Tuesday September 28 2021 Forecast (7:22AM)

104 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

A cold front will push through the WHW forecast area today, bringing shower activity and perhaps a few thunderstorms. The activity will be most widespread in CT, RI, and southern MA which are also the areas that run the higher risk of any thunder. This front pushes offshore later tonight and introduces the coolest air mass of the early autumn season so far which peaks in coolness Thursday before moderating a little later in the week. Upper level low pressure brings the chance of a few showers to the region later Wednesday into Thursday before high pressure supplies dry weather. Look for increasing ocean swells / surf and rip current risk by the end of this forecast period as a result of distant offshore Hurricane Sam.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers, favoring southern MA southward, with a chance thunderstorms especially south of I-90. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with additional showers South Coast, otherwise clearing. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix with a pop up shower possible. Highs 61-68. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers during the morning. Partly cloudy with an isolated shower possible during the afternoon. Highs 58-65, coolest higher elevations central MA / southwestern NH. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 interior areas, 45-52 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)

High pressure centered mainly to the north of New England should be close enough to make dry weather dominant, but a couple of areas of low pressure to the south need to be watched, and one may be close enough for a rainy interlude about October 4 before another threatens later in the period. Temperatures near normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)

The same general pattern should be in place with high pressure having a tendency to be near and north of the region while areas of low pressure to the south and disturbances to the west have to be watched. The idea remains to lean dry but know that the door is open for wet weather intrusions. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

104 thoughts on “Tuesday September 28 2021 Forecast (7:22AM)”

  2. Over a long lifetime, a hurricane’s intensity can ebb and flow and I feel like Sam has been a somewhat extreme example of this. A day or 2 ago, it maxed at a very intense hurricane, seemed to really weaken (pressure went from 938 to almost 968 mb) pretty quickly and now, its satellite presentation looks improved again, pressure down to 954mb and recon finding fairly high flight level winds.

    Been a fun hurricane to watch.

    1. he he Scattered to numerous showers, favoring southern MA southward, with a chance thunderstorms especially south of I-90.

      You know, I was only mentioning the SPC and not WHW. 🙂

  17. More southern end of this line of storms looks the most intense.
    Mansfield, stoughton, Brockton now, If it holds to the coast, Tom better crawl under his desk. 🙂

    1. Just got waxed here in Sharon but it was a quick mover. Not much thunder and lightning but torrential rain.

  18. We just got warned here. I briefly heard some thunder, and it’s really dark out, but nothing much is here yet. Watching radar, though.

  22. Southern intense cell looks to pass through Rockland, Norwell and then onto Scituate or close to that line. Looks like Tom can come out from under his desk.

  23. Good deal of thunder and lightning here. Some nearby strikes with really loud thunder.

    Interesting morning so far. 🙂

  24. House has been shaking here for over an hour and MyRadarPro sent me a message one minute ago saying I had lightning in my area. Hmmmmmm

  25. Under going a cell split. action North and South of my area with not much happening in between. 🙂
    0.06 inch here so far.

    1. There’s still a lot of crap downstream. My guess is the answer is no, but we shall see how fast this can move on.

      Cells are moving rapidly, but ever so slowly is the whole area
      drifting Southward. However, Down stream there is ANAFRONT activity. (With anafronts, precipitation may occur to the rear of the front)

      So it could still be an off and on wet afternoon.

  29. Example number 5,000 that the atmosphere is just a little more charged than expected. Got to be the well above normal ocean temps, adding in a bit more humidity than expected to make these storms a bit more north, definitely more coverage and probably more intense than expected. I love Earth at +1.5 C 🙁

  30. Thank you, TK.

    You’re the current Giancarlo Stanton of the weather world. Yesterday, you said we’d have morning rain – which was not in the forecast of most mets – and here we are with rain. This happens more often than not with your forecasts, especially in the latest streak. Perhaps Stanton is not a good analogy, as he’s a streaky hitter. Wade Boggs is a better example: Steady, sure, and hardly ever strikes out.

      1. So far so good, I think, but we had some very heavy downpours this morning so I’d wager I lost some seed. I’m gonna throw more down where I saw some puddles and add more peat moss.

    1. You topped out 0.39. I’m enjoying it also. My oldest lost her pup of 16 years yesterday and the weather matches my mood.

  35. I am sure I’ve seen this before but sure dont recall when

    Airport Weather Warning
    for Suffolk County

    Issued by National Weather Service
    Boston, MA
    10:54 AM EDT Tue, Sep 28, 2021

    The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued an

    * Airport Weather Warning for Ground Operations at: Boston Logan Airport

    * Until 100 PM EDT.

