Thursday AM Update

180 Comments

7:43AM

This is a slight tweak of previous forecast details. Most of the discussion below is the same as from the previous entry. Tweaking snowfall amounts/indications down slightly for both events for now.

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Cold high pressure retreats to the Canadian Maritimes today. Weak low pressure will move across New England tonight and make an attempt to redevelop just offshore. This feature will produce snow, but amounts will be limited due to rapid movement and location of low pressure redevelopment. Another cold high pressure area will move across northern New England and southeastern Canada Friday. The next in a parade of low pressure areas will pass south of New England on Saturday. This low will have more moisture to work with and more snow is possible from it than the first system.

Looking ahead to Sunday, the weather for the Patriots playoff game against the Baltimore Ravens is expected to be partly to mostly cloudy with a temperature starting out around 34 and ending around 31.

Another weather system will arrive Monday, and the early call on this one is for warmer air aloft meaning rain, but lingering cold air at the surface possibly leading to some icing. Plenty of time to worry about this one.

Boston Area Forecast…

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy.Isolated snow showers may move in from the ocean this afternoon. High 27-32. Wind E around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow accumulating up to around an inch, isolated 2-inch amounts possible.  Low 20-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind W increasing 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH.
Yu
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow with a few inches possible. Low 24. High 33.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 25. High 39.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Ice to rain. Low 28. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 35. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 24. High 38.

180 thoughts on “Thursday AM Update”

  5. Completely agree with TK on both events. Not much different thinking from my thoughts last night.

    Tom mentioned in a comment I was reading that he suspected this was a pattern shift. I don’t really think so. What we have had is some minor events make their way through during the brief periods of cold and don’t rotate through on the heals of a day where temps are +10 or more above normal. We have yet to have a pattern that supports traditional winter storm tracks up the east coast nor have we seen a pattern that supports strong low pressure development off the mid-Atlantic coast. A matter of fact my thought is Monday/Tuesday the region gets a warm storm that is mostly rain and probably washes away any snow we do get over the next 72 hours.

    1. Ch7 is saying for saturday not much for boston 1-3 and 3-6 on that other side of 495 north as it will be colder. Also said wind will not be an issue. Tonights storm should be in around 7pm. Ch25 is saying wide spread 1-3 for tonight. Saturday storm first thing am could mix in boston depending on track. Areas that stay all snow could pick up 6inches done by evening.

    1. Hadi if it pulls more north I don’t think 2-4 for boston, more south yes. Just my guess but I bet we get involved in mixing. I also agree for next week as I believe Monday is an all day rain event.

  8. The NAM has a solid 5-8″ snow event for Saturday, but probably overdone. I would take the path between the GFS and NAM, so still sticking with 3-6″.
    We’ll see how tonight pans out, I don’t think the dry air will be much of an issue as I saw a few snow flurries this morning with the onshore wind. The onshore wind should continue through the event, which would mean eastern areas have the best chance to seeing the highest amounts.

  9. Can’t argue with the snow totals, what I do not agree with is any mixing in Boston, probably confined to south coast areas and the cape.

    1. Channel 7 had lower amounts for the coastline for Monday night’s event, which didn’t verify…
      Boston won’t see any mixing from Saturday’s event.

      1. I thought Dillon (sp?) on 7 had said rain for Monday only. I was half asleep so may have heard it incorrectly.

  10. Hadi I think that Coating to 2″ tonight. I don’t even really see the potential for 3″ anywhere from this one.

    2-4″ on Saturday. I think the 6″ potential in SNE is gone for that one. Stays cold and trends south.

  12. Longshot – here are the guesses for the inch of ice on JP pond

    John 12/15/2011
    Scott 12/20/2011
    Coastal 12/23/2011
    Mark 12/27/2011
    JimmyJames 1/2/2012
    Philip 1/6/2012
    Hadi 1/7/2012
    Rainshine 1/18/2012
    Old Salty 1/20/2012
    Longshot 1/25/2012
    Vicki 1/29/2012
    Tom 1/5/2013
    Retrac 1/13/2013

  13. Thanks, TK.

    Welcome, Captain. And welcome to anyone else new on the blog.

