Tuesday June 29 2021 Forecast (7:23AM)

144 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

The next 5 days will be a good example of the range of temperatures we can see in the summertime, with a hot spell peaking today, backing off ever-so-slightly tomorrow, then ending as July arrives landing us on the cooler end of the spectrum by the end of the work week / start of the holiday weekend. Our Bermuda High continues to pump the heat and humidity into the region today. The atmosphere this afternoon will be very slightly more unstable than it was yesterday, so there is a slightly better chance that some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will occur in the WHW forecast area this afternoon, where it stayed well west and north of the area yesterday. Most locations see nothing of the kind, but those who do can experience a torrential downpour and of course lightning as the cell peaks. These tend to last a short-time before raining themselves out. So while they are not highly likely, be on the look-out if you are out and about this afternoon. And most importantly, remember your heat precautions and safety measures! A cold front will be getting closer to the region later Wednesday, which will still be a hot and humid day, but with a better chance of at least scattered to possibly linear or segmented lines of showers and thunderstorms developing and arriving in the region later in the day. A slightly slower front would keep this activity mostly to the west and north – something to watch. The initial frontal boundary does get into the area Thursday, but in a dissipating state, and that day will still be humid though not as hot, with a pop up shower or thunderstorm possible with some solar heating. Later in the day expect more substantial cloud cover to take over as we start to see another front coming down from the northwest while some overrunning of tropical moisture starts to take place over the air mass boundaries. Some of this moisture will be from what was called a tropical storm as it quickly formed and made landfall in the US Southeast Monday. This could help produce a period of widespread and potentially heavy shower activity Thursday night and part of Friday, before it pulls away and we’re just left with some lingering showers favoring southern areas Friday, and much cooler air. High pressure from Canada is expected to have enough push to dry the region out but keep it on the cool side for the start of the holiday weekend on Saturday. There is still some medium range guidance that highly disagrees with this scenario, keeping the weather wet.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible from mid afternoon to early evening. Highs 90-97, cooler South Coast. Dew point near 70, may fall to middle 60s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 87-94, cooler South Coast.. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of evening showers. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89, cooler South Coast.. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming N to NE.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, especially CT, RI, southern MA. Highs 68-75. Dew point near 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 55-62.Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 4-8)

The idea of high pressure from Canada coming down over the weekend remains, and if it’s correct we should see mostly fair weather and slight warming for July 4, but some upper level low pressure not far away can trigger some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A shot of heat and a little higher humidity for July 5 which is counting as the holiday for some, along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms later as a front approaches from the west. If the timing of that system is slower, we’d get by that day without a real storm threat and the next day (July 6) would be more unsettled, followed by a drying trend by the middle of next week. Confidence on this time period is lower than average, so check updates.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 9-13)

Near to above normal temperatures and an increase in humidity but with somewhat limited shower and thunderstorm chances. to start then increased later in the period as a frontal boundary to the north starts to drift southward into the region. Impossible for daily details this far out.

144 thoughts on “Tuesday June 29 2021 Forecast (7:23AM)”

  1. Just a quick little commentary here…
    Why do I (and others) harp on some things? Because we’re scientists. We want our field to be done the best it can be done. It’ll never be perfect, but things that can be fixed, SHOULD BE FIXED, not swept under the rug. I created this blog as a place to keep forecasting regionally, and to allow others, mets and non mets alike, to talk civilly about the weather, and hopefully learn from each other. We do well with that for the most part – let’s keep it up. I am going to continue to bring up issues when I see them. I expect anybody to do that, at least have the opportunity to do that, here. This is why we have a comments section. This blog is now approaching its dozenth year of existence and it’s doing quite well. Let’s keep it going!

    Have a great day! Stay cool!

    1. TK, props to you for this great weather blog, and all your efforts to keep it going. Been reading here every day since day one and I appreciate especially the opportunity to learn from you and the other mets, and the great comments. Yes, let’s keep it going!

