Good morning,
I feel as if delta is closing in on us.
Frightening.
The Cape is getting mauled by delta.
Cases are on the rise. 366 news cases yesterday in MA. This is without a whole lot of testing going on. What is the real number. And that number was an alarming number back when this all started.
And sorry, the number of break through cases is disturbing and.sugar coating by saying it is to be expected just doesn’t cut it. Too many for my liking.
Oh, I am starting this day off cheery as ever.
Agree, especially on breakthrough infections. To say, as some do, that they were “expected” on this scale is delusional.
Dutch CDC reported yesterday that 9% of all positive cases in the Netherlands last week were breakthroughs among fully vaccinated, and 14% were breakthroughs among partially vaccinated. And yet, the U.S. CDC not only puts out far lower numbers, it continues to say they are “very rare.” I’m sorry, 9% ain’t rare or quite rare. Throw in the partially vaccinated and it’s actually quite common. While the vast majority do not get severely ill, they can transmit. A Dutch study by virologists released yesterday shows that breakthroughs – asymptomatic and symptomatic – can and do transmit. This was a carefully designed study of healthcare workers in academic medical centers. Somehow American public health officials aren’t listening to this. I’m baffled.
Yes this transmission is alarming. And among healthy younger vaccinated individuals, yes, the virus “tends” to be mild, but for the immune compromised or the elderly, the break throughs can be deadly.
We are no where near out of this mess. Not even close.
If we could have gotten most nearly everyone vaccinated it would have made a huge difference. It just wasn’t enough and this mess is what we have now.
i was saddened to hear about the cases in the nursing home in West Yarmouth.
Politically the Biden Administration must make some tough decisions, including the introduction of a nationwide proof of vaccination/proof of negative test system that can be used here and abroad. Second, once regular FDA approval happens Administration needs to show support for mandatory vaccination efforts. Third, and perhaps most importantly to reduce transmission, the Administration needs to reintroduce CDC mask and distancing guidance (including indoor crowd limits) for ALL, not just the unvaccinated.
Evidently, the Administration has shied away from all three points above because they’d be politically unpopular.
Agree 100%. Let’s hope they get that done.
MANDATORY vaccinations are the only way out towards getting back to normalcy. We are not going to get anywhere close to herd immunity without vaccinations!
If anyone else has a better idea towards herd immunity, let us know.
Unlike Alpha (UK variant) earlier this spring, Delta will likely spread in mitigated form to practically all areas of the country. It’s much more transmissible. High rates of vaccination will protect states like Massachusetts, but we’re still going to see at least a ripple of hospitalizations and deaths. It’s inevitable.
Thank you all for your comments.
I agree that mandatory would make a huge difference. Two problems. One, there was a revolt when flu was suggested for all in fall 2020. Two, I do not believe you can mandate a vaccine that is not fully approved. And I absolutely disagree that full approval should be rushed. We know the agencies are deliberately keeping some things quiet. It makes me wonder if there is something about the vaccines they are not quite comfortable with.
On herd immunity. I have raked an eyebrow all along about our ability to reach herd immunity.
Measles, mumps, rubella, polio, chicken pox, etc have reached herd immunity because of a one (or three) dose vaccine or because of natural immunity from having had the virus.
The flu….a Hand down from the 1918 virus….has not. And it won’t. Because it mutates. We may get to the point that covid and its mutations quiet down in severity, but it is truly hard for me to believe we will ever reach what we think of as herd immunity with this. I’d bet, as with influenza, we have a yearly vaccine…possibly both combined.
You are correct. Even if one has had covid, any immunity only lasts a few months or so as it has become clear that one
can be re-infected.
And I sure hope you are wrong about those in authority knowing
“something’ about the vaccines and hiding it from us.
That would be a scary thought.
Call me doom and gloom, but frankly I think we are screwed.
Time will tell and sure hope I am wrong .
I do not mean to imply at all that those approving do know something. But lying about one thing or deliberately keeping things quiet, breaks trust….especially with something this serious.
I’m curious about Mrs OS’s feelings about this. She and I have had a tendency in the past to raise eyebrows at the same things
Oh Yeah, she has the same concerns.
