Tuesday January 26 2021 Forecast (7:45AM)

149 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 26-30)

Three low pressure systems will impact our area during this 5-day period. Low pressure area #1 heads from the Ohio Valley to the eastern Great Lakes through tonight and meets its demise as a surface system over New York by tomorrow, while low #2 is a redevelopment of #1 a few hundred miles south of New England as an elongated system which will help turn our wind to northeast and east, off the Atlantic. It is the synoptic snow, generated at mid levels, that will move into our area from west to east by this evening, when most of the accumulation we are to expect will take place. Low #2 takes over offshore, absorbing the energy of #1 and keeping a northeasterly flow going during Wednesday, and while the synoptic-driven snow fades away due to drier air aloft, we’ll see some ocean-effect snow showers generated. I’m not expecting much snow accumulation during the day Wednesday from these due to their spotty nature and marginal surface temperatures. Low #3, meanwhile, will emerge off the Mid Atlantic and chase #2 away, becoming quite a powerhouse as it passes well to the south, keeping its own precipitation shield offshore, but helping to keep the northeasterly to northerly air flow going through Thursday, with additional ocean-effect snow showers. One more surge of minor accumulation should take place Wednesday night. Low #3 will become quite the large circulation offshore to the east of New England through Friday and the northerly air flow behind it will keep a snow shower threat going over Cape Cod, and one lobe of snow showers may make it as far back as the rest of coastal eastern MA sometime that day as well with a little trough extending out from the offshore storm. This will also pull the coldest air of the season so far out of Canada and into New England with some areas failing to reach 20 that day. Only a modest recovery is expected Saturday although it will be easier to take as the wind diminishes while high pressure moves into the region with sunshine.

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow of a coating to 2 inches except up to 3 inches possible in higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 22-29. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy early to mid morning with snow tapering off. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers thereafter but little additional accumulation. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely, accumulating an additional coating to 1 inch. Lows 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely in the morning. Partly sunny with scattered snow showers favoring Cape Cod during the afternoon. Highs 30-37 by midday but temperatures falling sharply later. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with snow showers Cape Cod. Clear elsewhere. Lows 8-15. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially eastern coastal areas. Wind chill below zero at times.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy with most clouds eastern MA coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Additional snow showers possible mainly Cape Cod but brief snow showers possible NH Seacoast to eastern coastal MA too. Highs 16-23. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near zero at times.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 6-13. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

Dry and cold as high pressure hangs on through January 31. Favoring a slower timing for the threat of the next system, focusing on February 1 to early February 2 for this, but too early to determine what specific impacts a low pressure system moving into the region from the southwest will have. Fair, seasonably cold weather should follow this.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Best window of opportunity for additional unsettled weather is February 6-7 but low to moderate confidence. Can’t say much more about anything this far out as the status of the large scale pattern (blocking, etc.) is still somewhat uncertain.

149 thoughts on “Tuesday January 26 2021 Forecast (7:45AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Well you said January would be below normal for snow. Looking like well below at this point, unless the 2/1 system comes in on
    1/31. 🙂

    2. That doesn´t treat the north or south shore too well, but for everyone else, that would be a nice light to low end – moderate snowfall.

  6. Its a small change over time, but this projected snow amount tonight has been increasing a bit with each model run.

    Quite a 500 mb disturbance coming overhead in a few days. I wonder if someone on the Cape gets quite a snow squall amount total. I´m guessing there will also be quite a temp differential btwn the ocean and the 850 mb temps above.

    1. Thanks Doc. I believe that the NWS map is the most accurate of them all. But that is just my opinion. 🙂

  13. Good morning and thank you, TK!

    I was reading coverage of the Alabama tornado last night. How sad that the boy who was killed was doing exactly what he should be.

    1. I wonder if that is the model that the Ch. 7 met used this morning. His 7-day had rain/snow with a high of 39 for Boston. That map would sure reflect something like that. Hope that turns colder.

  18. Thanks TK. In what’s been a docile winter, the next 7 days will be a bit of a wakeup call to what season we’re in.

    Next 48 hours… No changes to my thoughts from yesterday. Widespread 2-4″, locally 4-6″, but it probably won’t feel like as much as it will be, not that it’s much to begin with.

