Friday June 25 2021 Forecast (7:43AM)

47 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 25-29)

It’s “warm front Friday”! While you were (probably) sleeping, clouds came up from the south during the night with areas of showers and drizzle. This will continue through midday today before we start to see some breaks in the clouds from south to north across the region as the front edges northward. This is the surface announcement of the door opening to a classic summer pattern, and rather early in the summer too. A Bermuda High will anchor itself off the US East Coast this weekend into next week and we’ll find ourselves in the classic hot & humid set-up starting Saturday and going at least through the beginning of next week. Initially, when this weekend and early next week were several days away, the medium range guidance was trying to bring a front into the region. This is not going to happen during this period, so the guidance was over-forecasting the ability of that front to get close to and get into the region – a reminder not to put too much stock in model forecast details more than a few days in advance. If we do see any rainfall after today, it would be from air mass pop-up showers and thunderstorms, though the risk of that in any one area during the period from Saturday through Tuesday is fairly low.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle with scattered showers this morning. Highs 75-82, cooler in some coastal locations. Dew point rising into lower 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clouds gradually break for more sun. Areas of fog until mid morning. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point middle 60s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 65-72, warmest urban areas. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patches of fog forming interior lower elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 87-94, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog lower elevations. Lows 66-73. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 30– JULY 4)

There are conflicts between various medium range models at this time. Example: One model tends to keep a more of the same regime going with a gradual step-down in the heat as a weakening front brings some showers/storms to the region as it slowly moves through the dissipates. Another model keeps the heat around through July 1 then brings a stronger front through followed by Canadian high pressure with still warm but not nearly as hot and humid weather for the Independence Day Weekend. Given previous “misguided guidance”, we’ll split the difference for now and basically go with the heat hanging around at first, then lessening somewhat, but at least some chance of isolated to scattered showers/storms into mid period before a weekend drying trend for July 3-4. Tweaks will be needed.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 5-9)

Low confidence forecast. Looking for a weak jet stream to the north and a regional pattern of moderate humidity, warm air, and limited shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

47 thoughts on “Friday June 25 2021 Forecast (7:43AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Since I dob’t want HHH, it will probably stick around ALL next week.

  3. Models still showing intense heat for the Pacific NW, however,
    they have backed off some from the extreme numbers previously being displayed. It will be interesting to see just how high they go.

    I saw some Weather forecasts for Seattle topping out at 98. Still very hot, but not the 107 or whatever was being spit out by models.

    Portland will go higher the Seattle for sure, but the extreme previously? I doubt it. We shall see.

    1. Hmmm, perhaps models are back on.

      6Z GFS has Seattle for 106 on Mon and 109 on Tues
      Portland 114 on Mon and 113 on Tues.

        1. Thank you. Looks to be brutal out there no matter how you slice it, even if the extremes are not realized.

          1. Sure does. The discussion of the ridge is fascinating. It’ll be interesting to see if it ends up breaking a record

  4. Thanks TK.

    I sure understand that models struggle with anything several days out. But I’m enjoying watching the Mets with regard to NW use model guidance several days out as guidance rather than just discounting it. You made a similar comment with regard to its use a few days ago.

  6. Thanks TK. A lot of folks don’t have air conditioning in the Pacific northwest and it is going to be a tough stretch for those folks.

    2. Do you remember a couple years ago I posted a photo of my Half Christmas coffee on this date?

  10. Getting a later start today, the low clouds are starting to burn off.

    Yesterday was amazing. Sunny, my guess is 73-77F for highs and nearly 100% sun. It chilled off fast during the evening, then held steady overnight. Wednesday was nice too, I think it struggled to make 70F.

    Visibilities have been great, nice to stare at the distant mountains. There has been some people around, but not packed.

    Thankfully, our camper has A/C, as I see the forecast of warmer/hotter weather returning.

  11. Thanks TK! Hope everyone’s doing well 🙂

    Been on a bit of a hiatus for awhile but still lurking around, busy with work/life stuff but it’s all good.

    Really enjoyed the weather the past couple days, but we are definitely heading for some HHH Bermuda High action over the next week. Some indications that the July 4 weekend could be quite unsettled, but hopefully not. Plenty of time to watch that.

    1. Would not surprise me as isn’t that how it goes . It’s a big weekend & nice weather would help the local businesses trying to recover as folks would be out & about spending money .

