Tuesday August 31 2021 Forecast (7:29AM)

83 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

The final day of August will be one of the nicer days of the summer with a sun/cloud mix, lowering humidity, but still warm, as a weak area of high pressure moves in. This high pressure area will move away by early Wednesday and we will then eye the approach of the low pressure area that was once Hurricane Ida from the southwest. As this area of low pressure and its associated moisture stretches out along a frontal boundary as it moves into and through the region Wednesday night into Thursday, it becomes more difficult to pinpoint where the axis of heaviest rainfall will be. Similar to a winter system there can be a rather sharp drop off in precipitation gradient, and even the timing is still a little in question, with some guidance taking the system out of here rather quickly Thursday afternoon while other models linger the rainfall into Thursday evening. Currently, my leaning is slightly faster on the timing, but still a significant rainfall (over 1 inch and up to a few inches of rain) especially in the I-95 & I-90 belts south and east. Tweaks to come if needed. Drier air arrives Friday but still have to watch for a pop up shower due to marginal instability being worked on by daytime heating. High pressure brings great weather Saturday to start off Labor Day Weekend.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 80-87. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with rain likely, tapering off late day when clouds may break especially northwest of Boston. Areas of fog through midday. Highs 65-72. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partial clearing. Areas of fog. Any lingering rain ends. Lows 58-65. Dew point lower 60s to upper 50s. Wind N to NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers. Highs 71-78. Dew point near 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

Sunday of Labor Day Weekend (Sep 5) will be fair, mild, and a tiny bit more humid as high pressure shifts and the wind blows from the southwest. Labor Day Monday features warm and humid weather with a chance of passing showers and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches the region. Trend is to drier/cooler for the middle of next week but the transition may be a little delayed to get there with one more disturbance to come through. Will keep an eye on that.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

Cool/dry interlude early period, warming up again mid to late period as a larger area of high pressure drifts from northwest to southeast across the Northeast. A period of showers may accompany the shift from cooler to warmer weather.

83 thoughts on “Tuesday August 31 2021 Forecast (7:29AM)”

  7. Thank you, TK.

    I’m not sure if I missed an answer yesterday. I have a long email respond from Taunton re Logan sensor. I can post it here. But I can also create a pdf if someone knows how to create a pdf link that I can put here. It won’t take up as much space that way

  9. Simple enough that I managed to create the PDF and upload for a link. GREAT resource. Thank you, JPD.

    This should explain much of what has been questioned. It is pretty much what several of the meteorologists in Boston explained to me also as they are aware of the testing schedule. I did smile when it was mentioned that two sensors are used as comparisons. I remember suggesting someone from WHW might head there and do the same but can’t take credit. Mac taught me well!!! The individual is VERY responsive and clearly went to a lot of work to answer my question. I mentioned JP to all I wrote to (no names – just location) since it has been used here several times. The response here is the same as two mets gave me. If anyone has more questions, I’m comfortable sending them along.

    https://ibb.co/QDcQhPF

    2. Thank you. Very thoughtful answer.
      Interesting that he mentioned the city buildings and the airport pavements, things we have mentioned here. Also most interesting that he mentioned that the technicians compared temperature to calibrated instruments that they brought with them.

      I can certainly confirm from personal experience that there is a difference in temperature from the City Heat Island downtown and the Boston neighborhoods. The wind coming to Logan over the heated city buildings and pavements certainly can add a degree or 2 or 3 to the temperature.

      So I dunno. There are times when I think the Logan thermometer is fine, BUT even I see that it is clearly wacked out at times.

      I wonder if it is some sort of micro scale temperature anomaly due to the sensor location, proximity to downtown buildings, heat build up on the airport pavements etc etc etc? Something is going on, even if the sensor is calibrated properly.

      Thank you again

  10. The outdoor concert that was scheduled for tomorrow evening is getting moved to Friday. They apparently don’t want to risk interactions of weather, instruments, and sound system on either Wednesday or Thursday.

  12. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Just saw a breaking news report that the patriots are releasing Cam Newton.

    1. Do you know why? DId it have anything to do with not
      being vaccinated? OR was it just a performance issue and the Pat’s thing the new guy is the man for the job?

      2. To me it was a no brainer. He was not a good QB and I couldn’t stomach another 7-9 season watching a college offense

          1. I thought I heard Dallas just let one go but don’t hold me to that . This made my day as he is not what the patriots need , they tried & it totally was not a good fit or even close . I think this kid Mac is going to have a successful career.

        2. I haven’t been following much since the pandemic hit, but from the little I have seen, I agree with all of you.

  13. My guess is they are looking at the long term make up of the team and that position, and with his age and talent level that is only going to improve with training and experience, they made the choice to go with him. I think he has great potential, fingers crossed.

