about the weather. And also a Merry Christmas to you and all. As we watch the once possible white Christmas go down the drain tomorrow! 🙁

    1. Since the timing of the rain is as it is, pretty much the entire area squeezes out the official white Christmas (1 inch or greater of snow on the ground at 12z). 🙂

  3. Thanks, TK!

    Happy Christmas Eve!

    In addition to the last-minute wrapping and card-writing, going to start up the generator and test the sump pump.

    TK, congratulations on 10 years of the blog and thank you for all of your work, dedication, insight and friendship!!!!

    This is a fun place to be with a lot of great people!!!!

    Merry Christmas to all! Please have fun and special times with dear ones!

    Blessings!

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    2 more days and it has been 10 years for WHW!!
    truly amazing and quite an accomplishment TK.

    Thank you for all you do and here’s for another 10 years!!!

    Merry Christmas.

    I leave you with a Christmas song…(Punk version, give it a minute. It’s good!)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Q1mKdd4_uU

    1. My basement will thank you if that holds. It doesn’t take much with bare ground let alone a foot of snow.

  6. Thanks TK!

    Just been through Copley Sq. and wind has picked up already. Glad no flash freeze is expected. Back to work for me Saturday morning.

    1. The buildings aid that wind, and we’re already at 5-15 MPH steady so that will add another 10 MPH.

          1. As you know, I used to work right across the street from Big Blue. One time the wind was gusting to 80 mph atop the hill while it was maybe 40-50 mph at out building.
            Elevation makes a big difference, but then it makes sense as it is that much closer to the LLJ.

  9. Thanks TK and Merry Christmas all! Congrats on 10 years of the blog! Time sure does fly by. Thanks for creating such a great forum for us all to talk about weather.

  12. My how things change in a week. Last week Dr. Stupid you were posting snowfall maps from across the dial. You got to love weather.

  16. This reminder is probably not needed for most of the people here, but I think a lot of people misread wind gust maps as sustained wind maps. I’ve seen some posts and comments on social media saying that we would be having 60 to 70 mph sustained winds. That is simply not the case. In most cases it’s not intentional misinformation, but it is misinformation. I know If you happen to see somebody doing this, please think about correcting them. The best way to battle misinformation, is to provide correct information. 🙂

    1. A little North, but looks suspiciously like a SOUTHEAST RIDGE!!!
      )(!@U)(#&**!@&#*(!&@#(*&!@(*#^&*!@^#*&!^@&*#^!*&@#^*&!@^#&*!^@#&*^!*&@#^!&*

  18. Thanks TK and Merry Christmas Eve to everyone!

    Looking past this Christmas mess, models have a weak cutter next Tuesday and a stronger cutter for New Years, however as I have been noting, the operational and ensemble models all have a strong signal for -NAO, -AO and +PNA as we turn the calendar year. This is a good look for some blocking setting up in the North Atlantic. This from the Euro EPS for the first week of January:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2020_12/20201224_051129.png.badda01494943168d0d53e437d2e5146.png

    I can’t remember the last time we had a -NAO (and -AO) modeled this strong in January…maybe 2010/2011?

    You would have to think we get some chances out of this as we head into January though with our luck the block will be too strong and stuff will get shunted to our south.

    You could see a much better setup the first week of January near the end of the 0z Euro operational run. So far not seeing it on the 12z GFS run which wants to keep the cutter train going into January despite the teleconnections. Doesn’t make sense to me.

  19. I don’t have a lot of faith in the -NAO / -AO forecasts for the simple reason that all medium range guidance (and even in some cases the ensembles) have been CRAPTACULAR (Bart Simpson reference) beyond a few days.

    From past experience, I’ve seen the “promising” outlook turn into a trough buried in the Southwest. Based on CPC’s outlooks, they are leaning this way.

    1. I hear you but hard to ignore the models and their ensembles seem to be agreeing on this and it is modeled to take shape only 7-10 days out. The models have been pretty much unwavering on the timing , strength, and track of our storm tonight for the past 7+ days. Surprisingly consistent as WxW noted.

      In any event, meteorology not modelology I know…. but I am going to try and remain cautiously optimistic 🙂

    1. Look at the upper wind fields, 500, 300 and 200 mb. As depicted, I think it would come up here. 🙂 🙂

      Now this does look better, but a LONG way to go. 🙂

  22. Happy Holidays all. Walking the shore, grey and not much wind. Plenty of walkers in shorts.

    Random thought: I do not understand the people in Washington DC. It is a clown show.

    OK back to the weather. Need someone to chime in. Has Eric changed his winter outlook? I thought I heard him say something to that effect a few days ago.

  23. Thank you, TK!

    Thank you for 10 years of forecasts, descriptive and explanatory meteorology, interactive dialogue, weather rants, climate change discussion, model mayhem, and the chance to express ourselves on major topics of the day, including Covid-19 but also sports on occasion.

  25. Merry Christmas to all at WHW who celebrate.

    Happy Holidays to all others.

    I’m blessed. My daughter made it across the Atlantic. It appears she brought English weather with her, at least today and part of tomorrow.

  26. Hmmm,
    despite statements to the contrary, it looks to me as if by
    7AM tomorrow, the snow, at least in my yard, will be gone.
    it is going fast!!

    also, not for nothing, but each run of the HRRR reduces the wind
    gusts for the Boston area, which is a good thing.

    2. It’s grass city here in Hingham. I bet if I took a measuring stick to any clinging snow that wasn’t plowed up into a heap it would be less than an inch.

  27. The thinking from what I am hearing is areas at or near the coast due to the cool ocean waters there might be an inversion in place so those big wind gusts can’t mix down to the surface. The HRRR might be picking up on that.

  29. Still have about 8 inches of snowcover here.

    Dr. S thanks for your Simpsons classic! I have a DVD that is a collection of all their holiday episodes. Funny stuff.

    1. This time tomorrow your 8 inches will be long gone, unfortunately. Coal in the stocking. 🙁

      Not to mention the Boston Christmas Day rainfall record (0.89”)…down the drain as well. Set in 1978.

      1. I don’t even care if it’s all gone by that time tomorrow.

        Having snow on the ground or not for Christmas was never an issue for me.

        Some are bare. Some are snow covered.
        Sometimes we have warm weather. Sometimes we have cold weather..

        I love Christmas no matter what the weather is. 🙂

    2. We’re lucky if it is 3 inches here. I have never seen it disappear so fast. Well, actually I have. Just saying.

  31. If anybody looks at the radar out of Dover Delaware, no the rainfall is not really that intense… There is a problem with the radar.

  33. Merry Christmas!

    56 degrees with heavy wind blown rain now in Coventry CT. Snow has been incinerated aside from the piles so it will not be a white Christmas here.

    Crazy to see many areas in SNE near or pushing 60 on Christmas Day while temps are in the upper 30s in SC, GA, and north Florida.

      1. That’s normal for an amplified set-up.
        No big deal if we’re warm & wet.
        Just hoping the power issues are minimal.

        To be honest, I wouldn’t want every Christmas to have the exact same weather here. I love the variety.

        Just last year we had a beautiful gentle snowfall on Christmas Eve.

        Two years before that, we had a thundersnowstorm on Christmas morning. Variety. That’s what we do…

  34. This thing is going to under-achieve for rainfall, especially in eastern MA. But that’s not actually a surprise.

    Wind was always going to be the #1 aspect of this thing.

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