    2. I find your commentary educational, and your (occasional) rants informative, entertaining, and still always professional, even as your integrity and commitment leads to brutal honesty when you think something is lacking in scientific rigor. All scientific fields survive and thrive on honest but respectful critique and you are a master of both. From one scientist to another, I appreciate you, and appreciate being educated about a field where I am a novice.

  2. Thanks TK. I have an appreciation for the comments you are referring to from yourself, SAK, and others as I have a knack for data integrity. Unfortunately I think there is an agenda behind it, but I’m hopeful sharing the information with the powers that be will drive a change to fix it.

  5. I find myself just ever more slightly interested in the actual details of the forecast today. I expect that interest to increase over the next 10-15 days and then remain high through 26 days from now, after which it will go back to my usual impartial copyeditor levels. 🙂

      1. While I’m a daily reader of this blog, I actually live in California, so the details of WHW forecasts are of only academic interest. However, my family lives just outside of Boston and I am coming to visit them soon (the exact dates of my trip can be figured out from a close read of my comment 😉 )

      2. Jules and I are friends (and former street hockey rivals haha) for many years… 🙂

        1. We were street hockey teammates first, (well, in the pick-up game sense of team) to be fair. The rivalry only started because of blatant sexism (not by any present parties). And yeah, possible I’ll run into TK while I’m out east too 😉

  6. TK, thank you for both your expertise and your commentary. I am learning a lot from this blog, and I hope it continues on.

    1. Gross is the word.

      I may have learned something, though. I like to open my windows, even in winter, to let the fresh air in. I decided not to at all during this heat wave, and it’s helped keep things bearable (I don’t have AC). Opening windows in this heat will only drag the HH into the apartment, at least that’s my theory. Who knows.

  9. What a three days of worry and fascination in the Pacific Northwest and into Canada. Final high temperature Monday at Lytton, British Columbia was 47.9C, or 118F.  Amazing!

    https://twitter.com/nwseastern/status/1409682508074082306?s=21

    I received a message from the GFS. Imagine eight days ago …..five days past the three day cone of accuracy….it predicted 111 in Seattle and 120 in Portland for Monday, June 27. Temps were 108 and 116, respectively. GFS is humbly accepting accolades

  10. If it is going to be this hot let’s set some records
    From Eric Fisher
    Today has a chance to tie the hottest June day on record for Boston.
    Low of 80F and high of 100F would equal 6/6/1925, when records were kept in the city instead of at Logan

    2. Media needs to call out the Logan issue.
      It needs to be done.
      No more false data.

      Trust me, they know it’s wrong.

      And the government needs to step up and be responsible. End of story.

      This is all I will say about this today.

      2. As you know, I’m writing to our local Mets. I had planned to start with my favorites and changed my mind as that could be taken as a bias. So I wrote to three yesterday who are mentioned here as being respected. All three wrote back immediately which is impressive in its own. All three said very much the same thing as the other. I’m writing to more today now that my zoom call has ended.

        In the meantime, as we saw in the link I’ve posted from the sea-tac sensor investigation, I think it would go a long way if something other than nearby temps were cited as that is surely part of what might be a problem, but not close to the whole.

        I mentioned to you, TK, that I was very impressed in reading tweets from the NW Mets that they knew which runways at sea-tac actually influenced the sensor when the wind direction went over them.

  11. Thank you, TK.

    You have a knack for explaining weather to experts and novices (like me) alike. I’ve learned a lot.

    Jeremy Reiner showed an interesting factoid last night. The only other year we had two heat waves in June was 1941. Turned out that in 1941 those were the only two heat waves of the summer. July and August were a bit cooler than normal. Of course, this has NO bearing on what happens this year. Nevertheless, I found it interesting.

    JR seems like a nice guy, by the way. His stage presence is not slick, but that’s what I like about him. It’s like he’s an everyday guy – a neighbor or friend – giving a forecast.

    1. I still think it’s interesting nobody brought up the more impressive heatwave in May and June 2017 (other than here on the blog).

