Friday January 22 2021 Forecast (7:49AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)

Low pressure passing north of our area today will drag a cold front through the region by later in the day. The air will be relatively mild ahead of this front, probably the last 40+ degree day for much of the region for a while. Although Boston broke their second longest stretch on record of days with above normal temperatures yesterday with a below normal day, there will be one more above normal day today before we head into a stretch of below normal for the remainder of this five-day forecast period (and probably beyond). This is a result of a continued blocking pattern in the northern hemisphere which has now adjusted itself to grab a piece of the arctic air that has been residing on the other side of the hemisphere and deliver it to the northeastern US. Granted, we won’t see anything like the cold that has been experienced in parts of Europe & Asia, but in a relative sense, it will feel quite cold compared to what we have experienced this winter so far. As that cold air arrives, the frontal boundary leading it in will produce a few showers and with marginal temperatures and a little bit of convective action in the atmosphere, these may fall as rain, snow, or even graupel depending on their location. This type of set-up often makes for picturesque skies as well, so a little show is to be put on by the atmosphere to mark the change, and then it’s onto a cold & dry weekend with air coming from Canada on a gusty northwest to north wind. While we’ll have plenty of sunshine both Saturday & Sunday, for the first time in quite a while it may fail to reach freezing throughout most of the region with a few possible exceptions on Sunday. The cold remains in place early next week. That much is certain. What there is continued uncertainty about is a snow threat. Low pressure will be passing south of New England between late Monday and Tuesday, and we continue to see some differences across the various computer guidance we look at, some of them bringing a light to even moderate snowfall into at least southern areas, while others indicate a complete miss. At this point, I continue to lean toward the miss scenario, but with the door open for at least some light snow to reach southern areas, especially the South Coast. But at day 5, that leaves plenty of time to figure this part of the forecast out.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Passing showers of rain, snow, and/or graupel possible mainly mid to late afternoon and favoring areas west and north of Boston. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW late in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with passing snow showers possible in the evening. Clear overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 24-31. Wind NNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun & high clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Some light snow possible near the South Coast. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with some South Coast light snow possible morning. Clearing afternoon. Highs 24-31. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)

As we move through the final 5 days of January we should see the blocking pattern continue and the storm track suppressed to the south with another system likely moving out south of the region around the middle of the period, but it may become quite a large ocean storm and bend the air flow around enough that some ocean effect snow showers may reach some coastal areas somewhere in the January 29-31 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

Still uncertainty regarding the blocking pattern’s status. With low confidence I believe it holds but weakens during the first several days of February. As far as sensible weather for us, probably still on the drier side overall but any shift in the blocking pattern’s strength or position could open the door for some unsettled weather, which we’ll have to monitor.

47 thoughts on “Friday January 22 2021 Forecast (7:49AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Is it my imagination, or has the gfs crept northward with the tuesday system?

    1. Don’t forget overtime, when the Rask stood on his head and shoot out when J.D. showed how good he really is at faking out the goalie.

      It’s a good thing too because I was starting to use the Bruins as a relaxation tool…. Especially after the first two periods.

      1. Indeed ! His last save in OT, when he lifted has leg up , as he was flat on the ice, to thwart a point blank shot was unreal.

  6. Thanks TK.

    Arrived here at Jay Peak last night. Snowed most of the way north of White River Jct. They have received another 6-8” of new snow in the last 24 hours and 46” now since Saturday. This is nuts!

  7. Although it appears that the 12Z GFS wants to bring the Tuesday system a little closer, it does a mean trick.

    Here is is at hour 96:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021012212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16.png

    250 mb winds

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021012212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_19.png

    And 6 hours later at hour 108

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021012212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_18.png

    and hour 114

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021012212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_19.png

  9. Looking at the snowfall projections on the 12z GFS it looks like when were tracking a weakening line of thunderstorms coming into SNE. This is the case with the snowfall projections highest west of SNE where the better lift is and little in western parts of SNE.

  12. Thanks, TK!

    Very pretty day, beginning with a beautiful sunrise. Maybe it’s just me, but I believe we’ve had some spectacular sunrises and sunsets in recent weeks!

    Thought of you, Dave, as I passed through JP on the Jamaicaway this morning returning from a doctor’s appointment in Kenmore!

    Hammerin’ Hank Aaron passed this morning. One of my favorites! To me, still and always the all-time home run hitter.

    1. Well you were not far from where I am sitting.
      Perhaps 600 feet or so. 🙂

      Sad news on Hank. We keep losing them.

  13. Providence’s second greatest snowfall on record 16 years ago today, January 22-23, 2005: 23.5″

    Boston: 22.4″ (#8 all-time)

    Taunton: 18.0″ (#9)

  15. So in case anybody hasn’t noticed, a study of the upper level pattern will yield a glaring result: This is not the type of pattern we bring storms up the coast, and it’s not changing any time soon either, so get used to it. 🙂

    The models will continue their general suckage beyond day 3, but a well-informed use of guidance and some applied meteorology says while we should never turn our back on anything near the East Coast until it’s safely by, that we’re not likely to be threatened in any significant way by something over the next week, at least.

      1. We have to watch the transition time out of the block.
        And I still have a funny feeling about March…

  16. Thank you, TK!

    Hammerin’ Hank passed away.

    Gut punch. He was a tremendous baseball player. Had all the tools. That sweet swing was a thing of beauty. Aaron persevered in the face of racism. He was the consummate gentleman; a wonderful ambassador to the sport for decades.

    In the spring of 1999, my ex-wife and children were strolling through Manhattan on, I believe, Madison Avenue when I happened to spot Aaron signing books inside a Barnes & Noble bookstore. My ex-wife took a great picture of Aaron. The now framed picture remains one of my treasures.

    I was at the game – in the bleachers – when Aaron hit his one and only homerun at Fenway. He was an aging star then, but the swing was still so compact. You’ll notice who threw him a slow curve ball – Bill Lee. My brother and I met Lee at a blood donation center on Brookline Avenue. This was back in 1975. My brother was donating blood, and Lee was there to talk about, well, Bill Lee things: how to throw a screw ball (he told me it’s like turning a door knob) and that I (we) should eat organic food.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgWBIfvDonI

    1. M.y Father taught me how to throw a screw ball. I loved that pitch as i would throw it hard. Bill Lee was quite a character.

    1. Yes, indeed. Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver, Lou Brock, Frank Robinson, Joe Morgan, Hank Aaron, and of course Tommy Lasorda. I know I’m missing a few. That’s basically a team they can field up in heaven. And a VERY good one.

  20. Boston would need 26.2” just to get to “normal” snowfall.

    17.6” + 26.2” = 43.8”

    TK – Will you consider lowering your expectations for total snowfall at Logan this season?

    1. Why would I need to? 🙂
      We don’t even reach the half way point of winter until February 2. 😉

      1. I had no idea that “Groundhog Day” was the midpoint of winter. I have to remember that for future reference. 🙂

  21. This is the first time in a LONG time I see both the ECMWF & GFS agreeing and very clustered in the same area with their MJO forecasts – both right along the phase 6/7 line of weak to moderate intensity.

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