You Blinked!

This is an edit/update of the previous blog entry.

2:39AM

Dry weather will be back today, with any snow showers hanging out in the Mountains far west and north of Boston as colder air moves in. Temperatures will fall during the day.

Expected a cold and dry Thursday as high pressure dominates.

By Friday, warmer air will try to move back in, and riding up over the cold air it will generate some snow and rain showers in the region. By late in the day and at night, a stronger impulse is expected to cross the region and may produce a general period of mixed precipitation to snow, with just enough cold air in place. By later Saturday, New Year’s Eve, mostly dry weather is expected but a gusty breeze and chilly air is likely. It will not be frigid, however, as some New Year’s Eves have been around these parts.

A milder day is expected for the first day of 2012.

The latest guidance for next week is in a little more agreement and is leaning a little more away from a big storm on the East Coast. But there are many days to monitor what goes on next week.

Forecast details…

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Temperature falling slowly through the 40s into the 30s by late afternoon. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH, shifting to NW by late in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 15-20. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill falling below 10 at times.

THURSDAY: Sunny. High 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Steadier mix or snow at night. Low 18. High 38.

SATURDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Snow/mix early. PM snow showers. Low 29. High 37.

SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly sunny. PM rain showers. Low 29. High 44.

MONDAY – NEW YEAR’S HOLIDAY OBSERVED: Partly sunny. PM snow showers. Low 25. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 31.

74 thoughts on “You Blinked!”

  1. Hi TK, want to get some clarification on New Year’s Eve. I rarely go out that night and I won’t if there is any precip. However, you said two things.

    1) By later Saturday, New Year’s Eve, mostly dry weather….
    2) SATURDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Snow/mix early. PM snow showers.

    Like I said, not going anywhere if #2 is the likely scenario. Would like your input on which is most likely. Thanks.

    1. Longshot I’ll second your question. I saw that you said you expect accumulating snow into Saturday morning but not a blockbuster, TK. How much accumulating snow are you thinking? I’m wondering if we should try to head to the south shore Friday night if it’s going to be 6-10 by morning.

      Thank you 🙂

  2. Thanks TK ! Albany, NY at 40F but Rochester, NY points west in the 20 s. Few hrs this AM where its not too cold.

    It really looks like a stretch here of normal or below normal days tempwise, starting tomorrow. Midnight’s 50s will make today much above normal.

  3. Charlie I do not see a rain or snowstorm for new years. It looks a weak high builds in after snow showers this weekend.

  4. NAO as of this morning still looking on schedule to go negative mid-January…maybe even a bit earlier. We will see what happens.

    As of the Friday night/early Saturday system, only TK is calling for steady snow…not that TK is calling for a major storm by any means, but it is a lot more than what local mets and NWS is going for this time period and for the entire weekend for that matter.

    TK, what do you see at this time that others don’t?

      1. OS…I do see what you mean, but if I am reading it correctly, most members “trend” negative at the very least. Maybe I am totally wrong, but it is the most encouraging I’ve seen so far, relatively speaking. Regardless, “patience” is the key. I would be somewhat shocked though to have to wait until the very end of January for that pattern change.

        1. Actually, I thought that it looked better yesterday.
          Oh well, we have to take what we get, even if we don’t
          like it. Time will tell.

    1. High pressure a little further south than depicted. If the low center is N of the MA/NH border then forget it.

      1. It looks to be close. Here’s hoping that little clipper
        passes just South of our area and gets a bit more juiced up
        than currently forecast.

        Over the course of my many years, I have seen clippers
        “Usually” pass farther North than forecasted. Of course
        there were always those few times when they passed farther South. Let us hope this is one of those times. LOL

  5. What a surprise!!!

    The 0Z Euro has the previously forecasted event way OTS and MUCH weaker than
    yesterday’s 12Z run. Life in the model world forecasting that far in advance.
    So, unless it reappears, another disappointment. I wonder if we aren’t destined
    for disappointment the entire Winter Season????

  6. Are the ones going negative more reliable ensembles I wonder or the ones going positive more reliable? Its not the best but compared to what we have been seeing there is some hope.
    Any snow at this point looks Minor Friday into the weekend. (Under 4 inches)

    1. Yes, but we have seen this before, only to have the forecast go right back
      to positive.

      Not looking like much for this weekend, unless something out of the ordinary
      were to happen.