    3. Howdy WxWatcher!

      It will take quite a bit to convince me that the Northeast will be overly unsettled on the weekend of July 3 & 4.

      Consistency over a few runs on the ECMWF has not meant much of late. GFS goes back and forth but I’m noticing this model, while having done OK in the cooler months, is struggling in the warmer ones. Adjustments needed…

      1. Oh yes, very tough this time of year to get “washout” type days. I do think there will be a stretch somewhere from about 6/30 to 7/5 where we get 2 or 3 days with pretty widespread showers/storms, but there will be plenty of dry times.

    1. Those are all possible because we probably don’t get a frontal passage before Friday next week (based on current idea).

  15. Euro might be connecting with reality.

    Projected high of 98 at Seattle on Monday (108 at Tacoma and 102 at Everett)
    Portland, however is coming in at 113

    2. Good, I know from reading this is expected or surely hoped for 😉 but yikes still above average and following a heat wave.

    3. The guidance has been trending (overall) downward with those high temp forecasts the last couple days. It’s pretty well known as pointed out recently but a couple mets that the GFS is having significant high temp issues (having forecast high temps somewhere around 10 to 15 degrees too high when it gets hot) for an episode of hot weather in the Mid Atlantic late in the spring.

      I think the GFS (and to some degree – no pun intended the ECMWF) have been overdoing this one. Still, it will be an impressive heat spell for the PNW – no two ways about that.

      1. Absolutely.The NW Mets have been saying the same all along. Some model temps are showing the potential To come down, but that may well still leave them in a very dangerous range. While they chuckle at some of the temps the GFS is throwing out, their concern is more that there will be heat in an area that isn’t used to it and has just experienced a Heat wave.

        I can also see they are fascinated by the possibility of that ridge setting records. I don’t pretend to totally understand that but they have done an amazing job explaining. Scott Sistek has done an exceptional job explaining in general What makes this potential unique.

        The concern for melt at several summits is sure real also.

        https://twitter.com/mcharchenko/status/1408450631421992960?s=21

        https://twitter.com/scottseattlewx/status/1408500228714483713?s=21

    1. Nice. I’ll take underachievement in summer any day of the week, at least in terms of temperature.

  17. Half Christmas, indeed, as Vicki mentioned. The Christmas in July specials that channels like HSN do, are two weeks away. I could do without the overcommercialization of an otherwise splendid holiday.

    Of course, in places like New Zealand it’s winter, dark, and some celebrate festivals of lights now, including Christmas, as they’re having their shortest day of the year. https://twitter.com/DocPNW/status/1406874194185359362

    Right on cue, the snow has begun to fall in earnest at Hotham ski resort in Australia (tallest peak there is about as high as Mt. Washington). https://www.mthotham.com.au/on-mountain/conditions/snow-weather

    1. Hallmark has started its Christmas in July. I for one love it. To me we need more of the christmas feeling in this country..,,in this world. Heck my oldest was thinking it was time to put her tree up…..mostly tongue in cheek but not all

  18. 5 straight days of intense heat (90+) and horrible dewpoints into the 70s it appears now. This upcoming week will be the absolute worst we have seen around here in a number of years. 🙁

    Was that 1983 we had that horrific summer?

    2. The dew points should be below 70 much of the time (see my outlook above). One or two days “around 70” I think. Modest to significant heat (88-95) for high temps most of the stretch. This week will not be the absolute worst in years – mark my words. Much of the 2018 summer would surpass what we’re about to see, especially when it comes to dew point temps. FYI: The NWS’s point forecast never has Boston reaching 70 for dew point during the next 6 days. The top # is 69 on their forecast string.

      1983 was a very hot and long summer, but there were a lot of “dry heat” days that summer as well.

        1. Even the latter trimester can be difficult in hot and humid conditions. Not that I’ve experienced it directly. But, I remember when my son was born in June of 1990. Prior to his arrival on the 24th it was very hot in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, unusually so and for about 2 weeks. Of course we had no AC or even a fan. My ex-wife found it quite difficult to handle.

          1. You bet. Son was first trimester in heat. Girls were last in summer. Both were interesting and I would not have traded a minute for anything

  19. How will the upcoming stretch of high temps measure up against the stretch earlier this month?

    1. Similar.
      Media’s (anchors & headline writers mostly) making it sound like end of world heat. Won’t be.

Comments are closed.