Sunday August 29 2021 Forecast (8:49AM)

112 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

Showers that I did not forecast very well got into the area last night wetting down some Saturday evening plans – not one of my better short-term forecasts! Ah well! Those have moved out for now and we are left with a mainly cloudy Sunday as a warm front approaches the region, and I do think any shower activity today will be limited to this evening and tonight as the front moves through. This will introduce warmer and humid air to the region for Monday, a day which carries a shower and thunderstorm chance as we will be in a smaller warm wedge of air between that warm front and an approaching cold front. We’ll have to keep an eye on the situation tomorrow as a few strong or severe thunderstorms are possible. The cells should be isolated to scattered during the day with the possibility of a more organized broken or perhaps solid line crossing at least parts of the region from late afternoon into evening. This front should clear the region by early Tuesday, a day that will still be warm but less humid to end of the month of August. The first couple of days of September will find our attention on the remains of Hurricane Ida (making landfall today as a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Louisiana coast). The remains should have an impact with some rainfall in our area Wednesday into Thursday, the timing and exact orientation of which still will have to be pinned down. Early estimate: Wednesday PM to Thursday AM, heaviest in southeastern areas, but don’t lock this in yet. Anything from a shift northward with heaviest rain north and showery weather here to a complete miss to the south remains on the table.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers mainly south and west of Boston by later in the day. Highs 70-77, coolest eastern coastal areas. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 80-87. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain chances go up as the day goes on. Highs 70-77. Dew point rising to lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

High pressure should bring dry weather and a warming trend September 3-5 though a brief interruption of clouds and a shower threat may occur between late September 4 and early September 5 as humidity increases. Frontal system interacts with higher humidity bringing a shower chance later in the period, but not completely sure on timing this far out. Continued early call on Labor Day Weekend (September 4-6) is not too bad overall.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

Cooler/drier trend early to mid period, warm-up late period. Mostly dry weather is expected.

112 thoughts on “Sunday August 29 2021 Forecast (8:49AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Lets hope Ida´s remnants get shunted south, because the signals have been showing multi inch rains if they don´t.

    1. Those models are not going to do a stellar job on rainfall amounts that far out. These remains will be moving right along and won’t have time to deliver insane rains to the New England area.

  2. Don’t get too hung up on 150 MPH vs 155 MPH in terms of impact. Essentially the same. The core of that hurricane is small. The problem is not coming from a 5 MPH difference in wind a handful of meters above the ground, but the impact the system is having in the region.

    If it is classified as a CAT 5, then it will be one more on a very short list of CAT 5’s to ever make landfall, and will share something in common with all other CAT 5’s to ever make landfall in the US. All of them were tropical storms just 3 days prior to landfall. It shows you how rarely the combination of rapid intensification of that level and landfall occur that close together.

  3. wdsu.com

    evidently, the abc affiliate out of New Orleans. Same interactive radar as our ch 5.

    Giving great radar shot of hurricane, eye wall, etc

  8. Thoughts and prayers with the people of Louisiana. Hard to believe Ida is making landfall 16 years to the date Katrina did.

    2. Oh my God.

      Grand Isle looks lined up for the eastern eye wall. There’s video showing water already a couple feet deep under raised houses. I hope those houses are high enough where the surge doesn’t top the attics or roof-tops.

      2. I heard a warning not to go in attic unless you have a way to the roof. I hadn’t thought of that.

  12. My brother lives in Lafayette, LA.
    He is not home as he and his wife are currently up in New Hampshire.

    I “think” Lafayette might be far enough West of the Center
    to spare his location the worst, but each track differs a bit.

    We shall see.

  13. Last night, Jacob noted that all of the “I” storms have been retired.

    Ida certainly likely to join the retirement group of hurricanes.

  14. Grand Isle, Louisiana’s elevation is 7 ft.

    Storm surge forecast is 12-16 ft, add on the waves and then they probably take on the fiercest winds.

    2. My youngest this morning said Brian said this might move a bit west. I looked at her oddly and asked Brian? She repeated Brian and I asked Brian who??? She laughed, shook her head and said “Your Brian, mom!” In my defense, I only just woke up and they do have two friends named Brian.

    1. Hopefully any deaths will be greatly reduced this time compared to Katrina which resulted in around 1,800 if I heard correctly on the news this morning. Ideally “0” would be welcome.

      1. We can hope for zero. Sadly it won’t be zero.
        Part of this can be blamed on the very poor plan of action, or what seems to be a non-plan.

        We can’t control weather, but we can get out of its way when given enough warning. That becomes hard when the folks “in charge” make it exceedingly difficult to do so. That’s the sad thing here.

        2. I was surprised yesterday when the mayor said the city didn’t have enough time to issue mandatory evac orders for folks inside the levee barrier. Maybe that is true and days seem to all lump together but I thought I’d been hearing about the possibility of ida heading that way for a fair amount of days.

          I did hear Some of the folks apparently cannot afford to leave. Others just can’t leave their homes. I wonder what age range feels that way.

  17. On TWC, they have a live cam from Grand Isle, LA and twice, there´s been something wooden in the water (perhaps part of a wooden dock) flying by.

    The speed it passed by in the water is what was eye-opening. Simply flew by. No standing by a human being in that water.

    1. The innermost eyewall is maybe 20-25 miles south of them.

      It could go right over them or just to the west.

      Either way, the wind will veer to the South and there should be a huge, quickly escalating surge beyond what the webcam is showing now. Next 30 min to 1 hr.