    *Very* cold to end the week with some additional light snow on the Cape. This will be “protect your pipes” levels of cold, a fairly long duration spell of sub-freezing.

    1/31-2/2: Still early, but I’m bullish on this system for snow potential. A slow mover with so much cold air ahead of it spells major winter storm to me, or at least the potential for it. However, for SNE, I think the bigger concern would be suppression as opposed to too far north/mixing issues. Still a lot of time to iron that one out.

    1. Thanks WxWatcher. We ALWAYS appreciate your input and thank you so much for thinking of us while you are working
      hard at the Mt. Holly NWS office. Your alma mata is Plymouth State University in NH, is it not? Our Nephew graduated there in Meteorology as well, but unlike you, was unable to procure a position. He once interned with Ed Carrol at WBZ ch 4.

      1. Thanks JpDave! I’ve still got a lot of family in SNE so while I can’t dig into the weather there as deep as I may like to, I’m always watching 🙂

        You would not be happy with the snow situation here. This is my third full winter (started in Dec ’18) and the largest snowfall I’ve seen was about 6″ this past December. It’s a less snowy climate than SNE of course but even by our standards it’s been quite a snow drought the past couple years. I’m more in the TK camp of “enjoy what you get” but even I am a little antsy to see a bigger event. Maybe this 2/1 storm….

        And yes, I am a Plymouth grad, hard to believe it’s coming up on 3 years! I would say the job market in meteorology right now is at least “fair” and probably better than it has been most of the past 10-15 years, but it’s definitely not easy and generally requires a lot of willingness to move around.

    1. I’ll say suppressed. Makes me de-pressed. 😀

      Still very early but beginning to wonder if that 2/1 is just going to end up being a light to “barely” moderate snowfall.

      1. The two situations are not really related.
        We’ll analyze that one for what it is and the pattern will be in transition at that time.

  29. Wow, really coming down here now. S+! Everything is white. Unfortunately radar looks more broken off to the west but sure is pretty out there right now.

    1. It’s probably going to break up with time as it moves eastward towards 495 into Boston. I bet this evening the radar won’t look nearly so impressive. We will see.

  31. Nothing in South Sutton yet. But Macs cousin has snow and a power outage in Tucson, AZ. How awesome is that.

      1. If you didn’t know, Mt. Lemmon is located in Tuscon, AZ.
        There is actually a Ski Area there. They don’t make snow, so it has a limited season, but it is there.

  32. Snowed lightened up now picking up but dry slot approaching from the Hudson River Valley of NY so won’t be too much longer until the snow comes to end.

  33. Thank you, TK.

    I also want to thank WxWatcher for his contributions. While he’s in NJ it’s always great to hear his perspective on SNE weather.

    JMA’s posts are special, too.

    JP Dave’s infectious (can I say that in the middle of a pandemic?) enthusiasm, model run-downs, and &%$@#@*&^expletives brighten my day.

    I enjoy the many pictures Mark shares, often of snow scenes in New England and his native home state of NY.

    Tom’s astute model interpretations probe the meteorological part of my brain.

    And Matt’s observations and forecasts from afar (Virgin Islands) are much appreciated.

    Of course, I also very much appreciate reading posts from Vicki, JJ, SSK, the doctor, Captain, SClarke, Ace (haven’t seen his posts in a while), our winter guests Hadi and Arod, and so many more.

  34. Thank you for your kind words Joshua.
    I am so happy to be part of this weather blog and share thoughts as well as gain a better understanding of weather from TK, JMA, and WxWatcher.

  36. Dry air is beating the shit out of this snow area as it advances eastward. It’s been snowing above me for over an hour now and the first flakes are just reaching the ground. And if you compare the radar now to the radar 2 hours ago… while it still has some moderate splotches, it looks like a rotting tree.

    1. Unless that snow area gets a shot of energy in the next few hours, I find it hard to believe that the NWS snow map is going to verify. Satellite loop makes me feel this way even more…

  38. That’s a good one TK! I don’t think I’ve ever heard of radar returns referred to as a rotting tree. Great visual.

    1. It did indeed. We actually had a preview on January 24, which is when the switch was flipped. Then came the first of 4 biggies just a few days later…

      1. I remember the 1/24 event particularly well for some reason. I think because it happened just 2 days before I returned to school, and subsequently missed the entire snow blitz. It was a snow to mix/rain storm, but one where basically all of the precip fell while it was still cold enough for snow, and by the time it warmed up enough for the changeover there really wasn’t much left. It gave a pretty good thump of snow with some glaze on top.

