Yes, it was Gottlieb. He’s done this several times, going back to May of 2020. He even predicted in June (!) we wouldn’t be impacted by Delta this summer. He’s certainly an expert, and someone I follow and trust in terms of judgment. But, on predictions, he (like so many others) has been very wrong. Also, “run its course” is such a nebulous term. Does it mean we’ll be at <20,000 cases/day, with <20,000 hospitalizations? I am extremely doubtful that we'll be that fortunate.
I wish he (and others) wouldn't predict the trajectory at this point. It's not constructive, and can in some instances lead to false hopes.
Delta has NOT run its course yet in Britain. It is on a very long plateau, at a significantly elevated level (though not as high as it was in early July). If we've learned anything in this pandemic, it's that we will follow what has happened in other countries. Moreover, with fewer vaccinated our trajectory will be worse than the UK's. This is what I had hoped Gottlieb would say.
Thank you Joshua. I was fairly certain he had done this before but repeatedly is irresponsible
Thanksgiving…2022? 🙁
I think he meant this thanksgiving but may be wrong
Thanks TK!
We know covid is spreading in schools. Harvard went remote for its first year MBA students because of a school cluster.
Schools without masks are 3x more likely to spread the virus.
Indeed!!
Absolutely. And they eat lunch without masks. I know many schools are being quite creative keeping kids apart During lunch. Some just do not have the space.
And some, seemingly don’t care.
I think we are forgetting how difficult this is for many parents. I was chatting with a friend in South Carolina. She said she made the most difficult decision of her life. She sent her six year old to her mom’s home in VA for the school year. VA is far more responsible when it comes to schools.
She isn’t alone. It continues to upset me that in the months between end of one year and three start of the next, we didn’t bother to figure a way to accommodate all students and not just one group.
These three tweets build on the previous. Excellent discussion by Eric Topol of third vaccine for elderly. I may have missed the recommended time between second and third . My mind is elsewhere today. I shake my head when folks announce we need to move on and just let this play out. How amusing that it is always younger folks.
That is why the Mrs. and I are more worried than your average
Joe or Josephine. 🙂
Agree. I am at risk, but a couple of my grandkids are also.
Slow rollout at first, but a very strong finish. That’s how I’d describe the EU vaccination campaign. This explains why the EU is doing better than the UK and much better than the US in terms of Covid-19 indicators. I think a principal reason is very strict enforcement of vaccination and/or negative coronavirus test status, at every restaurant, museum, concert or sport venue (indoor AND outdoor), and many other retail stores as well. If, for example, a restaurant doesn’t commit to enforce, or simply doesn’t enforce the local government shuts down the business. Plain and simple. Happened to a popular restaurant this weekend in Utrecht (where I used to live).
Our system is generally more tolerant of multiple viewpoints, even when they’re not mainstream or out of line with an official position, even among members of a cabinet. On the other hand, members of a cabinet who step out of line are almost immediately sacked in the Netherlands.
Heading to Paris in mid October and yes you need a vaccine to do anything. Applied for our vaccine card so we go where we want. As soon as the French announced you can’t do anything without a vaccine they got in line. Something that should be done here.
Sure do agree with you on that. I’d be even happier if if applied state to state
A friend just returned from visiting her family in Sweden (dual citizenship) and Paris. She said there is vaccine hesitancy in both, but folks were very respectful. Enjoy.
There is vaccine hesitancy everywhere. I recall Hadi mentioning that even Switzerland has considerable vaccine hesitancy (I believe he and his family went there this summer). But, policies and cultures differ with respect to how to address this. Our government – for better or worse – is much more decentralized than European governments. Approaches to vaccine hesitancy reflect this in that they are piecemeal and not systematically implemented or enforced. On the other hand, the provinces in France, for example, have very limited powers vis-a-vis the central government in Paris: On health, on education, on any number of areas. Also, implementation of centrally determined “directives” is easier to accomplish than here in the U.S. Further, there isn’t as much widespread mistrust in government. It’s not as if the French like to be told what to do, but they generally will comply with reasonable demands. Harder to achieve here. We can’t even get a national gun licensing law, let alone a vaccine mandate that applies across the board.
