U.S. cases are in what is called “exponential decline” the past two weeks. This is very good news. We’re down to 23,000 (7-day moving average) cases per day, from 30k just last week. As I’ve mentioned if we can get it below 10,000 per day and preferably 5,000/day by July we’ll be in reasonable shape heading into the fall. I think this is a feasible goal.
Europe is also seeing signs of “exponential decline,” but it is not widespread. That is, some nations are experiencing rapid decline while others are seeing moderate to only slight decrease.
Unfortunately, the U.K. is experiencing an uptick, not only in cases, but also hospitalizations. It’s a very modest uptick, but I’m a little concerned about this for multiple reasons.
India had a 20% decrease in cases – official count – last week, but is still at or above 200,000/day, with test positivity around 10%, and deaths at 3,500/day. South America has had a fairly slight decline in cases. Meanwhile a number of countries that had been managing Covid very well are seeing significant increases. This includes Taiwan, Laos, Vietnam, Japan, Cambodia, Mongolia, and Thailand.
Ultimately, no-one is safe until everyone is. This means that for the world to truly return to normal the global vaccine inequity must be addressed.
The vaccination rate in the U.S. is 50%+ and in MA is 70%. Complete herd immunity is near.
Positivity rate down to 0.86. Crush the virus before September so we can have a regular school year.
Agree. And right now in many regions we’re crushing it. Keep an eye on the sun belt states where vaccination rates are low. We saw the spike last June. If we do not see a spike there this June we’re golden. If we do, even just a modest spike, the virus will have found a home to stay in for the summer.
There appears to be some evidence of longer lasting immunity from vaccines than originally thought. A lot of this research is modeled – after all we don’t have real-world data yet. But if immunity is long-lasting that would prevent any wave from developing this fall.
For real-world data in a highly vaccinated nation, keep an eye on Britain. They’re still doing quite well. But the B.1.6172 `Indian’ variant is now dominant (took only about 2 months) and is causing a slight rise in cases and hospitalizations. Many patients are unvaccinated, but a sizable number are vaccinated. So, caution is the operative word. The virus will `try’ anything to survive, and could include forming multiple mutations, with as a base the `successful’ B.1.6172 variant.
This graph is surprising to say the least, suggesting that excess mortality rates have been similar in the U.S., Brazil, and India, throughout the pandemic. https://twitter.com/fibke/status/1397526793687556099
I’m wondering if all are being honest. I know for some areas even in MA the numbers are questionable. I’d like to think the US is the most honest of the three but we are at a time in this country that I never thought I’d see …so who knows
Regarding your first query about the data from the U.S., India, and Brazil, I’m very confident the U.S. data on Covid-related deaths is more accurate. Here’s the thing, excess mortality is what the graphs are about; not strictly a reflection of deaths reported as being attributed to Covid. India has been under-reporting Covid deaths. But they have reported all or most deaths (just labeling many as “fever” or “pneumonia” when in reality they were Covid-related). And yet you see that all 3 nations wind up with similar numbers of excess deaths. Why? Well, all three suffered equally badly from Covid. And Covid is the most important reason for the excess mortality, whether the deaths were reported as Covid-related or not.
Thank Joshua. That makes sense to me!
C-19 for 5-27 is ready.
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Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
U.S. cases are in what is called “exponential decline” the past two weeks. This is very good news. We’re down to 23,000 (7-day moving average) cases per day, from 30k just last week. As I’ve mentioned if we can get it below 10,000 per day and preferably 5,000/day by July we’ll be in reasonable shape heading into the fall. I think this is a feasible goal.
Europe is also seeing signs of “exponential decline,” but it is not widespread. That is, some nations are experiencing rapid decline while others are seeing moderate to only slight decrease.
Unfortunately, the U.K. is experiencing an uptick, not only in cases, but also hospitalizations. It’s a very modest uptick, but I’m a little concerned about this for multiple reasons.
India had a 20% decrease in cases – official count – last week, but is still at or above 200,000/day, with test positivity around 10%, and deaths at 3,500/day. South America has had a fairly slight decline in cases. Meanwhile a number of countries that had been managing Covid very well are seeing significant increases. This includes Taiwan, Laos, Vietnam, Japan, Cambodia, Mongolia, and Thailand.
Ultimately, no-one is safe until everyone is. This means that for the world to truly return to normal the global vaccine inequity must be addressed.
The vaccination rate in the U.S. is 50%+ and in MA is 70%. Complete herd immunity is near.
Positivity rate down to 0.86. Crush the virus before September so we can have a regular school year.
Agree. And right now in many regions we’re crushing it. Keep an eye on the sun belt states where vaccination rates are low. We saw the spike last June. If we do not see a spike there this June we’re golden. If we do, even just a modest spike, the virus will have found a home to stay in for the summer.
There appears to be some evidence of longer lasting immunity from vaccines than originally thought. A lot of this research is modeled – after all we don’t have real-world data yet. But if immunity is long-lasting that would prevent any wave from developing this fall.
For real-world data in a highly vaccinated nation, keep an eye on Britain. They’re still doing quite well. But the B.1.6172 `Indian’ variant is now dominant (took only about 2 months) and is causing a slight rise in cases and hospitalizations. Many patients are unvaccinated, but a sizable number are vaccinated. So, caution is the operative word. The virus will `try’ anything to survive, and could include forming multiple mutations, with as a base the `successful’ B.1.6172 variant.
This graph is surprising to say the least, suggesting that excess mortality rates have been similar in the U.S., Brazil, and India, throughout the pandemic. https://twitter.com/fibke/status/1397526793687556099
I’m wondering if all are being honest. I know for some areas even in MA the numbers are questionable. I’d like to think the US is the most honest of the three but we are at a time in this country that I never thought I’d see …so who knows
https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2021/05/26/immunity-to-the-coronavirus-may-persist-for-years-scientists-find/?p1=hp_secondary
Joshua…others…would love your thoughts on this. I’ll repeat in am as it is late
https://www.history.com/news/1918-pandemic-public-health-campaigns
Will do, tomorrow.
Regarding your first query about the data from the U.S., India, and Brazil, I’m very confident the U.S. data on Covid-related deaths is more accurate. Here’s the thing, excess mortality is what the graphs are about; not strictly a reflection of deaths reported as being attributed to Covid. India has been under-reporting Covid deaths. But they have reported all or most deaths (just labeling many as “fever” or “pneumonia” when in reality they were Covid-related). And yet you see that all 3 nations wind up with similar numbers of excess deaths. Why? Well, all three suffered equally badly from Covid. And Covid is the most important reason for the excess mortality, whether the deaths were reported as Covid-related or not.
Thank Joshua. That makes sense to me!
C-19 for 5-27 is ready.