Friday January 29 2021 Forecast (7:53AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 29- FEBRUARY 2)

A frigid Friday for us as a large ocean storm pulls arctic air down out of Canada right across New England. Also, we have the snow threat for eastern areas as a result of a trough swinging around the back side of a large ocean storm. While this event will be short-lived, occurring from north to south over a 2 to 4 hour period this afternoon, it can produce some significant snowfall in a brief time, especially over Cape Cod, along with a lot of wind, so brief blizzard conditions may occur especially for the outer Cape which is likely to be in the heaviest of the snowfall combined with the steadiest/strongest wind. Other than a few additional ocean-effect flurries for Cape Cod tonight into early Saturday, by later today the snow threat is gone and it’s just cold and dry into the weekend, although the core of the cold will have departed and we’ll see an abatement of the wind as well. By Sunday, even though we’ll still be below freezing, it will feel mild in comparison to what we’ll be going through today. And then our attention turns to the early week storm threat. There is not all that much to say yet, other than the threat is there, and the timing for our area looks like later Monday night and Tuesday at this time. The potential is increase for a significant snowfall from this event, but it’s too early to know if a rain/snow line will be involved and far too early to really talk about snow amounts. These details will become clearer as we progress into and through the weekend. In the mean time, stay warm!

TODAY: Variably cloudy. A period of snow showers/squalls moving north to south across NH Seacoast and eastern MA this afternoon, heaviest Cape Cod, accumulations of a coating to 1 inch I-95 belt, 1-3 inches Cape Ann & MA South Shore, 3-6 inches Cape Cod. Highs 14-21. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below zero at times.

TONIGHT: Clouds and additional snow showers Cape Cod, clear elsewhere. Lows 5-12. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below zero.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill occasionally below 10.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7 except 8-15 urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing. Wind chill occasionally below zero.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Thickening overcast. Highs 25-32. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arriving. Lows 20-27. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow likely, mix/rain possible. Highs 28-35. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

Fair, breezy, briefly colder February 3 post-storm. Temperature moderation follows later next week with some unsettled weather returning in around mid period as the next low pressure area tracks north of the region, with drier/colder air following that.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

The overall pattern may quiet down but there remains a lot of uncertainty due to the questions surrounding the status of blocking, which should be much weaker. Will re-evaluate this period over the next few days.

167 thoughts on “Friday January 29 2021 Forecast (7:53AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK. I see you are still fairly bullish for the storm potential Monday night into Tuesday.

    Let’s just say I remain skeptical, but hoping for a biggie. I refuse to get sucked in just yet. 6Z GFS and 0Z CMC blow chunks. 0Z Euro still on board, but shifted heavier snow to the East.

    I await the 12z runs for perhaps some more clarification. I would like to see some model convergence instead of the divergence we keep seeing.

  2. Thanks TK. Bitterly cold out there this morning. Been quite awhile since we’ve seen cold like this.

    Tough forecast for the coming storm. Am I finally about to see significant snow here in NJ? Still not confident in it but the indications this morning are that the mid-Atlantic has the best shot for a “big” event, but that SNE impacts are very much on the table as well.

    1. Sounds like you are still thinking chance bulk of storm stays
      South of SNE, but chance it makes it into SNE.

      6Z GFS stll shows some rain getting involved.

      https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021012906/099/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

      And precip doesn’t appear to be all that heavy either.

      CMC also has rain involved, but with heavier precip

      https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2021012900/108/prateptype.us_ne.png

      On the other hand the Euro seems to have access of heavier precip to the East.

      https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2021012900/108/prateptype.us_ne.png

      So far I am NOT seeing what I would like to see for a big snow storm. What am I missing? I suppose the potential, but
      everything would have to play out just right and how often does that happen for us?

      We shall see.

      1. I have a strong feeling this event Monday / Tuesday will be a big event . I’ll be watching this one closely as it could have me out in the field for a couple of days if the system gets close enough .

  3. Thanks TK. A tad chilly overnight with some interesting wind gusts. It was 6 at 5:00. Not sure yet if it dropped a bit lower

  4. Temperature has risen here to 9. It’s a heat wave!!

    btw, ocean snow is now showing up on radar.
    How much gets in where is the question.

    Looks like Marshfield will be getting some any moment.

  5. Thank you TK!
    A balmy 4.5 here with wind gusts consistently at or above 20. That will wake you quicker than a cup of coffee. 🙂

  6. Thank you, TK!

    Beautiful day. I live for this. Yes, it’s cold, but it’s an energizing cold.

    Nice-sized snowstorm setting up shop just 150 miles east of us today. If there was an island there, it could get more than a foot of snow. I’m sure the fish will enjoy seeing the blizzard conditions.

