Friday March 26 2021 Forecast (7:27AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 26-30)

So yesterday worked out close to what was expected – maybe a bit longer to get the clearing to the NH Seacoast, where it arrived mid to late afternoon. Inland areas were the ones that warmed to the upper 60s and lower 70s, as expected, while coastal areas stayed cooler, also as expected. Clouds came back in overnight and we’ve already had a few showers and dowpours travel across parts of the area early this morning. A few more rounds of showers can be expected today as a much weakened form of the activity that caused severe storms / tornadoes in the South yesterday lifts through our region. This is all in advance of low pressure that will pass north of our area tonight and drag a cooler air mass in, but with dry weather, for the start of the weekend. But our weather systems are on the move and we’ll only have half a weekend of good weather as the next low charges in on Sunday with a nice slug of rainfall, but it’s needed rainfall as we’ve been rather dry this month. When that system exits it will be followed by a brief but strong shot of colder air with wind on Monday, reminding us that the Canadian reservoir of cold is not yet empty. But high pressure moves over the region by Tuesday when we’ll have much less wind and moderating temperatures.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy into mid afternoon with episodes of showers including the slight risk of a thunderstorm. Breaking clouds / clearing west to east later in the day. Highs 50-57 Cape Cod & Islands, 58-65 remainder of South Coast and interior southeastern MA, Cape Ann MA, and most of interior RI, 66-73 elsewhere. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W late.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusts 35-45 MPH, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix morning. Sunny with a few high clouds afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts morning, diminishing afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 36-43 evening, may rise slowly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SE.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Patchy fog/drizzle morning. Rain arriving west to east by midday continuing thereafter. Highs 46-53. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog and lingering rain possible evening. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 36-43. Wind shifting to N and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds / intervals of sun. A passing light rain and / or snow shower possible. Highs 42-49. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 31 – APRIL 4)

Quicker-moving pattern – now leaning toward unsettled weather for the last day of March with a system approaching from the west. Early April weather dilemma in 2 parts: 1) Does a cold front coming through on April 1 keep on moving and just turn us breezy & chilly to start the month, or slow down and keep unsettled weather, rain and even some snow, in the area? 2) Do April 3-4 warm up with high pressure to the south, or does a Canadian high pressure area win a battle and keep us on the cooler side and possibly unsettled near the boundary? Not really sure how either of these go yet…

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 5-9)

Obviously very low confidence given the low confidence of the period of time before this, but today’s leaning is for a larger scale blocking pattern pattern with our area on the cooler side of normal but also fairly dry…

41 thoughts on “Friday March 26 2021 Forecast (7:27AM)”

    1. Ugh. I was wondering how schools are doing. My house feels close and it is a fairly open floor plan with an HRV system.

  9. Thanks TK
    Hopefully next Thursday there will be no weather issues for the home openers for the Red Sox and Yankees.

  10. Thanks TK!

    Expecting to hit 80 here in NJ today. Kind of an odd combination with near record warm temps and also 40+mph wind gusts expected.

    Unrelated: the new GFS far outperformed the increasingly hopeless and bumbling Euro regarding this coming Sunday’s storm. No late season snowstorm up north, though they may get a little on the front end. GFS has also done better with the frontal system today. In terms of reliability (at least for North American mid latitude weather) I would put the GFS squarely above the Euro at this point. No small statement considering the history.

    1. For whatever reason, the Euro just hasn’t been good for quite some time now. I especially notice it with it’s 2M temperatures in some areas, which have been downright hideous at times this winter.

      I know that it also has an upgrade coming too, and hopefully it helps.

      1. Yeah, the 2m temps are especially awful. For what it’s worth, NWS receives gridded ECMWF MOS data (which may be available online too, but if it is I don’t know where), and those temperatures are better and at least competitive with, though I wouldn’t say better than, the traditional MAV/MET/MEX MOS.

        That temperature issue combined with the frequent over-amplification of everything make it a real roll of the dice to put much faith in that model at this point for me. I have some theories as to why the performance has fallen off so much, but like you said hopefully future upgrades will help.

  12. Quick peak at the 12z GFS Red Sox Yankees home openers next Thursday get snowed out. The last Yankees home opener to be snowed out was in 2018. Have the Red Sox ever had a home opener snowed out?

    I will post these for entertainment only but that is some heavy snow very close to Boston for first pitch of the Red Sox home opener
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2021032612&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Snowfall which this time of year is over done
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2021032612&fh=159&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    1. The last Red Sox opener to be snowed out might have been in 1982. Not certain though.

      April 6-7, 1982 = 13+”

  14. JpDave the SREF was highlighting that area for possible tornado development. The SREF might have sniffed another tornado potential yet again. The SPC was showing a 2% tornado chance in that area where that possible tornado happened.

    2. Well it “looks” like very possibly tornado damage, but that photo alone is not enough to confirm. We’ll see what the investigation concludes.

      1. Not a definite until the NWS investigates but with that tornado debris signature on the radar as it passed over Middlebury where those photos were taken, I’d be surprised if this one wasn’t confirmed.

      2. Actually just realized that half the pictures and videos in that link above were from Alabama not VT. The ones from VT were not quite as impressive 🙂

  25. TK – Jimmy asked when the last Red Sox home opener was snowed out. I thought perhaps 1982 but according to Kirbet, the opener that year was a week later. Since it was just a guess on my part, I certainly take Kirbet’s word on it.

    Maybe 1997?

    TK, you are usually good at looking up these, if not personal knowledge. 🙂

    There certainly have been no shortage of opening day rainouts as likely will be the case on Thursday. Oh well. 😉

    2. Red Sox Opening Day in 1982 was indeed snowed out…at Comiskey Park in Chicago. As mentioned, the home opener was a few days later.

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