Saturday June 26 2021 Forecast (8:53AM)

60 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 26-30)

Classic summertime in New England pattern over the next five days….. During the weekend we climb the ladder into the heat and humidity. Saturday starts out on the cloudy side with both low level moisture producing low cloudiness and higher level moisture and warming air producing a lot of high cloudiness above that, but the limited or no sun start will progress to partial sun as the day goes on, though South Coast areas may never really break out into much if any sun at all during the day. Cloudiness of both high and low but especially the low variety dominates again tonight. When we get to Sunday, the ability to break those clouds up improves and the amount of high cloudiness coming across the sky from the west will also lessen. Net result: More sunshine Sunday than Saturday. Also, Sunday’s heat and humidity will be more noticeable than Saturday’s. Then it’s the full heat for Monday through Wednesday to finish off June. Monday will have only the minimal chance of isolated air mass showers or thunderstorms, and I think this even remote chance will be absent Tuesday with some potential drying of the air mass and a more westerly wind, not always well-forecast by guidance. Wednesday, a frontal boundary from the northwest that will be held back for several days finally tries to make a run into this area, and while it will likely fail in its effort to fully get into and across the region, in its weakening form it can still be a better trigger for showers and thunderstorms, so those will be in Wednesday’s forecast, with room for adjustment as we get closer to it…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Fog patches at times South Coast. Highs 77-82 South Coast, 83-88 elsewhere. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SSW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog South Coast. Lows 63-70. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Fog patches South Coast early morning. Highs 85-92, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches in sheltered locations. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 90-97, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point falling to lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 86-93. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 1-5)

Using guidance loosely and applying anticipated model error for early July outlook. Frontal boundary that approaches the region on the final day of June washes out over the region July 1 & 2 with each day running the chance of a couple showers and thunderstorms forming in the region, hottest day July 1, not as hot July 2, humidity high to moderate levels. Stronger front pushes through early July 3 from a not-well-forecast stronger high from Canada which clears the region for the balance of the holiday weekend with lower humidity but still warm for the balance of July 3-4. Heat comes back a little bit July 5 as high pressure shifts to the south. Confidence is not high on this outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 6-10)

Still a low confidence forecast here too but overall idea is typical summertime pattern with weak jet stream to the north and a regional pattern of moderate humidity, warm air, and limited shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

60 thoughts on “Saturday June 26 2021 Forecast (8:53AM)”

  1. Few showers on radar over Long Island and south of the Vineyard, all moving northeastward. Wouldn’t be surprised if a few clip the South Coast and/or the Islands.

  3. Here is a tune by Donovan from my college days way back in the 60s.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6bZeZ6mEIc

    I used to really love this tune. It kind of grows on you after listening a couple of times. And NO, I did not use drugs in College.

    btw, has anyone here ever seen a mongoose?

    I have on the Caribbean island of St. Martin.

    1. Great song. In addition to the song, Jungle Book was one of the not many books I’d pick up and read on my own when quite young.

    2. That tune is among an extensive collection of his that I listened to on his recent birthday.

        1. I do indeed. Love all of his stuff. He’s more than just “Sunshine Superman” & “Mellow Yellow” .. Great tunes, don’t get me wrong. But lots of good stuff by him.

  7. Near-miss with the showers just off Nantucket. It may have sprinkled on the sand of Low Beach on the SE corner of the island. 😉

          1. Another interesting possibility mentioned

            Seattle…
            Number of 100+ days 1894-present 3
            POSSIBLE number of 100+ upcoming: 3

            Verification didn’t really seem to be the priority….more, the significance

  10. 3km NAM
    SEA 108/110
    TCM 107/107
    PDX 109/111

    12km NAM
    SEA 105/109
    TCM 108/109
    PDX 108/110

    5km WRF
    SEA 104/113
    TCM 108/117
    PDX 111/115

  11. 80 Sutton. 69 DP. Gusts into low 20s

    Temp not here but from a nearby wunder station. I’m too lazy to get off deck and check mine.

  12. The GFS has been dining on waffles.
    Now it matches the scenario I described above in my DAY 6-10 outlook.

  13. dew pint now 70 at Logan and Norwood
    71 at Bedford and 72 at Beverly.

    So much for no 70s dew points.

    1. Too much southerly air flow (low clouds are an indicator). When the wind starts to veer around toward west through tomorrow the dew point will actually come down. Tuesday may end up being our lowest dew point day of the next 5.

      FWIW, NWS’s dew point forecast string is still flat in the upper 60s for the next several days, so they must think this is also just temporary.

  14. Thank you, TK.

    Though it’s not hot outside (yet) the dew point is high and so it feels quite warm and soupy. I like soup (especially in winter), but not soupy.

      1. I never could understand why clam chowder is so popular around here in the summer months. Now, ice cream I can enjoy in the dead of winter. Any season. 🙂

        For me, soup is a winter/early spring/late fall treat.

  15. Anyone know what allergens are in the air? My grandkids are struggling. Not so much for me, but I’m taking steroids for gout so suspect that may be the only positive they have 🙂

  16. Few showers popping up now in Southern RI and also in Northeastern CT. While I didn’t expect it, I can’t say that I’m surprised.

    2. That air is juiced. DP’s already a little higher than I thought too. I can feel it today and I’m just sitting still at the moment.