  7. Good morning, WHW! Happy Friday!

    First, and most importantly, my deepest condolences, sympathy and prayers to you, TK, your Mom and your family on the passing of your uncle.

    The temp here has gone nowhere in the last three hours. The overnight low was 8.6 and it’s still only 8.8.

    Beautiful full wolf moon this morning!

    Radar starting to look interesting for snow!

    Thanks, TK!

  8. Question for the Mets.

    Consider the following 3 Euro 200 mb charts from 0Z last night

    60 hours

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021012900/060/200wh.conus.png

    72 hours

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021012900/072/200wh.conus.png

    84 hours

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021012900/084/200wh.conus.png

    How does the computer algorithm know that the flow would steadily amplify from zonal to nice and cyclonic. What input goes into that algorithm to produce that output.

    I know when I used to work with mets, they would hand me an atmospheric Physics books loaded with differential equations to model how the atmosphere works. Everything interacts with everything else, but there must be something to trigger the model to know that the winds would be turning????

    I have been coding computers since I was 19 and I am now nearly 74 and I cannot imagine the complexity of these weather computer models.

    Many thanks in advance.

  9. What I find interesting on radar is the echoes are moving NorthWestward quite rapidly towards the coast of Maine.

    What does this mean? To mean, it at least means there is quite a push of moisture moving towards the coast.

  10. Is it just me or does it seem snowstorms here tend to occur overnight vs during the day? Not sure I understand this if there is any truth to it.

  11. TK, sorry about your uncle. All the best for you and your family . And also, thank you for your blog. I can’t say that enough. Down here in Brewster…. Very small flakes but blowing around . Very light dusting so far

  12. Well 12z NAM starting to get into range, not that it’s reliable at 84 hrs but sure looks really good.

      1. Again this doesn’t look like a blockbuster storm and never has. Had it come in today then we would be talking epic. But the opportunity exists for a double digit snow fall

        1. Yes. key word opportunity. We shall see how it plays out.
          I like that the NAM is getting into the mix now.

  13. Thanks TK !

    Yes, some light snow in easternmost Marshfield. Shuts off a few miles inland.

    C-c-c COLD !!!!!!!!!!!

  14. Thanks TK.

    3F and -20 wind chills in Coventry this morning.

    So far I am in Dave’s camp and not terribly impressed for early next week, especially here in CT. This looks like a possible setup where we will have an initial dump of snow further southwest somewhere and another maximum off to the east. Snow totals not too impressive in between. We are essentially seeing 3 different solutions from the GFS, CMC, and Euro but they all seem to screw me one way or the other!

      1. There is till hope on this one. Like you, I am just not there yet.
        GFS is just about at the right number of hours. We’ll see that one shortly.

  15. My opinion is we are too far out on early next week.

    I know that sounds crazy at 96 hrs or so, but, I don´t think any projection is credible until you get to 36 – 48 hrs in the upper air data loss reality of Covid.

    1. It does not I feel the same exact way . Tomorrow’s runs is where we start seeing the trends take place with the models .

  16. Looking at radar trends, it does “appear” that Boston will
    get into at least “some” of the snow. After all TK called
    for a coating to 1 inch in the I-95 belt. We shall see.

  17. Thank you to those of you who chimed in about my uncle after my initial thank you yesterday!

    JPD, to clarify… Yes I remain bullish on the storm potential while remaining very open-minded on the impact.

    The energy that will be responsible for spawning that storm early next week will be coming on shore today at the Pacific Coast so starting with the 18z or especially the 00z guidance we will have much better sampling. This is no different than any other situation where nobody should be talking in anything remotely absolute until we get close enough to be sure. The only absolute so far is that there is a storm threat and that remains the case at this time.

    The GFS: maybe, maybe not.
    That illustrates one possibility, the dumbbell effect combined with multiple centers, that may or may not play out with this.

    The NAM at 84 hours: It’s the NAM at 84 hours. I have no further comment because nothing else needs to be said. 🙂

    I will be paying closer attention to the 18z runs today and especially close attention to the zero… Even the 12z ECMWF is not going to carry a great deal of weight in my thinking.

    My attention today will continue to be focused on that lobe of snow swinging around the back side of that low. This will all be taking place over the next 6 hours from north to south, of course lingering longest and having the most impact on the outer part of Cape Cod. Everybody stay safe if you need to be out in the wind and cold today!

  18. Main axis on the snow burst is southeast of PWM moving southwest. I do think Boston will flake from this.

  19. LOL, 0.1″ of snow for me early next week on the GFS and 1″ on the UKMET. Time to gear up the leaf blower….

  20. I bet Euro comes in juicer but again I agree with TK too soon to have any idea. Need this system to push here and the pacific one to enter.

  21. No big deal to me if Boston misses out on its dusting today. It would be different if it was a few to several inches event like what the Cape will get later.