  43. Still snowing here at the office in Manchester CT at varying rates with a solid inch on the ground. Radar to the west/southwest is pretty spotty at best though so will have to fill in pretty good tonight to see those NWS totals verify.

  44. Harvey has said numerous times since last night could be ( depending how it goes ) significant snow storm Monday night / Tuesday / maybe into Wednesday. Key word potential & possibly significant.

    1. Potential is definitely there. All models have had a consistent signal for a coastal storm forming early next week and with the block in place, it could be a long duration event if everything comes together just right. This could finally be a situation where the block helps produce for us. We’ll see how it shakes out, but I’d be surprised if we didn’t see at least something out of it.

  45. Had a great time up at Jay Peak VT this past weekend. It is pure, deep winter up there after nearly 4 feet of snow falling last week. Lots of deep powder in the woods and snow/rime caked trees on the upper half of the mountain. It was absolutely beautiful and I took many pictures. Here a couple shots:

    Looking at the Summit of Jay Peak from the top of the lift on little Jay:

    https://imgur.com/odDefIM

    My son at the top of Tuckerman’s Chute off the summit face (had to hike to get to this since the Tram wasn’t operating):

    https://imgur.com/QKkdosD

    A couple pictures skiing the glades through snow caked trees:

    https://imgur.com/VKXKTui

    https://imgur.com/vtfTuF8

    I should add that there were few crowds up there and we were basically just walking on the lifts. The Canadian border being closed and the cold, windy weather over the weekend were factors I’m sure but we weren’t complaining (and we were well prepared for the cold!)

    1. Hi Mark,

      Looks great. How were the Covid restrictions? Everything seems really difficult to book lately and I’m trying to take my family away. Also did you have to get tested before and after leaving the state?

      Thank you

      1. When you check into the hotel or buy advance online tickets for any ski area in VT, you just have to sign an electronic certification that you have quarantined in your home state prior to entering VT. There is no testing requirement.

          1. Effectively…the kids did remote learning leading up to the trip and I was working from home. Left the house on a limited basis for essentials.

              1. My Niece lives just North of Burlington, VT and Skis all of the time at Smugglers Notch. They do not quarantine before going as they are not from out of state.

      2. Everything else up there is pretty much the same as here. The restaurants aren’t at full capacity and you need to make reservations in advance. Masks are required in the lift loading areas and ski lodges, but not while skiing. This wasnt a problem as it was frigid up there. The lodges also have capacity limits as they have had to remove tables to be greater than 6 feet apart. And obviously they aren’t combining different groups on the same lifts which effectively reduces the lift capacity.

  46. Snowing quite hard here in JP. “Just” under 1 inch on the ground. I was just out bringing the trash barrels back. BEAUTIFUL out there. I only had a light sweatshirt and jeans on and it was MOST comfortable. NOT cold at all. Snow felt wonderful pelting all over me. I loved it.

    The radar looks pretty damn impressive right now. The only drawback is that there appears to be a back end out by Springfield. Here’s hoping along the coast that it hangs in and loops back in some.

    We shall see.

          1. I have to fill in for Mark when he is too busy to post.
            Between the 2 of us, we have maps pretty well covered. 🙂

    1. Yeah but its a 36 hour event and it flips to snow on that particular run. Those thermal profiles also look too warm to me. Should have deeper cold air in place for this event.

      1. Not much left after it flips. Looks like a piece of shit to me!
        Yes there is time and Euro has it farther South AND it is a 18Z run, so let’s see what the 0z run looks like. 🙂

      1. Call it wishful thinking, but I would trust the Euro on this over the GFS. Now watch, I’ll get bitten in the ass!!!

  49. Now I am getting very spotty light snow. Around 5pm another good burst came through and coated everything up. It is nice to be looking at snow on the ground.

  50. No model is going to pick up rn/sn lines this far out. Just look at ensembles and you get the idea. Big storm lurking, plenty of cold air around.

    1. I agree, but please allow me to piss all over the GFS when I don’t like what I am seeing… Have you looked out the Window????