Thank you. It does not surprise me.
Agree on all points, Vicki. As mentioned, mandatory vaccinations could only occur if the vaccines are approved by way of a regular FDA approval.
Measles, mumps, and rubella are interesting viruses. Never shown much in terms of adaptive skills. Hence, don’t mutate. That really helps, because essentially you’re dealing with the same virus over time. Not so with the coronavirus. This one in particular has demonstrated an incredibly rapid ability to adapt.
Regarding Alabama, this story is heart-wrenching. I do quibble, however, with the doctor when she thinks aloud about the unvaccinated patient’s predicament and says “it’s all your fault.” If I were a doctor I would do my utmost to NOT think that way at all. We all make mistakes in judgment; speeding on the highway, drinking too much, not getting vaccinated. Most of the time we `get away with it.’ Once a person is unlucky to get injured, sick or, heaven forbid, die, we must show compassion towards the person. Our role is not to be a moralist or a judge at that point. https://twitter.com/paimadhu/status/1417840941759614978
Thanks Joshua.
And that doctor doesn’t belong in the profession. Shame on her. I also object STRONGLY to her using a person who is dying as a tool to get people to vaccinate. Just awful.
The doctor does say she has a different perspective after seeing the patient. Yet, I would hope that her attitude would always be not to blame the patient, before or after she sees him or her.
There’s good news to report from the UK. Growth in cases appears to have stopped and is in fact declining a bit. Still high numbers, and hospitalizations and deaths are increasing. Yet, if they’ve really reached a turning point we’ll have an indication on how long the Delta wave will last here. My guess is it will be longer than the UK – based on our somewhat lower vaccination rates – but not a whole lot longer. So, how long could the wave last here? Well, it’s taken 8 weeks in Britain to reach a possible turning point. We’re about 3 or 4 weeks into the wave. So at least another 4 or 5 weeks and probably a bit longer. Caveats: 1. This is a preliminary assessment based on 4 days of data from the UK; 2. Other variants could arise. Best case scenario would be that the Delta wave is the last, and that the virus will have run out of hosts and peter out. Let’s hope for this.
Is it possible to have a covid testing site safely situated near a covid vaccine site to make sure the person in front or back of you doesn’t have covid and may or may not even know it? This may sound a bit crazy but have wondered about it. A quick testing site, if it is as good as a longer waiting for testing result site.
I know of a person who had her first vaccine and then tested positive for covid 3 days later. It is a good question. I wondered about that also.
I wasn’t clear. Her dr felt she had covid when she was vaccines
That’s very possible. I was just wondering if they could check testing then give vaccines. Maybe not possible.
Also, not happy how many hospitals and medical places have loosened up. I am getting a procedure and called a dept. in the hospital where I am getting a procedure and asked about seating and screening arrangements. Receptionist said sit wherever you want – covid is no worse than the flu. Worrisome. What’s wrong with this world?
Wow! Receptionist in a healthcare setting saying “no worse than the flu.” Yes, it’s really normal that the U.S. has had between 700,000 and 900,000 excess deaths in the past 18 months; the world between 6 and 10 million excess deaths. I can’t deal with people like that. I find it appalling.
As all of you know, I try my best to be as objective as I can about Covid-19. It’s NOT the black death or the plague. It’s not as bad as the Spanish Flu. But it’s the worst pandemic since 1918-1920, and will in all likelihood be the worst in our lifetime. It’s serious. Even today, it’s killing more than 300 people a day nationwide, which is 3x the number of people killed by a influenza in a very bad season.
Thank you Joshua. And thank you for all the current news.
Wow. That is unacceptable. I have an appointment for an ultrasound next week. I’ll be calling nwh.
BTW, this hospital was not nwh. I’m having a procedure nxt. wk. at nwh, too.
Thank you, rainshine. I hope you are well. It is very nice to see you here. . I just tried to call but for some odd reason, when I use my iPhone, voice messages do not recognize my number Choices any more. I’m always nervous in the X-ray department since so many people who are not feeling well go for X-rays.