    1. I would like to see those higher totals the Euro is showing in Boston area but 4-8 inches is a decent snowfall here in CT.

  22. Based on this EURO run it’s a 8-12 inch with some higher totals in eastern SNE. Not a blockbuster clearly but still a decent sized system and far from the outcome.

    1. This Winter, we will have to accept it as a decent snow event.
      I’d like to see it a bigger storm, but not looking like it at the moment. Perhaps with more data coming in the next few days,
      models will get a better handle.

  23. The European model has no advantage, data wise over the GFS. They are both to be taken with the same amount of salt.

    A model with more snow forecast does not automatically make that a better forecast. Either or neither of those scenarios are possible.

    1. Of course. I just can’t get excited just yet. This could be a ho-hum event or a major event. I am just waiting to see which variety we
      end up getting. Any outcome would not surprise me.

  24. Once again, taking into account that it’s the NAM beyond it’s great range, the 18z run is going to be more strung out and a bit further south with the snow area Monday afternoon. Not sure what that would mean beyond that yet. This is just the start of better sampling and in a model that doesn’t generally do well out that far.

  25. Here in Brewster the snow is not heavy. Visibility down to 1/2 mile maybe 3/4 . Heavy dusting that’s all. Wind blowing it around

    1. As I look out at a clear blue sky with a low thin layer of clouds, thinking of snow not that far away fascinates me. Enjoy

    1. See above, you basically took the words out of my mouth. The trend is not our friend. May just book a flight to Tahoe….they are expecting another 1-2 feet on Monday 🙂

  26. I say this every winter, usually multiple times… Norlun/inverted troughs almost always underperform. My rule of thumb is 9 out of 10 times. This is one of the 9. They draw a lot of mystique because of that 1 out of 10 where they go big. But the setup required for that is very precise, and even then it usually doesn’t work out. Today’s setup ain’t it.

    1. I should clarify, underperform versus the “consensus” human/model expectations 24-48 hours ahead of time.

    2. I wrestle with what I think is the hardest “thing” to forecast in this area. I think the inverted trough may be #1 or #2 in my book.

      1. It’s a bear for sure. Because you definitely can’t ignore them, yet you know it’s probably going to be no big deal.

        Of course, you’ve now left us wondering what it’s competitor is for #1 😉

    1. Where’s the beef? Oh what will the 0Z runs show? An open wave 400 Miles SE of Nantucket??????????????????????????????????

      Like I said, I’ll believe it when I see it and so far I ain’t seeing it.

  27. The first GFS run with a little better sampling is rolling now. This doesn’t suddenly mean whatever this run has is the lock. Far far FAR from it. But we’re now entering that period where runs from here on should, in theory, have a better idea of what will really happen (with the 3-day rule still in effect).

    1. At first, I thought that the GFS was looking pretty poorly, but
      as each frame progresses, it does look better. Waiting for a few more frames.

  28. The inverted trough is always recognizable and almost always difficult to actually diagnosis its sensible and substantive outcome. My words yesterday were to head to the outer cape. (I define as Chatham / Orleans to Provincetown) It was the only place I felt confident of some notable activity. It is certainly not something I would ever feel comfortable issuing warnings in advance for.

    The Norlun – model porn for model addicts.

  29. Today’s Climo Data shows a Trace of snow at Logan. I didn’t see a single flake here in the city. Not that I was really expecting more than a dusting anyway. Just an observation more than anything else.

    JPD, did you see any flakes in your neighborhood? I am going to bet NO!
    🙂

  30. JR already has a snowfall map.

    A pretty much widespread 8-14 inches, but he does expect a lot of tweaking as time goes on.

    1. Sounds about right two of the models had 9 inches for Boston to about 8 through the south shore .

  31. We should keep in Mind this is going to be a long duration storm what I saw just it now may be coming In early Monday afternoon , Tuesday day & night with maybe Tuesday being the worse part of it . Couple of the models were just showing around 9” in Boston but way too early for numbers . Now myself who will be out in the trenches working this until it’s all cleaned up thinks anything over 6 inches is a decent storm and we may have a very good shot POSSIBLY at getting that . I do have a feeling just a hunch we see a decent long duration snow event , not a blockbuster but a significant event if it all lines up .

    1. Harvey had 9 but what’s an inch right & I would not even look at numbers now . We have a snow event on the way that’s a good thing for you snow lovers

      1. Harvey didn’t actually have 9. He showed a model that had 9 on the run he used. Big difference there. 🙂

  32. Let’s keep in mind these are snow maps FOUR DAYS IN ADVANCE. My rule of thumb is 48 hours, maybe 60. I’ll be staying with that with my plan to put #’s out on Sunday’s blog update. Numbers now is very risky to do. It sets up all kinds of “Yeah but they said…” references down the road if things don’t pan out just like that. This is why I won’t go with numbers that far in advance. Too many opportunities to change them multiple times and then everyone ends up confused. “Yeah but I thought you said we were gonna get….. ” etc etc etc etc etc.