Vaccine hesitancy exists everywhere. But as you can see by overall vaccination rates in many European countries people pull their big kid pants up and get it done when push comes to shove.
Yes Switzerland had issues at first but their numbers continue to increase bc they don’t have the same polarizing media that we have here.
And if they are not vaccinated, they respect the steps they need to take to protect others
I should have added that ……That was my point. We don’t have that here in far too many places from unvaccinated and often in vaccinated.
You shouldn’t be able to fly, get on a train you name it without being vaccinated. No restaurants, bars, clubs, concerts, sporting events, conferences, museums etc…
Agree, Hadi. And, frankly, it’s not that complicated.
According to a USA Today article, dozens of school bus drivers have died of Covid-19 in the past month in 10 states.
Long before the Delta wave – was reported in March 2021 – 110 school bus drivers nationwide had died of Covid-19. Yet another example of frontline workers (first responders, healthcare workers, grocery store clerks, public transit workers) dying in very high numbers. This is why they all should be getting a booster; at least offered one.
School bus drivers in MA were not considered close contact. I don’t know about other states, but wrap your head around that for a few Minutes.
Covid in Kids is usually not caught until they are in class …if it is caught in school. If it isn’t in school, those kids then pass by the driver and sit on the bus for who knows how long on them way home.
Again….they are not considered close contacts.
We have an amazing driver. Amazing is really not enough. When we were fighting to find vaccine slots and I found one, I let our lady know. I wasn’t going anywhere and she needed it far more than I.
I’m sorry but there is so so so so so much wrong with our approach to schools and kids and this is one of the horrific results of that failure
C-19 for 9-28 is ready.
Comments are closed.
Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
Was it Gotleib who said in early summer that we’d see Deltas end in two week? Anyone’s thoughts on thanksgiving?
https://twitter.com/carolinerkenny/status/1442268822250000389?s=21
Yes, it was Gottlieb. He’s done this several times, going back to May of 2020. He even predicted in June (!) we wouldn’t be impacted by Delta this summer. He’s certainly an expert, and someone I follow and trust in terms of judgment. But, on predictions, he (like so many others) has been very wrong. Also, “run its course” is such a nebulous term. Does it mean we’ll be at <20,000 cases/day, with <20,000 hospitalizations? I am extremely doubtful that we'll be that fortunate.
I wish he (and others) wouldn't predict the trajectory at this point. It's not constructive, and can in some instances lead to false hopes.
Delta has NOT run its course yet in Britain. It is on a very long plateau, at a significantly elevated level (though not as high as it was in early July). If we've learned anything in this pandemic, it's that we will follow what has happened in other countries. Moreover, with fewer vaccinated our trajectory will be worse than the UK's. This is what I had hoped Gottlieb would say.
Thank you Joshua. I was fairly certain he had done this before but repeatedly is irresponsible
Thanksgiving…2022? 🙁
I think he meant this thanksgiving but may be wrong
Thanks TK!
We know covid is spreading in schools. Harvard went remote for its first year MBA students because of a school cluster.
https://twitter.com/universalhub/status/1442265756926947329?s=21
imho, schools are a petri dish for covid.
So true.
Schools without masks are 3x more likely to spread the virus.
Indeed!!
Absolutely. And they eat lunch without masks. I know many schools are being quite creative keeping kids apart During lunch. Some just do not have the space.
And some, seemingly don’t care.
I think we are forgetting how difficult this is for many parents. I was chatting with a friend in South Carolina. She said she made the most difficult decision of her life. She sent her six year old to her mom’s home in VA for the school year. VA is far more responsible when it comes to schools.
She isn’t alone. It continues to upset me that in the months between end of one year and three start of the next, we didn’t bother to figure a way to accommodate all students and not just one group.
These three tweets build on the previous. Excellent discussion by Eric Topol of third vaccine for elderly. I may have missed the recommended time between second and third . My mind is elsewhere today. I shake my head when folks announce we need to move on and just let this play out. How amusing that it is always younger folks.
https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1442510283709169666?s=21
https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1442510624794103809?s=21
https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1442513505421127682?s=21
That is why the Mrs. and I are more worried than your average
Joe or Josephine. 🙂
Agree. I am at risk, but a couple of my grandkids are also.