    2. I adore JR. I’ve mentioned here before that when he was brand new at whdh and I called in temps, he answered. He chatted with me for a while as if I were an old friend.

  13. Worried about the older folks in Washington state and the Pacific Northwest, generally. Watched some clips of local TV and it does seem that the city of Seattle and surrounding towns are doing their best to warn residents of the dangers of heat stroke, lack of hydration. I just hope that people pay visits to older folks who lack AC and aren’t accustomed to this kind of heat.

    1. Should be much better in Seattle today. Projected high of around 90 as opposed to 108 yesterday.

    2. It is horribly worrisome. The Mets and media in the area have been remarkably responsible by getting word out far ahead when this was first suspected. Unfortunately AC units are limited. I finally spoke to a sister of Mac’s cousin who lives over Puget sound. They do have one AC but she has health problems. Stress alone is dangerous let alone the extreme heat.

  14. 9:47 AM

    91 at Logan

    88 at Norwood, Beverly, Bedford and Lawrence

    HMMMM

    87 here in JP (before sun strikes my sensor, so I know this is correct)

        1. Would you rather say:
          @(!#$(!@#)(!@&#$*^&!@(*$^(*!@$(*^!@(*$&!*(@^$*(!@&*($&!*(@&$*!&@$*(&!@)($&)(!@&$()&!@)($&(!*@^$*(!^@*($&!*()@&$*(!&@$*()&!*)(@&$()!@&$()!&@$()&!)(@$&()!&$()!&@$()!)(@$&(!&@$(&!@()$&!)(@$&()&!)@($&

          1. Nah. That’s your job. People love it when you rant. 😀

            I’m one of them. 🙂

  15. Did Logan just fix their thermometer?

    Now Logan is still 91 but Norwood and Fitchburg are now 91
    and Bedford, Beverly and Lawrence are now 90?????????????

  17. I am hoping we don’t see many JpDave rants during this winter. The less we see means were having a good winter if you are a snow lover.

  18. I want to read a HOLY CRAP BATMAN from you this winter as that means were having a big one! We did not get one from you at all last winter. It has been a while what is the criteria needed to get a HOLY CRAP BATMAN for snowfall?

    1. Indeed, JPD’s HOLY CRAP BATMAN is sort of like Henry Marguisity’s BIG DADDY. Saw a lot of those in Jan/Feb of 2011 and 2015.

      Right now, I must say, I can’t even imagine snowfall.

      1. 🙂 🙂 🙂
        That’s funny.

        I can’t remember the last time I posted one of those. It’s been awhile.

        JJ you wanted to know the criteria? I guess it depends upon how I feel, but I will see that a 12 inch snowfall does not get
        that designation. It has to be bigger and it depends how fast it falls. In general think in terms of 18 inches plus, give or take depending on mood.

        I’ll give you a holy crap batman for this facata heat and humidity!!! it is BRUTAL!(@#(&!@()#(!&@)*#&!)*@&#!&)(#&)(!@&#(!)(@&#(!&@)(&#()!&@(#&)(!@&#(!@()#()!&

  20. I am hoping we see some good thunderstorms tomorrow as that will begin the process of ending this heat. Looking at the 12z NAM even though it is over done plenty of instability around for a couple strong thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon and evening.

  22. Thanks TK.

    These are interesting times in the field of meteorology. There’s a lot of agendas out there. You have to be really careful with who/what you believe. I’m thinking in particular about what’s been going on in the Pacific NW, possibly the most meteorologically significant event of my lifetime. So many deliberately false/misleading statements have been made regarding that event. I will say this though, I’m happy with where the mainstream scientific consensus is on a lot of issues right now. There are tons of really smart people in the fields of meteorology/climatology, and by and large they’re the ones dictating policy.