    1. Safe way to do it . Harvey was just showing two different model numbers . He’s pretty good in my opinion of not hyping it up .

      1. Especially if it’s coming in earlier Monday vs Monday night as I’m seeing this thing is here all day & night Tuesday & winding down Wednesday morning . I’ll be extremely exhausted with this one

      2. I actually think this thing may end up starting a bit late (Monday eve / night) and wrap up about 24 hours later. Not seeing a lingering. It looks to me like the pivot axis movement doesn’t let it hang in here that long, as far as I can tell now…

    2. As you know our local Mets agree but have no choice. They are very good about making sure to stress they are not firm. If people don’t hear that, the fault lies with them.

      That said, knowing what might happen gives folks time to prepare. I’m happier preparing and finding I didn’t need to than not preparing and wishing I had.

      1. Yes indeed. They can do it their way, and I know the media basically is given no choice (or limited choice at best).

        TK has his 48 (sometimes 60) hour rule and he’ll stick by that because it works. 🙂 TK also doesn’t have a boss telling him he has to put #’s out before he’s comfortable doing so. 😉 I don’t envy those guys – at all.

    1. Not all all. I think Feb ends up about average and above average snow. I don’t see any torch in the near term.

    2. I suspect you are seeing the warm up….relative and also far out….suggested for next week. It was fun listening to the speakers on the blue hills program on Wednesday discuss how quickly snow has disappeared this year and in the past.

    3. Next week we see a major plunge of Arctic air into the western and central US (Rockies and Plains) with temperature departures possibly -25 to -35F from normal. This drives mild air northward in the East after the storm departs.

      1. I think Hadi is referring to Mon/Tues. I can see a scenario where the rain/snow line is at leastnear Boston.

  33. GFS/CMC certainly are further north bringing in a bunch of rain. Lot to work clearly still. Curious to see euro and if it follows suite.

    1. Just looking at the UlL and 500 I just don’t see how the gfs is right. It’s missing the mark IMO.

    1. Pete was good at stressing prelim.

      My son’s favorite TV guy: Pete. He loves watching his weathercasts.

  34. Darn the TV nets just bite on each run snd adjust. Could very week be warranted but sure doesn’t elicit confidence if they have to flip back. But certainly the trend is now there to come further NW. Bummer if that’s the case after all this cold.

  35. More rain in the picture closer to the coast at least for now. The Canadian high is slipping north and in turn seems to be making room for a more northerly storm track.

  36. As the storm looks strronger, so does the RAIN!!! Figures.! What did you expect? A snow storm. Things could still change, but we are getting close to event time. I am not surprised at all.

    Let’s see some changes with the 12z runs.

  37. Between Chs. 4, 5 and AccuWeather on WBZ radio, there was no mention whatsoever of rain for Boston. It’s all SNOW SNOW SNOW. Only amounts are in question but I get the impression the tv mets have numbers in mind.

    The trend now is that tv mets use phrases like “6 inches plus” and let it go at that in these early stages.

  38. One thing about the North American continent that really makes it different from, say, Europe, are the dramatic shifts in temperature. And these are a nearly constant feature in our weather. All seasons. It’s not just New England that’s variable.

    While we’ve been having some cold, though not brutal, other parts like Wyoming were in the warm `sector.’ That’s about to change big time. And these aren’t little puny changes like I was accustomed to when I lived in the Netherlands and U.K. No, dramatic yo-yo swings that can be conducive to producing blizzard snows, or obliterating snow in a matter of hours or days. I think next week’s warm up here is going to overshoot. It will feel, albeit briefly, like spring at the end of next week. Meanwhile, other parts of the country will feel like the North Pole.

    As for snow on Monday and Tuesday, I’m always worried if we have to rely on a decaying core of cold (with no real cold air high to replace it) to be a key ingredient in making it snow. Whatever does fall out of the sky won’t be here for long. The snow we got several days ago may turn out to be more than what we’ll get Monday and Tuesday, at least in the coastal areas.

  39. 00z euro looked great for most of the area. All models spitting out a bunch of qpf. Question is does it warm too much, looking the data over I think we end up with the usual, heavier wet snow here inside 95 and fluffier west and north.

    1. That “data” makes more sense. Jacob W. has temps falling throughout Tuesday from about 35 to 31 by late afternoon for Boston.

  40. So digging into the gfs we have our typical rain snow line issues but from what I can tell it mainly stays south of Boston most of the storm.

    1. Interesting. Hope they are correct. Do not like what I am seeing and never did.

      Nam coming out in a few.

      Let’s see what the 12z runs bring.

      If it does not rain in boston, look for cement! Could be power outage issues.

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