Slow rollout at first, but a very strong finish. That’s how I’d describe the EU vaccination campaign. This explains why the EU is doing better than the UK and much better than the US in terms of Covid-19 indicators. I think a principal reason is very strict enforcement of vaccination and/or negative coronavirus test status, at every restaurant, museum, concert or sport venue (indoor AND outdoor), and many other retail stores as well. If, for example, a restaurant doesn’t commit to enforce, or simply doesn’t enforce the local government shuts down the business. Plain and simple. Happened to a popular restaurant this weekend in Utrecht (where I used to live).
Note, there is opposition to the “coronapas” (green pass) system in the Netherlands. but, toleration of opposition is not something you see. Exhibit A is the firing of a junior minister for opposing the coronavirus rules. https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2021/09/junior-minister-mona-keijzer-sacked-for-coronavirus-pass-comments/
Our system is generally more tolerant of multiple viewpoints, even when they’re not mainstream or out of line with an official position, even among members of a cabinet. On the other hand, members of a cabinet who step out of line are almost immediately sacked in the Netherlands.
Heading to Paris in mid October and yes you need a vaccine to do anything. Applied for our vaccine card so we go where we want. As soon as the French announced you can’t do anything without a vaccine they got in line. Something that should be done here.
Sure do agree with you on that. I’d be even happier if if applied state to state
A friend just returned from visiting her family in Sweden (dual citizenship) and Paris. She said there is vaccine hesitancy in both, but folks were very respectful. Enjoy.
There is vaccine hesitancy everywhere. I recall Hadi mentioning that even Switzerland has considerable vaccine hesitancy (I believe he and his family went there this summer). But, policies and cultures differ with respect to how to address this. Our government – for better or worse – is much more decentralized than European governments. Approaches to vaccine hesitancy reflect this in that they are piecemeal and not systematically implemented or enforced. On the other hand, the provinces in France, for example, have very limited powers vis-a-vis the central government in Paris: On health, on education, on any number of areas. Also, implementation of centrally determined “directives” is easier to accomplish than here in the U.S. Further, there isn’t as much widespread mistrust in government. It’s not as if the French like to be told what to do, but they generally will comply with reasonable demands. Harder to achieve here. We can’t even get a national gun licensing law, let alone a vaccine mandate that applies across the board.
Vaccine hesitancy exists everywhere. But as you can see by overall vaccination rates in many European countries people pull their big kid pants up and get it done when push comes to shove.
Yes Switzerland had issues at first but their numbers continue to increase bc they don’t have the same polarizing media that we have here.
And if they are not vaccinated, they respect the steps they need to take to protect others
I should have added that ……That was my point. We don’t have that here in far too many places from unvaccinated and often in vaccinated.
You shouldn’t be able to fly, get on a train you name it without being vaccinated. No restaurants, bars, clubs, concerts, sporting events, conferences, museums etc…
Agree, Hadi. And, frankly, it’s not that complicated.
Dr. Jha agrees with you as well. If we want the pandemic to end, we’ve got to do better than 40th in the world in being fully vaccinated. https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1442328971920674823
12 school bus drivers have died of Covid-19 in Georgia alone in the last month or so. https://www.gpb.org/news/2021/09/27/mounting-covid-deaths-fuel-school-bus-drivers-fears
According to a USA Today article, dozens of school bus drivers have died of Covid-19 in the past month in 10 states.
Long before the Delta wave – was reported in March 2021 – 110 school bus drivers nationwide had died of Covid-19. Yet another example of frontline workers (first responders, healthcare workers, grocery store clerks, public transit workers) dying in very high numbers. This is why they all should be getting a booster; at least offered one.
School bus drivers in MA were not considered close contact. I don’t know about other states, but wrap your head around that for a few Minutes.
Covid in Kids is usually not caught until they are in class …if it is caught in school. If it isn’t in school, those kids then pass by the driver and sit on the bus for who knows how long on them way home.
Again….they are not considered close contacts.
We have an amazing driver. Amazing is really not enough. When we were fighting to find vaccine slots and I found one, I let our lady know. I wasn’t going anywhere and she needed it far more than I.
I’m sorry but there is so so so so so much wrong with our approach to schools and kids and this is one of the horrific results of that failure
C-19 for 9-28 is ready.