NWH does screen with a few questions when you arrive. But seating is not distanced. Chairs are set up as normal but she said people try to keep separate from one another.
I need to be careful in my assessment of the UK case growth. Just read that test positivity in England has nearly doubled in 10 days. Up to 11.2%. That suggests insufficient testing, or capacity issues at testing centers. So, let’s wait a week before saying the Delta wave has peaked in Britain. Testing problems are magnified in the U.S., where we do about one-third the testing that Britain does. I just noticed that a number of testing sites in Boston are gone; no longer in operation. If I go to the UK I’ll need to be tested beforehand and don’t want to pay the $250 for an airport test or a boutique clinic. It’s pretty hard to find a testing site nearby. Also went to CVS and the few locations they actually do testing in Boston are pretty much fully booked through the 1st week of August.
Joshua, have you been to the free site in JP (24 Heath St, in the Anna Coles Community Center)? It’s walk-in, and you get results reliably within 24 hours. The website is lcgboston.com and has hours (it’s not open every day).
Thank you so much, Jean. This is helpful.
Also check cic-health.com. They’re not free, but they have multiple sites and give appointments; the results are also completely reliable within 24 hours, and they’re much cheaper than the pharmacies. Once my employer reimbursed me, another employer split the cost with me half and half, and in one case I just decided to pay the cost to avoid the hassle of getting to JP and back in the afternoon. (Their drive-thru site at Riverside is convenient for me.)
I hope you can find what you need and enjoy the trip to see your daughter.
Fasten you seat belts, everyone, we’re just entering the Delta wave. More than 50k cases today, with low testing levels nationwide. As I said before, this wave will not just impact the low vaccination states. I wish Gottlieb et al. would admit that they were wrong to suggest that it would be confined to hot spots. Israeli and British data were unequivocal. Even if you’re highly vaccinated the wall of immunity is easy to breach with Delta. Plus, there never was a wall to begin with. Even in Massachusetts we could never get the cases down to levels that the UK and Israel had gotten them down to 2 months ago!!! So, where do we go from here? Well, we need leadership, and this is unfortunately lacking at the state and federal levels. We don’t want deaths to go back up to 500, or, God forbid, 1,000 per day. In order to prevent this we need more than just a vaccination drive. We also need to seriously mitigate (masks, distancing, crowd limits indoors), and we need a universal proof of vaccination/proof of negative test system for domestic and international travel, hospitals, nursing homes, schools, indoor concert and sport venues. Transmission must go down. Otherwise we invite more variants and more trouble. As I said before, perhaps the Delta wave will be over by September, but by allowing so many cases to occur over time we’re basically inducing the virus to mutate.
Disease mitigation doesn’t do well in Democracies. There is no way people are going back to the way it was this time last year, just won’t happen. Delta will infect people but fortunately the death and hospitalization levels will be much lower than prior to vaccinations. All I can say is schools better be open come the fall.
Get vaccinated, it’s simple and you can see the right starting to push it since the deaths are highest in red states. We will have to come to accept a certain number of deaths and infections with Covid, just not sure what number is yet.
We were just in Switzerland for 2 weeks and want to talk about vaccination, non existent. This isn’t an America only problem.
Funny thing about democracies isn’t it. All for one and the one is me
As far as school….it can be open but catering to one group is absolutely, positively wrong. The schools systems that did this last year are the ones that struggled. There needs to be a choice.
Yeah don’t tell people what to do in democracies. The constitution in my opinion is the single greatest document written and the biggest pain in the ass at the same time.
As far as schools go, we will disagree. Teachers can’t teach to both remote and in person. If folks want remote they have to have separate teachers, separate curriculum etc… school that were open fully last year didn’t have have higher Covid rates than what we saw. To me that’s enough to ensure that schools are open fully this fall.
Do you have data on the in school students vs full remote students and covid
C-19 for 7-22 is ready.
Comments are closed.
Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
Good morning,
I feel as if delta is closing in on us.
Frightening.
The Cape is getting mauled by delta.
Cases are on the rise. 366 news cases yesterday in MA. This is without a whole lot of testing going on. What is the real number. And that number was an alarming number back when this all started.
