Monday January 25 2021 Forecast (7:34AM)

61 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 25-29)

A quiet & cold start to the week today as high pressure slides eastward into the region, centered to the north, and low pressure in the Canadian Maritime Provinces drifts further away, allowing winds to slacken. A more active period of weather will then be with us for the rest of this period, starting as low pressure makes a run at New England via the Midwest Tuesday. The blocking pattern in place will force a redevelopment of this system in the form of a fairly weak, elongated low pressure area well south of New England later Tuesday into Wednesday, which will then head out to sea, but while this is happening, the energy left from the original dissipating surface low will come across the region at the same time the wind turns northeasterly here. All of this will combine for periods of snow Tuesday night and Wednesday, which will lead to some minor accumulations. Some of this snowfall Tuesday night to early Wednesday, which may be mixed with rain initially over Cape Cod and the South Coast region, will be from the old storm’s energy, while some of it will be ocean-effect. It won’t be a big storm, but since snow has been relatively absent recently, it’ll be important to keep in mind that even small amounts of snow falling on travel ways that are not treated can lead to slippery conditions. As we get to Thursday, a second low pressure area will be passing south of New England, and this one will blow up into a powerful ocean storm, not making a direct hit at all, but serving to keep the northeasterly air flow going with some additional ocean-effect snow showers, especially in eastern and southeastern portions of the region. What this storm will do as it turns northeastward toward the Maritimes of Canada is pull down another piece of Arctic air and we will turn quite cold for the end of the week, with a few additional ocean-effect snow showers due to a northerly air flow over Cape Cod during Friday, which will easily be the coldest day of the next 5.

TODAY: Sunshine & a few high clouds. Highs 29-36. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH possible.

TONIGHT: Lots of high clouds. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Thickening high to mid level clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow, except possibly mixed with rain South Coast. Snow accumulation of a coating to around 1 inch possible. Lows 25-32. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of snow except possible rain/snow mix South Coast morning with additional snow accumulation of a coating to around 1 inch possible. Snow showers possible in the afternoon. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers possible, favoring southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI. Lows 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Additional snow showers possible favoring Cape Cod. Highs 25-32. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Snow showers possible mainly Cape Cod. Lows 10-17. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts possible on Cape Cod.

FRIDAY: Sunny except clouds and snow showers possible Outer Cape Cod. Highs 18-25. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts possible especially eastern coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

The blocking pattern is likely to still be in place but may be weakening. Fair and cold but more tranquil weather as high pressure moves in January 30. Watching later January 31 to early February 2 period for the next potential impact from low pressure. Fair, chilly ending to this period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

Expecting a continued slow weakening of the blocking pattern and we will have to watch for additional opportunities for unsettled weather as a result of a storm track that allows low pressure systems more direct access to the Northeast.

61 thoughts on “Monday January 25 2021 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Looking over all of the models, they all call for 1-3 or 2-4 inches, certainly falling in you range.

    I am wondering if temps might be just a bit above freezing, thus limiting the accumulation with light intensity snow.

        1. You are correct. I had my calendar set to the 26th to remind me not to play any pickups on Wednesday. Thank you

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    2. JP Dave – I doubt the temps limit the accumulation. Cold aloft, with cold ground should allow what falls to the ground stick.

      More likely limiting factor is light precip rates falling through very dry columns failing to fully saturate the atmosphere to the surface. Might be snowing on radar, but not at the surface levels.

      1. Thank you JMA. Not much of an event, that’s for sure.

        Do you see any rain along the coast with the light precipitation and 42 degree ocean? Thanks

  10. 12Z NAM has it raining later on in the event. We go from it being completely suppressed to raining? We can’t catch a break, can we. Btw, I am NOT convinced it rains in Boston, at least not in most of the neighborhoods. Time will tell. Well, I guess it depends upon which site one looks at. College of DuPage depicts rain while Pivotal keeps it snow.

    Temperature profiles get close to marginal with 34 projected
    for Eastern MA. That “should” keep it snow as temps aloft are cold, BUT it would limit accumulation.

