Thursday May 27 2021 Forecast (7:13AM)

47 Comments

DAYS 1-6 (MAY 27-31)

Suddenly we’re in one of those periods of time where forecast confidence takes a hit, even in the short term. It happens, and there’s not much a forecaster can do about it, other than re-evaluate and try again each update! Yes we already had some uncertainty about the upcoming weekend with conflicting guidance which then suddenly reversed roles and now look a bit more in agreement. But just yesterday, last evening / night specifically, many of us, myself included, were expecting a broken line of showers and storms, heaviest to the northwest, struggling to touch any areas south of Boston. What we got was a much more widespread rainfall event for a good portion of the region. Yes, some areas still were missed, but just here at home, for example, while our thunderstorms were not the type you’re going to remember, we ended up with several hours of beneficial rainfall, which might have made the forecast look bad, but was beneficial for our deficit and cleaning out the air and washing off surfaces of the abundant pollen that had been about. And now we move on, looking ahead through the Memorial Day Weekend, which today looks a little less “nice” than I had been leaning. The forecast idea is basically the same today and tomorrow, with high pressure moving in (though staying north) today with drying, still warm but no longer hot air, and generally nice weather. Much cooler air arrives for Friday and may be around for most of if not the entire Memorial Day Weekend while a string of low pressure areas are close enough to plague the region with occasional wet weather. Even at this point the details are still somewhat fuzzy, but the forecast below will reflect a little “less dry” outlook than what it had been doing previously… And who knows, this may look different yet again tomorrow. I’m not as confident as I’d like to be right now!

TODAY: Some early clouds, then mostly sunny. Drying air. Highs 77-84. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain by late in the day. Highs 62-69. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with period of rain and drizzle in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain especially eastern and southern areas. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain especially eastern and southern areas. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain especially eastern and southern areas. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the morning. Highs 60-67. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 1-5)

The first few days of June are expected to feature a return to seasonable warmth and slightly higher humidity as a couple disturbances move through the region, but with limited chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. This may be followed by a shot of cooler air from Canada at the end of the period but very low confidence here.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 6-10)

Low confidence but indications of a weak boundary in the region, cool Canadian air to the north, warmer and more humid air to the south. Not sure which will dominate just yet, but usually this set up leads to occasionally showery weather.

47 thoughts on “Thursday May 27 2021 Forecast (7:13AM)”

  2. Ended up with 0.34 inch here. Extended period of thunder and lightening, but nothing even remotely severe. A couple of tines experienced this rolling thunder that went on and on for what seemed forever. 20-30 seconds or so. Cool.

  3. Good morning and thank you, TK. Very decent shot of rain here, thankfully.

    JpD, how is your wife doing today?

  4. Thanks TK !

    Yes, pleasantly surprised that some rain made it to the south shore. Looking at Plymouth´s ob, they got .14 last night and a couple hundredths more this morning.

    Sharp clearing line just came through.

  5. 0.28 at Logan yesterday evening. Loud thunder and vivid lightning, much more than expected.

  7. Ocean 104.7 FM, from Cape Cod, did a traffic report this morning. 1 mile backup leading up to the Sagamore Bridge to get onto Cape Cod currently.

    People are smartly getting today in. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  8. I was curious, Sat-Sun-Mon Logan temps for Memorial Day Weekend last 5 years.

    2020: 72F, 54F, 55F
    2019: 71F, 89F, 76F
    2018: 89F, 61F, 59F
    2017: 61F, 67F, 54F
    2016: 92F, 77F, 76F

  9. Thank you, TK.

    0.32 in the rain gauge. Much needed, as will be the showers and possibly steady rain this weekend. Though it’s sometimes called the unofficial beginning of summer, I still have always thought of Memorial Day weekend as being a spring event, with a wide variety of weather associated with it. In this respect, it is very different from July 4th, which is usually a can’t miss (in terms of weather) summer event. Also, I’d put Labor Day weekend more in the camp of a summer weekend in terms of weather than Memorial Day.

