Friday June 18 2021 Forecast (7:36AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 18-22)

The high pressure area that gave us nice weather during the last couple days will continue to treat us today, but its center has shifted to the Middle Atlantic States and this will turn the wind southwesterly here, warming us up with most places (except the South Coast) getting into the 80s for highs under the June sun, which is just a couple days away from reaching its pinnacle in our sky. The summer solstice will occur at 11:31 p.m. Sunday night, June 20, at the very end of the weekend. But what about the weather over the weekend? Well, while the sun does shine today you’ll notice an increase in high cloudiness at times, and by the end of the day the sun, at least in parts of the region, may be setting behind a deck of thicker clouds. This is the signal of a warm front approaching the region from low pressure moving into southeastern Canada. As that low treks along, it will first drag that warm front across New England overnight and early Saturday morning, with lots of clouds and some scattered areas of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm in a few locations. We’ll bust into the warm and more humid air on the other side of that front during Saturday morning, and any time during the day and into at least early Saturday night, until a cold front passes through, we can see some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. It definitely won’t rain everywhere and where it does rain it definitely won’t rain a great percentage of the time, but if you have outdoor plans keep an eye on the sky (or a reliable radar app) and have a plan should a shower or storm visit your location. Once the front clears the region, while Sunday will be nearly as warm as Saturday, it will be less humid as a drier air mass moves in, but for a short stay. The high pressure area that delivers that brief drying air will slide offshore by Monday and the humidity, along with some heat, will come right back. And there is still a question to answer regarding Tuesday, but it’s day 5 in the forecast so we have time. That question: Do the remains of tropical low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico make it all the way to New England to add some heavy rainfall to the mix ahead of an approaching cold front on Tuesday? Still not sure. The guidance has trended a bit south and some of it a bet less emphatic with this feature the last 24 hours so we’ll see where it goes with this today. It’s likely to be a very small feature in relation to many lows we track, so it won’t be easy to pin it down either way. We at least get the threat of showers/storms at some point that day from the approaching / passing front, details dependent on frontal timing, with the wildcard of whether or not that low has any impact on the situation that day well, so for now, day 5’s wording will be general with fine-tuning to come in future updates…

TODAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 80-87, cooler South Coast. Dew point middle 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm overnight. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers early morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Highs 83-90. Dew point rising to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with scattered showers/thunderstorms evening. Clearing but patchy fog forming at lower elevations overnight. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible mainly interior locations then a chance of showers evening-night. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 80-87, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point near 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 23-27)

High pressure from Canada moves in via the Great Lakes with fair, mild, dry weather early in this period, then the high slides to and eventually off the Mid Atlantic Coast with increased warmth and humidity, and eventually some shower and thunderstorm opportunities, later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

Northward displacement of the jet stream becomes more pronounced during these days with early summer warmth, somewhat higher humidity at times, and a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with passing disturbances.

31 thoughts on “Friday June 18 2021 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  10. After a lengthy period of dry, sunny weather, things changed yesterday across the British Isles and now in the low countries. The set-up for the next week or so is a classic summer pattern in those parts: Prevailing southwesterly (often a stiff breeze – Beaufort 4 or 5), temps around 70F, some sun at times but also passing light rain showers at times, with the chance of rain at any given point in time around 50%. You get used to it. But, it was always somewhat of a surprise when I came home during the summer and would have the (vast) majority of days be rain-free in the Boston area. Sometimes we don’t know how lucky we are.

    1. I would say that New England has the best overall climate in the continental U.S. in spite of its chilly springs.

  14. Isolated strong thunderstorm at best tomorrow is my thinking. When the SPC updates the outlook tomorrow in about an hour I think the marginal risk will still be there.

  19. Taking a quick peak at today´s model runs ……..

    The cool down next Wed/Thurs …… potentially highs in the 70s and quite low dewpoints, that may be the last deep summer polar air push for some time.

    I am not implying a run of 90F + temps and 65F + dewpoints for all of July and August.

    I am saying subsequent cool front passages after next Wed and Thurs, the air behind them may not be as refreshing as next Wed and Thurs. Not earth shattering news, as this is climatologically reasonable leaving June and entering July.

  20. Glad the Red Sox – Royals game is a night game.

    I believe its 96F with a 70F dewpoint currently there.

    1. I was in KC for the Sox/Royals series 4 years ago this weekend. The airport in KC is 30 miles from the stadium complex, so that’s not exactly the best obs to use.

      KLXT (Lee’s Summit) is considerably closer to the stadium complex than KMCI or KMKC are.

  21. Thanks, TK!

    Raising my glass to you, Vicki! Happy Birthday! I hope it’s been a special and beautiful day.

    Raising my glass a second time to the end of a bizarre and surreal school year and the start of “sum-mah” vacation. It wasn’t pretty nor perfect, but we got the job done.

    I finished my 38th year as a teacher when the bell rang this afternoon at 1:50.

    Tom. I hope and pray you’re back in the classroom again when we return again in August! 🙂

    It’s currently 96º in Kauffman Stadium for tonight’s Sox-Royals game according to AccuWeather.

    1. Congrats Captain ! 38 years, wow !! That is amazing and awesome !

      Yes, I will be at teacher orientation Mon Aug 30th and back in my old classroom for the first day of school Tues Aug 31st. And, as you can appreciate, probably in my classroom a couple weeks before Aug 30th finding everything, LOL.

    2. Thank you, Captain it really has been a special day. Sunday all three of Macs and mine will be here with families and and all six grands

      I wish you a summer vacation full of fun

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