  12. Jpdave have you been keeping track for the potential next week? People have been asking me about it and I haven’t seen you feverishly posting about it. lmao

    1. GFS

      https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021012506/171/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

      https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021012506/177/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

      Total Kuchera Snow, includes the small amount for this week.

      https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021012506/213/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

      Ho do you like them apples. NOT that this will happen. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      EURO is more high and tight

      https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021012500/204/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne.png

    1. FWIW, the RDPS redevelops the system farther North
      than the other systems, probably the reason for higher snow totals. “Looks” like 12Z will also have higher snow totals.

  19. Thanks TK.

    It may be that much of SNE comes away with 2-4″, locally 4-6″ over the next 48 hours, though it will be the kind of long duration, light intensity event where the bark is probably worse than the bite either way.

    A miss to the south late week, no surprise there as TK has laid out all the reasons why that one never had a chance to come up the coast. A sharp cold shot to follow, pure Arctic air with that one for the first time this season.

    The pattern looks quite unclear to me heading into February though. Looks like another storm threat near 2/1. We probably get some warmer air in here in the first week of the month. But I’m not sure how long it sticks around. The MJO forecast suggests there’s some “blowtorch” potential for February, and that the Southeast ridge may be about to set up shop in earnest. But a lot of conflicting signals in the models. It also looks like a wetter pattern developing, which this time of year often means a whiter pattern regardless of temperatures. No easy answers in the long range right now.

    2. And the 2-4″, locally 4-6″ over the next 48 hours was a change that started to show later yesterday. Most interesting.

      I am not liking early indications for 1/31-2/1 as that is looking
      more and more to come TOO FAR NORTH!)(@#&&!@*(#(&*!@&#*(&!@(*#&!(*@&#*

      Loads of time left for that one, however. 🙂

  22. This upcoming event looks more robust than I would have thought 48 hours ago. Nothing that would have been notable in 2011 or 2015, but still some accumulating snow.

    The system later in the week is going to become quite powerful out over the ocean, so I would refrain from making too many assumptions about the systems that follow it up until we have a more clear understanding of the evolution of the later week system.

    1. Yes, that is understood. I wasn’t really making assumptions, but rather commenting how I dislike current model depictions for
      the next system. You will note that I said there was loads of time
      for that one. Given the track history this Winter, we’ll have to wait quite awhile before any definitive resolution is reached.

      But, thank you for that reminder. I have noticed how deep the next system has been progged to be. Too bad that one did sit
      South of Block Island for a day or 2. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  25. Been busy the last several days applying to a couple of fellowships so really have just glanced at the next system but my best thoughts for the little system you all will be able to enjoy. I believe like several have mentioned above that a general 2-4 inches are likely over a long period of time across southern New England. I do feel that dry air could be an issue just to the north. https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1353735023082549251

    1. This covers 2 “coating to around 1 inch” episodes over a 36 hour period and I agree with it.

  29. Re: Model snowfall maps.
    For this upcoming event, pay a bit more attention to the snowfall map that is positive change in snow depth instead of the “accumulation” maps. It will be a more accurate representation of the on-the-ground impact.

  31. For several days I thought Tuesday / Wednesday would pass with clouds and maybe some flurries / limited snow shower activity. It will be a bit more than that, but I am not sure the impact will be more significant than what it would have been if my prior thinking came to fruition.

    First low dew points and lots of mid level dry air intrusion will eat up moisture. Then as moisture does saturate there will be slightly warmer air about and rising dew points that will create a kind of snizzle. A snowflake drizzle so to speak. So it may look like it snowing over a widespread area for longtime but actual ground truth impacts could be quite minimal

    Long way of saying, look out your window for the actual impact in your neighborhood and oh like TK said, the model snowfall maps are not overly helpful here. Snow on ground or positive change might prove better.

          1. The Ch.7 Met has rain/snow with a high of 39 for Boston on that day though. Hope that trends colder with time.

            1. Either way, the groundhog Ms. G will “not” see her shadow on February 2…assuming she is still with us.

              An early spring, correct?

              1. We can’t determine the sky condition for February 2 this far in advance, so the shadow may or may not be seen.

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