    ‘Though we haven’t received a whole lot of snow as yet in the Boston area so far this winter – it is nice to see that winter has finally arrived with the very cold temps. and some snow events.

  14. John if we continue to trend a little south as it did last night no way rain or a mix comes close, we just end up on the low end of the snow.

  15. Much has changed in one Day. Nam has done a complete turn around.

    We’ll see what today’s runs bring. Looks like I was big time wrong!!

  16. OS I think your plans on Saturday had an impact:) I just want some dam snow to play in!!! All I care about 🙂

    1. Yes, A bit of wishful thinking on my part, plus TOO much trust in the NAM.
      Should have listened to the good people at the Gray NWS office! Lol

      Oh Well, live and learn.

      btw, the 0Z Euro wants to give us a good 6 inches or so. 0Z GFS is quite low
      on qpf. Waiting on the 12Z NAM.

      One other note: Where are the dynamics on this Sat system?
      There is virtually nothing on the 500 MB chart????
      What is this, some potent warm air advection?

      I am wondering if anyone could comment on reason for this much
      qpf from this innocuous looking system.

  17. 12Z NAM is in.

    qpf for Sat is somewhere between .25 and a bit less than .5
    Not very impressive at all.

    Why is the Euro so robust compared to the NAM and GFS?

  19. QPF for 0Z EURO is .37 for KBOS, so not much different. The trend on this one is south and in the end it could deliver a whole lot of nothing at this rate.

    1. Right now, not impressed with either system.
      Don’t expect much at all tonight.

      And, Saturday’s event seems to be getting wimpier by the minute. lol

      We won’t get a potent system until it is a RAINORAMA!

  26. My son gets to enjoy another snow event in Chicago (WSW posted for 6+”) and he knows how jealous I am! I’m still going to keep my fingers crossed for a little something on Saturday. It’s looks to be anyone’s guess w/ the models all over the place.

  27. It was never going to be a big storm on Saturday to begin with. I might be high with my call of 3-5 inland and 2-4 for the coast. I would not be surprised if there are winter weather advisories posted for the interior on Saturday.

      1. hahahaha – my opinion also – I actually thought it was a big deal when I saw a 10′ x 6′ patch of snow on the beach the other morning!

  30. Noaa is saying that it will regenerate into a larger storm and last from about 7am saturday through 3 -5 am sunday whats up with that when all the local mets are saying a day storm.

  33. NY, Long Island, PA look to do better then us at this point. Just 24 hours ago they were all rain!!! I have had it with this winter. Cold air and our storm fizzles!! 10 on the UGH meter for me!!!

    1. So Hadi, Can you please tell us how you really feel? lol

      NWS office at Taunton is still calling for Advisory level snow and “possibly”
      warning level. There discussion is lengthy, so I won’t post here, but you
      should check it out. Perhaps you will feel better? Lol

  35. 12z GFS is a general .15-.25 of QPF tonight from Hartford to Springfield to Worcester to Boston

    It is generally about the same of Saturday.

  36. I have no doubt that TK will address the icing issue for Sunday night later, but I want to say that it could very well be quite widespread including Boston for a time as well.

    Any weekend snow on the ground should be gone by days end on Monday…if not by afternoon. I hope any snows for February can stay on the ground for at least 2+ days so we can look outside our windows and see a wintertime landscape for awhile. We have to take “baby steps” for a complete pattern change.

    I am getting the impression that after this weekend, the rest of the month looks warm again. What about the OFA snowstorm for the 30-31st?

  38. Phillip I don’t see an icing issue at all on Saturday for Metro Boston.

    I don’t think this forecast is hard one. It is the model jumping with every run that kills people. We talked about it a bit on the blog yesterday or maybe the day before. Weak dynamics, lack of any forcing mechanism, trend would more south, colder and lighter QPF. It is the rapid rush to put on amounts 4 days before that gets people all in a tailspin.

    The only potential for icing I see is a little on early Monday morning.

  39. Phillip, I read quickly, I see you wrote Sunday, and not Saturday for Icing. My apologies. Confused it with another post from earlier.

