Monday June 28 2021 Forecast (7:21AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

The story will be the hot and humid weather for the first 3 days of this week, which are also the final 3 days of June. Please keep in mind as we get to the end of this month and you start hearing data via media for Boston, that the thermometer where official records are kept has been reading 2 degrees too high for the entire month, so the average will also be skewed by 2 degrees in that direction. It’ll be billed as the hottest June on record there, yet likely wasn’t. A warm June? Yes, most certainly. But we also had some cool days in there too. Bottom line: Not a brutal June, but a hot stretch early in the month and another hot stretch to end it. The Bermuda High will continue to do its thing into Wednesday and our only chance of seeing any rainfall before then will be from isolated air mass showers and thunderstorms that have a remote chance of popping up in a couple locations mainly well west of Boston today and a very slightly better chance of doing it tomorrow anywhere, but mostly west and north of a Boston-Providence line. These will be the vast exception and far from the rule, but if one does occur where you are, you can experience a torrential downpour along with briefly gusty wind and of course lightning and thunder, so if you are out and about, just know that even though quite low the chance, it’s not a 0% chance. On Wednesday, the shower and thunderstorm chance will increase, and the timing and placement of activity is going to be highly dependent on the location and movement of a cold front moving in from the northwest. It will take a couple days to nail down the timing and the day-of to start focusing on specific threats. Either way, Wednesday will still be a hot and humid day before any activity moves in. There’s been a difference of opinion between myself and much of the guidance for how the second half of this week plays out, but here are my current ideas on it. The cold front that approaches later Wednesday gets into southern New England by Thursday but starts to wash-out or fall apart and a second front drops down from the northwest later Thursday through early Friday. This brings the opportunity for a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms Thursday, with still very warm and humid air in place, and as a little wave of low pressure moves along the front as it sits just to the south on Friday, some additional showers may occur, along with temperatures that will then be much cooler than they were for the first few days of the week. Before Friday is over, we may see a distinct dry-out and end to the shower threat from north to south. This has weekend implications, but we’ll get to that in the next sections. First, the details for the next 5…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Very slight risk of a late-day shower or thunderstorm well west of Boston. Highs 88-95. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms mainly northwest of a Boston-Providence line. Highs 90-97, cooler South Coast. Dew point falling to middle 60s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point middle 60s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 87-94, cooler South Coast.. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of evening showers. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89, cooler South Coast.. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog forming. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming N to NE.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, especially CT, RI, southern MA. Highs 68-75. Dew point near 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 3-7)

There’s been a disagreement between the guidance and myself about the weekend of July 3-4, with many runs painting a far more gloomy & doomy scenario than I believe we are going to see. Call it a meteorological hunch, but the performance of said guidance about 5 and 6 days out for the weekend we just had was less than stellar, with models foretelling of a front moving in with showers and thunderstorms, when in reality we saw the build-in of summer heat and humidity with no such shower & storm activity. This time, I feel that Canadian high pressure is still being under-forecast by the guidance in general, and that we’ll see a stronger push from it resulting in a generally dry Saturday-Sunday period, coolest Saturday with a northeasterly air flow, milder Sunday with more of variable wind evolving into a regional land breeze from the west as the high pressure area sinks to the south. Am I highly confident of this play-out? No, not yet. So please follow the updates through the week, because it’s entirely possible that the guidance can make my hunch look like a joke. Time will tell… Looking into early next week (July 5-7), expect the return of summer warmth and some humidity, along with the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms especially later in the period as a disturbance moves in.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 8-12)

A “weaker” version of our current pattern tries to set-up with high pressure to the south, another high residing somewhere in eastern Canada, and a boundary between. It’s many days away but my general idea is that we’re on the warm/muggy side of the boundary through mid period and then the boundary moves into or even south of the region again by late in the period. Once again plenty of time to evaluate the weather during this time, as it’s often harder to pick out distinctive medium range patterns in summer than it is during the other seasons.

76 thoughts on “Monday June 28 2021 Forecast (7:21AM)”

  3. Thank you TK!
    Great write up this morning and I truly hope that your hunch is correct for the weekend of the 4th.

  8. As we get closer to the weekend, I’ll be asking about prospects for the Berkshires. Hoping for not too much humidity!

  9. Thanks TK
    It sounds like there is some light at the tunnel late week if your not a fan of the heat and humidity.

    1. Sorry,Lebonon NH is also reporting 90
      But Bedford, Norwood, Beverly and Lawrence all reporting 88

  13. Seattle is up to 82 at 7:19 AM local time.

    Today maybe destined for a new all time record high. We shall see. Depends if a marine influence is introduced or not.

  14. Thanks, TK…

    85º at 6 bells. Middleborough High’s baseball team has a South Sectional final this afternoon at 4 pm against Medfield in the Boro. It will be a warm one! I am their PA announcer.

    TD # 4 has been named off the South Carolina coast.

    Soon to be, “Oh, Danny Boy. The pipes, pipes are calling.”?

      1. This time they can be the “non tropical low pressure swirl naming center”. The thunderstorms are hundreds of miles away.

        This is not a TD. But SAK and I nailed exactly what would happen here. Ah well. That was easy.

          1. Some people have suggested that there may be money reasons behind it.

            At this point, that’s as plausible and explanation as any…

            If it is true, it’s really sad that truth gets cast aside for money.