      Although it has lightened up just a bit, it was snowing quite hard.

  51. The signal is there for a storm early next week. Let’s hope this pans out like the one did in mid December.

  56. Back edge of accumulating snow is just hauling eastward. We’ve had the vast vast majority of our accumulation already…

    I’ll get a Woburn measurement after the Bruins game when I go out to scrape off the driveway & walks. 🙂

  57. Holding on to moderate snow. 2”.

    What a nice surprise. Up to 36 hrs ago …. zzzzzzzz ….. then, ok, maybe a dusting, maybe a 1/2 inch. But, very much a nice overachieve punch of snow.

  58. The general 2-4/local 4-6 should work out for just about everywhere. Maybe a little more towards the high end. But most of what falls from here (later tonight and tomorrow) will just be mood flakes.

    1. Looks like you nailed this baby. Nicely done.

      We’re at “about” 2 inches here. Snowing pretty damn hard here, BUT as TK alluded to, back end is approaching fairly quickly.

      1. Trying to make up for a couple of abysmal forecasts earlier in the winter haha. Haven’t had much chance with the snoozefest since Christmas 😉

        Bet it’ll look very nice up there in the morning! Much of this snow will probably stick around through the end of the week and could add a little extra bite to the late week cold.

  59. NWS Boston
    @NWSBoston
    46m

    Snowfall totals as of 7 PM:

    PVD: 2.1″
    BOS: 1.5″
    NWS Boston/Norton: 1.5″
    BDL: 1.3″

    No report yet from ORH – stay tuned!

  61. Boston I believe with the 1.5 inches to go along with the 0.3 earlier in the month will not have the least snowiest January on record.

  66. From Eric Fisher
    Winter is back. Appetizer before early next week? Time will tell, but looks interesting Monday-Tuesday.

    1. Yeah if you saw above Harvey has been discussing that potential since last night saying could be significant & long if of course it pans out .

  67. I am hoping this is the appetizer. I wonder if this winter will be like 2000-2001 when all is said and done. I remember that winter had three good size storms one around New Year’s, the second first week of February, and the last in early March. Snowfall was below normal that season but at least had three good size storms. We had one already and hopefully will have number two early next week.

    1. Agree. It really is pretty outside. Something about snow. Not sure if I could live without it, say, in San Diego.

  69. Calling it 2.5 here in Woburn.
    Definitely more FLUFF factor than I anticipated so, more snow accumulation as well. No biggie. Off by about 1 inch or about 0.07 inch melted. All shoveled out. Simple one.

      1. Time will tell. We’re still not done with this “event” though, until sometime on Friday for the entire area.

        Once we get to the end of the week I’ll really start to focus on early next week’s threat. Not much we can say about it beyond it being a threat window & a favorable pattern for a significant event.

      2. I was referring to next week, but will this current one be as simple after all as snow is coming down again here?

        More accumulation overnight?

  70. Just about an even 2” here. But plow just went up and down the street. Not sure what it is plowing with a huge town plow…. sparks maybe as they were flying from the blade. And we are getting a third pass as I type. Whatever floats their boat I guess

    1. Your posts are going to moderation because your name is showing up as “V”. The rest of it was missing. I fixed the 2 posts that went there, but just wanted to let you know this was happening. 🙂 Looks like a gremlin went in and erased your “icki”. 😉

  71. Boy does the 00z NAM bring that massive norlun awfully close. Seemed to be trending, thoughts TK? Even the GFS starting to extend even close.me.

    1. It’s probably slightly overdone, but there is going to be a trough there, as well as an arctic boundary. We cannot rule out a round of solid snow squalls somewhere between Thursday night & midday Friday. Will try to refine that.

      1. Probably. Thanks fill out the online form with the spotter ID and I’ve noticed they’ll typically report that one over a ham radio or random people

  74. Still snowing here. The NAMS, HRRR and RDPS advertising more snow this week. A big push of snow in from the ocean.

    Have not been out, but looks like 3-4 inches here in JP.
    Enough that our street needed to be plowed.

    I like over achievers. 🙂

  75. I just saw 3.6 officially at Logan so far bringing the snow total to the month to I believe 3.9 inches which now means Boston will not have the least snowiest January on record.

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