    1. Bob was a Cat 3 prior to landfall, but I think it weakened a bit to a strong Cat 2 at landfall. Carol was a legit Cat 3 at landfall.

  15. Let’s hope the o line can give him the protection time he needs and avoid injuries. Brady took a few good hits in his days with us and was able to escape major injuries.

  17. How about some Wankum logic.

    Last night he said that a model suggested that the rain tomorrow night/Thursday might last longer and then said it would be a good thing because the rain would be spread out over a longer period.

    Huh! Let me see, a high intensity rain over a longer period is better than over a shorter period??????????????????????????

    WOW!

      1. he talks to his audience like they are a bunch of 5 year olds. I can’t stand it. I Cringe when he is the one on air.

      2. He’s a great meteorologist Vicki . Don’t get why people talk crap about him . He’s a great family man as well & lives down here in Scituate

  18. Most of the 12Z model runs want to give the Boston area
    3-4+ inches of rain tomorrow night into Thursday, with even higher amount towards the South Coast.

  22. WBZ TV reporting the release of Cam Newton as “shocking news” and then going to a clip of interviews to see how the fans are handling the very surprising news.

    “I knew he would go… But I didn’t think it would be… TODAY!”

    Ummmm…..

  25. From Ryan Hanrahan

    A significant flash flood risk from PA to Southern New England exists Wednesday night and Thursday morning from Ida’s remnants. South of a warm front a tornado threat exists as well from DC to potentially as far north as NYC and coastal SNE.

      1. SPC tornado risk for tomorrow. Look at that enhanced area
        in the mid Atlantic. WxWatcher will have to be sharp tomorrow. 🙂

  29. Continuing to favor the faster time timing.

    ECMWF is notorious for moving remnants far too slowly. It was doing that in a bad way a few days ago but has adjusted since.

    Right now I’m comfortable with a two to four inch rainfall event over the majority of the WHW forecast area with the amounts closer to 4 inches likely to be closer to the south coast. There will likely also be a drop-off to under 2 inches for north central Massachusetts and southwestern New Hampshire. The bulk of the rain should be out of here by the end of the morning on Thursday.

    You may have seen some tweets about a foot of rain in parts of the Northeast. Not buying it.

  32. Wouldn´t it be great if we were getting all the precip for the northeast, out of the atmosphere´s system leading into winter ?

    I could take 42F and sunny all cold season long.

    Seriously though, another big rainfall. This is unbelievable. I read TK´s thoughts above and I trust him more than the models, but going into this event, the projected rain totals look biggest against the big rain events we have already had.

    1. We’ve had more 1 inch plus rain events this summer than I can ever remember in my lifetime.

      Today has been a very nice day, and there have been some glorious ones this summer. But, overall, it’s not been a summer worth remembering.

  33. The one thing that has me confused is that areas that are being projected to receive multi-inch rains have projected dew-points in the 50s to low 60s. Seems to get that much rain, dew-points should be a little higher.

  34. As I sit here at Gate 3 at McCoy International Airport for my flight home, I’m wondering – did I miss anything in the past 6 days? Did anything interesting happen at all?

  36. Is it just my imagination, or am I seeing some nice autumnal temps in the long range? Speaking of Just My Imagination, below is a link to my favorite Rolling Stones’ cover. It’s a Temptations song. The video was taped during the famous American Still Life Tour in 1981. Ernie Watts is brilliant on saxophone. Watts is a very accomplished jazz/R&B saxophonist.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eF4vxurUX1I

  37. I’ve got a vacation coming up in just over a week… after the month/two we’ve had here, I need it 😉

    Yes, tomorrow will be a busy day down here. As JP Dave mentioned earlier, we’re pretty much “ground zero” on the tornado risk, and are certainly in line for the flooding risk as well.

    I agree with TK on a general 2-4″ rain for SNE. Maybe generally favoring closer to the 4 than the 2. Either way, it’s a soaker.

    2. Good luck tomorrow and enjoy your rest next week. You deserve it, after the summer you’ve had down there!

  38. Note…

    Local media is not in agreement on one particular aspect of the upcoming event.

    I watched 2 of them, one specifically said no tornado threat because we’d be on the cool side of the low (which I agree with). The other said we will have to watch for “quick spin-ups”. (I don’t agree with that.)

  40. Quick question TK. My daughter starts school tonight in Boston from roughly 6-9. I am a bit worried about her driving home to Natick then as she is an inexperienced driver. When do you see the heavier downpours starting? Thanks.

    1. I think the solid heavier stuff will be after 9 or 10. Before that just lighter to moderate rain with a few heavier showers embedded. Advise her to take it slow, but it should be ok.

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