    I have not followed the Logan issue especially closely. I do recall a couple years ago when it clearly was running a high bias. This has been a theme for a number of ASOS sites over the years. It’s a known issue, and one I wish would be amplified a little more by the NWS. Typically these issues are detected and fixed, not always as fast as I’d like (though there’s some practical considerations as well). Usually once they’re fixed the sensor is good to go for a pretty long time, so it would come as surprising to me that Logan would be having issues again. In my forecast area one of the culprits last year was Allentown, PA, which was running a very obvious 2-3 degree high bias, which was corrected and has been fine since.

    Looking at obs over the past couple days, to me Logan doesn’t look obviously bad. The wind so far this morning has been *ideal* for heating at Logan. There’s tons of personal weather stations within a 5 mile radius in the 91-95 degree range. My best estimate is that it’s running about a degree too high. But that’s getting to the range of “who are we to say” based on other issues such as siting which can influence the temperature by that magnitude. But that’s just my take, and I plan to continue watching it in the weeks ahead and to continue watching what TK, SAK, and others have to say.

    One area where I am in strong agreement with TK/SAK: NHC. Not going to go into it here, but I have some serious qualms about how this season has been handled so far.

    2. Nice to see you here and your input is always exceptional. I’m finding a lot of similarity in your comments to the folks I’ve been emailing. I will say that this is a huge part of my fascination with weather.

      A curious question./thought re NHC. I absolutely understand there are set parameters for tropical system qualification. As climate changes and as our world changes, do they need to be tweaked? Have they ever been tweaked? I also understand that the parameters have to be adhered to until or if anything is changed. Just looking for discussion as I noticed two Mets comment that Danny shows more characteristics than the last …is it two?….I lost track.

      Two of the folks I emailed re Logan sensor have been very open in asking me to write with any future questions. This just floored me as they do not know me from Adam. We are blessed with some amazing folks in the field.

      I’d love to see discussion here with corresponding examples, etc.

  23. For a better look at the SPC outlooks focused just on New England, save these links:

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/fema/images/fema01_swody1.png
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/fema/images/fema01_swody2.png
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/fema/images/fema01_swody3.png

    They are higher quality maps focused just on FEMA Region 1 (which is New England), and highlight some of the cities in this area. For other regions of the country change the “fema01” part of the link to fema02, etc. For a map of where each region is, go here: https://www.fema.gov/about/organization/regions

    If you want a closer look than just New England, you can also find the SPC maps highlighting each state (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/) or by each NWS office (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/cwa/images/)

    If you want to see them regional with the tornado/hail/wind probabilities, then Pivotal Weather should be your go-to site (https://www.pivotalweather.com/maps.php?ds=spc&p=spcd2four_panel&r=us_ne)

  24. When the SPC updates there outlook for Wed around 130pm I expect it the slight risk to remain.

  25. My dp sensor goes a bit whacky when humid and the sun is shining on the sensor. But even so, it is now reading 78.
    Nearby Blue Hill is reading 75, so I suspect the dp is 75 here.
    It sure as hell feels like it!)(@#&*!@&*#&!*&@#*(!&(*@#&*(!&@#*(&!*(@#&!*(&@#*(!&@*(#&!*(@#&*(!&@*#(&!*(@&#*(!&@#(*&!*(@#&(*!&#*(!&@*(#&*(!&@#*(!&@*(#&!*(

  26. Anyone have experience with the Kestral 5200 or any of their meters. I noticed many were driving around sea-tac with them. I was thinking of looking into one

      1. JpDave at the current time you look to be in a good spot for thunderstorms. The thinking from the SPC 50-70mph wind gusts possible in the enhanced risk area. This is the first enhanced risk for SNE this year.

  28. From the SPC for tomorrow.
    The greatest combination of shear/buoyancy is forecast from parts of NY eastward into southern New England within a corridor of steep 0-2 km lapse rates. It is within this focused area where the potential for strong to severe gusts (50-70 mph) is highest and the threat for damaging gusts is greatest.

    1. I wrote to three more local Mets. I did speak to TK before emailing and he thought it was a good idea and encouraged me to follow up

  32. Vicki you look at the moment to be in the sweet spot for those strong to severe storms tomorrow. The damaging wind gusts look to be the biggest threat and that could lead to property damage.