    Agree on some icing early Monday Morning, but do not see it as significant or Widespread at this time.

  40. Coastal snow flurries starting along the south shore coast. Vicki, if you are still down here you should be seeing them.

    2. I read from bottom up – I just looked out the window and did a little dance and then came here to say I’m seeing flurries!!!!

    1. I just came here to say I see it – yay

      This isn’t supposed to continue is it? I didn’t hear anything about a messy afternoon commute?

      1. Harvey last night at 11PM indicated that there would be coastal
        flurries most of the afternoon. Didn’t expect much from it, though.

          1. Looking out of my office window, I see LOW clouds streaming in off of the Ocean. Suspect
            we’ll see flurries in the City before too long.

            1. Oddly it’s been very light and sporadic right on the coast but as I look across the south river into Marshfield it looks to be heavier – not sure though

  43. Henry Margusity on his morning video blog said that when it snows in Seattle, it snows in NYC. Does this analogy actually have meteorological validity?

    Also Henry is now very impressed in the upcoming pattern for February and March for snows.

    1. I do not understand HM sometimes. If anything, snow in Seattle, which is a rare occurrence, indicates a very anomalous pattern, while snow in NYC (like in Boston during the winter) indicates a normal pattern. Moreover, dry patterns in Seattle (which are relatively infrequent) are almost always associated with wet patterns in the Northeast. if anything, the weather here and in Seattle are inversely related.

  46. 12z…………flat…….flat…….flat!

    One heck of a southerly flow ahead of that storm for beg. of Feb.

      1. So we have a chance to double Boston’s Snowfall amount by 7:00am on Sunday? That’s exciting to me! I wouldn’t take any snow falling from the sky this year for granted, even a flurry!

      1. sorry OS – didn’t see your post – when I checked yesterday on the Taunton NWS site it totals 2.9 – unless we got some overnight??

        These are dates and totals – if it’s added incorrectly you can blame excel 🙂

        10/30/11 0.60
        10/29/11 0.40
        1/10/12 0.50
        1/16/12 1.20
        1/17/12 0.20

  50. Let’s see what the 12 Z EURO has to say, I think maybe a slight trend north will happen this afternoon 🙂

  51. By the way, I do think there has been a more significant pattern shift this week than in previous weeks. It’s not as if we’re into full-fledged winter mode (probably won’t ever be this year), but: a. We’re getting some cold days on a more consistent basis, with snow, however little it may be; b. The projected warm-up next week is not nearly as dramatic or extended as previously forecast. I still don’t see much happening this year in terms of snow, but at least it feels a little bit like winter outside. The same cannot be said for Northwestern Europe, by the way. To illustrate, flowers are coming up in Holland, ones that usually only appear in late February at the earliest.

  55. tonights system less than 1 inch in northeast mass
    1-3 inches else where
    saturdays storm i am not sure what is going to happen. because some models slow this thing down while others keep it moving.
    slower = more snow
    faster =less snow
    right now looks like a mix for the cape and islands south coast
    a wet snow for boston and the coast into southeast mass
    with a fluffier snow north and west of boston. not sure of accumulations i guess we will see what they say friday

    1. I don’t see that. Looks about the same to me. Perhaps and inch or 2.

      re: Saturday’s event

      Now looks like about 3 inches total for Boston, a bit more to the South.

      Just my opinion.

        1. perhaps a little bit more. Like Boston gets 2.5 and Pembroke 3 or Boston 3 and Pembroke 3.5 or 4.
          Something along those lines. We shall see.

  57. EURO still has similar numbers for Saturday but even colder temps, maybe a little higher ratios? Maybe JMA can give us the QPF from it when he can!

  59. I have a friend traveling from Wellesley to Newton on Saturday evening early. She is worried about travel conditions. Should there be a problem or is it still too iffy to know. Thank you 🙂

    1. With the intensity of any snow not all that great, assuming that the
      Public Works Depts in both towns are at least somewhat responsive, with
      a little sanding/salting, should not be a problem. Of course any negligence
      on their part and it could be a different story.