    * The Following Weather Hazards Are Expected: Cloud to ground lightning within 10 miles of the airport.

    * At 1050 AM EDT, A cluster of thunderstorms were reported over Millis, or near Natick, moving east at 30 mph. Cloud to ground lightning is expected at the terminal with these storms.

  37. Woken up at 9:30 by heavy rain, so I had to close all the windows. Went back to bed, woken up a little after 11:00 by very loud thunder. Looks like the rain is done now – 0.80″ in the rain gauge.

    1. Unfortunately I didn’t think it was necessary to close my windows before I left this morning as I listened to the tv mets this morning who forecasted the rain to arrive not until afternoon, and even at that, not particularly heavy. I’ll probably have some wet stuff to clean up when I return home from work later.

      I forgot about TK’s thoughts from yesterday. Oh well.

      1. I work 6:30pm-2:30am M-F nights, but it’s an hour drive, so by the time I get home and get to bed it’s close to 4:00am. I usually sleep until 11am-Noon (unless the cats have other ideas).

        I’ve been on this shift for 7 years now, so I am well adjusted to it. On Saturday and Sunday nights I don’t go to bed until 1-2am, so that I don’t get too far off my normal schedule.

          1. We have 2. Our black cat (named Friday) turns 9 this month. We also have a gray kitten (named Thunder), who will be 6 months old next weekend.

        2. Thanks going for a big promotion within my department. With 3-11 or 11- 7 option & both same pay but I think 11-7 has more flexibility for my families situation.

      2. I was out and about trying to coordinate curbside pickup between thunderstorms. I failed miserably as thunder arrived just as I did. I have the sense West Sutton received more rain than we did. We only went from 0.39 to 0.46 in this round but the rain was torrential there

        I was chatting with an member of the farm family a few days ago. I feel badly if they have inside customers when I arrive. She told me that they are grateful for curbside orders. Truly amazing family owned farm. I always have an audio book going in the car so have told the amazing staff there never to hurry. The farm offers an amazing view and I could sit and enjoy for hours.

  42. So, several of the forecasts yesterday called for a “few showers” in the Boston area. Well, this is definitely not a few showers. This is a rainy day, with a couple of breaks in the action thus far.

    1. The tv mets were clearly way off for today. Not one of their better forecasts. Usually one of them gets it right, or at least in the ballpark.

      Of course WHW spot on as usual! 🙂

      1. True. We’re lucky with TK. I know next to nothing about weather, but feel I have learned a few things from TK. It’s because his forecasts explain. And, the few times he gets it wrong he explains that, too.

        I do like the mets we have in the Boston area, for the most part. Even mets who have weekend duty, or do back-up, like Jaisol Martinez, do a good job. Jaisol is from Texas and studied meteorology at Texas A&M. She seems to enjoy forecasting fickle New England weather.

  43. I am happy that we are now going towards the Caribbean and Gulf Coast hurricane season, drastically decreases MDR threats to the eastern Caribbean climatologically once we get into October. The two coming off of Afrika looks to go out to sea or be an open wave as it approaches the Islands. Looking good so far this season. Its kind of like last season in which the NE Caribbean got two disorganized weak systems with beneficial rainfall and then is quiet for us the rest of the season. Lets hope it stays that way 🙂

  46. CPC basically likes near to slightly above normal temps and somewhat below normal precip for 6-10 / 8-14.

    Before that we’ll be having a string of “blue squares”. 😉

  47. Lightning hit the early learning school in Sutton this am. Everyone is fine. But they had a stay in place order during the period and it of course rattled everyone

    1. Pouring right now. We’ll go over 1 inch for the day for sure once all is said and done. perhaps even 1.10 or more.

  50. So thanks to NHC’s new policy of naming everything that occupies space in the atmosphere, they’ve ruined the ability to use the Greek alphabet because of reaching it so easily and then having to retire a storm in it, so now there is “list 1” and “list 2” for each season. Any bets on which year we exhaust all the names on both lists for the first time? I give it a decade, tops. 😉

    On an actual more serious note, get ready for the autumn air invasion! 😉 Some people won’t be able to sleep with the windows open the next few nights!

    I actually wasn’t kidding about the new second list instead of the Greek alphabet. Here’s a link: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/supplemental-list-of-tropical-cyclone-names-raiv

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