And sorry, the number of break through cases is disturbing and.sugar coating by saying it is to be expected just doesn’t cut it. Too many for my liking.
Oh, I am starting this day off cheery as ever.
Agree, especially on breakthrough infections. To say, as some do, that they were “expected” on this scale is delusional.
Dutch CDC reported yesterday that 9% of all positive cases in the Netherlands last week were breakthroughs among fully vaccinated, and 14% were breakthroughs among partially vaccinated. And yet, the U.S. CDC not only puts out far lower numbers, it continues to say they are “very rare.” I’m sorry, 9% ain’t rare or quite rare. Throw in the partially vaccinated and it’s actually quite common. While the vast majority do not get severely ill, they can transmit. A Dutch study by virologists released yesterday shows that breakthroughs – asymptomatic and symptomatic – can and do transmit. This was a carefully designed study of healthcare workers in academic medical centers. Somehow American public health officials aren’t listening to this. I’m baffled.
Yes this transmission is alarming. And among healthy younger vaccinated individuals, yes, the virus “tends” to be mild, but for the immune compromised or the elderly, the break throughs can be deadly.
We are no where near out of this mess. Not even close.
If we could have gotten most nearly everyone vaccinated it would have made a huge difference. It just wasn’t enough and this mess is what we have now.
i was saddened to hear about the cases in the nursing home in West Yarmouth.
https://www.capecodtimes.com/story/news/2021/07/16/cape-cod-covid-outbreak-in-a-nursing-home-that-hits-vaccinated-residents-spurs-concern-of-resurgence/7993293002/
Politically the Biden Administration must make some tough decisions, including the introduction of a nationwide proof of vaccination/proof of negative test system that can be used here and abroad. Second, once regular FDA approval happens Administration needs to show support for mandatory vaccination efforts. Third, and perhaps most importantly to reduce transmission, the Administration needs to reintroduce CDC mask and distancing guidance (including indoor crowd limits) for ALL, not just the unvaccinated.
Evidently, the Administration has shied away from all three points above because they’d be politically unpopular.
Agree 100%. Let’s hope they get that done.
MANDATORY vaccinations are the only way out towards getting back to normalcy. We are not going to get anywhere close to herd immunity without vaccinations!
If anyone else has a better idea towards herd immunity, let us know.
Alabama now has 35% test positivity. Epicenter of Delta is now in states like Alabama. https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1417822230407532544
Unlike Alpha (UK variant) earlier this spring, Delta will likely spread in mitigated form to practically all areas of the country. It’s much more transmissible. High rates of vaccination will protect states like Massachusetts, but we’re still going to see at least a ripple of hospitalizations and deaths. It’s inevitable.
Thank you all for your comments.
I agree that mandatory would make a huge difference. Two problems. One, there was a revolt when flu was suggested for all in fall 2020. Two, I do not believe you can mandate a vaccine that is not fully approved. And I absolutely disagree that full approval should be rushed. We know the agencies are deliberately keeping some things quiet. It makes me wonder if there is something about the vaccines they are not quite comfortable with.
On herd immunity. I have raked an eyebrow all along about our ability to reach herd immunity.
Measles, mumps, rubella, polio, chicken pox, etc have reached herd immunity because of a one (or three) dose vaccine or because of natural immunity from having had the virus.
The flu….a Hand down from the 1918 virus….has not. And it won’t. Because it mutates. We may get to the point that covid and its mutations quiet down in severity, but it is truly hard for me to believe we will ever reach what we think of as herd immunity with this. I’d bet, as with influenza, we have a yearly vaccine…possibly both combined.
You are correct. Even if one has had covid, any immunity only lasts a few months or so as it has become clear that one
can be re-infected.
And I sure hope you are wrong about those in authority knowing
“something’ about the vaccines and hiding it from us.
That would be a scary thought.
Call me doom and gloom, but frankly I think we are screwed.
Time will tell and sure hope I am wrong .
I do not mean to imply at all that those approving do know something. But lying about one thing or deliberately keeping things quiet, breaks trust….especially with something this serious.