  17. Clam chowder in all 4 seasons. It’s the one soup I will have, even on a very hot summer day. I make my own version of it, which my daughter really likes. So much so that whenever I visited her – in Minnesota, Edinburgh, London, Amsterdam – she requested that I bring cans of clams with me so I could make clam chowder for her and her friends. Clams are very hard to find – canned or otherwise – in Europe. And, in Europe clam chowder is unheard of, so it was always a special treat for my daughter’s European friends.

    1. Makes me hungry. Would you share your recipe and I understand it it is special and you would rather not share. I loved my moms but have yet to make it so it tastes like my memory wants to believe.

      Hot dogs were my father in laws request when they were on home leave. Mac often packed some into his golf bag when he traveled to Roma to visit.

    2. I love New England clam chowder. 🙂

      I’m not sure what that stuff they have from Manhattan is. They call it clam chowder, but it’s really clam veggie soup. 😛

      1. So true.

        Vicki, here’s my clam chowder, which isn’t so much special as it is a variation on the theme of other clam chowder recipes (I do like vegetables, so I add a couple and tend to vary, even throwing in some carrot sometimes. You’ll also notice this is a fairly thick chowder; you may add more liquid stock or half and half as desired):

        4 small (regular size) cans chopped clams (don’t throw out the juice, which you’ll add towards the end)
        3 medium-sized potatoes, peeled and diced (boil separately; when almost done add to pot with chowder that you’ve been preparing)
        2 stalks of celery, chopped
        1 bunch of scallions, finely chopped
        4 slices bacon, diced
        2 tablespoons butter
        3 tablespoons flour
        1 and a half cup vegetable stock
        1 bay leaf
        2 cloves garlic, minced or squeezed
        1 large onion, finely chopped (almost minced)
        1 teaspoon thyme;
        2 tablespoons chopped parsley (add as garnish at the end)
        1 and a half cup half and half*
        Salt and freshly ground black pepper, to taste

  19. Given that crazy thermometer at Logan (+2-3 degrees), Boston could get to record territory as well.

    record with an *asterisk 😉

    Either way a 5-day heat wave is assured, even based on the “actual” temps, unfortunately.

    1. A. Nothing is assured. Boston may not hit 90 tomorrow. Thunderstorms could come through on Thursday early enough to prevent a 90-degree reading, suddenly, you’re down to 3 days.

      B. Boston records for the next several days
      6/27 96-2007
      6/28 97-1991
      6/29 99-1933
      6/30 95-1945
      7/1 98-1963/1872

      There isn’t a single model that predicts any of those records being tied, let alone broken.

    2. I feel like I have to repeat myself but you cannot assure anything out 5 days.

      I agree that they may not reach 90 tomorrow. They probably get there Monday and Tuesday, and they likely get there Wednesday, but that’s getting out into the territory where there are still surprises that can happen. And Thursday is far from a lock.

      I also agree that I don’t think any records are going to fall at Boston. The records are pretty far up there.

    1. “Seattle (Sea-Tac airport) surpassed the daily record for today by reaching 91° at 1216 PM. The morning low of 69 shattered the previous record high minimum of 67. This morning was the 2nd warmest of all-time.
      Next up: a run at the all-time June max temp record of 96. “

      96 of course fell also

  22. I now see TEAC at an even 100 per MEso West. Sometimes there
    can be a 1 degree difference due to round.

    Worse case it is 99 and not 100.

    1. Official obs at 2:53PM Local time.

      Seattle, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, WA
      (KSEA) 47.44472N 122.31361W
      2 Day History

      A Few Clouds
      98.0 °F
      Last Updated: Jun 26 2021, 2:53 pm PDT
      Sat, 26 Jun 2021 14:53:00 -0700
      Weather: A Few Clouds
      Temperature: 98.0 °F (36.7 °C)
      Dewpoint: 63.0 °F (17.2 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 32 %
      Heat Index: 100 F (38 C)
      Wind: Northwest at 10.4 MPH (9 KT)
      Visibility: 10.00 miles
      MSL Pressure: 1014.9 mb
      Altimeter: 29.97 in Hg

      I believe it has gone up since then.

  23. 3:53 PM Obs, Seattle-Tacoma Airport 101!!!

    Seattle, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, WA
    (KSEA) 47.44472N 122.31361W
    2 Day History

    Fair
    101.0 °F
    Last Updated: Jun 26 2021, 3:53 pm PDT
    Sat, 26 Jun 2021 15:53:00 -0700
    Weather: Fair
    Temperature: 101.0 °F (38.3 °C)
    Dewpoint: 62.1 °F (16.7 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 28 %
    Heat Index: 103 F (39 C)
    Wind: Northwest at 6.9 MPH (6 KT)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1014.4 mb
    Altimeter: 29.95 in Hg

  24. Portland, OR 104.

    Portland, Portland International Airport, OR
    (KPDX) 45.59578N 122.60917W
    2 Day History

    Fair
    104.0 °F
    Last Updated: Jun 26 2021, 3:53 pm PDT
    Sat, 26 Jun 2021 15:53:00 -0700
    Weather: Fair
    Temperature: 104.0 °F (40.0 °C)
    Dewpoint: 63.0 °F (17.2 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 26 %
    Heat Index: 107 F (42 C)
    Wind: West at 10.4 MPH (9 KT)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1011.3 mb
    Altimeter: 29.87 in Hg

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