Quick Update – Tuesday AM

141 Comments

7:36AM

Full discussion and new forecast later today.

TUESDAY: Clouding up. Periods of rain by late afternoon. High 45-50. Wind SE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain early, then rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms through late evening, followed by scattered rain showers changing to snow showers from west to east overnight. Temperature rising into the 50s early then dropping to a low 30-35 by dawn. Wind SE 10-20 MPH shifting to SW with gusts up to 30 MPH in the evening, then shifting to W at similar speeds later at night.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. High 35-40. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH possible.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 35.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/mix. Low 25. High 38.

SATURDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 36.

SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

141 thoughts on “Quick Update – Tuesday AM”

    1. As I look over the models this morning, I see nothing but more of the same.

      As an example, how about this 0Z Euro at 192 hours or 1/4:

      http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical500mbSLP192.gif

      A real Porker of a storm as an inside runner, what else. Only hope is for some
      change as it is 192 hours out. Perhaps there won’t even be a storm?

      Other than that, the 06Z GFS shows some clippers with the chance of
      some snow.

      Arghh….I’m afraid we’ll start the new year off the same way the old year
      ended.

      Have a great day all.

      2. And, btw, 06Z GFS does NOT have anything resembling the
        Euro system. It only shows a clipper moving towards us.

        DIVERGENCE again… I’ll take the Euro for now.

        We’ll see how it shakes out as we get closer.

        TK is the GFS still OUT TO LUNCH???

        Thanks

  3. Thanks TK. A stormy night on tap with rain, gusty winds, and embedded thunder. Thunderstorm Index at 1 since I am not expecting severe weather. I would no be surprised if more areas of SNE have a wind advisory. The storm system looks progressive so major flooding does not look like a big issue.
    Old Salty I noticed the same thing UGH. I was hoping this storm would change the pattern but it does not loook to be the case.
    I can’t get excited about big time snows until that NAO goes negative.

    1. JJ…Unfortunately, I think you are correct.

      What do you think of the divergence of the Euro and GFS? Used to be
      they would both show a system, abeit, perhaps differering locations and
      intensities, but this? WEIRD….

    2. Not only that, tonight’s system looks to wipe out any snow base
      the Northern ski areas have worked so hard to build up…UGH!
      I feel for them. Much better that it rained here and at least snowed
      up North. This is moving too far West even for that.

  4. The GFS needs to be taken with buckets load of salt. I remember before that model was good at one time. The EURO I can’t go against what it says since it nailed Irene and the pre Halloween Noreaster. The NAO link you posted has been the most promising in a while. Barry on his blog last night was talking about stratspheric warming which could eventually lead to blocking and a colder and stormier pattern in January.
    Think Snow!!!

    1. re: Stratospherice Warming

      My understanding is that we look at the following temperature charts
      for NA at the 50 MB level.

      Here is current (0Z last night)

      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t50_nh_f00.gif

      Here it is projected to 240 hours.

      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t50_nh_f240.gif

      Where does anyone see the warming that folks have been discussing?
      What Am I missing? TK?

      Many thanks

      1. I guess I see warming in NA south of the Polar region, but I thought we were looking at Polar warming? Just don’t know
        enought about this.

        Thanks

        1. I don’t know if this helps or confuses the issue?????

          Classification and descriptionTypically stratospheric meteorologists classify the vortex breakdown into three categories: major minor and final.

          Sometimes a fourth category, the Canadian warming, is included because of its unique and distinguishing structure and evolution.

          [edit] MajorThese occur when the westerly winds at 60N and 10hPa (geopotential height) reverse, i.e. become easterly (westwards). A complete disruption of the polar vortex is observed and the vortex will either be split into daughter vortices, or displaced from its normal location over the pole.

          According to the World Meteorological Organization’s Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (Mclnturff, 1978): a stratospheric warming can be said to be major if 10 mb or below the latitudinal mean temperature increases poleward from 60 degree latitude and an associated circulation reversal is observed (that is, the prevailing mean westerly winds poleward of 60 latitude are succeeded by mean easterlies in the same area).

          [edit] MinorMinor warmings are similar to major warmings however they are less dramatic, the westerly (eastward) winds are slowed, however do not reverse. Therefore a breakdown of the vortex is never observed.

          Mclnturff states: a stratospheric warming is called minor if a significant temperature increase is observed (that is, at least 25 degrees in a period of week or less) at any stratospheric level in any area of winter time hemisphere. The polar vortex is not broken down and the wind reversal from westerly (eastwards) to easterly (westwards) is less extensive.

