Monday April 26 2021 Forecast (7:16AM)

31 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 26-30)

Plenty of springtime variety is on our weather agenda for these final 5 days of April. We should still get our warm-up, I think, but it will last a fraction of the time that our guidance was trying to tell us just a few days ago. That will come at midweek at least in theory, but before that, we have a blustery Monday and a tranquil Tuesday. Today’s gusty breeze comes courtesy the circulation around the low pressure area that went by us yesterday without much fanfare. Since then, it has started to strengthen as it merged with energy to its north. Now, as a much more formidable storm system its need for air intake is greater, hence the increased wind between it and high pressure to our southwest. The low moves away enough and high pressure edges closer to get rid of the wind or at least reduce it down to a lighter breeze during Tuesday. You’ll notice high clouds starting to move in during the day and much more cloudiness will follow this at night as a warm front moves into the region. There should be enough moisture with this front to result in the possibility of a few rain showers and maybe even a thunderstorm near this boundary. Now I said the warm front will move into the region, but that does not necessarily mean it will move through the region. There’s a distinct possibility that the boundary never quite clears the region and becomes stationary or even drifts back to the southwest, and what it does is crucial to the temperature forecast here. While one can look at the guidance and come up with a forecast that is warmer Wednesday and cooler Thursday, it could very well end up the opposite with the warm up delayed on Wednesday if the boundary struggles to come through, and a warmer Thursday as a slightly stronger wave of low pressure tracks north of our region. Just yesterday, I was thinking that this entire boundary may have pushed far enough south for high pressure to the north to give us a dry Thursday. There are forecasts that have just as much chance of being correct for showery weather Thursday while the scenario I can see happening brings us drier, warmer weather for a brief time that day before the front comes back to the south, and during Friday with wetter weather. Even that timing is far from clear-cut with some guidance slower and other guidance faster. The best way to go in this situation is just to forecast the front to be nearby with unsettled weather, then fine-tune the forecast in subsequent updates, and that’s exactly what I am going to do…

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 54-61. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sunny start then some high clouds filtering the sun at times. Highs 64-71. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few passing rain showers possible and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few rain showers possible. Highs 55-62 southern NH and northern MA, coolest coast, and 63-70 to the south. Wind variable becoming mostly E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A few rain showers possible. Highs 58-65 coast, 66-73 interior. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Becoming mostly cloudy with a better chance of rain showers. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH may shift to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 1-5)

Still not going to be the highest confidence forecast here coming out of an already uncertain end-of-April forecast, but best call at this time is that we see low pressure depart and high pressure approach but an upper low still crossing the region May 1 with a sun/cloud mix and maybe a pop up shower along with breezy and cool conditions, then dry and milder weather May 2. Once again we likely deal with a boundary in the region heading into early next week with uncertain temperature, cloud, and rain threat forecasts, but the potential for unsettled weather definitely there.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 6-10)

Still not a strong indication of any big change, likely a flip floppy outlook period due to uncertainty of where we sit in regards to a boundary that seems to want to hang out with us for a while. While unsettled weather is often possible in this pattern, I like the idea of leaning drier than average with variable temperatures, but no huge temperature departures from normal.

31 thoughts on “Monday April 26 2021 Forecast (7:16AM)”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Interesting that the month of April has been running about
    3 Degrees above average temperature, Yet the ocean temperature had been running 3-4 degree above average and now the ocean temperature is just .93 degrees above average. One would think with above average temps in April that the ocean temperature would maintain or even increase its departure above average.

    Oh well, gotta love New England,

  7. Thanks Tk it is incredibly windy in Boston right now . Ch5 had a dry & sunny map for this upcoming weekend I hope it sticks as I need both days dry . The landscaping trade is really , really busy right now .

        1. Sure is. I was surprised when daughter said it is this weekend. Being a horsey family, racing isn’t really top on any of our lists. But the derby has always be a day my oldest has a party. Not sure if we will this year but maybe outdoors. Last year was first year in many we were not able to.

    2. Did I hear correctly they will have about 45,000 fans in attendance compared to 145,000. They were glad that they could have it .

  10. More “sprinter” temps continue. I’ll be glad when I can put away my winter clothing for the season (or season(s)).

    Some years I can put them away in April, other years, not until May.

      1. Philip I was being tossed around this morning during my 7am rounds , totally strong gusts . A job I was on Saturdays we were killing it for time until we made it out front . There was just enough breeze that was making it difficult & cost me about another 1.5 hours on the job .

        1. Usually March is the windy month but this April has had a number of very windy days, or at least it seems that way.

  12. Boston max sun angle today is 61 degrees above the southern horizon. Nearly 14 hrs of full sun and the high temp may not get to 60F. Max sun angle > high temp under full sun. Too cool, too long in New England. My new goal is some kind of second home/condo, etc further south in the next handful of years. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. April has been more than 3 degrees above average and you still complain. I guess it’s time for Tom to move to Florida. 🙂 🙂

      I think I may never complain again, not even the East wind.

  13. Weather forecast for Churchill Downs for Saturday May 1 looks ab-fab .. a stellar day with wall-to-wall sunshine, a cool breeze and a mild high temp of about 68 or so.

  14. I echo all the comments on the wind today. It was very windy and unpleasantly so at times. Obviously not harshly cold. But still the wind was ferocious during my run.

      1. Correction, 25 years ago, though it wasn’t verified until 2010. Either way, Mt Washington hasn’t held the record for over a decade.

        1. I always thought it kind of funny (ironic) that there were people kind of in an uproar about the possibility that Super Typhoon Paka had broken it on Guam with the 236 MPH gust at Andersen AFB on Dec 16 1997, later found to be a bad reading and discounted, only to eventually learn that the record had already been broken the previous year…….

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