    1. I thought so too. We have a new cantilever umbrella that has huge pavers on the base and it just went over. I think it is safe to say we will lay it down tomorrow

  33. I would do that just to be safe. The SPC in their discussion this afternoon mentions the possibility of 50-70mph wind gusts. I hope a good thunderstorm could come to my area tomorrow. The enhanced risk is for far northern CT with the rest of CT being in a slight risk.

    1. I will wish for a good thunderstorm for you also. I always take our table umbrella down. I was shocked when this one went over with so much weight on the base. Our wind is not that strong today.

  35. Do I see southern VT in enhanced for tomorrow ?

    I actually have a signal at this particular waterhole and that cell just northeast of Bennington, VT is right over us 🙂 🙂

  36. Tom you do see an enhanced risk for southern Vermont tomorrow. Within that enhanced area 50-70 mph wind gusts are possible according to the latest discussion from the SPC.

    1. Thanks JJ !

      Glad we took down the screen room earlier today ! We didn’t take it down for storms tomorrow, I didn’t know that kind of threat was there, we took it down cause the bugs haven’t been that bad.

  38. Worcester at 92F. Wow …..

    Some mixing ??, west wind, something, but there are pockets of 60s dewpoints mixed in with the 70s dewpoints.

  39. The isolated activity is popping as expected.

    Also there is some regional downsloping where the wind is west enough and that is dropping the dew points in some areas into the 60s, which was also expected. The downsloping hasn’t gotten everybody so there are still pockets of much more muggy air.

    1. Wow! That’s humid. I feel kind of sick just thinking about it.

      Did several errands just now; walked maybe 2 miles, lugged heavy bags of groceries home, and feel like I’m out of it.

  41. Just a thought just wondering if the hot weather in the northwest United States eventually heads to the Midwest or our way or get shunted to the southwest of SNE?

    1. How about we wait until we’re more than 1/3 of the way through summer before trying to figure out where it will stand historically?

    2. Highly unlikely.
      That weather pattern was much different than this one.

      We also are literally just days into summer so it’s going to take many more weeks to determine if it even would have a chance.

      Yes 1983 did have a lot of hot days but keep in mind that the real relentless heat didn’t really happen until we got to the end of the summer… September was just brutal.

  43. RECORD EVENT REPORT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
    0315 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2021

    …JUNE 29TH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT BOSTON MA…

    THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR BOSTON FOR THE DAY WAS MATCHED AT 244PM WHEN THE TEMPERATURE HIT 99. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 99 SET IN 1933.

    1. oh also I got published with my fellow cohort members. Not related to the weather but if your interested in coral reefs a nasty disease has been impacting Caribbean reef systems. It started in Florida and has since spread. Its opened access so you all should be able to read it below. If you want to know more about it just message me or comment 🙂

      https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.682688/full?&utm_source=Email_to_authors_&utm_medium=Email&utm_content=T1_11.5e1_author&utm_campaign=Email_publication&field=&journalName=Frontiers_in_Marine_Science&id=682688

    3. Good to see you Matt & love the updates! You are clearly Kicking butt & taking numbers – not that I expected anything else.

  45. A few cells making a bee line towards Boston, weakening of course. Rain out before reaching here? highly likely, unless they
    pulse up again OR another one pops closer to the city.

    We shall see.

