UK daily case numbers have gone down by 22% in 1 week. This is good news. Two caveats: School vacations started last week. There was mandatory testing in schools, sometimes 2x a week. 2. 13% fewer tests overall.
Dutch hospitals report that in the week of 11 to 18 July approximately 75% of hospital admissions were unvaccinated individuals, 9% were fully vaccinated without immune deficiencies, 5% were fully vaccinated with immune deficiencies, and 11% were in an `unknown’ category. No differences were detected among vaccines – Netherlands uses 4: AZ, Pfizer, J&J, and Moderna – in terms of the risk of being hospitalized while fully vaccinated.
Aha! MANDATORY is the key word here. It needs to happen in this country within the private sector and school systems. The only way out of this pandemic once and for all.
Ideally I would love Biden to sign an executive order, but no way that will happen.
My mistake. I thought the UK was going to have mandatory “vaccinations” in schools. I misread. At least mandatory testing is better than nothing.
That’s okay, Philip. The UK’s vaccine policy is not mandatory across the board (though it is in certain settings), but comes pretty close to mandatory for older adults (>65) and at-risk groups. The government basically bombards you with messages – directly from the health service, or your primary care physician – about the fact that you should be vaccinated. When I lived in the Netherlands, it was similar with the childhood vaccines (these are mandatory in the Netherlands) for my children. I remember getting a slew of letters (warnings, essentially) from the government and the local pediatrician, as well as phone messages.
Vaccines were mandatory for Mac and family when they moved abroad to work. Well established vaccines are mandatory for kids starting school. There are exceptions as there should be.
Hard to glean much from the incomplete U.S. case data today. Florida is not reporting. Also didn’t on Sunday or Monday. Disgraceful. Florida represents about 20% of U.S. cases and hospitalizations. How it’s legal for them not to report in the midst of a public health crisis is beyond me.
What concerns me most about the U.S. is actually not the case growth so much as the reported hospital admissions and ICU usage increase. It’s through the roof in a growing number of states. Suggests we’re deeper into the Delta wave than we thought. Just not testing enough. Sound familiar?
Massachusetts case numbers are worrisome, as are the numbers of deaths reported each day (12 today). As I said before, this wave will not spare the highly vaccinated states. Connecticut is also experiencing similar numbers in spite of an excellent vaccination rate; N.Y., too.
Global daily deaths are about to go well above 9,000 today for the first time in a couple of months. In the U.S. daily deaths are not increasing as much as in previous waves, but they’re definitely rising again. The reason for the blunted increase in deaths is the age cohort in this wave. Much younger folks are hospitalized, also in ICU. They stand a much greater chance of surviving.
Hadi said a couple of days ago that we are further into delta than we realize.
Ugh
I tried to stay away today. I watched the select Jan 6 committee. Not looking for discussion on that here as it isn’t my point. It was heart wrenching and I can only take so much in one day
Tokyo should never have hosted the Olympics this year. Japan hasn’t been able to control the virus amongst its own citizens due to very low vaccination rates. Now Simone Biles has dropped out of her final due to mental issues.
I guess we can kiss 2021 goodbye as far as ending this pandemic. Shall we kiss 2022 goodbye as well? 🙁
Will 2023 be the year? 😉
MASK UP until further notice??!!? 🙁
Philip. I have done some research on remote school on snow says. Some towns, sutton was one, has planned on two days for snow; and if any more, they’d be remote. It worked fine for heat but that was before Riley stepped in. He has said absolutely no remote…..no matter the reason. The teachers I spoke with said there would be no problem except making sure kids took their computers home.
So for now….not going to happen
Philip, please note the Spanish Flu lasted from February 2018 until April 1920. It didn’t really end then, but did peter out and was no longer the threat it had been. I sincerely do NOT think we’ll be in a pandemic in 2023. Nor do I think we’ll be in a pandemic state in most of 2022. I do think we’ll be in a pandemic through the end of this year, right through winter. But, even then, the pandemic’s acutely lethal phases in this country will have been in late 2020 and early 2021, and the spring and summer of 2020.
A high vaccination rate coupled with the fact that we’re dealing mostly with a younger cohort will mitigate the numbers of deaths we see here in the U.S. as well as Europe. In many countries that are unvaccinated or only have low rates deaths will still be very high (eg, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil).
Following up on what I’m saying about daily deaths in the U.S. They’re still too high and are increasing. But they are far below previous peaks, and will stay that way in all likelihood. This is why I find tweets like this click-bait. The tweet says that some models – I wonder which, because I don’t know of any that say this – predict 4,000 deaths a day in the U.S. by October. https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1420146245385998336
That’s not going to happen. For better modeling, modelers should incorporate UK and Israeli data on the Delta wave. It’s clear there that deaths are rising, but not nearly to the levels seen in previous waves. Why? Well, the elderly and most at-risk are well protected. Similar here. We haven’t protected these groups quite as well, but still. I think a better projection would be to say that hospitalizations and ICU usage will increase almost to, or perhaps exceed in some regions, previous peaks. The case fatality rate will be significantly lower, though. Not because Delta isn’t virulent. It is. But because it’s a much, much younger cohort of patients. We’re talking decades younger on average.
Florida hospitalizations – was able to find figures released yesterday – remarkably high (bad situation). But predictable. You may remember me and many others warning a couple of months ago that a Sunbelt wave would hit. https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1420169877277528067
C-19 for 7-28 is ready.