I’m curious about Mrs OS’s feelings about this. She and I have had a tendency in the past to raise eyebrows at the same things
Oh Yeah, she has the same concerns.
Thank you. It does not surprise me.
Agree on all points, Vicki. As mentioned, mandatory vaccinations could only occur if the vaccines are approved by way of a regular FDA approval.
Measles, mumps, and rubella are interesting viruses. Never shown much in terms of adaptive skills. Hence, don’t mutate. That really helps, because essentially you’re dealing with the same virus over time. Not so with the coronavirus. This one in particular has demonstrated an incredibly rapid ability to adapt.
Regarding Alabama, this story is heart-wrenching. I do quibble, however, with the doctor when she thinks aloud about the unvaccinated patient’s predicament and says “it’s all your fault.” If I were a doctor I would do my utmost to NOT think that way at all. We all make mistakes in judgment; speeding on the highway, drinking too much, not getting vaccinated. Most of the time we `get away with it.’ Once a person is unlucky to get injured, sick or, heaven forbid, die, we must show compassion towards the person. Our role is not to be a moralist or a judge at that point. https://twitter.com/paimadhu/status/1417840941759614978
Thanks Joshua.
And that doctor doesn’t belong in the profession. Shame on her. I also object STRONGLY to her using a person who is dying as a tool to get people to vaccinate. Just awful.
The doctor does say she has a different perspective after seeing the patient. Yet, I would hope that her attitude would always be not to blame the patient, before or after she sees him or her.
There’s good news to report from the UK. Growth in cases appears to have stopped and is in fact declining a bit. Still high numbers, and hospitalizations and deaths are increasing. Yet, if they’ve really reached a turning point we’ll have an indication on how long the Delta wave will last here. My guess is it will be longer than the UK – based on our somewhat lower vaccination rates – but not a whole lot longer. So, how long could the wave last here? Well, it’s taken 8 weeks in Britain to reach a possible turning point. We’re about 3 or 4 weeks into the wave. So at least another 4 or 5 weeks and probably a bit longer. Caveats: 1. This is a preliminary assessment based on 4 days of data from the UK; 2. Other variants could arise. Best case scenario would be that the Delta wave is the last, and that the virus will have run out of hosts and peter out. Let’s hope for this.
Is it possible to have a covid testing site safely situated near a covid vaccine site to make sure the person in front or back of you doesn’t have covid and may or may not even know it? This may sound a bit crazy but have wondered about it. A quick testing site, if it is as good as a longer waiting for testing result site.
I know of a person who had her first vaccine and then tested positive for covid 3 days later. It is a good question. I wondered about that also.
I wasn’t clear. Her dr felt she had covid when she was vaccines
That’s very possible. I was just wondering if they could check testing then give vaccines. Maybe not possible.
Also, not happy how many hospitals and medical places have loosened up. I am getting a procedure and called a dept. in the hospital where I am getting a procedure and asked about seating and screening arrangements. Receptionist said sit wherever you want – covid is no worse than the flu. Worrisome. What’s wrong with this world?
Wow! Receptionist in a healthcare setting saying “no worse than the flu.” Yes, it’s really normal that the U.S. has had between 700,000 and 900,000 excess deaths in the past 18 months; the world between 6 and 10 million excess deaths. I can’t deal with people like that. I find it appalling.
As all of you know, I try my best to be as objective as I can about Covid-19. It’s NOT the black death or the plague. It’s not as bad as the Spanish Flu. But it’s the worst pandemic since 1918-1920, and will in all likelihood be the worst in our lifetime. It’s serious. Even today, it’s killing more than 300 people a day nationwide, which is 3x the number of people killed by a influenza in a very bad season.
Thank you Joshua. And thank you for all the current news.
Wow. That is unacceptable. I have an appointment for an ultrasound next week. I’ll be calling nwh.
BTW, this hospital was not nwh. I’m having a procedure nxt. wk. at nwh, too.
Thank you, rainshine. I hope you are well. It is very nice to see you here. . I just tried to call but for some odd reason, when I use my iPhone, voice messages do not recognize my number Choices any more. I’m always nervous in the X-ray department since so many people who are not feeling well go for X-rays.