          [edit] FinalThe radiative cycle in the stratosphere means that during winter the mean flow is westerly (eastward) and during summer it is easterly (westward). A final warming occurs on this transition, so that the polar vortex winds change direction for the warming, however do not change back until the following winter. This is because the stratosphere has entered the summer easterly (westward) phase. It is final because another warming cannot occur over the summer, so it is the final warming of the current winter.

          [edit] CanadianCanadian warmings occur in early winter in the stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere, typically from mid November to early December. They have no counter part in the southern hemisphere.

  5. Good Morning and Thank you TK

    John started a new poll but I’m not totally clear on what it is. I believe it’s two parts – first, guessing date of first plowable snow and second to guess whether snow totals will be above or below normal for the year.

    Where is the location of the first plowable snow, John? I assume totals are at Logan for second part.

    I have TK at 1/2 and below; rainshine at 1/21 and above and me at 1/23 and below

    Don’t have anyone else

    2. Hi Vicki,
      First plowable snow in Boston – 1/12
      Normal Snowfall totals for the season
      Thanks for taking the time to record our responses.

      1. thanks shotime! and you are welcome

        I don’t seem to have any guesses for you for the other three we have going

        When winter actually begins
        when there is 1 inch of ice on Old Salty’s pond
        Total snow (Logan) for the season

        Should I???

        1. Sure, I’d love to be included in those questions, too.
          Winter will actually begin on on Jan 12
          1 inch of ice on Old Salty’s Pond – Feb 16
          Total Snow for the Season = 46″

          1. Vicki,
            I need to change my total snowfall to 42.2″ so that I’m not above my guess for normal snowfall for the season.

    3. Vicki- 1/16 and above for snow. I had said most areas would need to be affected by this storm. So say everybody gets snow but the cape, that would be the first storm. So plowable storm for most areas. How does that sound.

    4. Vicki for the second part it is how the winter ended up with snowfall. So was it average, below average or above for snow fall. We could use logan for that if you think.

  7. Wind Advisory posted for Boston tonight. Does anyone see that getting upgraded to a Warning? (at least for the Boston area)

    1. The Cape and Islands have a high wind warning. I think more areas of SNE will have a wind advisory but fall short of
      warning criteria. Don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder.

  9. Just checking in: Visiting my sister in Norwich, Vermont (2 hours and 15 minutes from Boston). It’s 20 degrees outside. About 3 inch snow cover, just enough for sledding with my niece and nephews. Definitely a winter scene. Even with all the variables that have worked against winter (positive NAO, SE ridge, etc …) this part of New England feels like winter. Expect sleet and rain this evening (E-SE wind) to change to snow/snow showers overnight. Probably not much accumulation, but still my guess is that there will be continued snow cover. More snow later this week with temperatures at night approaching zero.

    1. My son heads to Killington on Friday for the weekend – does it look to you as if there will be enough snow to keep the slopes open?? Thanks, Joshua!

  10. This is what I have so far for the new poll – did I miss anyone or get any wrong?

    Hadi 1/2/2012 Above
    TK 1/2/2012 Below
    Old Salty 1/11/2012 Below
    Shotime 1/12/2012 Normal
    Rainshine 1/21/2012 Above
    Vicki 1/23/2012 Below
    John 1/16/2102 Above

  12. My wife is loving this, and I was talking to my nephew about how back over 15 yrs ago in April we got 2ft of snow and he totally says hahahaha it doesn’t snow in April, he says it may flurry or coat the grass but it doesn’t snow in April and I got to thinking he hasn’t seen a snowstorm in April here , he’s 14 yrs old, I finally said it usually doesn’t snow in April, it is a anamonoly to snow in April, then I was curious to see the average, and the average snowfall for April here is under an inch, I also told him the last few years it’s been having a tough time snowing in Mar nevermind April, I actually have friends coming up on April 8-15th, I told them temps should be between 55-60 and nights around 40, it was a discussion yesterday.

  13. From Henry at AccuWeather re: the Euro

    4. The Euro model has a great snowstorm for next week. I threw it in the trash! The NAO remains positive and the PNA is going back to neutral, so none of the tele-connections support a major storm along the coast next week. They don’t even support the mega trough coming into the East as well. It’s the same problem the model had with the Christmas storm that was supposed to occur, but instead it turned out mild.