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New Guidance from CDC
https://twitter.com/apoorva_nyc/status/1420020364516773899
UK daily case numbers have gone down by 22% in 1 week. This is good news. Two caveats: School vacations started last week. There was mandatory testing in schools, sometimes 2x a week. 2. 13% fewer tests overall.
Overall, the picture is mixed. Hospitalizations across the UK above 1,000 today (836 in England), hospital admissions up 28% in past week, 131 deaths reported today.
https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1419701315790426119
Dutch hospitals report that in the week of 11 to 18 July approximately 75% of hospital admissions were unvaccinated individuals, 9% were fully vaccinated without immune deficiencies, 5% were fully vaccinated with immune deficiencies, and 11% were in an `unknown’ category. No differences were detected among vaccines – Netherlands uses 4: AZ, Pfizer, J&J, and Moderna – in terms of the risk of being hospitalized while fully vaccinated.
Aha! MANDATORY is the key word here. It needs to happen in this country within the private sector and school systems. The only way out of this pandemic once and for all.
Ideally I would love Biden to sign an executive order, but no way that will happen.
My mistake. I thought the UK was going to have mandatory “vaccinations” in schools. I misread. At least mandatory testing is better than nothing.
That’s okay, Philip. The UK’s vaccine policy is not mandatory across the board (though it is in certain settings), but comes pretty close to mandatory for older adults (>65) and at-risk groups. The government basically bombards you with messages – directly from the health service, or your primary care physician – about the fact that you should be vaccinated. When I lived in the Netherlands, it was similar with the childhood vaccines (these are mandatory in the Netherlands) for my children. I remember getting a slew of letters (warnings, essentially) from the government and the local pediatrician, as well as phone messages.
Vaccines were mandatory for Mac and family when they moved abroad to work. Well established vaccines are mandatory for kids starting school. There are exceptions as there should be.
Hard to glean much from the incomplete U.S. case data today. Florida is not reporting. Also didn’t on Sunday or Monday. Disgraceful. Florida represents about 20% of U.S. cases and hospitalizations. How it’s legal for them not to report in the midst of a public health crisis is beyond me.
What concerns me most about the U.S. is actually not the case growth so much as the reported hospital admissions and ICU usage increase. It’s through the roof in a growing number of states. Suggests we’re deeper into the Delta wave than we thought. Just not testing enough. Sound familiar?
Massachusetts case numbers are worrisome, as are the numbers of deaths reported each day (12 today). As I said before, this wave will not spare the highly vaccinated states. Connecticut is also experiencing similar numbers in spite of an excellent vaccination rate; N.Y., too.
Global daily deaths are about to go well above 9,000 today for the first time in a couple of months. In the U.S. daily deaths are not increasing as much as in previous waves, but they’re definitely rising again. The reason for the blunted increase in deaths is the age cohort in this wave. Much younger folks are hospitalized, also in ICU. They stand a much greater chance of surviving.
Hadi said a couple of days ago that we are further into delta than we realize.
Ugh
I tried to stay away today. I watched the select Jan 6 committee. Not looking for discussion on that here as it isn’t my point. It was heart wrenching and I can only take so much in one day
Tokyo should never have hosted the Olympics this year. Japan hasn’t been able to control the virus amongst its own citizens due to very low vaccination rates. Now Simone Biles has dropped out of her final due to mental issues.
I guess we can kiss 2021 goodbye as far as ending this pandemic. Shall we kiss 2022 goodbye as well? 🙁
Will 2023 be the year? 😉
MASK UP until further notice??!!? 🙁
Philip. I have done some research on remote school on snow says. Some towns, sutton was one, has planned on two days for snow; and if any more, they’d be remote. It worked fine for heat but that was before Riley stepped in. He has said absolutely no remote…..no matter the reason. The teachers I spoke with said there would be no problem except making sure kids took their computers home.
So for now….not going to happen
Philip, please note the Spanish Flu lasted from February 2018 until April 1920. It didn’t really end then, but did peter out and was no longer the threat it had been. I sincerely do NOT think we’ll be in a pandemic in 2023. Nor do I think we’ll be in a pandemic state in most of 2022. I do think we’ll be in a pandemic through the end of this year, right through winter. But, even then, the pandemic’s acutely lethal phases in this country will have been in late 2020 and early 2021, and the spring and summer of 2020.
A high vaccination rate coupled with the fact that we’re dealing mostly with a younger cohort will mitigate the numbers of deaths we see here in the U.S. as well as Europe. In many countries that are unvaccinated or only have low rates deaths will still be very high (eg, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil).
Following up on what I’m saying about daily deaths in the U.S. They’re still too high and are increasing. But they are far below previous peaks, and will stay that way in all likelihood. This is why I find tweets like this click-bait. The tweet says that some models – I wonder which, because I don’t know of any that say this – predict 4,000 deaths a day in the U.S. by October. https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1420146245385998336
That’s not going to happen. For better modeling, modelers should incorporate UK and Israeli data on the Delta wave. It’s clear there that deaths are rising, but not nearly to the levels seen in previous waves. Why? Well, the elderly and most at-risk are well protected. Similar here. We haven’t protected these groups quite as well, but still. I think a better projection would be to say that hospitalizations and ICU usage will increase almost to, or perhaps exceed in some regions, previous peaks. The case fatality rate will be significantly lower, though. Not because Delta isn’t virulent. It is. But because it’s a much, much younger cohort of patients. We’re talking decades younger on average.
Florida hospitalizations – was able to find figures released yesterday – remarkably high (bad situation). But predictable. You may remember me and many others warning a couple of months ago that a Sunbelt wave would hit. https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1420169877277528067
C-19 for 7-28 is ready.