Wednesday April 28 2021 Forecast (7:40AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 28 – MAY 2)

The frontal boundary that I’ve talked about for several days now made its first announcement of arrival with a very nice sunrise on Tuesday morning, and continued to show itself with a fair amount of mid and high level cloudiness yesterday morning and early afternoon, which then thinning out for a very nice latter portion of the day. But overnight, those clouds came back, and this time they brought with them areas of showers, and even some thunder (especially across far southern MA, parts of eastern CT and RI. This was not a surprise as it was evident there would be enough instability for this potential, and it was realized. There are still a few showers in the region early this morning, and a few more may travel through the area during the course of the morning before we see less showers and just a dominant overcast. But as that frontal boundary sits over the region, another couple of low pressure disturbances will move along it as it wavers around. The next disturbance will come through tonight, with another round of showers and the potential for thunder, with that potential highest near the south of I-90. The most pronounced low pressure wave of the series will be the one that moves across the region Thursday night and Friday. Most short range guidance indicates that the center of this low may track just to the north of the WHW forecast area, perhaps across southern VT and central NH into Maine before departing. However even if this happens, the surface front may never really get pulled all the way north before the trailing cold front portion from that final low pressure wave comes through, resulting in an occlusion of the front. The best chance for getting into the warm sector will be closer to the South Coast. Regardless, this system will bring fairly widespread shower activity late Thursday into Friday, before a drier northwesterly air flow arrives. But there will be a price to pay for the trend to drier, and that will be pretty decent shot of cold air from Canada, along with wind. In fact, the air will be cold enough so that when a trough passes by sometime in the morning of May 1, the showers it creates may be in the form of snow in at least parts of the region. The rest of Saturday should be dry with only a minimal risk of a pop up rain shower, but with that gusty wind and sun/cloud mix ongoing. No break Sunday as we’ll likely find ourselves right back in cloudiness and eventually the potential for some wet weather as a warm front approaches.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers this morning and again late-day. Highs 55-62, coolest from the NH Seacoast to Cape Cod. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy rain showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms, especially I-90 southward. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Best chance of a rain shower early morning and late afternoon. Highs 55-60 eastern coastal areas, 60-65 most interior areas, 65-70 possible interior locations south of I-90. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 50-57. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm early. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming NW 10-20 MPH by later in the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing rain or snow shower possible overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A brief rain shower possible. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Highs 52-59. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 3-7)

The region may warm up briefly with a southwesterly air flow on May 3, but the predominant pattern will be cooler with occasional episodes of showers during the balance of the first week of May as a frontal boundary sits in the region once again.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 8-11)

Overall pattern similar, frontal boundary tends to hang nearby with episodes of unsettled weather and variable temperatures averaging not that far from normal.

51 thoughts on “Wednesday April 28 2021 Forecast (7:40AM)”

  5. Thanks, TK…

    A couple rumbles of thunder around 3 am with a quick downpour putting 0.11″ in the bucket.

  8. Thank you, TK

    I woke up to find a txt re lightning. I didn’t sleep well, except apparently when there was thunder 🙁

    1. Yup! I dislike doing it in the spring but they recently replaced the water lines on our street and my front lawn got torn up after I did a full reno last fall (facepalm). I threw some seed down on Sunday and I shouldn’t have to water much this week which is a plus since my town just put in a full ban

  11. Well my daughter confirmed. Everyone other than nana was awakened by some fairly loud thunder around 2:00. That was the part of the night I slept 🙁

    1. Great video, JPD…2Cellos were on tour with Elton John as part of his band a couple of years ago!

  17. Thank you, TK.

    Every small amount of rain counts. Looks like we’ll continue to get increments as the week progresses. April showers living up to its name.

    We’re only a little more than 7 weeks removed from the solstice.

    1. It did turn out to be a very nice day here in the City.

      Made it to 65 here, 64 now. I was outside and it was very pleasant, with a touch of coolness, but warm sun.

      1. I totally underestimated the ability of the atmosphere to dry out between disturbances. Basically this is what I thought would happen tomorrow. I bet tomorrow turns out like I thought today would. 😛

  22. I love New England…

    It’s conceivable that some areas that will see snow showers in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday and have high temperatures near 80F just two days later. 🙂

    Of course, this is not even remotely close to being exclusive to New England, but I love that it can happen here. 🙂

    1. Sorry to be so MIA. Crazy work and I have got some career news coming.

      I think I even missed the April snow event. We got 6″ on my Adirondack chairs, yet some of my grass stayed uncovered and green.

      Also been there on the forecast, brother. Way more than you.

      1. The clouds are coming back in now and my temp is going down gradually, but my goodness some areas were 5-10F warmer than I forecast today. As I told a friend of mine, I don’t think too man people are going to complain it was better than expected. 🙂

          1. They are absolutely HORRENDOUS. That model has become a complete and utter useless failure. I’ve been loosely monitoring it vs. GFS on general placement of features. GFS is winning easily. It has its own set of issues but it’s pretty clear-cut to me that it has the idea sooner in the medium range much of the time right now.

            1. Problem is the acolytes don’t know what to do without it.

              The new GFS I have not figured out its biases and known model errors yet, but it for sure sniffs out the mid range better than the ECMWF. Be it short, mid range, high temps, precip amounts – it’s a daily comedy with the ECMWF. (More to come on that…)

              Funny thing is the last 2 weeks of the old GFS was one of its best 16 day runs .

              1. I had noted that about the old GFS, it was like a desperate plea for not being discontinued….

      2. We are always happy to see you. I’m very excited to hear your career news. When you are ready.

  23. Michael Collins, the astronaut who orbited the moon while Armstrong and Aldrin landed and walked on the moon, has died. He was 90.

    I just tweeted:

    “RIP, Mr. Collins. While you were orbiting the moon in July 1969 you took an unforgettable photograph of our planet. In describing the moment when you took the picture, you said: “As I reached for my Hasselblad, suddenly the Earth popped up over the horizon.” Indeed. What a shot.”

    I’m referring to this picture in the link below, of which many versions exist, including ones without the moon in the foreground. Collins took quite a number of really incredible pictures. On one of the space missions, he apparently lost a Hasselblad camera and it is still orbiting earth.

    For some reason, Collins remains my favorite astronaut of all time.

    https://twitter.com/l1ght3n/status/484887355208134656/photo/1

    1. We always celebrated midsummers eve …born from the years Mac lived in Sweden. I plan to do something this year

  25. Massive supercell moving into San Antonio right now. Not only is the entire cell rotating, radar is indicating a tornado, but also baseball-sized hail. Not what you want to see moving into a fairly large metropolitan area, especially at night.

  27. Watching some of the coverage from KENS Tv the CBS Station from San Antonio the rotation is weakening as the storm is approaching San Antonio. The hail tracker this station is using indicating golf ball size hail.

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