  21. Thanks TK.

    Ida approaching landfall as a Cat 4 with a classic example of concentric eyewalls. It’s in the process of an eyewall replacement cycle, which it will run out of time to complete. Definitely thinking of all those in southeast Louisiana today. This will not be anywhere near Katrina, but it will be a very impactful, and in some cases, life altering storm.

    1. Just mentioned the ERC to somebody. And I agree with your assessment. Not Katrina, but still very serious.

      1. Katrina hit as a Cat 3, if my memory is correct, and Ida is
        a Cat 4. Is the reason it won’t be Katrina because the wind field is more compact and the strongest winds do not extend
        as far out from the center as Katrina did?

        1. Yes.

          Double eye wall, tighter inner core, angle of approach, a tiny bit further south, and while it doesn’t help all that much because storm surge is still serious, it’s not “high tide” right now. But every little bit of positive helps.

          A storm being at a higher category does not in itself make it “worse”. All details have to be taken into account.

          We’ve had tropical depressions that have resulted in far more serious flooding and greater damage and loss of life than hurricanes hitting the same areas.

        2. That is correct. Katrina was massive. Ida isn’t tiny, but it’s not huge. While Katrina did weaken before landfall, a lot of its impacts had already been baked in due to its size and peak strength. Comparing on a parameter like total kinetic energy, the two storms aren’t even in the same ballpark.

  27. Getting pretty windy in New Orleans

    New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA
    (KNEW) 30.04944N 90.02889W
    2 Day History

    Last Updated: Aug 29 2021, 10:53 am CDT
    Sun, 29 Aug 2021 10:53:00 -0500
    Weather: Light Rain and Windy
    Temperature: 82.0 °F (27.8 °C)
    Dewpoint: 75.0 °F (23.9 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 79 %
    Heat Index: 89 F (32 C)
    Wind: from the East at 42.6 gusting to 58.7 MPH (37 gusting to 51 KT)
    Visibility: 7.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1004.3 mb
    Altimeter: 29.68 in Hg

    1. not too far ESE of New Orleans and where the Gulf connects with Lake Pontchartrain is Shell Beach. Its current surge is already at +6.68 ft.

        2. That more westward component is very apparent.

          Get that thing over land since it’s inevitable. The rapid weakening will begin and we can start to remove the most powerful wind from the equation.

  28. I think the tide guage and sensor at Grand Isle, LA may have been damaged and somehow turned.

    Its showing a N wind, which is virtually unlikely with where the center is.

  30. Technically, landfall has been called.

    But given high storm surge and the large amounts of water in that part of LA, this thing has another 30 minutes over very shallow water.

  33. Law enforcement and spotters are reporting wind gusts in Grand Isle around 200 MPH. this storm means business. I fear for those that are in that area. Wondering how the Marine science center for the University of New Orleans is taking this storm as its on a salt marsh.

    1. It’s very difficult for wind instruments to withstand winds that strong so I’d love to know what these gusts are being recorded on.

      I’ve already seen a false report of 161 MPH sustained winds somewhere on the net. We definitely don’t need bad data coming in. This storm means business regardless – it’s happening now.

      I’d just like to know if those are “measured” or “estimated” winds. Most wind equipment fails once you get to between 145 & 160.

      1. I have heard the folks at the grand isle PD giving recorded gusts that are quite high. It may be the information is coming directly from them.

        1. I would expect the gusts to be that high for sure, especially there. They were ground zero for the inner core on the forward side of the storm.

          Just want to make sure we are separating gusts from sustained winds. I’ve no doubt there are gusts above 150 in that core when it came through that area.

          1. What I have heard has been clear from there that it is gusts. I moved away from coverage for a while to get a few things done. I had not heard 200 but some numbers gave me pause

      2. I agree, I been mainly seeing around 150 which makes more sense, but gave it a little bit more weight when I saw it on NBC as well.

        1. Yes, I agree with that.

          As much as I don’t tend to favor TWC, I watched a bit of their coverage this morning and they were doing a decent job of keeping things real. Credit where it’s due.

  34. ECMWF not likely handling the speed and strength of Ida’s remnant low very well.

    GFS seems to have a better handle on reality regarding the system.

    1. That remnant low is important in steering that AEW moving off the coast of Afrika. I hope the trough/front is as potent as these models are showing.to keep the storms away from the eastern Caribbean.

      1. Hope so. A long way to go before we can really know what that potential system will do. I’m pretty certain Julian, TD 10, and the weak thing off the US East Coast are all non-factors. The longer term thing to watch is the one about to emerge. Of course, short term we have our hands full with Ida and then tracking its remnants.

        1. oh for sure they are non factors in terms of impacts for the Caribbean/USA but they could be factors that help prevent that potential system away from land keeping it a fish storm. At least thats what I hope 🙂

  35. Just saw that PD clocked 148 on grande isle before gauge broke so seems 200 didn’t come from them

  36. The eye and the radar presentation look just as good now as it did an hour ago. Eye still partially to 2/3rds over this bay to the west of Grand Isle.

    Recon flight headed for maybe 1 last eye pass before eye really gets over land

  39. Interesting that the NHC has the remnants of Ida as a mere depression right over NYC but then strengthens again as a tropical storm as she approaches Nova Scotia. Could they be in for a “hit” relatively speaking?

  44. From WWL Tv In New Orleans
    BREAKING: All of New Orleans is without power due to “catastrophic damage” to Entergy’s transmission system.

    1. I know hospitals have generators, but can’t help but think they don’t run everything. I hope I’m wrong.

    1. More rapid weakening started overnight, as soon as the center got away from the flatlands / marshy areas. TS now and weakening will be more steady.

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