  46. From the something to keep an eye on category for tomorrow.
    NWS Boston
    deep layer shear increasing to 30-40 kts by late in the day along with 1500-2500 j/kg Therefore, moderate to high Shear/Cape environment should result in at least a few strong to severe storms, but if all these ingredients come together could be a fairly widespread/high end severe day for much of SNE, especially northern portions of MA/CT/RI. This is evident on HREF with impressive max updraft potential across this region late Wed,

  48. Short range guidance did well with forecasts isolated convection today but poorly on location of most activity

  49. Cell popped just to the West of here. Not sure if we get it or get grazed. Hope we get it.

  50. Hey everybody!

    TK – as an extreme version of a non-met member of our community who is very curious about metereology but completely uneducated and unskilled (and a liberal arts type to boot lol!) – I just love and so appreciate everything about this community you have created and nurtured – such an intelligent, educating, and kind group here. Plus I don’t like winter or storms but it’s literally impossible for me not to catch the energy of excitement and joy here as storms come along! How can I deny the joy of a rare JpDave HOLY CRAP BATMAN!! Or Vickie savoring a really good thunderstorm on her deck? – no way to do it – the joy is just too great!

    I’m writing this now from an Amtrak train from NYC stranded just outside of Bridgeport, CT. Heat is creeping up (we’ve been dead on the tracks almost an hour now so it’s getting pretty warm and sticky in the car) but our rescue is on it’s way and it’s impossible to feel very grouchy about my predicament now after seeing that tweet on the town in Pakistan.

    I do personally wonder sometimes how long climate change non believers can hold out in the face of a world in which we have made and are continuing to make formerly populated areas literally uninhabitable…. At what point will the facts become undeniable- or is it possible this type of denying will extend forever no matter what…

    Also – thank you for the kindness of adding the forum for Covid info – I have so much trust in the minds and knowledge of the folks here WHW has become my go-to for both weather & covid this year. Having Joshua among us with his incredible knowledge and level headedness is … priceless!

    Just mentioning a few random of us – but thanks everyone for so generously sharing your knowledge. I wish I had more I could contribute myself – but thank you for letting me lurk!!

    1. Mama. That is awful. I sure hope they get you going soon.

      So so nice to see you. I’m sitting on the deck now as you can see from the link I just posted and watching as a small cell approaches

      1. Wouldn’t expect any less! Hope you get an exciting day tomorrow!

        We were only stopped about 90 minutes and on the whole the passengers were all good sports so not too bad!

  51. Car thermometer read between 98 and 101 from Brockton to Waltham. 128 was wet from Route 20 to Totten Pond Road. Car thermometer dropped to 84. It was 91 again by Trapelo Road, and 98-101 from Route 2A all the way to Nashua.

    1. A nice air mass storm just went right across the south side of Waltham. Probably a few degrees cooler there now but humid as heck!

      1. Air mass storm here in Dorchester featuring thunder, (lightning?), downpours and bright sunshine.

        JPD, are you getting it as well?

  53. Well hello. I was so busy making Joshua’s clam chowder that I didn’t look outside.

    My grandson calls the second picture an angel cloud. He thinks that is where heaven is because it is so bright. I think he is right

    https://imgur.com/a/tGecsKM

  54. The shower came through Sterling earlier and dropped the temp to 83. Then some time after it quickly shot up to 97 and more humid than it was prior to the shower. I love these quick change weather events. They’ve always fascinated me.

    1. Wow. What a swing. We maybe got to 96 today. We are down to 81 with this cell. Loving the yellow sky. Well, not really. I don’t much like yellow skies

  55. Appetizer before the main course tomorrow with these thunderstorms were having right now???

  56. I am not but I heard thunder in the distance. Far northeastern CT and the Hartford area right now have severe thunderstorm warnings.

  57. Joshua, your clam chowder recipe is wonderful. It also attracted a couple of the grandkids who said it reminds them of Humarock. Many thanks.

  58. .24 inch here.
    dp sensor reading 80 !!!
    I know it is a few defrees high, but this is insane. rain madevit worse

  60. Couple rounds of thunderstorms here in Coventry CT this evening. Some gusty winds and lots of lightning. Only got 1 inning of my sons baseball game in this evening before they called it, wisely. They may have trouble getting the completion of this game in either tomorrow or Thursday evening. Forecast does not look good!

    1. I watched them go by down your way. Some impressive lightning with the last one.

      You are due to head to Uxbridge soon I think

    1. Awesome! It’s nice to see the planetary pair up there again. Reminds me of last summer.

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