    1. With regards to the NAO today it showed the most promise it has in a while but needs to be taken with a grain of salt
      since that could change. I was wrong with my December prediction that there would be some snowfall. I would be
      shocked if we go all of January with out measurable snowfall. If it gets to close to the end of the month and none
      has happened I will be rooting for the Old Farmers’ Almanac to be right with their prediction of a blizzard
      on the 30-31st of the month.

  14. I needs miracle as well for 1/2 storm!! Lol. Heading up to Maine but expecting rain tonight and tomorrow. Friday forecast has 1-3 maybe 4 inches from the clipper.

    1. I remember when I was 17 yrs old I used to drive up 495 to hit snow north of the pike, and for some reason it just wasn’t the same to chase snow as it was to have it snow in my town, it just wasnt the same, Do u have the same prob hadi?

      1. You need to guess 2nd part of poll. How will winter end for snowfall. Average, below or above. No number just one of those.

  16. Vicki thank you for keeping trac of everyones picks. You must be getting excited to be coming down here. When is that before the new year or after.

    1. John you are welcome – I’m glad I can do it. We will be there around 10:00 Saturday morning. My niece is making the plunge into the ocean down there on Sunday – so far she’s the only one but I’m hoping her boyfriend and my SIL will join her

      Next month I’ll be looking out the window at the ocean while I work – yay 🙂

      1. What a blast, jumping into the ocean’s frigid water! Have a nice warm towel waiting at the shore!!! What beach are you going to?

  17. The latest NAO forecast still looks encouraging today. We just need to have patience here guys. My mid-late January pattern change still on target so far.

    Target date range: January 15-22

  18. By the way- I throw in the towel for my December prediction. I think It was the first December in 4yrs we did not get a snowstorm. I guess I still have a few more days for something to happen, but not counting on it. Heading to the cape for two days. working the rest of the week, I will commute from cape tomorrow and Thursday. If I do not post will catch up on Thursday night. Have a nice day to all.

      1. Yes- tonight and tomorrow night. Last minute thing. I am going back to work tomorrow and will head to work from there. Just waiting for my wife to get home from dentist than were leaving.

    1. Thanks I was going to ask to be reminded of that – I’ll put it on the spreadsheet – although I was thinking this is the same as our guessing the total for the year so not sure we need to track it – am I missing something?

      1. were not guesing the total. There has been some talk on here on snowfall coming in at below for the season. So again It’s just below, average or above. So as Philip noted 42 is average. So if we get over 42 and somebody has above for snow that person or persons would have guessed right.

        2. We won’t see 30 inches for the whole year John, ESP in pembroke, maybe in Worcester but not south and east of Boston and Providence.

          1. None of us know for sure. I think winter has some tricks and we end up above. Just no way it
            stays like this.

  21. btw, 12Z GFS does NOT have the advertised system the 0Z Euro had for
    1/3-1/4. 12Z GFS still has a clipper system moving in a bit earler than that.
    So the GFS is being consistent at least. See what the 12Z Euro has to say.

  24. Alright guys, here’s how my white Christmas effort turned out after about twelve hours of great snowmaking. The temps and dewpoints were just right. (this will be the last video I put you through!)

    The video might give you vertigo–sorry–and yes, that’s my wiffle ball field distance markers and scoreboard in the background….for the kids of course. 🙂

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9QjCeFXhbo

    2. I can only imagine what people think when they drive by your house, as it’s the only lawn that is covered with snow 🙂

  26. Tweet from Joe “Bastard”
    Pattern is changing folks as MJO is leaving phase 5,6 GFS is too fast!!! Major trough in east next week, storm details still not clear

              1. Another look at 192 hours. Still cold enough for snow here and this run is COLDER than 0Z run.
                We just “May” be onto something there. Would love to hear TK’s thoughts on this.

            2. Got it at Weather Underground. Has at
              least the begining of the system SNOW here. I wonder if this is the one?

    1. Just posted the same above. Sure looks much COLDER than 0Z run.
      The Canadian has it as well. I think this pretty much confirms that the GFS
      is OUT TO LUNCH and so is HENRY!!!! LoL

          1. So what are you guys seeing. And do you see any snow here from friday till monday. sure wish I could read the maps.

  28. Yes the 12z EURO is MUCH colder for the storm around 1/4 than the 00z run, even has a 1030 high north of us. It would deliver frigid arctic air behind it. Could January really start out with a bang? It also had a little snow for New Years day.

      1. SCOTT,

        Take a look at this 12Z EURO 850 MB temperature profile
        at 180 hours. Look how it goes all the way down the coast.
        And then keep that in mind for the 192 hours:

        http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=42.32270&lon=-71.08470&zoom=6&type=hyb&units=english&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=850&mm.hour=180&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&ib=1&dd=0&tfk=0&ski=0&stormreports=0

        We may be looking at a potential BLOCK BUSTER here.
        This looks potent and could be quite a snow producer.

