Wednesday August 25 2021 Forecast (7:36AM)

38 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 25-29)

Heat and humidity will be the theme of the weather today and Thursday with high pressure over the region. A cold front will cross the region Thursday night into Friday but conditions are not going to be very supportive for shower and thunderstorm activity so this change will just feature some cloudiness and only the slight chance of a shower, then the edge coming off the heat with lowering humidity during Friday. A stronger back-door cold front will push through from northeast to southwest Friday night, setting up a much cooler weekend, although I’m not feeling as optimistic about a mostly sunny weekend as I was previously. It appears that frontal boundary will only make it to a position just south of the South Coast and a couple of weak low pressure disturbances may move along it. This will mean that the weekend would feature a lot of clouds, and maybe even a few showers, with the shower threat weighted toward Saturday at this stage. There will still be some fine-tuning to do for that part of the outlook.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 86-93. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Ground fog patches. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 87-94. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower possible. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point falling through 60s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point falling to middle 50s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower, favoring southern MA southward. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Dew point middle 50s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

Current timing brings warm front across the region by early August 30 with showers then higher humidity before approaching cold front brings a shower and thunderstorm threat sometime later August 30 into August 31. High pressure builds in with drier weather for the first few days of September.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

Disturbances time out for around September 4 & 7 with shower threats, otherwise high pressure in general control with mostly dry weather.

38 thoughts on “Wednesday August 25 2021 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Heat and humidity has been the “theme” of this entire summer. 🙁

    Today marks 4 months until Christmas.

    2. We haven’t really had any long stretches of combined heat and humidity.

      The theme has been above normal rainfall.

    1. She’s doing very well!
      A little bit more energy yesterday then she had on her first full day back home. 🙂

  8. Area of disturbed weather just west/northwest of Aruba.

    GFS and Euro showing impact in western Gulf coast area. GFS showing intense hurricane in about 4-5 days.

    I know the folks in Texas have enough on their plates with Covid, but I hope they are starting to pay attention to feature.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    Humidity has been a (continuing) theme this summer, as has rain – especially in July – and heat in June. While there have been some really nice days it’s not been a summer to write home about. I feel that when we can remember and even pinpoint the beautiful days in a summer, that’s an indication that the summer hasn’t been terrific. And there’s nothing wrong with that. All summers are not created equal, just like the other seasons.

    1. Yup.
      I gave up on that.
      They say it’s ok.
      As a scientist, I don’t agree.
      But they who are in charge say the error is acceptable. None of my colleagues from the private sector agree. None of them. They all share my opinion. It is now to the point where a handful of them have contacted NWS and have been told that there is no problem. It is what it is.

      The problem could be fixed by regular calibration checking and adjusting. They have been told that that is being performed but I do not believe it is being performed. None of my private sector colleagues believe that it is being performed either. We’re talking hundreds and hundreds of years of experience in this field with the same opinion. That should tell you something…

      1. I do have another email address of a person at Taunton. I received three more emails. One thinks there is a problem, two do not. I wrote late to both who do not as I have tremendous respect for them and was curious. One mentioned it is checked regularly. Both mentioned they get questions re reliability only when we are seeing a heat wave or potential heat wave. I have not watched this time, but last 90ish days a bit ago, Logan was right in line with Winthrop and South Boston. I did just look at JPDs area and most readings were above that. I also checked Sutton. My house is running four degrees below an area I’m familiar with that is 6 miles away…less as the crow flies

        As I zero in on the sensor at Logan, it appears to be in the runway section???

        1. I should have said the met who does not see a problem was one I mentioned previously who hadn’t responded but that a colleague had explained his view. I will write to the noaa individual later today

      2. Thank you TK. Could it possibly be a location issue?
        I do not know the exact location of the sensor.
        There is an awful lot of asphalt around. If the sensor
        is too close to any of it, it could easily affect the readings, especially with a lighter wind as there was this morning.
        just a thought.

        Clearly something is amiss.

  13. Another very concerning run of the GFS (12z) for the Gulf coast.

    Certainly, the GFS and other models had a higher intensity for Henri than it turned out to be. Hopefully, no 930s mb hurricane as projected.

    1. What are the sensors in those surrounding areas?
      Are they in the sun without radiation shields?
      It all makes a difference.

      1. I have no idea. Basically, the temps are they same as Logan’s. This is the link SAK uses and gave us to use.

  15. Euro has been a more northern solution than the GFS with respect to the potential gulf of mexico tropical solution.

    As mentioned above, the GFS has come north to projecting a Gulf States landfall.

    But, the 12z Euro, by far, had its deepest intensity projection.

    Looking ominous.

    1. Do you mean the GFS was deepest? Either way, seems like rapid intensification happens on both those models in the northern gulf.

      2. Yes, the GFS is very intense.

        Euro, compared to its previous runs, was a lot stronger, down in the mid 960s mb, I believe.

  16. 00z models (GFS, CMC, and ICON) as well as the 12z Euro all agreeing on a major hurricane forming in the Gulf and making landfall somewhere along the LA coast early next week. You don’t often see this level of consistency and model consensus with respect to track and strength forecasts at 5 days out. I’d be getting concerned if I lived on the Gulf coastline anywhere between east Texas and Mississippi.

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