      1. thanks Old Salty – I copied and pasted your response since the couple with get a kick out of your last sentence 🙂

  60. Saturday storm is going to be to far south which i originally said about 4 days ago and then changed my mind yesterday and i guess i might be right

      1. While that (going further south) may be bad for Saturday’s storm, I think its indicative of a change in the coming weeks. Whereas, up to now, everything has generally been further north or west than projected, I think the next several weeks see most things further south and east than projected……. And for that occasional inside runner that goes well west, dislodging the cold surface air inland is going to be nearly impossible. Winter has begun. 🙂

  61. The NAM did not see the “high” up north as strong as modeled, that was the issue. Its much stronger on today’s runs.

    1. He’s driving me crazy with that war drum. He’s going to run out of calendar soon. (I do like watching him though)

      When Andersen and Lundberg Bite is when I’ll jump on board.

  63. ECWMF spills out between .25 and .30 region wide on Saturday. About .10 for tonight. Of course I do not like the ECWMF inside 36 hours and rarely use it as reliable tool during that time frame. Very warm on Monday, portrays and all rain scenario with no icing.

  65. The way the marshland is shaped and how big it is allows wind to pick up moisture and create ice on the trees and sometimes if the right conditions light snow that does not accumulate but it can last for a long time.

    2. hahahahaha – I just laughed out loud – I think the snow gods are afraid to go over your three inches!!

  67. A little far out for HRRR/RUC, but if it extrapolate it out about 0.1-0.2 tonight.

    SREF is about the same tonight, maybe a hair less, a more general .01 . A little more robust on Saturday. About .3-.4 Its ensembles are still polluted by the NAM overdo.

    Our proprietary model (which I like a lot, but I am a little biased) is going with a general 1-2″ tonight and a a general 2-3″ on Saturday.

    My forecast remains unchanged. Coating to 2″ tonight and 2-4″ on Saturday with a general 3″ the expected average amount from that system.

    1. If you add on the snow ratios, 2-4″ seems reasonable, especially in eastern Mass where the air is a bit more moist.

        1. I’m still thinking only 1-3, with the higher range of that rather isolated. It just seems too progressive and the air may be too dry for all of that precipitation to actually occur…

  71. Good afternoon everyone! Crazy day in TK’s world (I’ll spare you the unexciting details). Reading comments, etc. and updating the blog before 6PM (hoping the actual update is out by 5 but we’ll see). And why did I just refer to myself as TK in the 3rd person? Well, I said it was a crazy day.

    What do you call a windy weatherman?

    Answer: A Meteorologust. 😛

    1. 18Z NAM qpf for Saturday: Now is this .5 inch OR Between .5 and .75 inch?
      These charts are not all that clear. I believe that it is a range between each
      cut off. Extrapolate a bit and I would make a guess that Boston’s qpf is
      .6 inch. With fluff factor, that could be 7,8 or even 9 inches of snow???

      Again, this is the 18Z run. It is most likely OVERCOOKED some.

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F19%2F2012+18UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p36&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=060&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  74. The 18z NAM does have the max vort passing through SNE, the 12z NAM had nothing on the 500mb. The increased QPF’s aren’t so random it seems.
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20120119%2F18%2Fnam_namer_054_500_vort_ht.gif&fcast=054&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&cycle=01%2F19%2F2012+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

  75. This happened last year on a storm that trended around 36 hours before on the 18Z NAM. Not sure what to make expect that the high is decipted differently on that run.

    Also keep in mind that JMA always tells us how overdone the NAM is on QPF 🙂

  76. Pete said should not be a big deal for Boston tonight 1/2 inch to 1 inch. He said start time around 10 I have been hearing after 7 tonight.

      1. Charlie trust me it was needed in Boston I’m not kidding. Did you not hear that the state police ordered the southeast expressway down during that storm in both directions to salt. And not sure what they will do I am off till Monday.