        REALLY something to watch!!!

        1. you’d get some pretty good wind too with a 1030 high if that’s how it plays out.

          watch for a hudson river runner. (I’d rather have it o.t.s. or nonexistent if that starts to show up)

          1. That would conform to what has happened all Season Long to date. Here’s hoping for a change.
            One good note: The 0Z run was an inside runner, now it has it as a coastal. BIG DIFFERENCE. Can it maintain that this far out?
            Who knows.

            Still something to watch to be sure.

            1. hear you there. at least we have something to root for.

              this mid-atlantic type winter we’re experiencing is brutal for a snow freak.

    2. I wonder if any of that activity translates northward with the system.
      I don’t think so. Just wondering what others thought???

          1. with Taunton mentioning possible thunderstorms, leads me to believe shearing is not a problem (if you like thunderstorms that is….which is me of course)

  30. Parts of the Mid Atlantic have a 5% chance of tornadoes today. I think any tornadoes down there would be EF0 EF1 but no strong tornaodes EF 3 or higher.
    Thunderstorm Index for us MINOR since I don’t expect severe weather up here.

  31. There is promise next week but I can’t get excited since its way out there. Hopefully will begin 2012 with a bang.
    No warnings inside that tornado watch box.

  32. Euro looks nice, I agree with retrac have to be worried
    About going into the Hudson. But that looks like a beauty right now!! Let’s hops it sticks on the same track. Plenty of cold air!!

  33. Someone will get thunder tonight, but my concern is wind damage especially in SE MA. Regarding the Euro’s depiction of the storm the 1st week of January, we’ve seen it nudge from a track into NY to a track over western New England from yesterday to today. Long way to go, not promising for snowlovers yet though. That, if it were to verify, is a big rainmaker for eastern MA.

    1. I understand with that position, ordinarily we would go that way.
      But, what do you make of the 850MB temperature profile?

      That looks quite impressive and the way it was depicted all the way
      down the coast, would make me think that the cold just might hold in.

      Could you please explain your reasoning behind big rainmaker for the
      unitiated among us. Must be that Western MA track you indicated?

      I’m no expert, but from the 500Mb chart below, It looks like a track
      Over Nantucket or so? OR am I reading this thing totally incorrectly?

      http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro500mbHGHTNA192.gif

      Trying to disagree with the expert and trying to learn at the same time.

      Hope you don’t mind.

      Many thanks

      1. The 2 different site map comparisons may have thrown me here.

        Looking at this site at 216 hours, looks like a track through
        Western NE as you stated.

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&hh=216&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1

        Looking at this MSLP and 850MB temperature chart at
        216 hours lead me to something else:

        http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif

        Look at those temps!!

        I was assuming they would stay cold all the way through.

        I guess I am missing something or made a false assumption?

        Many thanks

      2. Remember, taking the model run as is, and analyzing what it has there. Rain, because of the track too tucked in and the above-normal ocean temps.

        It’s just too far away for me to worry about details. Of more concern is what’s coming through tonight, with potential for some wind issues.

        1. I understand about it being way out there. No Problem.
          Still something to watch, though.

          Also understand about wind concerns tonight. Hopefully, there will be no damaging winds.

          Many thanks

          1. A surface low in northern VT is not likely to be one that has just given major snow to eastern MA.

            1. My assumption is that surface track would end up being further east due to the high up north, but that is a guess.

    1. Well, at least it is forecasted to be dropping during this depicted event, so
      perhaps it will give us a fighting chance. Hey, we have to grasp at something.

    2. Looking more towards the 0Z Euro, which I won’t get to see until tomorrow
      AM some time. If the GFS is going to have it, it would probably be on the 0Z run tonight, rather than this PMs 18Z, but you never know.

  36. vicki put me down for 10 inches either above or below normal i am thinking around average snowfall either below or above.like someone else said on the other blog one storm can make a difference.