      Imo, If we get an inch or 2 we’d be lucky. But hey, maybe that little clipper
      decides to get energized in our area???

  7. Yeah nothing to get excited about in terms of snowfall for the weekend. Then a shot of cold air for Tuesday where it will feel like winter with highs in the 20s.

    1. Oh good news for not much on the weekend. We are anxious to get there and settle in and we have some coming from Amherst area which is a long enough drive as is 🙂 Thank you!

    1. I’ve been hoping for a inch, just to whiten the ground and we haven’t been close except for the October Storm.

      1. my son-in-law just said he really hates it when winter isn’t winter – and he’s not a snow lover. If it’s frustrating non-snow loving people, that’s pretty bad !

    1. What I find intriguing is what lies down the road. Will winter come in all at once, with a blockbuster storm with endless snowy days ’til April or even into April? Or will winter arrive with just a clipper with snow squalls and bitterly cold temps. Or, will winter just squeeze in with a few minor snowstorms that barely amount to anything? Or will there be no measurable snow 🙁 That would be hard to believe. And if we get a relatively snowless winter – what kind of spring and summer would we have? Sorry for the far look ahead, talking about summer! I have a feeling we are going to have a hot and dry summer – or more severe storms. Just gut feelings. I know – let’s just concentrate on the winter.

      1. 🙂

        Rainshine, it will be interesting to see where this goes and how this winter will relate to the spring and summer. If we do have a mild and snowless winter, to me it lessens the joy and pleasure we all feel when we get that first spring day. Windy SW winds and temps spiking up to the 60’s for the first time.

        1. Coastal – I totally agree with you! Last winter it was so nice to see all the different shades of green and to smell spring in the air – and to feel the nice warmth in the air after a cold winter. That is what makes New England so great – changing of the seasons. That is why I love New England! 🙂

  8. Looking over the Stratosphere outlook, the warming appears to subside at hour 240, which means it may be a sort of thing that comes in phases. Just hope we can squeeze out a snow storm before we lose it.

  9. 00z EURO going with a fish storm it seems, which can happen with a +NAO. Also the PNA appears to be going negative, which isn’t good if you want a snow storm.

  10. Re: This weekend’s clipper.

    There seems to be some divergence between the GFS and NAM.
    GFS tracks it across Norther NE, obviously going North of us
    and keeping us in the warm sector without much precip. NAM has it
    farther South going almost over us. We would need that system to track
    South of us. I’d wager right now that does NOT happen. We shall see.

  11. Postive NAO and Negative PNA equals no big snows. I think the EURO has the right idea with a fish storm given the positive NAO
    Old Salty I think its a safe wager that system will not track south of us.

  12. I have reason to believe that the end of the 00z EURO is trash, that upper level system over the pacific at hour 240 was not supported by the ensemble guidance. So if you take that out, you get a stronger ridge in the west, thus a deeper trough in the east. Also that PV was moving SE toward the Canadian maritime, which allows heights to build over Greenland. We are heading into a very interesting pattern.

    1. Scott,
      Hope you are correct. We’ll see for sure.
      If you are correct, then the 12Z Euro should have the system back again.

      We’ll know in about 2 hours or a bit less.

  13. The end of the 12z GFS really warms up Alaska…
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20111228%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_372_500_vort_ht.gif&fcast=372&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&cycle=12%2F28%2F2011+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

  14. As a snow lover I’m upset, but I’m just about to a point were if we’re going into mid Jan and it still doesn’t look good then I’ll b rooting for a snowless record to break records, I’m sure the ski areas are hurting, I had a friend that worked at wachusett and he said if there wasn’t snow in our backyards it was very slow.

    1. Charlie,

      I’m with you. If we make it past a certain point with no snow, let’s go for the records!! Besides, I don’t mind saving money on my heating bills!!!

  15. From Elliot Abrams:

    Wednesday 9 a.m.

    Yesterday, the European Model showed a major storm on the Middle Atlantic coast at the 192-hour time step (middle of next week). Typically, models will show all kind of different solutions that far in advance, with a narrowing of the gap between solutions as the time horizon shortens. Last night’s run of the model for the exact same time showed a storm well out to sea, and a northwesterly flow of cold air affecting all of the Northeast. I think there is little point of picking a winner from the two choices, because they are only two of many possible outcomes. It reminds of a tidy definition of risk: more things can happen than will happen

  16. Thanks for the link even though I did not like what it had to say.
    12Z EURO I think is a fish storm and we just get a brief shot of chillier weather.

