Friday July 30 2021 Forecast (9:33AM)

54 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

Our latest bout of wet weather now out of our way, we look ahead and more changing weather is in store for southeastern New England as we finish off July and begin August. These final two days of July will feature comfortable air, if not a bit chilly, especially first thing tomorrow morning when, if you’re up and outside, you may wonder if it’s the end of August instead of July. First though, we have a pleasant day today with high temps in the 70s to near 80 and low humidity, however that pleasantness may be interrupted in a few locations by a passing shower, even brief downpour, triggered by a disturbance and pool of cold air aloft passing through the region – a weaker version of what we saw exactly one week ago. This system exits by evening and we see a clearing sky and diminishing breeze, allowing the temperatures to fall quite easily since dew points will also be quite low. Typical cool spots are heading for low temperatures of under 50, while the majority of the region bottoms out in the lower to middle 50s with some of the urban centers in the upper 50s – all quite cool for the final morning of July. But we’ll recover back to the 70s with lots of sun, a few clouds, and continued low humidity Saturday so it will be a very nice summer day despite the autumn-feeling start. It’s onto August on Sunday, a day that looks pretty decent now as we see the wind shift to south ahead of an approaching trough. This will warm it up and bring the humidity up a bit, but also the timing suggests that any threat of showers will hold off until nighttime, with a rain-free daytime – good news if you have outdoor plans. This trough will pull offshore by Monday which will be a seasonably warm day with fair weather and a sun/cloud mix, and then high pressure will build into the region with lots of sun and warmth along with moderate humidity for Tuesday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers and possibly brief downpours. Highs 74-81. Dew point falling from the lower 60s to lower 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 44-51 rural and lower elevation areas, 51-58 elsewhere with mildest in urban centers. Dew point falling into 40s. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear except fog patches forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 52-57. Dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 4-8)

Upper level flow becoming weaker and more southerly during this period. Seasonable warmth and somewhat higher humidity will be more dominant. Middle of the period is greatest chance for shower activity when we’ll have to watch a disturbance from the south.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 9-13)

Transition back toward more westerly flow by the middle of August probably means another round of unsettled weather somewhere during this period, favoring mid period. No major temperature departures from normal are indicated at this time.

Post navigation

Previous Post

54 thoughts on “Friday July 30 2021 Forecast (9:33AM)”

  1. Thank you, TK.

    I saw Toms comment on potential rotation in buzzards bay last night. Did anything develop?

    1. I didn’t hear anything. I took a look before I went to sleep. I didn’t notice anything.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    My area was spared much rain last evening/over night.

    0.05 inch is all.

    Horrible situation down in PA and NJ.

    Looking at the damage, looks like EF-3 to me, perhaps even borderline low end EF-4 in some locations (although perhaps it was more construction issues and NOT EF-4, but certainly EF-3). Will be interesting to see what the final NWS report has to say.

    1. I figured they’d get that one but fall shy of the rain total.

      I don’t like the phrase “most rainy days” and prefer the way he worded it as “days with measurable precipitation”.

      1988 was a hot summer, but we had a very active July pattern. I remember as a novice chasing a lot of storms with a classmate of mine from U Lowell. 🙂

      1. No sign of any 90+ as far out as I can see, at least widespread 90s or any lasting heat. A couple locations could sneak in a 90 on a day like next Wednesday or Thursday (if the next system’s arrival is later than expected).

        1. That’s good. I bet though the 90s will return with a vengeance in September, maybe into part of October. We don’t usually get off this easily without another round. 😉

          Still, even when temps are close to normal, when dewpoints are in the upper 60s – low 70s, it feels just as miserable.

          1. 90s in October are extraordinarily rare. Boston has only hit 90 3 times in the month of October since 1872 and was exactly 90 each time:

            10/1/1881
            10/12/1954
            10/7/1963

            Lowell has only hit 90 once in October since 1885, a 90-degree reading on 10/22/1979 (12 days after receiving 1.5″ of snow)

  6. Thank you, TK.

    Not much rain yesterday; 0.09. And so, at least from where I’m sitting in Back Bay, the 1921 record will in all likelihood stand. My total (measured by my rain gauge) for the month was very high – 10.88 – but that is shy of the record.

    1. This part of MA was caught between the 2 main areas yesterday. Short range guidance did a good job with that.

      We lucked out in that other than some non-damaging water spouts that may have occurred and not been seen, the South Coast region escaped potential damage. The bigger story was the flash flooding and regional flooding to the north from several hours of heavy rainfall on saturated ground. That will subside today and things improve significantly the next few days. Boston will land in 2nd place for July rainfall. 1921 & 2021 will be #1 & 2.

        1. Almost, but almost is not enough. 🙂
          It’s been a wet July, but it’s not been “the wettest”.

  10. If Boston is to break their July rainfall record, it would be like winning $1,000,000 on a scratch ticket. They will need the maximum possible pop up downpour to max out right over the rain gauge and redevelop in place a couple times this afternoon. Not happening. Tomorrow’s rain chance is 0%. They’ll end up in 2nd place. Lock it in.

    1. Recently celebrated an acquaintance’s 100th birthday. About 10 days ago I told this person that the last time it rained (almost) as much in Boston in July was the year she was born. She got a kick out of that. But, I also got the impression she wanted the 1921 record to stand. And so it will.

      1. Now that makes me smile. Imagine what her eyes have seen. For her, I hope the 1921 record holds. I understand what she feels.

    3. My 9 mile run felt pretty good for July 30th.

      And, next week will feel a whole lot better than the first week of August in 2006. Do you remember that brutally hot week?

      If all goes according to plan I’ll be in London on the 6th of August for 6 days, I’m curious about what kind of weather I’ll get there.

  13. This thin little line of showers is Logan’s final chance to break the July rainfall record. Not gonna happen. The record will stand.

    They got the “days with measurable rainfall” record by 1 day, beating the one set in 1988.

    2. And that was set just early this am I believe with a piddling amount of rain. But a record is a record

  15. Latest US Drought Monitor indicates most of SNE not lacking moisture at all (no surprise) except for the most of Cape Cod and Nantucket which are in abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions. Of course the drought goes on for northern VT, northern NH, and pretty much all of central and western Maine.

  16. Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    Wow – NWS confirms an EF-3 tornado in Bucks County, PA (Bensalem and Trevose) yesterday.

  17. From NWS Mount Holly NJ

    3:30 PM: A confirmed EF3 tornado in Bucks County in the Bensalem/Trevose area with peak winds to 140 mph. The storm damage survey team mentioned the most intense damage was to car dealerships and an adjacent mobile home park. More details tonight. #pawx

    We have confirmed 2 tornadoes in Ocean County, NJ in the Waretown and Cedar Bridge area in Barnegat Township. Both rated EF1 with winds of 100-105 mph. More details tonight. Multiple storm survey’s continue. #njwx

    1. Haha. I know Maccis a rookie so we will set. But….if it comes down to Mac, Folks wanting to criticize Mac within my earshot might want to think twice 🙂 🙂 😉
      😈

  21. 00z NAM is starting to suggest we split the uprights on Sunday night and have one area of rain miss to the southeast and another one mostly miss to the northwest.

Comments are closed.