        2. A message I sent to TK yesterday afternoon on Facebook:

          “Oh look, the thing off the SE that was only 10/20 for development is suddenly orange and 50/50. It’ll be a TS before landfall tomorrow night. Count on it”

  15. Seattle is up to 90 as of 7:53 AM local time with a NE
    wind at 14 mph. IF that wind direction holds, Seattle will top
    110.

    I can’t imagine what those people are going through out there.

    Unfortunately, I think we will see some deaths out there today or tonight.

    1. Sadly, heat, the #1 weather killer, gets ignored more than it should.

      Facts and level headed information delivery would save lives.

  16. Local WHW area heat indices are approaching 100 already.

    dps in the area are running 72-73 degrees with temps 88-91

  18. If folks want to cool off this week, head to Nantucket. Late yesterday evening I saw a time lapse of forecast temperatures there and it only gets into the low to mid 70s right through Wednesday.

    1. Yep…
      This is definitely the reason we put in the phrases about it being cooler at the South Coast. The islands are part of that region. 🙂

  19. I am truly enjoying the no nonsense, level headed, easy to follow delivery from the Mets I’m following in the Pacific Northwest. Although the enormity of this event is not missed …these are folks of course who have an innate fascination for all weather as do all here…..the focus is on analyzing and educating.

    Only 44% of homes in that area have AC. Mercer Island was 108 last night. Mac’s family has lifelong friends living there. This is serious whether records are broken or not. Fortunately, things will hopefully come back to more reasonable weather for the area overnight.

    Closer to home, I’m also reading from our Mets who are also focused on the severity as it might impact folks as well as the event itself. All around the best of meteorology. Very uplifting.

    1. I haven’t been in the PNW since 1996 but they had a great group out there back then too.

      1. Agree. We are blessed with a great group in our area also. I’m following charleston (another area near and dear) Mets who of course have their own concern re possible tropical impacts on an area that floods easily. Also impressive.

  20. Just had a soaker pass through Quiche Gorge.

    Blazing sun before it, now returned to blazing sun again. Truck thermometer read 93F leading into the heavy shower.

    2. Love love Quiche. The diner and then antique mall were always a stop. Are they still there.

      1. Remember driving past the antique mall. I took note of that cause I have a cousin who is big into antiques. I’ll have to sharpen my eye for the diner 🙂 🙂 :).

  21. To add to TK’s point about Boston temperatures, here are the month-to-date departures from normal around the region:

    ORH +3.9
    MHT +3.7
    LWM +3.7
    Lowell +3.6
    PWM +3.4
    PYM +3.4
    Jamaica Plain +3.4
    Blue Hill +3.0
    PVD +2.8
    Bridgewater +2.8
    TAN +2.6
    BAF +2.6
    CON +2.5
    BDL +2.4
    BED +2.2

    BOS +5.4

    One of these is not like the others.

    1. What does the NWS say when confronted with data like this?
      Bury their collective heads in the sand????

        3. I cannot believe that they have the gall to say that.

          Thank you for the information!

    2. I would hope my 6th grade math students identify the Logan datapoint as an outlier. 🙂 6th grade math common core curriculum.

  22. 11:15 AM Local time (PDT) it was already 100 in Seattle.
    That is 3 consecutives days of 100+. Wind NNE at 15

    How high will it go?

    1. My sensor is in the sun and I have not gotten around to installing the new radiation shield. Therefore I cannot use mine as a comparison.

  25. Seattle was up to 102 with a NNE wind which just shifted to NW
    and the temp dropped back to 100. Interesting to watch.
    I am curious to see what it does.

  26. I just took the trash out and I about MELTED!!! This is about as hot as I can ever remember. Of course being older contributes
    to that feeling.

  27. Oh look, Tropical Storm Danny has formed, with a central pressure of 1014mb. So, now we’re 4-for-4 with tropical storms that aren’t really tropical storms.

  29. Gutted by the news that David Pastrnak’s 6 day old newborn son (Viggo) passed away. Pastrnak was so excited about becoming a father. Can’t imagine the heartbreak and anguish he and his girlfriend Rebecca Rohlson are experiencing. May Viggo rest in peace, and may David and Rebecca find solace somehow during this extremely difficult time.

  32. Lytton, British Columbia reached 47.5C (117.5F) this afternoon, to break the Canadian national record that they just set yesterday.

  33. Tom, are you still in VT? Looks to be a few cells going through now. But if you are there, I’m probably too late

    1. Yes and we’ve gotten hit twice. Once, a moderate thundershower and now a lighter shower. I think it sent the dew point to 75F 🙂

  34. Seattle preliminary high of 107. It was the battle of the sea breeze

    Over 100 in three days where it took decades for three separate highs of 100.

  36. Quillayute, WA, on the extreme NW tip of the Olympic Peninsula, smashed their all-time record today when they hit 110. The old record was 99. The normal high today was 65.

    Two more tidbits on this:

    1. Of the 5400+ stations with record data, the 11-degree spread between the warmest day on record and 2nd warmest day on record is the largest.

    2. This is now the record for all stations in the US that receive more than 100″ of rain annually.

  37. 00z GFS looks almost exactly like my discussion from this morning. Suddenly warms us up nicely for July 4 too.

  38. Just an observation: The reference to “hazy” are not really valid. It hasn’t been hazy during this. It’s hardly ever hazy any more.

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