    1. Indeed it is. Did you look at the 500MB chart. WOW! That is a very near
      miss! Clearly things could change as this is still a ways out there. Oh btw, this
      run looks like it moved it up a day and a half to 2 days.

  17. Leaving for Dallas in mid jan for 4 days, I enjoy it down there, there’s just so much to do and when I lived there and there were tons of New Englanders that have moved there, I still am fighting it, my wife wants to go back, she says it’s just to quiet of a metro area for her taste and she’s from the Midwest farms, I never thought I would be in such a dilemma, bc I keep thinking it will just pass but it’s not. I like the Boston area but it also is a bit to quiet for me, what I mean by quiet for us is we can’t go out for a glass of wine and a decent dinner when our of work at 9-10 at night, when we lived 30 miles outside city we could go to some nice places at 10pm and the vibe is livley, I see her points but I’m hoping it will pass 🙂 sorry it had nothing to do with weather 🙂

  18. Ok, let’s look at something else that the Euro does not seem to have.
    This is from the 12Z Canadian:

    Look at this clipper at 168 hours:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&hh=168&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1

    Now look at it at 180 hours. Notice how the movement was SoutEast!

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&hh=180&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1

    Now look at the 300MB jet at 180 hours:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=V300&hh=180&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=V300&hh2=144&fixhh=1

    Is it possible that this could BOMB out as it head out South of us??

    Food for thought. Grasping at straws. etc. etc. etc.

  19. Let’s give the models some time on next week’s storm threat, as they are pretty much guessing at this point being so far out and most of the energy is not yet on the data-rich part of the model grids.

    1. I hear you. What do you think of the Canadian outlined above?
      Wouldn’t that be wild?

      Obviously, we’ll have to wait. Clearly things could change some.
      We’ve seen storms come and go before.

      Could get interesting next week as we WILL have some cold air in place
      for a change.

      1. Keep an eye on it, who really knows at this point what will happen next week, lots of changes will be going on.
        Yes for a change we will have plenty of cold air around, but does it stick around?

        1. I think the models are having a problem handling all of this. Perhaps as we get closer they’ll have a better idea
          of what will really happen. I wish I were more patient, but I’m really not. lol

          1. For sure, this is definitely the case for the long range GFS, which has been all over the place. My bit of worry is that the stratosphere warming is only temporary, but maybe it will come in waves. As TK said above, it’s the atmospheric waiting game.

  20. BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
    Snow nuts in the East are so desperate for snow, I have a feeling they will be Tebowing in the snow if it ever comes. I just point skyward

  21. When I start rooting for the Farmers’ Almanac to be right when they are predicting snow then I am desperate. If we don’t get any big snows by the end of January I will be rooting for the Old Farmers’ Almanac to be right about their blizzard prediction on the 30-31st and The Farmers’ Almanac of heavy wet snow of 12 plus inches between the 20th-23rd of February.
    If by some miracle those happen we still might have below normal snowfall but it won’t be the least snowiest winter on record.

  22. Now that I have resigned myself to the fact that my long range predictions this winter have been worth less than a slug on the floor of an old phone booth, I’ll move on, and say that I think the overall pattern as we head into January will be colder, relative to normal, than December, probably close to seasonable for January by the time it’s over, and drier than normal. The SE ridge will return after a brief respite, but this time with a stronger northern jet driving shortwaves across the northern US, and tapping cold air to the north, we’ll see variable temperatures in New England, up and down on a frequent basis, in the weeks ahead. Not even going to venture a guess into February & March yet.

    Updating the blog.

  23. Vicki – I am sorry I did not respond earlier. Killington should be fine the remainder of this week. Not a substantial natural base, although it is snowing today. My guess is that today’s snowfall there will total around 3-4 inches (some heavy snowsqualls, even here in Norwich – 45 minutes ago a major 9-car accident on Route 89 near Grantham, NH, by the way). It will certainly be cold enough for the snow machines the rest of this week. I’m driving my daughter to the Appalachian Mountain Club’s Highland Center at Bretton Woods, where she will be working this winter. She’s also hoping for a true winter. I guess it’s in the family genes.

  24. We r now beginning to gain a minute of daylight for the next week and then we start gaining roughly 2 min in 3 wks.

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