21 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – March 3 2021”

  1. Besides a number of small Arabian countries (Bahrein, for example), the 3 top performers in the vaccination race are Israel, the U.K., and the U.S., in that order. The case, hospitalization, and death trajectories of the three share similar features, yet are different as well. U.K. has the best trajectory thus far (everything is pointing in the right direction), Israel the worst. The latter is puzzling, given that its vaccination rate is really high. Its older population’s case, hospitalization, and death numbers are plummeting, but overall case and hospitalizations remain quite elevated.

  2. Thanks Joshua as always for the information you have provided. It is very helpful. What are your thoughts on the three vaccines(Moderna, Pfizer, J&J) in terms of effectiveness? I’m under the mindset that the Moderna vaccine provides the best protection.

  3. I’m waiting for baker. Apparently,we are adding teachers to the list of folks who cannot find vaccine slots available. Of course this flies in the face of his accurate comments a couple of days ago. He said seniors are most at risk so need to be first.

    Well, he has now made it more difficult for that very vulnerable demographic to be vaccinated. So putting kids back in schools is now risking teachers and elderly. Talk about taking a giant step backwards.

    1. I heard on a radio program this morning that teachers (not this state) are refusing to go back into the classroom until EVERY student gets vaccinated. That is not realistic certainly as there will always be some parents that will not allow their child to be vaccinated. No way will there be 100% compliance in any demographic group. I believe most of the medical community accept at least 70% to get to herd immunity if I understand correctly.

      1. I heard teachers which is very reasonable. I didn’t hear students. I’ll look for a link. Tx

        1. Philip I think it is fairfax Ctyin VA which does not surprise me. Fairfax has been reasonable re schools all along….or what i have read.

          Is it reasonable? We require all students to have certain vaccinations before entering public schools. There are exceptions of course. My youngest had a severe reaction. To DPT….the P part. What it amounts to is anti vaxxers put her and others at risk. I believe it is a totally reasonable request since the vaccines are not 100% and also some teachers may not be able to receive vaccines for health reasons.


  4. Joshua…baker said they can get six shots instead of the five out of JJ vials. Does this mean they are cutting Amount of vaccine?

  5. Not only will Texas open up 100% next week and lift their mandatory mask order, Mississippi will soon follow. I believe Florida has been “open” for awhile now.

    Hopefully no consequences will come from this later down the road.

  6. Scott, I’m sorry for the late response. I think all 3 vaccines are really good. The key endpoint is prevention of death and severe illness. All 3 do very well – at least 85% efficacious – on this endpoint. It’s a scientific miracle. The Trump Administration deserves credit for establishing Operation Warp Speed and implementing it. They could have done better on the distribution end, but I’m not going to go overboard in my criticism of that. The Biden Administration has definitely accelerated the pace of vaccinations, together with the states.

    We (the U.S.) may wind up threading the needle. While cases have plateaued, they are not rising (knock on wood) like they were last week. So perhaps that was a data blip. Hospitalizations rose yesterday, but appear to be falling again today (let’s hope). We’re doing a good job in vaccinating our way out of the pandemic. I still have quite a number of concerns. But, it’s important to objectively report the good news.

    In terms of bad news, we’re still reporting between 1.5k and 2k deaths every day. So, say, the last 10 days we’ve had as many deaths as Canada has the entire pandemic!

    Vicki, thank you for posting the links!

    1. Thanks Joshua I really appreciate it! Also thanks Vicki for those links. I will use those if needed to help my Dad schedule.

  7. Recapping today’s main points:

    U.K. continues on a dramatic downward path in terms of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Vaccination rate there is stupendously good.

    U.S. cases are no longer declining, which is a bit worrisome. Today’s data gives pause, as quite a number of states reporting fairly high case numbers. We may wind up with the highest number in several weeks. Hospitalization decline has more or less stalled. Nevertheless, we’re not seeing an increase in the Covid-19 indicators or a significant effect of B.1.1.7 and other variants. Let’s hope vaccinations continue to do their thing and prevent a resurgence.

    Italy, France, Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, and now the Netherlands (to a lesser degree) are in trouble. Rising caseload, increasing hospitalizations (ICU usage). The variants are causing this. Vaccination rate is increasing, but not fast enough.

  8. I do have my concerns with JJ vaccine, through my own research and also talking to people. It seems to have a really high success against people getting hospitalized but there is a 40 to 45% of still getting covid and they have seen even minor covid cases can lead to long term impacts. I been seeing mixed reports on this. Meanwhile the others are around 92% keeping you from getting it at all.

    Also I just got my second dose of the Pfizer vaccine and 5 hours later my arm again feels like a hammer has hit it.

    1. Glad you got your 2nd dose. You should be good to go. Hope your arm feels better and that you don’t get bad side effects.

  9. Clarification: I had said that today’s case numbers are the highest in several weeks. That is NOT true. They’re the highest in 1 week. There were actually higher numbers last week on 2 occasions (probably due to backlog in Texas and other states).

    I had also said that the UK’s decline in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths continues. This IS true. However, apparently that decline has slowed to a crawl. Pesky virus, no doubt. London’s case numbers are rising again. I do hope the Great Barrington Declaration people apologize at a certain point. That group kept saying herd immunity is around the corner. The experts who founded the Declaration started saying this last April and May about Stockholm, London, Madrid, and NYC. Well, they were wrong. Not even with a vaccination rate as high as Britain’s. I believe herd immunity in the case of coronavirus will be when at least 75-80% of the population has had the virus OR been vaccinated. We’re getting there, but still some months away. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-04/london-sees-rise-in-virus-cases-as-national-decline-slows?

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