  37. An other rain storm for tonight. At least the storm will be effecting us when most plans would be indoors. This week might be the week that saves ski season As most areas have almost no snow . Areas are able to make snow yes but it gets really icy and hard or really soft and wet. this week they will be able to make snow after this storm. In general i see the high temperatures lowering each day and by the beginning of next week it looks like highs could be lucky to reach the low 30s.
    WEEK AHEAD FOR 495 BELT IN NORTHEASTERN MASS.

    tonight: showers early becoming a steady rain over night the lows already occured as i think temps could rise after midnight into the upper 40s
    wednesday sunny temperatures droping into the mid 30s by mid afternoon. highs will be what it is now in the mid 40s.
    wednesday night clear and colder lows in the mid 10s
    thursday increasing clouds highs will be in the low to mid 30s
    thursday night becoming cloudy lows in the mid 20s
    friday mostly cloudy with a chance of morning snow and rain showers
    friday night a chance of evening rain or snow showers
    the holiday weekend. It looks dry but with more clouds than anything there might be a stray rain shower or snow snower highs will be in the low 40s and lows will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. I hope the ice sculptures do not melt.
    monday sunny highs in the upper 30s
    monday night partly cloudy lows in the low 20s and upper 10s
    tuesday more clouds than sun. highs in the low 30s and upper20s

  39. I’m guessing this is it, only 5 days later than the EURO
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20111227%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_300_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=300&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F27%2F2011+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=95&nextImage=yes

  40. MattNoyesNECN Matt Noyes
    I’m assembling explainer of potential Friday night/Saturday storm. It’s a watcher. Lots of energy, WILL produce storm, question is how fast

  41. I hope that is one to create some snowfall. Its anything wintry tonight with a rainorama and gusty wind storm system.

  42. Most of the TV mets and NWS has arctic cold building in for next Tuesday, but is it a true sign of things to come…or just the usual 2-day cold shot followed by warmth ahead of an inside runner? Only Joe Joyce is the outlier with a high of 42 and rain developing.

    For now still thinking mid-late January for serious pattern change. 🙂

    1. Late Afternoon 7-Day Forecasts for next Tuesday (1/3/12):

      Jeremy Reimer (Ch.7) = Clear, cold, high 22
      Kevin Lemanowicz (Ch.25) =Clear, cold, high 30
      NWS = Clear, cold, high 34
      Joe Joyce (Ch. 4) = Rain developing, high 42
      Harvey Leonard (Ch.5) = N/A

  43. I think its another brief shot of chilly air. Most have them have come on the weekends since the Pre Halloween Noreaster. This will be during the work week.

  44. The EURO ended with strong -AO, we’ll see what happens after that, especially if the NAO can come down from space. If not then it will not last.

  45. Good evening.
    The GFS and European Model differ on the amplification of the pattern next week. The GFS is much more progressive and unimpressive compared to the amped up European Model showing a huge storm. This huge storm could bring more rain or perhaps a major snow storm. With the lack of blocking it is going to be tough for this to become a major snow storm for I-95 Corridor, but the potential is there.
    Which One Is Right?
    The pre Christmas non event was correctly predicted because the pattern did not support the amped up PNA ridge the models were showing. This resulted in no phase and a non event for the most part. Now we are seeing the Euro go nuts with a PNA ridge. Are we seeing the GFS progressive bias? Or are we seeing the Euro tease us again with hopes of a deep Eastern trough?
    I am siding with the European
    I believe a major storm will form across the Eastern US. The track of this storm is uncertain, but with the lack of blocking I am sure we will see a myriad of solutions from the upcoming model runs the next few days. The GFS will come around to the European thinking as it picks up on some key features.
    SOI
    The SOI values are crashing. The MJO was stuck in phase 4-5 for a while and we are seeing SOI values peaking at around 50!!This peak value occurred on Christmas Day. So maybe some Christmas magic post Christmas, Since the peak at around 50 values continue to decrease and if they continue to decrease we should see this major amplification in the pattern out West.
    MJO
    The MJO is currently in Phase 5 as we see the enhancement of convection over the South China Sea. There is a Tropical Cyclone as a result of the westerly sfc winds behind the enhanced convection. The enhanced upper level divergence and warm SST behind this signal resulted in a Tropical Cyclone. CPC mentions that the high frequency in Tropical variability could be leading to the models progressing the MJO signal to the east too quickly. Is this a big deal? Yes, but in terms of our amplification… not really.
    The longer range forecast of whether or not we go back into the COD or head into Phase 8 is not as important as one might think for this event/amplification. The eastward progress has great agreement amongst models and sat observations. This should allow a continued free fall in SOI values supporting a huge amplification to the pattern that the European shows. It would be an added bonus if we can get into phase 8 helping support a change to the pattern.

    December 27, 2011 at 7:05 pm | Reply | Report comment
    From WeatherWizard.

  46. New blog in place.

    Still a few interruptions in access possible this evening. Thanks for your patience!

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