      1. I’m not that excited for a little snow, I like the big snows like over 6 inches, in a winter like this 1-3 inch snow events r like blockbusters, to have every bit of it be gone 6 hrs later, it’s been a very interesting winter but at same time very boring. I suspect we wake up to a dusting to an inch only again to be gone by 10am, take it easy 🙂

    2. The GFS is still acting as if its November. There may be a 40F day next week, but I think most days will end up chilly.

  78. Paraphrasing: Sunday…mostly sunny with a chance of snow and sleet.

    I just love the NWS wording. 😛

  80. Thats an intense little band of snow about to pass through Buffalo. Almost looks like a line of thundershowers, except with snow.

    1. From the NWS at Buffalo:

      A SNOWY START TO THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
      SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
      COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL RESULT IN
      BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
      REGION. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
      FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF WINTER WEATHER
      ADVISORIES…AS OPPOSED TO THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES.

      I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if that weren’t Thunder Snow!

        1. It is crazy John.

          Thanks OS……is that line what we should be watching for tonight ? Is that, in essence, tonights snow burst ?

          1. I doubt we’ll ever see that. I think our snow is the lighter stuff out ahead of that line.

            Perhaps TK can chime in on this?

            1. Always room for a surprise, but I don’t think it would reach this area with that much intensity.

            1. Yes, I think south of Boston may have the highest amounts….but, I also think the higher amounts be a little less than 5-8.

    1. If he is basing on the NAM, those figures make no sense to me.
      He must be using some sort of Bouchard “Blend”!

        1. John. Ahhhh hemmmm. So far every time someone says hes way off. He’s been right. I know sooner or later he’ll be wrong but I say this every time. You knew I’d say that didn’t you:)

  83. I wonder what impact this snow on the ground, with a low already approaching from the west and southwest, will have on Sunday’s weather and the game.

    I think with snowcover, the cold air will hold strong and stubborn. I wonder if a fog bowl is coming, with a NE wind, and cold air trapped underneath mild air riding above it. I hope not !!

    1. NWS is talking about over running precip For Sunday Night.
      I wonder what the weather will like for the game itself???

    2. There won’t be a bit of snow left in that stadium if they can help it. It almost has its own environment.

  84. 4:34 PM from NWS at Taunton:

    SAT INTO SAT NIGHT…
    POTENTIAL FOR NEAR WINTER STORM LVL SNOWFALLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    THE CWA THIS PERIOD DEPENDENT ON THE ULTIMATE STRUCTURE OF FAST
    MOVING ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES

    They have a rather lengthy discussion, so I only posted that brief headline.

    I presume that warning level snow is 6 inches? And advisory level is 3 inches?
    Something like that I’m sure.

    For this season, Saturday will be a BLOCK BUSTER EVENT!!!

    1. -6 inches of snow or more in 12 hours or 8 inches of snow or more in 24 hours warning criteria.
      -2 to 5 inches of snow in 12 hours. advisory criteria
      something that was called a hievy snow warning ( had not seen this warning poseted by national weather service since 2005 means 12 inches or higher with in a 12 hour period and precipitation as all snow no mixing

  85. 18Z GFS for Saturday is about what the 12Z was. NOT impressive and no where
    near the NAM.

    Remember, it was an 18Z run.

    Let’s see what tonight’s 0Z runs have to say.

    1. As much as I like to down the GFS, it has done better than the NAM on these types of events the last couple winters at this time range. NAM is very likely overdone.

    1. I wish there was a non FB link to that map so those without FB could see it. In my opinion, it’s a mess.

      Rain to 8 inches over no distance in NJ. No zone for anything between 4 and 8 over PA and other areas, 8-12 (too high) over Long Island but 2-4 over Cape Cod with no mixing accounting for the lower forecast amounts. Not following this graphic.

    1. They went back and forth depending on the synoptic setup and the time period before the event.

      I’ve been in contact with a few of my former coworkers during the day today (I trust all of them quite a lot when it comes to forecasting) and so far not one of them has gone over 6 inches for a top end amount and even those that got to 6 have stated that it may be generous for a forecast.

  88. Harvey said after these storms we will go into quiet pattern to finish month, and finish above again temp wise. pike south 3-6 saturday. 50 Tuesday. Quiet snow wise.

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