    1. Agree 100%
      Your rain gauge and mine were very similar.
      You had .32 and we had .34 I give a thumbs up.

  10. Good morning and thank you, TK. We had .70 wonderful rain overnight and lots of fun lightning.

    Memorial Day to me has always been iffy. It is still a month before summer and has also been used as the planting date for a last frost. That says to me that it is not far away from cool weather as a norm. And I am not backing that with numbers, just thoughts.

    1. Growing up in marshfield extremely close to the beach Memorial Day weekend is when all the cottages usually started getting ready for the summer & when I got to see all of my summer friends again . I will never forget my summer memories on 9th road beach & many more memories. My goal is to one summer rent a cottage for a week . I wish my parents never sold .

  11. JPD, my heart sank when I read your post. I had such high hopes when you said Mrs OS did better just following the vaccine. Please tell her we are all thinking of her and hoping the reaction is short lived

    1. Hope so. Thanks. I was encouraged last evening, but things went downhill. My wife was sick for 2 weeks with the 1st dose and our daughter was sick for 2 weeks after the 2nd dose. Powerful crap we are putting in our bodies, but the alternative ain’t so good.

      My wife likes to say that she has been injected with little robots.
      I call them nanites, which in a sense they are.

  13. The Netherlands has had a very long period of wet and cool (sometimes just cold) weather. The culprit: A barrage of Atlantic lows and the prevailing (dominant) southwesterly). That is about to change as a Scandinavian high sets up shop, acting as a block to the Atlantic lows, which may reach Ireland and the west of England but no further. Really nice weekend on tap in the Netherlands (sunny and around 70F) and it’s expected that the nice weather and a further warming trend will continue after that (though the weather service – KNMI – does warn, as TK does, of uncertainty in the long-range forecast). Note, just like in winter once the more or less stationary highs set up shop to the north of the Netherlands they tend to stick around for a while. They don’t experience the variability we do with highs that sink to our south and east; so start out cool and end up hot and humid.

  14. Thanks, TK…

    Dave, my prayers, too, for Mrs. OS. I am told hydration makes a difference with the second dose.

    Bristol County was in a warned area last night. Dave, we also had a long duration thunder that shook the house. 0.30″ in the bucket.

  15. Sure has dried out.

    Logan DP down to 54. Dps well to N&W are in the 30s.
    Temps in Central NY state are only in the mid 50s.

    1. Probably not much, cumulatively. I suspect generally under an inch over that period of days.

  18. JPD, sorry that your wife isn’t feeling well. Hope she gets better very soon. I imagine last night’s humidity didn’t help matters.

    You probably don’t want to hear this, but I heard that Dr. Fauci believes that those vaccinated will require booster shots later on. You and her doctor may need to make decisions about that. From what I can tell though, those boosters are still months away.

  19. 12z NAM and GFS spitting out 2.5 – 3+ inches of rain for the weekend as a whole.

    Fairly consistent on 1st system Friday – Saturday Morning, some subtle differences on 2nd system as to where heaviest rain would be.

  20. As projected, I would trade next week´s potential unsettled pattern for the weekend´s unsettled pattern.

    next week´s pattern, as currently projected has a better chance of being milder and somewhat humid.

    I´m not annoyed with showers and a temp of 65F and a dewpoint of 65F. Thats tolerable.

    I get frustrated with rain or drizzle and 54F with a dewpoint of 53F and a raw to your bones NE wind.

  21. This projected pattern, in the day 6 to 10 window, as projected could cumulatively also drop a lot of rain over areas that are trained by waves of showers and storms.

    Potential moderate to high humidity pattern.

    Interested to see if that holds during the next few days of model runs as days 6 through 10 become a days 3 to 5 outlook.

    1. The people who expect full mid summer beach weather in late May every year will be very disappointed. 😉

      Every year I see these posts on social media about how much the weather sucks or the water is too cold. Yeah, if you go to the coast in the spring in New England, you have to expect it to be… pretty much like it is every single spring. 😉

  23. Looks like after being consistently wrong for years, Beverly’s thermometer finally just broke this afternoon. 😉

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