NWH does screen with a few questions when you arrive. But seating is not distanced. Chairs are set up as normal but she said people try to keep separate from one another.
I wonder if Governor baker reads the newspapers
https://www.wcvb.com/article/massachusetts-covid-breakthrough-cases-delta-variant-pandemic-vaccine-data-charts-maps/37089843
716 breakthrough cases since July 17
I need to be careful in my assessment of the UK case growth. Just read that test positivity in England has nearly doubled in 10 days. Up to 11.2%. That suggests insufficient testing, or capacity issues at testing centers. So, let’s wait a week before saying the Delta wave has peaked in Britain. Testing problems are magnified in the U.S., where we do about one-third the testing that Britain does. I just noticed that a number of testing sites in Boston are gone; no longer in operation. If I go to the UK I’ll need to be tested beforehand and don’t want to pay the $250 for an airport test or a boutique clinic. It’s pretty hard to find a testing site nearby. Also went to CVS and the few locations they actually do testing in Boston are pretty much fully booked through the 1st week of August.
Joshua, have you been to the free site in JP (24 Heath St, in the Anna Coles Community Center)? It’s walk-in, and you get results reliably within 24 hours. The website is lcgboston.com and has hours (it’s not open every day).
Thank you so much, Jean. This is helpful.
Also check cic-health.com. They’re not free, but they have multiple sites and give appointments; the results are also completely reliable within 24 hours, and they’re much cheaper than the pharmacies. Once my employer reimbursed me, another employer split the cost with me half and half, and in one case I just decided to pay the cost to avoid the hassle of getting to JP and back in the afternoon. (Their drive-thru site at Riverside is convenient for me.)
I hope you can find what you need and enjoy the trip to see your daughter.
Fasten you seat belts, everyone, we’re just entering the Delta wave. More than 50k cases today, with low testing levels nationwide. As I said before, this wave will not just impact the low vaccination states. I wish Gottlieb et al. would admit that they were wrong to suggest that it would be confined to hot spots. Israeli and British data were unequivocal. Even if you’re highly vaccinated the wall of immunity is easy to breach with Delta. Plus, there never was a wall to begin with. Even in Massachusetts we could never get the cases down to levels that the UK and Israel had gotten them down to 2 months ago!!! So, where do we go from here? Well, we need leadership, and this is unfortunately lacking at the state and federal levels. We don’t want deaths to go back up to 500, or, God forbid, 1,000 per day. In order to prevent this we need more than just a vaccination drive. We also need to seriously mitigate (masks, distancing, crowd limits indoors), and we need a universal proof of vaccination/proof of negative test system for domestic and international travel, hospitals, nursing homes, schools, indoor concert and sport venues. Transmission must go down. Otherwise we invite more variants and more trouble. As I said before, perhaps the Delta wave will be over by September, but by allowing so many cases to occur over time we’re basically inducing the virus to mutate.
Disease mitigation doesn’t do well in Democracies. There is no way people are going back to the way it was this time last year, just won’t happen. Delta will infect people but fortunately the death and hospitalization levels will be much lower than prior to vaccinations. All I can say is schools better be open come the fall.
Get vaccinated, it’s simple and you can see the right starting to push it since the deaths are highest in red states. We will have to come to accept a certain number of deaths and infections with Covid, just not sure what number is yet.
We were just in Switzerland for 2 weeks and want to talk about vaccination, non existent. This isn’t an America only problem.
Funny thing about democracies isn’t it. All for one and the one is me
As far as school….it can be open but catering to one group is absolutely, positively wrong. The schools systems that did this last year are the ones that struggled. There needs to be a choice.
Yeah don’t tell people what to do in democracies. The constitution in my opinion is the single greatest document written and the biggest pain in the ass at the same time.
As far as schools go, we will disagree. Teachers can’t teach to both remote and in person. If folks want remote they have to have separate teachers, separate curriculum etc… school that were open fully last year didn’t have have higher Covid rates than what we saw. To me that’s enough to ensure that schools are open fully this fall.
Do you have data on the in school students vs full remote students and covid
C-19 for 7-22 is ready.